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Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
G
Guest
Guest
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Spaf wrote:
Spaf wrote:
What does this mean Spaf?
macdtrader
Member
imported post
Birchtree,
I'm still onboardwith 40% C, 50% S, and 10% I, and was glad to seethe stock market averages thrust higheronThursday and Friday after the cowardly, criminal,despicable,maiming, murderous, terroistattacksinLondon. Ifelt the least I could dowas not to panic and sell but to hold onto my stock market shares.I recommended in my account talk thateveryone elsehold or buy more stock fund shares. I believe that someof the terroist cell murderershope that theworld's investorswillpanic,sell shares andallow themto profit in the financial markets fromtheir foreknowledge ofthe chaos, disaster, destruction, fearand mayheim their bombs unleash.
Pleasetake every precautionto keep yourselfsafe from Hurricane Dennis. We need your advice and commentson these boards. When the stormis over,would you please expound onhow other TSP investorscanget100% leverage fromC Fund shares? (It was myunderstandingthat TSP has no margin accounts.) Also, since you areastockmarket millionaire, would you please share anyrecommendations or secretsonwhatinvestments or stocksmay help growsmallIRA accounts into largeaccounts like yours?Thank you very much!
Birchtree,
I'm still onboardwith 40% C, 50% S, and 10% I, and was glad to seethe stock market averages thrust higheronThursday and Friday after the cowardly, criminal,despicable,maiming, murderous, terroistattacksinLondon. Ifelt the least I could dowas not to panic and sell but to hold onto my stock market shares.I recommended in my account talk thateveryone elsehold or buy more stock fund shares. I believe that someof the terroist cell murderershope that theworld's investorswillpanic,sell shares andallow themto profit in the financial markets fromtheir foreknowledge ofthe chaos, disaster, destruction, fearand mayheim their bombs unleash.
Pleasetake every precautionto keep yourselfsafe from Hurricane Dennis. We need your advice and commentson these boards. When the stormis over,would you please expound onhow other TSP investorscanget100% leverage fromC Fund shares? (It was myunderstandingthat TSP has no margin accounts.) Also, since you areastockmarket millionaire, would you please share anyrecommendations or secretsonwhatinvestments or stocksmay help growsmallIRA accounts into largeaccounts like yours?Thank you very much!
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
Wonder Woman,
What Spaf is saying now that we may have lift off is that there is still danger all around. The possibility remains that I may get tagged by a flying meteor and come crashing down in flames on reentry. But he is not aware that I have an official Flash Gordon badge that extols the virtues of reckless space travel - I will do my best to dodge and weave around any on coming debris.
Wonder Woman,
What Spaf is saying now that we may have lift off is that there is still danger all around. The possibility remains that I may get tagged by a flying meteor and come crashing down in flames on reentry. But he is not aware that I have an official Flash Gordon badge that extols the virtues of reckless space travel - I will do my best to dodge and weave around any on coming debris.
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
The bulls are probing for the remote possibility of a rally that could take the bears by complete surprise as to its magnitude and duration. Better bury your bear bias. A big move may be upon us. But then again the Elliot Wave people are saying we have a final rally leg underway before a hughe wave 3 decline starts taking us down to DJIA of 7,000. I think I'll pass on that one for the time being.
Another reason for contrarians to be cautious of the S fund. As of Friday's close 85% of the component issues of the R2K were above their 50 day EMA's, while only 51% of the component issues of the SPX were above their 50 day EMA's. The R2K put in a new all-time high this week after outperforming for essentially 7 years. Yes, there may be more to go - but I'm not a buyer.
The bulls are probing for the remote possibility of a rally that could take the bears by complete surprise as to its magnitude and duration. Better bury your bear bias. A big move may be upon us. But then again the Elliot Wave people are saying we have a final rally leg underway before a hughe wave 3 decline starts taking us down to DJIA of 7,000. I think I'll pass on that one for the time being.
Another reason for contrarians to be cautious of the S fund. As of Friday's close 85% of the component issues of the R2K were above their 50 day EMA's, while only 51% of the component issues of the SPX were above their 50 day EMA's. The R2K put in a new all-time high this week after outperforming for essentially 7 years. Yes, there may be more to go - but I'm not a buyer.
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
Birchtree wrote:
I've been looking in the attic for my Captain Midnight decoder that decrips various market signals. As soon as I find it, I'll come up and orbit with U. Right now, I've only found the hood bug screen to a old 68 Ford pick-up I had a long time ago! I don't think that even compares to an "official Flash Gordon badge!"
Still looking!!!!!!!!! Regards!
