-
Welcome to the TSP Talk Forums forums.
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content, join our AutoTracker, and access many other special features. Registration is simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today!
If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact us. -
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
-
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
Market Talk / August 6 - 12
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
Griffin
Well-known member
tsptalk said:
I'm bettin the whole enchilada on it (but then again, I always do). I moved 100% into the C today and will punch out midweek if the situation gets dicey. Once things get rolling the following week, I'm looking to shift gears into the S-fund. If the inflation numbers come in good, I expect the dollar to open a case whoop a*! on the foreign markets.
FundSurfer
Well-known member
If the cease fire holds, this has the making of some good action on Monday. I'd be hard to say if it was options expiration or increased optimism resulting cease fire.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Fundsurfer,
There will not be a cease fire - that's silly. Israel is protecting their flank in preparation for the major conflict with Iran. We will help pound Iran into sand along with other allies. We have been making preparations for several years moving Patriot Batteries out of Germany and building infrastructure in Iraq to handle the logistics. Unfortunately, it's only a matter of time before they meet their Allah. The Liberals can kneel all they want - just take their heads for fun. Worthless bunch anyway. There is no other solution but violence.
There will not be a cease fire - that's silly. Israel is protecting their flank in preparation for the major conflict with Iran. We will help pound Iran into sand along with other allies. We have been making preparations for several years moving Patriot Batteries out of Germany and building infrastructure in Iraq to handle the logistics. Unfortunately, it's only a matter of time before they meet their Allah. The Liberals can kneel all they want - just take their heads for fun. Worthless bunch anyway. There is no other solution but violence.
D
Dave M
Guest
Wheels, you're right that is significant, I take back that word. Now we need that green more than ever. D
Edit: Heard on the TV in the next room -- "Cookie or death, cookie or death...let's see...okay I'll take the cookie!"
Edit: Heard on the TV in the next room -- "Cookie or death, cookie or death...let's see...okay I'll take the cookie!"
Birchtree
Well-known member
Cookies - heck let them eat value
Managers of value mutual funds can be a finicky bunch when it comes to investing, because their goal is to buy stocks on the cheap. A year ago, many were sitting on record piles of cash and saying that stocks were overvalued.
Now, they appear to be diving back in. In recent months, some value-fund managers have started POURING cash back into the market. For individual investors, it marks an important shift because it suggests that at least some investment pros think they are starting to spot decent prices.
I'll be back in the market next week again with a new list of wall flowers to acquire. I enjoy shopping alone. Snort.
Managers of value mutual funds can be a finicky bunch when it comes to investing, because their goal is to buy stocks on the cheap. A year ago, many were sitting on record piles of cash and saying that stocks were overvalued.
Now, they appear to be diving back in. In recent months, some value-fund managers have started POURING cash back into the market. For individual investors, it marks an important shift because it suggests that at least some investment pros think they are starting to spot decent prices.
I'll be back in the market next week again with a new list of wall flowers to acquire. I enjoy shopping alone. Snort.
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
Do I really think Isreal will cease fire now? NO, not right now, it will take a little time, especially when Hezbollah holds out.:notrust:
UNITED NATIONS (CNN) -- The U.N. Security Council on Friday unanimously approved a six-page proposal aimed at ending the monthlong conflict between Israel and Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon.
Daniel Ayalon, Israel's ambassador to the United States, said before the vote that the Israeli Security Cabinet was likely to sign off on the resolution at its Sunday meeting.
"I do not want to pre-empt the Cabinet decision, but the language as I see it now -- and I'm being careful -- if the language of the resolution doesn't change, I view this resolution very positively and, of course, the crux is implementation," Ayalon said. "If this resolution will be enforced, then we solve the problem of Lebanon."
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/08/11/mideast.main/index.html
UNITED NATIONS (CNN) -- The U.N. Security Council on Friday unanimously approved a six-page proposal aimed at ending the monthlong conflict between Israel and Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon.
Daniel Ayalon, Israel's ambassador to the United States, said before the vote that the Israeli Security Cabinet was likely to sign off on the resolution at its Sunday meeting.
"I do not want to pre-empt the Cabinet decision, but the language as I see it now -- and I'm being careful -- if the language of the resolution doesn't change, I view this resolution very positively and, of course, the crux is implementation," Ayalon said. "If this resolution will be enforced, then we solve the problem of Lebanon."
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/08/11/mideast.main/index.html
FundSurfer
Well-known member
Birchtree said:
Wow, pretty pessimistic for a Bull. That won't exactly be good for stocks...
robo
Well-known member
Trading With the NYSE TICK
Trading With the NYSE TICK - Part Two
Trading With the NYSE TICK - Part Three
Since July, 2003 (N = 774 trading days), I found 63 occasions in which the S&P 500 Index (SPY) was up by more than 1% on the day. Four days later, SPY was up on average by .07% (35 up, 28 down). That represents no bullish edge whatsoever relative to the average four-day SPY gain of .14% (432 up, 342 down) for the entire sample.
Now, however, let's factor the NYSE TICK into the mix. When SPY has been up by more than 1% *and* the NYSE TICK has been strong (N = 31), the next four days in SPY average a gain of .39% (22 up, 9 down). When SPY has been up by more than 1% and the TICK has been weak (N = 32), the next four days in SPY have averaged a loss of -.24% (13 up, 19 down). Clearly, the TICK makes a difference: a single day's TICK reading has bullish or bearish implications four days out.
