W
Wizard
Guest
Surprise miss.
SYNA missed by a mile. Down 10%.
That was up 5% during the day. Lots of unhappy folks now.
SYNA missed by a mile. Down 10%.
That was up 5% during the day. Lots of unhappy folks now.
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Market Talk / Jan. 15 - 21
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
coolhand
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 530
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Is there still room at the house party?
Coolhand,
That was a good article from Forbes - 62% of fund managers have a position in the Japan market - it will eventually be too crowded. I'm looking for a high of 24,000 before I start peeling off the top.
Mutual funds with a Japan mandate have been on a hot streak. The average U.S. mutual fund that invests in Japan was up 33.6% in 2005. Investors have put about $15 billion into Japan funds since the beginning of last August, doubling total assets in the niche during the period to about $67.2 billion from about $30 billion.
Even faced with events of this week, fund managers who are convinced that Japan's economy and corporations have turned the corner toward becoming healthy will maintain their allocations to Japan and perhaps even buy a little bit because the market is down. The market had risen so much in the past six months, that this downturn doesn't change the fact that it is still way up for people who believe the fundamentals are solid.
IMHO this may also happen to the slow boat C fund: ProFunds Ultra Japan fund has expanded from less than $50 million in early August to more than $350 million at the end of November. It soared 72% during the same period. I can see the potential now...S&P500 of 1285 times .72=925 points which takes the SPX to 2130. Whew!!! Please don't laugh, alright just a little.
Coolhand,
That was a good article from Forbes - 62% of fund managers have a position in the Japan market - it will eventually be too crowded. I'm looking for a high of 24,000 before I start peeling off the top.
Mutual funds with a Japan mandate have been on a hot streak. The average U.S. mutual fund that invests in Japan was up 33.6% in 2005. Investors have put about $15 billion into Japan funds since the beginning of last August, doubling total assets in the niche during the period to about $67.2 billion from about $30 billion.
Even faced with events of this week, fund managers who are convinced that Japan's economy and corporations have turned the corner toward becoming healthy will maintain their allocations to Japan and perhaps even buy a little bit because the market is down. The market had risen so much in the past six months, that this downturn doesn't change the fact that it is still way up for people who believe the fundamentals are solid.
IMHO this may also happen to the slow boat C fund: ProFunds Ultra Japan fund has expanded from less than $50 million in early August to more than $350 million at the end of November. It soared 72% during the same period. I can see the potential now...S&P500 of 1285 times .72=925 points which takes the SPX to 2130. Whew!!! Please don't laugh, alright just a little.
coolhand
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 530
I think the dollar play is also attracting investors into foreign equities. Now that the fed has conceded that it is nearing the end of its rate hikes, the focus may shift to our twin deficits and drive the dollar down.
However, the whole global economic picture is so complex right now that I would not hang my hat on it. But it sure is a good bet that those foreign equities will continue to shine for awhile yet.
However, the whole global economic picture is so complex right now that I would not hang my hat on it. But it sure is a good bet that those foreign equities will continue to shine for awhile yet.
mlk_man
Banned
- Reaction score
- 21
Wizard said:
Terrible report!!! http://money.cnn.com/2006/01/19/technology/motorola.reut/index.htm
Of course it was up over 4% today. Sell the news? Maybe we should all think about hedge funds at this point........any ideas Wiz?
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
- Reaction score
- 45
Daily Yak
Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.
Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak............ Socks high on chips and pills!
Other Yak.............. Lube on 4 month high + threats = cap for gains.
Doodles:
Socks................... S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at.............. 1285.04, up +7.11
Money flow............ +0.242, rising.
Stops................... Alert: 1282, Trailing: 1270.
Averages............... +8.07, declining.
Slow STO.............. 73.69, declining.
Overbought/sold..... [70] 59.4 [30]
Lube..................... Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at............... 67.19, up +0.94
Markers:................ <60 = ok, 60-64 = worry, >64 = critical.
Tea leaves:
Charts and Stuff...... Red.
The Tin Box:
Position.................. 75%G, 25%F.
The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Jan. 19, 2006
Daily Edition
Jan. 19, 2006
Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.
Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak............ Socks high on chips and pills!
