Market Talk / July 9 - 15

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday-Weekly
Early Edition
July 09, 2006​

[Some mice will do anything!]​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak..................................Short cycle averages turning up. Lube off highs. Tension with Iran eases.

Con-Yak.................................3M sticks Dow, missiles strike market pond, and socks spin in lube! Vestors worry about growth, and inflation, and rates.

Jester-Yak..............................Yea, and we should have stayed in the G-fund! Didn't someone tell you two that between 11-1 to 4-30 are the best 6 months*?

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at.............1,265.48, dn -4.72 for the week.
Volume (CMF) (money flow)........-0.127, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)...........-0.855, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal)........77.38, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold...[70]....51.52....[30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at................74.09, up +0.16, for the week.
Oil Markers..............................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff..........................Yellow / Yellow [Doodles +2-3 / Lube > 70].

Tin Box:
Position...................................100% socks.
Stops [$SPX]............................Alert: 1267 [broken]. Trail: 1254.

TSP (week ending)......G=11.44..F=10.61..C=13.87..S=16.96..I=19.36
....(1 week past)........G=11.43..F=10.60..C=13.91..S=17.21..I=19.39
....(2 week past)........G=11.42..F=10.54..C=13.63..S=16.62..I=18.54
....(3 week past)........G=11.41..F=10.58..C=13.70..S=16.58..I=18.46
....(4 week past)........G=11.39..F=10.65..C=13.71..S=16.75..I=18.58

* Stock Trader's Almanac 2006

 

[Wizard]

Birchtree
Club TSP Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Gainesville, Florida, USA
Posts: 1,815


For instance, average hourly earnings rose eight cents, or 0.5% to $16.70 from May and were up 3.9% from a year earlier, the fastest year to year growth since June 2001. So what, we are talking $0.08/hour. The combination of slowing growth and rising prices is typical for an economy in the middle of a business cycle. Inflation tends to peak after growth. This data reflects price increases of the past, rather than some new independent source of inflation. I'm waiting on some good new about our deficit reduction campaigne. Let this BULL run. Snort.

---------------------------
Perhaps you have not noticed the average work week has dropped from 35.7 to 33.9 hours during this period (5%) - so wages are ACTUALLY decreasing.

Don't be confused by the "fuzzy math".

 

[Wizard]

The trend is your friend or worse enemy.

Lower highs and lower lows.

 

[robo]

robo,

I would like to know or (anyone can suggest) where is the best way to invest (allocation/diversified wise) outside of TSP with consistent 10% annual returns and relatively conservative.
Thanks
Ocean

Ocean,

I know of no such place. My average is based on some years 18%, some years 5% others 23%. I'm talking about taking a average of all the years. The key is not to have years with big loses. That's why we all read this board and try and Market Time and Trend Trade. I don't try and beat the Market just avoid big loses. Some years the Market was up over 30% and I only made 14%. Other years the Market was down big and I only made 5%.

The Wizard is correct in his post above. This market is Trending down, and if you are currently invested keep the mouse close by. This thing could head down in a hurry. The point capital preservation!

I bought the S&P Friday during the day trending down at 72.59 a share. Current price 72.84 Symbol is SSO
http://www.amex.com/

I also bought QQQQ's @ 68.00 Symbol is QLD Current Price 68.27.

This is a high risk trade and I will sell if things head down to far. My point is sometimes we hit home runs, other times we strike-out, but the most important thing is not to ride a bad trade down to far.

I followed Bob Brinker’s sell signal in 2000 and didn't have big loses in 2000 thru 2002. Many Buy and Hold got hurt bad back them. You had to wait weeks in TSP before your IFT was processed. Anyway, Bob gave his sell signal when the S&P was around 1500 in 2000 and his buy signal when the S&P was around 800 in 2003. He has made me money.


The Board goal: We do this by allocating our TSP assets into the funds which have the highest probability for capital preservation and greatest possibility for increased returns.

I also pay several professional folks to help me make investment choices. The leaders on this board are beating me this year, but I'm still positive for the year. I wish it was more, but the point is capital preservation when the Bear is after your money.

If you can ride the Bulls and avoid the Bear Markets you could average over 10% easily.

Most excellent article from Spaf about this subject.

