Market Talk / August 6 - 12

[TiCKed]

If that holds, I went from chicken to hero being in G fund then.

Ocean

Guess I'm a cow-pie. I just sit and stink, no matter what.

 

[nnuut]

BAAAAAH! Join the flock!

 

[Dave M]

Wild

Raise rates in May, market goes down. Don't raise rates in August, market goes down. There's something rotten in Denmark. D

 

[Show-me]

Inflation is still high, GDP lower, oil and mining high. This may be a hollow victory because if inflation is NOT contained the next fed meeting they may raise rates again. Or the next. Until we get some wording that "inflation IS contained" there is too much uncertainty.:notrust: :blink: :nuts:

 

[nnuut]

Re: Wild

Raise rates in May, market goes down. Don't raise rates in August, market goes down. There's something rotten in Denmark. D

Uncertainty Dave! Right, CROOKS!:notrust:

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Wild

Raise rates in May, market goes down. Don't raise rates in August, market goes down. There's something rotten in Denmark. D

It's all good. Buy the rumor, sell the news. Now if it can last another day so we can get fully invested again. If things play out as we usually see them after a Fed meeting, we should see a reversal in a day or two.

By the way Dave M - Two more posts and you'll hit the Team TSP status. Woohoo! That kind of evens things out today.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
August 8, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak...................................Fed paused! Inflation moderate!

Con-Yak..................................Slower growth 3.25-3.50%!

Jester-Yak...............................Pig market!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1271.48, dn -4.29.
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........-0.060, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+5.103, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........70.03, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 53.04 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................76.31, dn -0.67
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Yellow / Red [doodles +1-4 / Lube > 75]

Tin Box:
Position....................................100% socks
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1267. Trail: 1254.

 

[ebbnflow]

I can't imagine what the market would have done had the Feds gone through with a rate hike. :blink: It's damned if you do, and damned if you don't.

 

[tsptalk]

I'd be surprised if tomorrow is not green. Too bad we couldn't do anything about it today since we didn't know what the post Fed market would do.

 

[Mike]

I just got interviewed about what the Fed did today by a finance writer locally.

Yeah, I'm cool like that.

If it makes it into the paper, I'll be sure to post it.

 

[tsptalk]

Cool!

 

[frokker]

I'd be surprised if tomorrow is not green. Too bad we couldn't do anything about it today since we didn't know what the post Fed market would do.

That would be nice if the I follows todays action and drops a little. I want to shift some more into the I fund tomorrow and it looks to be setting up to be a good time.

 

[Spaf]

Bonds! Looks like the F-fund is getting some life back in it. Also reference the ETF fund of [TLT]. Not that they are making any big dust clouds, but at least the averages show a change for the better. If the interest rate pause holds they could be a viable option again.

RE: www.stockcharts.com [AGG][TLT]

Regards................:nuts: ......................Spaf

 

[vectorman]

Well the Fed has finally paused. I noticed that several of the U.S. major indexes gapped up from yesterday. So is there going to be sell the rally mentality again? I feel like my roller coaster is at the top of the hill again. I noticed that the bar for the Dow and SPX yesterday was outside the limits of the bar from the day before. Does that mean a trend change?

 

[grandma]

I just got interviewed about what the Fed did today by a finance writer locally. Yeah, I'm cool like that.
If it makes it into the paper, I'll be sure to post it.

That is Neat, Mike !! If what is printed implies other that what you said, be sure you include the corrections in your post !! We are proud of you! I think we are all glad for your `getting a life' besides those
'hunerd-hours/week-over-time' - but we have missed your posts & contributions !!!
Our best of everything, including the market, to you !!!

 

[The_Technician]

Another freaky Friday in the the making.....

 

[Mike]

What can I say - women have made me less productive in some areas, moreso in others.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
August 9, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak...................................It started out so nice!

Con-Yak..................................It's got the economic gitters!

Jester-Yak...............................Has anyone a good rumor?

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1265.95, dn -5.53.
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........-0.066, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+4.306, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........60.05, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 50.00 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................76.35, up +0.04
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Red / Red [doodles +1-4 / Lube > 75]

Tin Box:
Position....................................100% socks
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1267 [broken]. Trail: 1254.

 

[robo]

Well the Fed has finally paused. I noticed that several of the U.S. major indexes gapped up from yesterday. So is there going to be sell the rally mentality again? I feel like my roller coaster is at the top of the hill again. I noticed that the bar for the Dow and SPX yesterday was outside the limits of the bar from the day before. Does that mean a trend change?

Vectorman,

Some TA's I follow think so. I got some short the Market Signals today before the close and many moved to cash some time ago...

I'm in G Fund in TSP, but I'm considering a short postion in my Brokerage account, QQQQ's...

It will be a small postion. I prefer to add longs on pullbacks, but I want to see If 1260 holds, if not I'll be watching 1240's.... However, as we all know we could get a rally, but things are slipping away for the Bulls. It is August, and the current geopolitical environment is putting plenty of pressure on this Market... The list is long, no need to talk about them...In my opinion the Bears will come out of their caves and try and take us down the rest of the week... I'm not sure they can, but the Bull/Bear battle starts again tomorrow... The Shorts will pile on...

I'm still Bullish longer term, and was netural short-term... Short-term is starting to look Bearish, but I'll wait and see what happens to 1260's first...

Plenty of pretty smart folks think the support levels will hold and the lows for the year are in.... Still to be determined...

 

[Bart]

I'd be surprised if tomorrow is not green. Too bad we couldn't do anything about it today since we didn't know what the post Fed market would do.

Well, from what I can read from the charts at the bottom of the page, the C & the S took a beating again today. The fed be darned. The "I" and the "F" were up a little. I'm new at this game, but I thought that when the stock market was up the Bond market was down and vise versa. Is the "I" fund not part of that equation?
I'm still 60% I and 20-20 in the S & C. and I'm just holding on.