Other Yak.............. Lube on 4 month high + threats = cap for gains.
Doodles:
Socks................... S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at.............. 1285.04, up +7.11
Money flow............ +0.242, rising.
Stops................... Alert: 1282, Trailing: 1270.
Averages............... +8.07, declining.
Slow STO.............. 73.69, declining.
Overbought/sold..... [70] 59.4 [30]
Lube..................... Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at............... 67.19, up +0.94
Markers:................ <60 = ok, 60-64 = worry, >64 = critical.
Tea leaves:
Charts and Stuff...... Red.
The Tin Box:
Position.................. 75%G, 25%F.
W
Wizard
Guest
Yield curve inverts big time in 7 trading days.
Fed fund rate and the 30 year will be just about even.
Fed fund rate and the 30 year will be just about even.
W
Wizard
Guest
DOW took out 10800 to the downsize.
DOW 11K seems so long ago.
"This is a massive headfake rally".
DOW 11K seems so long ago.
"This is a massive headfake rally".
W
Wizard
Guest
vectorman said:Now that the weak Bulls have been shaken out, if the Dow can finish today above 10,800, and if we don't have any bad news during the weekend, Monday may see a bounce. But for now it sure looks ugly.
Check out the last hour in Europe.
Cliff diving city.
mlk_man
Banned
- Reaction score
- 21
Iran moves foreign assets amid sanction threat
By Gareth Smyth and Najmeh Bozorgmehr in Tehran Fri Jan 20, 7:05 AM ET
Iran is moving foreign exchange out of European banks in advance of a possible referral to the United Nations Security Council and imposition of economic sanctions over its nuclear programme.
Ebrahim Sheibani, Central Bank governor, told reporters on Friday that Iran would "transfer the foreign exchange reserves wherever we consider expedient" and confirmed a shift from Europe had begun.
Mr Sheibani refused to give details or to say where the funds were going, although ISNA, the semi-official Iranian news agency, said the destination was southeast Asia.
On the internationall currency markets, the dollar fell briefly on Friday against the euro and safe-haven Swiss franc on the news .
"Clearly the Iran situation is the key focus at the moment, our view is that eventually it will settle down, but it's expected to rumble on for a while and so maybe at the margins slightly supportive of the safe-haven currencies like the Swiss Franc," Kevin Grice, senior economist at American Express Bank, said.
The Central Bank manages Iran's 'windfall' oil revenue, which could amount to around $25bn in the Iranian year ending in March 2006, and has kept an unknown amount in Europe.
"The nuclear issue and the chance of sanctions is the main reason for this," said an economy analyst in Tehran. "But there is also alarm from what Italy did."
A ruling by an Italian court last month upheld a 1996 US law that holds responsible for "terrorist" acts those nations designated by the US government as "sponsors of international terrorism".
A court in Rome ordered Banca Nazionale del Lavoro (BNL) to freeze an account held by the Iranian government, over the deaths of three Americans in the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories at the hands of Palestinian bombers.
Iran has protested that its official accounts were protected by the Vienna Convention governing diplomatic relations.
But families of US citizens killed in the bombing of its Beirut embassy in 1983 by Hizbollah, the Lebanese Shia militant group, are planning to follow suit - asking European courts to seize Iranian assets after a US ruling that Iran should pay $126m in damages.
Davoud Danesh-Jafari, Iran's economy minister, said on Thursday the seizure of Iranian assets was both contrary to "global regulations" and damaging for Europe's banks.
"Such acts would make oil-rich countries anxious to transfer their capital out of European banks into safer places," he said.
While officials do not expect sanctions against Iran within the next few months - while diplomacy runs its course, and a compromise over the nuclear issue, probably brokered by Russia, remains possible - analysts are assessing their possible impact.
The media in Iran has this week highlighted the upward pressure on oil prices simply through talk of sanctions.
Iran exports around 2.5m barrels of crude a day and is the world's fourth largest producer.
The country has been subject to comprehensive American sanctions since the 1979 Islamic Revolution toppled the US-backed Shah. But many European companies - including the energy majors Shell, Total and Statoil - are active in Iran.