Spaf
Birchtree wrote:
Dennis,
I've been looking in the attic for my Captain Midnight decoder that decrips various market signals. As soon as I find it, I'll come up and orbit with U. Right now, I've only found the hood bug screen to a old 68 Ford pick-up I had a long time ago! I don't think that even compares to an "official Flash Gordon badge!"
Still looking!!!!!!!!! Regards!
Spaf
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
This is a repeat of a post I made a while ago - but is even more pertinent today if one is wondering where the cash will come from to provide the continuing upward momentum of this current leg. Perhaps the Chinese will return also.
Value managers are sitting on the biggest hoards of cash in the history of their funds, in some cases topping more than 30% of assets - six times as much as the typical actively managed stock fund. Just like hedge funds when these value guys move it will most likely be in tandum.
There has been a blurring of the distinction between what is a value stock versus a growth stock. They all seem to be moving toward the core application. So many of the historically defined growth stocks are now regarded as the new value play.
Another reason to be in favor of the underperforming C fund. Over the last five years, the average small cap value fund has returned 14.6% a year and the midcap value funds are up an average 10.6%. In contrast, large cap funds have fallen 8.27% a year over the last five years. To me, as a contrarian, that says time has come today.
This is a repeat of a post I made a while ago - but is even more pertinent today if one is wondering where the cash will come from to provide the continuing upward momentum of this current leg. Perhaps the Chinese will return also.
Value managers are sitting on the biggest hoards of cash in the history of their funds, in some cases topping more than 30% of assets - six times as much as the typical actively managed stock fund. Just like hedge funds when these value guys move it will most likely be in tandum.
There has been a blurring of the distinction between what is a value stock versus a growth stock. They all seem to be moving toward the core application. So many of the historically defined growth stocks are now regarded as the new value play.
Another reason to be in favor of the underperforming C fund. Over the last five years, the average small cap value fund has returned 14.6% a year and the midcap value funds are up an average 10.6%. In contrast, large cap funds have fallen 8.27% a year over the last five years. To me, as a contrarian, that says time has come today.
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
Birchtree wrote:
How come you're not hiding out in some shelter because of your namesake? What's the weather like where you are. I just heard one of the monitoring buoys seemed to have disappeared - no data being reported.
Birchtree wrote:
Dennis,
How come you're not hiding out in some shelter because of your namesake? What's the weather like where you are. I just heard one of the monitoring buoys seemed to have disappeared - no data being reported.
The_Technician
Active member
imported post
Whew....got lucky.....Dennis The Menace went the utter waaay.....
Horses are fine, house is fine, lost a couple of trees,.....back to work....
I wonder if FEMA has a money making machine around.....sometimes I think they need it!!!
Don't fret right now folks.... we have anuutter on the way in the Atlantic.....
Seems after last year the northern fronts that had protected the US from Hurricanes have shifted more north and now the hurricane factory is taking pot shots at us at leisure....
Last year it was "Ivan the Terrible" now......I'm looking for "Hagar the Horrible" on the horizon sooner or later.....
Gotta take a look at the market now.......Well, I'll be back!!!!
:^
Whew....got lucky.....Dennis The Menace went the utter waaay.....
Horses are fine, house is fine, lost a couple of trees,.....back to work....
I wonder if FEMA has a money making machine around.....sometimes I think they need it!!!
Don't fret right now folks.... we have anuutter on the way in the Atlantic.....
Seems after last year the northern fronts that had protected the US from Hurricanes have shifted more north and now the hurricane factory is taking pot shots at us at leisure....
Last year it was "Ivan the Terrible" now......I'm looking for "Hagar the Horrible" on the horizon sooner or later.....
Gotta take a look at the market now.......Well, I'll be back!!!!
:^
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
Here is my weekly update on the oceanic account (my private Merrill account). Currently as of Friday 7/8 I'm at $903,000 - had a gain of 24K last week. If this momentum continues I'll be off the come back trail and moving forward to my original goal of $1M. Now if there are folks that are having difficulty reading or comprehending these figures - I certainly make no apologies. You have to understand that it has taken me 30 years to build that large oceanic account. And there have been many set backs along the route - but each time I recover and get a little larger and stronger. Let's see if I can play this market well enough to advance to the $1M mark and beyond. Today certainly was nice - just riding the cycle for the moment and thinking where I ring the cash register - to take some profit and reinvest the results. One has to keep the thing fed to remain dynamic.