Thanks Spaf!

10% - consistant - conservative
The current yak!
http://www.cinchouse.com/finances2/dollar41.htm


Avoid the Big loses!

Good Trading/Investing

http://www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns3.html

I get his service and bought Friday on his recommendation. I hope it's a winner!!
http://timing.typepad.com/timer/

 

[robo]

Robo,
We're in the DOG DAYS! It takes a lot of begging to get the scraps!...

Spaf,
You got that right my friend. Tough Market, with many things to worry about.

Keeping stops close. A comment from a TA: Tighten sell stops on all positions, even commodities. The market may be close to a huge slide to the downside.

 

[Birchtree]

Techmeister and Friends,

Why always so bearish? Can't you see over the valley to the next horizon? Perhaps my 100% C fund allocation is too aggressive for your comfort zone. We are in a combination of slowing growth and some rising prices. This presents a dilemma for the Fed, which must decide whether to let the economy be and risk an upward spiraling of prices, or fight inflation with higher interest rates and risk a sharper downturn. I'm positioned to let the market come to me.

We are now in the 12th straight quarter of double-digit gains for corporate earnings. The Street is looking for 12.3%, versus 14.9% in the firsy quarter. But even these great earnings so far have not been enough of a catalyst to get the market higher. But there is better news on the way - the budget deficit is being reduced because of tax revenues and the trade deficit is being reduced because of a competitive dollar and increased exports with a reduction in imports. This leads me to be very positive. Snort, snort.

 

[ayla]

I just googled for terms such as "recession" and "2007" and gots lots of hits from credible sounding sources (whatever that is). I also googled for "recession" and "2006" and the same thing. There are many many people predicting a recession either starting the end of this year or the first part of 2007. The predictions are for a global recession from what I've read.

That said, and given the fact that I keep hearing how the market is forward thinking (as much as 6 months) and always goes in the direction it thinks the economy will go, seems like one could draw the conclusion that we might start getting some market downturns as a result of the recession predictions for later on in the year. Especially considering the fact that this IS summertime, a time already when returns are not traditionally high.

I'm not seeing a lot to be optimistic about. Also, I'm not seeing any way to really have a crystal ball into this process. As a newbie, this still seems like basic gambling to me. It's fun but still gambling.

Oh well, I haven't left the casino yet.

 

[Wizard]

the budget deficit is being reduced because of tax revenues and the trade deficit is being reduced because of a competitive dollar and increased exports with a reduction in imports.

07/06/2006 $8,409,418,269,166.84
12/30/2005 $8,170,424,541,313.62

Current account debt has risen $239B so far this year.

This is an average of nearly $40B per month. :nuts:

Maybe we define reduction differently. :blink:

 

[nnuut]

They think so huh?:notrust:

Strong earnings may buoy stocks
Inflation has investors rattled, but solid 2Q earnings and some positive guidance could lift investor spirits next week.
By Steve Hargreaves, Jessica Seid and Grace Wong, CNNMoney.com staff writers
July 9 2006: 10:30 AM EDT


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Concerns over inflation and a slowing economy are weighing on the minds of investors, but the start of earnings season on Monday could sound a positive note, as analysts call for double-digit growth in corporate profits.
Stocks finished in the red last week after a monthly employment report deepened concerns that inflation is rising while economic growth is slowing.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/07/07/markets/sun_lookahead/index.htm?cnn=yes

 

[ocean]

Thanks robo and Spaf's info on 10% consistent returns.

BTW robo, I unstood the market may be heading down. What did Bob Brinker say about the market in the near future?

Ocean

 

[ocean]

Oops, I missed to thank Ticked. Thanks Ticked about the 10% returns info.

Ocean

 

[The_Technician]

Techmeister and Friends,

Why always so bearish? Can't you see over the valley to the next horizon? Perhaps my 100% C fund allocation is too aggressive for your comfort zone. We are in a combination of slowing growth and some rising prices. This presents a dilemma for the Fed, which must decide whether to let the economy be and risk an upward spiraling of prices, or fight inflation with higher interest rates and risk a sharper downturn. I'm positioned to let the market come to me.