By Gareth Smyth and Najmeh Bozorgmehr in Tehran Fri Jan 20, 7:05 AM ET
Iran is moving foreign exchange out of European banks in advance of a possible referral to the United Nations Security Council and imposition of economic sanctions over its nuclear programme.
Ebrahim Sheibani, Central Bank governor, told reporters on Friday that Iran would "transfer the foreign exchange reserves wherever we consider expedient" and confirmed a shift from Europe had begun.
Mr Sheibani refused to give details or to say where the funds were going, although ISNA, the semi-official Iranian news agency, said the destination was southeast Asia.
On the internationall currency markets, the dollar fell briefly on Friday against the euro and safe-haven Swiss franc on the news .
"Clearly the Iran situation is the key focus at the moment, our view is that eventually it will settle down, but it's expected to rumble on for a while and so maybe at the margins slightly supportive of the safe-haven currencies like the Swiss Franc," Kevin Grice, senior economist at American Express Bank, said.
The Central Bank manages Iran's 'windfall' oil revenue, which could amount to around $25bn in the Iranian year ending in March 2006, and has kept an unknown amount in Europe.
"The nuclear issue and the chance of sanctions is the main reason for this," said an economy analyst in Tehran. "But there is also alarm from what Italy did."
A ruling by an Italian court last month upheld a 1996 US law that holds responsible for "terrorist" acts those nations designated by the US government as "sponsors of international terrorism".
A court in Rome ordered Banca Nazionale del Lavoro (BNL) to freeze an account held by the Iranian government, over the deaths of three Americans in the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories at the hands of Palestinian bombers.
Iran has protested that its official accounts were protected by the Vienna Convention governing diplomatic relations.
But families of US citizens killed in the bombing of its Beirut embassy in 1983 by Hizbollah, the Lebanese Shia militant group, are planning to follow suit - asking European courts to seize Iranian assets after a US ruling that Iran should pay $126m in damages.
Davoud Danesh-Jafari, Iran's economy minister, said on Thursday the seizure of Iranian assets was both contrary to "global regulations" and damaging for Europe's banks.
"Such acts would make oil-rich countries anxious to transfer their capital out of European banks into safer places," he said.
While officials do not expect sanctions against Iran within the next few months - while diplomacy runs its course, and a compromise over the nuclear issue, probably brokered by Russia, remains possible - analysts are assessing their possible impact.
The media in Iran has this week highlighted the upward pressure on oil prices simply through talk of sanctions.
Iran exports around 2.5m barrels of crude a day and is the world's fourth largest producer.
The country has been subject to comprehensive American sanctions since the 1979 Islamic Revolution toppled the US-backed Shah. But many European companies - including the energy majors Shell, Total and Statoil - are active in Iran.
W
Wizard
Guest
Mike said:Down she goes...where she stops, nobody knows.
Staying defensive until this resolves.
Feel bad for those that fully funded their ROTH/IRAs on all the "excitement" and not wanting to "miss the 2006 rally" last week.
And lots of em did. 
Mike
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 8
I don't feel bad for people funding their Roth IRA's - that's a long-term investment and one bad day / week / month after investing isn't going to mean much in 20 years.
In '04 I funded it in December and saw a loss immediately. In '05, I funded it between February and April, and did pretty well right after those buy-ins. It really doesn't matter though, since I'm not likely to ever touch that money for the next 30 years.
And this week looks like the start of the correction - bad days in the I fund and now a bad one on the domestic side, as well... it'll be interesting to see where we find support.
In '04 I funded it in December and saw a loss immediately. In '05, I funded it between February and April, and did pretty well right after those buy-ins. It really doesn't matter though, since I'm not likely to ever touch that money for the next 30 years.
And this week looks like the start of the correction - bad days in the I fund and now a bad one on the domestic side, as well... it'll be interesting to see where we find support.
Soldat
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 2
With Iran pulling out assets from Europe, the banks will suffer. All in all, I dont see this pullback lasting long and we will be back at it in no time. With the world population rising and the middle classes surging, the global economies will always be bullish unless people start dying by the millions.
W
Wizard
Guest
Every little bounce is being sold into.
SPX has to hold 1261 or it will go to another level of ugly.
SPX has to hold 1261 or it will go to another level of ugly.