Here is my weekly update on the oceanic account (my private Merrill account). Currently as of Friday 7/8 I'm at $903,000 - had a gain of 24K last week. If this momentum continues I'll be off the come back trail and moving forward to my original goal of $1M. Now if there are folks that are having difficulty reading or comprehending these figures - I certainly make no apologies. You have to understand that it has taken me 30 years to build that large oceanic account. And there have been many set backs along the route - but each time I recover and get a little larger and stronger. Let's see if I can play this market well enough to advance to the $1M mark and beyond. Today certainly was nice - just riding the cycle for the moment and thinking where I ring the cash register - to take some profit and reinvest the results. One has to keep the thing fed to remain dynamic.
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
Ferdinand is resting and enjoying the scent of fresh green money. One has to remain cognizant of the Chicken Little and Yogi types that are probably still in control of the panic sell button. Now is not the time to take short term profits - must let'er run a while longer
Transports rallied hard today up 1.45% to 3661.90, waiting on 3872.06 from 3/8/05 to offer a Dow Theory confirmation. The all time high for DJIA was 11,723 on 1/14/00. We are on the way. The NYSE cumulative composite is at new all time highs. And if breadth leads price, a bullish breakout of the current trading range should be expected in the not to distant future. The NYSE AD line typically precedes higher prices. History suggests we have not yet seen a price top in the popular averages.
Some folks are wondering why the small caps did not participate in the rally today, simply speaking, institutional money is rotating out of the small caps into the larger caps in anticipation of the future earnings growth slowing for the small caps.
If the Dow can rally up through the resistance level of 10660 then a mighty move may transpire- there won't be any set backs for late comers to get on board unless you want to pay up to play. If it were my decision I'd pay up to play - and make the money back on ever increasing higher prices. Lift off is here.
Ferdinand is resting and enjoying the scent of fresh green money. One has to remain cognizant of the Chicken Little and Yogi types that are probably still in control of the panic sell button. Now is not the time to take short term profits - must let'er run a while longer
Transports rallied hard today up 1.45% to 3661.90, waiting on 3872.06 from 3/8/05 to offer a Dow Theory confirmation. The all time high for DJIA was 11,723 on 1/14/00. We are on the way. The NYSE cumulative composite is at new all time highs. And if breadth leads price, a bullish breakout of the current trading range should be expected in the not to distant future. The NYSE AD line typically precedes higher prices. History suggests we have not yet seen a price top in the popular averages.
Some folks are wondering why the small caps did not participate in the rally today, simply speaking, institutional money is rotating out of the small caps into the larger caps in anticipation of the future earnings growth slowing for the small caps.
If the Dow can rally up through the resistance level of 10660 then a mighty move may transpire- there won't be any set backs for late comers to get on board unless you want to pay up to play. If it were my decision I'd pay up to play - and make the money back on ever increasing higher prices. Lift off is here.
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
What is the significance of NYSE AD lines achieving all time highs, while the most popular averages (DJI, SPX, OEC ) are well below their respective all-time highs? If breadth in fact leads price, particularly when AD lines are breaking all time highs, then the NYSE group of issues are enjoying the level of positive liquidity that typically precedes higher prices. History is suggesting that we have not yet seen a price top in the more popular averages.
What is the significance of NYSE AD lines achieving all time highs, while the most popular averages (DJI, SPX, OEC ) are well below their respective all-time highs? If breadth in fact leads price, particularly when AD lines are breaking all time highs, then the NYSE group of issues are enjoying the level of positive liquidity that typically precedes higher prices. History is suggesting that we have not yet seen a price top in the more popular averages.
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
What was it that Peggy Lee used to say "Is that all there is" Hardly - we got lots more in store for this dull summer. Goldilocks is alive and well - the statistics this week were excellent - but of course the markets discount the future and that is where the challenge resides. Greenspan may drop a hint on 7/20 or continue to play hard ball - it doesn't matter anymore this market is heading much higher. The question becomes how high and how fast? Only the Technician knows for sure.
From a major trend view, one indicator to watch is the percentage of NYSE stocks trading above their own 200-day moving averages. That figure, which now is about 72%, has been tracing a series of lower peaks since its post - 2002 bull market high of 93% in the first quarter of 2004. If the major averages were to reach highs in the coming months and this indicator were to fail below 80-90%, it would be a sign that the post-2002 bull market is coming to an end. Never happen GI. When you are in a bull market it is always prudent to be aware of the potential for an ambush. Something that slaps you from out of nowhere - and puts one in panic mode. We just had one recently with the attacks in London.
We now apparently have a double divergence that has not occured in the markets since the cyclical bull market began in October 2002. While the sp500 is in the midst of making a new high for the year, (actually a 4 year high) both the DJIA (10997) and the DTA (3872) are still some distance away from their early March highs - this is a very significant divergence by the two major Dow indices. But I believe we will see confirmation of the moves soon.