We are now in the 12th straight quarter of double-digit gains for corporate earnings. The Street is looking for 12.3%, versus 14.9% in the firsy quarter. But even these great earnings so far have not been enough of a catalyst to get the market higher. But there is better news on the way - the budget deficit is being reduced because of tax revenues and the trade deficit is being reduced because of a competitive dollar and increased exports with a reduction in imports. This leads me to be very positive. Snort, snort.

Birchy.....don't think that we are so bearish....just not so bullish all the time.....sometimes bullish sometimes bearish....you just bullish all the time and that's not good for the majority of the board.....you're losing money on the down days and you just say o'well.....well get with it by trading more frequently and make some big bucks with the rest of the mb....

This week has a good possibility to be a real eye opener....so this week I'm bearish.....and you, your still bullish....

 

[robo]

Thanks robo and Spaf's info on 10% consistent returns.

BTW robo, I unstood the market may be heading down. What did Bob Brinker say about the market in the near future?

Ocean

Ocean,

Bob doesn't worry about the day to day noise in the Market. He is a longer term investor like Birchtree. He still thinks the S&P is headed to 1350. His last buy signal was when the S&P was at 800 and remains on that signal.

He recommends adding shares of the S&P below or around 1250. The recent sell-off in his mind, was a excellent buying op and could be the 4 year cycle low. He thinks it was a healthy correction in this Bull Market. Still to be determined! Many would disagree with that, but we shall see on December 31st who got it right.

Again, this is his opinion not mine. I do respect his opinion or I wouldn't get his newsletter.

 

[Spaf]

My Financial Advisor:

Spaf: With the market down, isn't this a smart time to buy stocks?
FA:... Definitely! There has never been a better time!
Spaf: Which ones do you recommend?
FA:....I will sell you mine!

[Maybe, I should delete this post!..................................Spaf]

 

[The_Technician]

Well the morning rise up seems over...lets see how much she drops on the next downer ...

 

[tsptalk]

It's holding up pretty well, but I don't like that the Nasdaq and semiconductors are lagging.

 

[Birchtree]

Techmeister - Bubba Cluck,

You do it your way and I'll do it my way - that's what makes this country you are serving great. I knew 100% C fund was too aggressive for you. My moto is be right and sit tight - no need to pistol shoot to make dollars. My way suits me just fine and yes I'm BULLISH for the next three years come rain or shine. Snort.

 

[The_Technician]

Techmeister - Bubba Cluck,

You do it your way and I'll do it my way - that's what makes this country you are serving great. I knew 100% C fund was too aggressive for you. My moto is be right and sit tight - no need to pistol shoot to make dollars. My way suits me just fine and yes I'm BULLISH for the next three years come rain or shine. Snort.

Other than your poor name calling, I agree, you do it your way and I'll do it mine.....right from your own mouth....so there....

Today, we're at a cross over point and if the market doesn't respond at this point, staying in is a financial loss....for those that are in....personally, I don't like to lose.....

 

[TiCKed]

..deleted..

 

[blueskys4ever]

Techmeister and Friends,

Why always so bearish? Can't you see over the valley to the next horizon? Perhaps my 100% C fund allocation is too aggressive for your comfort zone. We are in a combination of slowing growth and some rising prices. This presents a dilemma for the Fed, which must decide whether to let the economy be and risk an upward spiraling of prices, or fight inflation with higher interest rates and risk a sharper downturn. I'm positioned to let the market come to me.

We are now in the 12th straight quarter of double-digit gains for corporate earnings. The Street is looking for 12.3%, versus 14.9% in the firsy quarter. But even these great earnings so far have not been enough of a catalyst to get the market higher. But there is better news on the way - the budget deficit is being reduced because of tax revenues and the trade deficit is being reduced because of a competitive dollar and increased exports with a reduction in imports. This leads me to be very positive. Snort, snort.

I wish I could share the optimism, but it seems to me that tax revenues are up mainly from the governments share of increased prices at the pumps. This leaves less disposable income in the hands of consumers. Walmart has recently reported that consumers are spending less on wants and more on needs. I trust Walmart data because it is both timely,accurate and free of politics. I want to see more disposabkle funds in the hands of consumers and less teid up in govermental coffers.

Iwould like to see this deficit data. Can you post it?