How about when the S&P 500 (SPY) is weak on the day? We had 67 occasions in which SPY has been down by more than 1% in a single day since July, 2003. When the SPY was weak and the NYSE TICK was relatively strong (N = 34), the next four days in SPY average a gain of .39% (21 up, 13 down). When SPY was weak *and* the TICK was weak (N = 33), the next four days in SPY averaged a gain of only .03% (16 up, 17 down). Once again, we see that a single day's TICK reading exerts an influence several days out.
Now let's look at the TICK over multiple days. When the adjusted NYSE TICK averages more than +500 over a four-day period (N = 36), the *next* four days in SPY average a gain of .39% (23 up, 13 down). That is much stronger than the average four-day gain of .14%, as noted above. When the TICK averages less than -500 over a four-day period (N = 34), the next four days in SPY average a gain of .48% (23 up, 11 down)--again much stronger than average.
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/
Trading With the NYSE TICK - Part Two
Trading With the NYSE TICK - Part Three
Since July, 2003 (N = 774 trading days), I found 63 occasions in which the S&P 500 Index (SPY) was up by more than 1% on the day. Four days later, SPY was up on average by .07% (35 up, 28 down). That represents no bullish edge whatsoever relative to the average four-day SPY gain of .14% (432 up, 342 down) for the entire sample.
Now, however, let's factor the NYSE TICK into the mix. When SPY has been up by more than 1% *and* the NYSE TICK has been strong (N = 31), the next four days in SPY average a gain of .39% (22 up, 9 down). When SPY has been up by more than 1% and the TICK has been weak (N = 32), the next four days in SPY have averaged a loss of -.24% (13 up, 19 down). Clearly, the TICK makes a difference: a single day's TICK reading has bullish or bearish implications four days out.
How about when the S&P 500 (SPY) is weak on the day? We had 67 occasions in which SPY has been down by more than 1% in a single day since July, 2003. When the SPY was weak and the NYSE TICK was relatively strong (N = 34), the next four days in SPY average a gain of .39% (21 up, 13 down). When SPY was weak *and* the TICK was weak (N = 33), the next four days in SPY averaged a gain of only .03% (16 up, 17 down). Once again, we see that a single day's TICK reading exerts an influence several days out.
Now let's look at the TICK over multiple days. When the adjusted NYSE TICK averages more than +500 over a four-day period (N = 36), the *next* four days in SPY average a gain of .39% (23 up, 13 down). That is much stronger than the average four-day gain of .14%, as noted above. When the TICK averages less than -500 over a four-day period (N = 34), the next four days in SPY average a gain of .48% (23 up, 11 down)--again much stronger than average.
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/
Birchtree
Well-known member
Some investors (me) are harking back to 1995, when after a year of pushing rates higher, the Fed went on hold. In the next 12 months, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climed 40%. The Fed paused in February 1995 and in May 2000. The first time, the economy had a soft landing - slow growth followed by five more years of expansion. The second time, it fell into recession. The Fed expects economic growth to remain steady as business and exports off set a slow down in consumer spending.
In any case, putting money in the market just because the Fed has stopped raising rates hasn't always been a great idea. In the year following the final rsate increase in 2000, the Dow kept its head above water, but the Nasdaq Composite fell 43%. The best time to buy stocks is when the Fed stops lowering rates. That usually happens when the economy is recovering from painful periods and investors are having a hard time seeing through to better days.
I think the small caps have or are peaking for this cycle. Buy the big dogs and go global. Henry has gone neutral I noticed. He needs more stamina.
In any case, putting money in the market just because the Fed has stopped raising rates hasn't always been a great idea. In the year following the final rsate increase in 2000, the Dow kept its head above water, but the Nasdaq Composite fell 43%. The best time to buy stocks is when the Fed stops lowering rates. That usually happens when the economy is recovering from painful periods and investors are having a hard time seeing through to better days.
I think the small caps have or are peaking for this cycle. Buy the big dogs and go global. Henry has gone neutral I noticed. He needs more stamina.
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
Think the Markets may react to this? "I" Like!
If I'm getting too complicated let me know and I'll dumb it up a notch!
U.N.: Cease-fire begins Monday
Lebanon Cabinet member: Hezbollah won't disarm in U.N. region
BEIRUT, Lebanon (CNN) -- The U.N.-brokered cease-fire between Hezbollah and Israel will begin at 8 a.m. (1 a.m. ET) Monday, U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said in a taped statement Saturday.
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/08/12/mideast.main/index.html
"I" Like! If I'm getting too complicated let me know and I'll dumb it up a notch! U.N.: Cease-fire begins Monday
Lebanon Cabinet member: Hezbollah won't disarm in U.N. region
BEIRUT, Lebanon (CNN) -- The U.N.-brokered cease-fire between Hezbollah and Israel will begin at 8 a.m. (1 a.m. ET) Monday, U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said in a taped statement Saturday.
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/08/12/mideast.main/index.html
Birchtree
Well-known member
Israel wants to protect their flank - before taking on Iran with the U.S. providing logistics. This would reduce many problems facing the free world and the markets would rally as a result. Think back to March 2003 for a trial run. The Dow did 3000 points in ten months and can very easily duplicate it again especially now that most everyone is a blinded bear.
Yes, there is a fine line between being early and being wrong. I'm in to win. Snort.
Yes, there is a fine line between being early and being wrong. I'm in to win. Snort.