I'm also watching the NYSE McClellan Oscillator - a negative divergence in this oscillator has often preceded a significant decline in the NYSE composite. The most recent divergence in the oscillator will be confirmed once it has declined into negative territory. Presently sitting around 69 but hopefully will not go to zero. I believe Tom has been monitoring this indicator. Looks like we got a nice wall of worry to watch.
My friends at Merrill at last are recognizing that commodities are in a secular bull market, and are recommending that incestors stay exposed to that asset class. This company has always been a trend follower and not a trend leader - so it's a little comforting when they confirm my strategy.
Now for some good news - history shows that mid-cycle slow downs have been followed by very strong stock performance in ensuing years. Another bright note from history; going back to 1948, the highest stock market returns have occured when economic growth was running at 3 to 4%. Only a few more words to say.
The sp500 had a price return of negative 1.7% for the first half of 2005, there are still good reasons to stay bullish. Recently positive performance has become more widespread. During the first quarter, only four of the 10 sectors of the sp500 representing about 25% of the index's market capitalization had favorable returns. During the second quarter, six sectors representing about 64% of market cap, were in positive territory. The fact that growth-oriented industries such as oil services and equipment and health care providers bid stocks higher adds to my enthusiasm.
The most recent 25-day CBOE put-call ratio is at a very favorable level of 86%, it usually falls to or below 75% before a market advance reaches a significant top. Some or all of the major averages might have to record new highs to push the put-call indicator to lower (more optimistic) readings before a serious top develops.
What was it that Peggy Lee used to say "Is that all there is" Hardly - we got lots more in store for this dull summer. Goldilocks is alive and well - the statistics this week were excellent - but of course the markets discount the future and that is where the challenge resides. Greenspan may drop a hint on 7/20 or continue to play hard ball - it doesn't matter anymore this market is heading much higher. The question becomes how high and how fast? Only the Technician knows for sure.
From a major trend view, one indicator to watch is the percentage of NYSE stocks trading above their own 200-day moving averages. That figure, which now is about 72%, has been tracing a series of lower peaks since its post - 2002 bull market high of 93% in the first quarter of 2004. If the major averages were to reach highs in the coming months and this indicator were to fail below 80-90%, it would be a sign that the post-2002 bull market is coming to an end. Never happen GI. When you are in a bull market it is always prudent to be aware of the potential for an ambush. Something that slaps you from out of nowhere - and puts one in panic mode. We just had one recently with the attacks in London.
We now apparently have a double divergence that has not occured in the markets since the cyclical bull market began in October 2002. While the sp500 is in the midst of making a new high for the year, (actually a 4 year high) both the DJIA (10997) and the DTA (3872) are still some distance away from their early March highs - this is a very significant divergence by the two major Dow indices. But I believe we will see confirmation of the moves soon.
I'm also watching the NYSE McClellan Oscillator - a negative divergence in this oscillator has often preceded a significant decline in the NYSE composite. The most recent divergence in the oscillator will be confirmed once it has declined into negative territory. Presently sitting around 69 but hopefully will not go to zero. I believe Tom has been monitoring this indicator. Looks like we got a nice wall of worry to watch.
My friends at Merrill at last are recognizing that commodities are in a secular bull market, and are recommending that incestors stay exposed to that asset class. This company has always been a trend follower and not a trend leader - so it's a little comforting when they confirm my strategy.
Now for some good news - history shows that mid-cycle slow downs have been followed by very strong stock performance in ensuing years. Another bright note from history; going back to 1948, the highest stock market returns have occured when economic growth was running at 3 to 4%. Only a few more words to say.
The sp500 had a price return of negative 1.7% for the first half of 2005, there are still good reasons to stay bullish. Recently positive performance has become more widespread. During the first quarter, only four of the 10 sectors of the sp500 representing about 25% of the index's market capitalization had favorable returns. During the second quarter, six sectors representing about 64% of market cap, were in positive territory. The fact that growth-oriented industries such as oil services and equipment and health care providers bid stocks higher adds to my enthusiasm.
The most recent 25-day CBOE put-call ratio is at a very favorable level of 86%, it usually falls to or below 75% before a market advance reaches a significant top. Some or all of the major averages might have to record new highs to push the put-call indicator to lower (more optimistic) readings before a serious top develops.
D
Dave M
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imported post
Hello reckless one. Actually you are anything but reckless, I would say. And I think I agree with your sentiment but not your numbers. To cover all domestic bases, my contributions should go into C and S funds, with a small portion into the international fund in order not to lose out on potential gains from overseas.
I think I will not put new money into the F-fund, and will get out of there entirely once it achieves a number ahigher than 10.70 which is my basis in that fund. It has always been a sluggish performer and it's recent good performance is something of a conundrum, heh.
How does 40C 40S 20I sound to you? Reasonable?
Dave
Hello reckless one. Actually you are anything but reckless, I would say. And I think I agree with your sentiment but not your numbers. To cover all domestic bases, my contributions should go into C and S funds, with a small portion into the international fund in order not to lose out on potential gains from overseas.
I think I will not put new money into the F-fund, and will get out of there entirely once it achieves a number ahigher than 10.70 which is my basis in that fund. It has always been a sluggish performer and it's recent good performance is something of a conundrum, heh.
How does 40C 40S 20I sound to you? Reasonable?
Dave
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
A rather uneventful day - the Dow Transports and the Dow Utilities held good relative strength. This is a necessary and healthy backing and filling day that provides a pause that refreshes. IBM earnings beat expectations and may help lift the market tomorrow along with the CAT. Waiting on any positive hint from Greenspan. The oceanic is now at $911K and only increased by $11K last week. - energy has been correcting. Take care.
A rather uneventful day - the Dow Transports and the Dow Utilities held good relative strength. This is a necessary and healthy backing and filling day that provides a pause that refreshes. IBM earnings beat expectations and may help lift the market tomorrow along with the CAT. Waiting on any positive hint from Greenspan. The oceanic is now at $911K and only increased by $11K last week. - energy has been correcting. Take care.
grandma
Well-known member
imported post
Birchtree wrote:
"Later,... Westmoreland led thousands of his comrades in the November 1982 veterans march in Washington to dedicate the Vietnam War Memorial.He called it "one of the most emotional and proudest experiences of my life.""
Were you able to attend, BT?
(weed spays are advertised as the best if they go to the root - too bad we couldn't have done the same. Thecurrently used Root Cause Analysis might have helped - but I think that is only for the employees, not the heirachy!)
Birchtree wrote:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050719/ap_on_re_us/obit_westmoreland
"Later,... Westmoreland led thousands of his comrades in the November 1982 veterans march in Washington to dedicate the Vietnam War Memorial.He called it "one of the most emotional and proudest experiences of my life.""
Were you able to attend, BT?
(weed spays are advertised as the best if they go to the root - too bad we couldn't have done the same. Thecurrently used Root Cause Analysis might have helped - but I think that is only for the employees, not the heirachy!)
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
Don't worry Tekno - I'll run with the bulls, got your back on this one.
Suspect a triple point banger tomorrow in the DJIA. Continued lift off.
DMA you dip chit - look who was right. Next stop Dow 10,997 on the way to new all-time highs past 11,723. Wish you were here - you were at least informative.
Don't worry Tekno - I'll run with the bulls, got your back on this one.
Suspect a triple point banger tomorrow in the DJIA. Continued lift off.
DMA you dip chit - look who was right. Next stop Dow 10,997 on the way to new all-time highs past 11,723. Wish you were here - you were at least informative.
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
It seems I missed my triple point banger this week - but then there is next week.
The markets appear to be willing, for the time being, to let the Fed have the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the possibility that the yield curve will invert and the risk that the tightening cycle will go too far. I firmly believe the bond vigilantes are leading the Fed policy. Until proven otherwise the bigger risk in my opinion is being out of the market - not in. You have to be in to WIN. GDP will continue at a respectable rate with inflation remaining low historically - Goldilocks economy. Even now corporate earnings are continuing with upside surprises, much as they've done in recent quarters - on track to increase by about 10% versus consensus forecast of a gain roughly of 7%.
As of Friday, I'm now off the come back trail and will have to start blazing forward into new territory. Remaining cognizant of the pitfalls and traps that may await. DMA and The Technician don't leave me now - hit me with everything you got. There is nothing worse than being blind sided - and I simply do not cut and run no matter the situation - must be my functional psychopathy. Already exceeding my previous oceanic peak and the DJIA is still off from 10,997 before the last 900 point banger. If one can absorb the punches and delight in the obvious pain that comes with lower prices then a position trader can rebound to invest another day.
I was drawing down on targets all day Friday, especially in the oil service sector - has me wondering if the Chinese are heading into this arena or if simply the fundamentals are exceptional. Getting ready to read a link Tekno put up on the cleaver Chinese. They won't be smart until they do the Russian thing and abandon decades of communism.
It seems I missed my triple point banger this week - but then there is next week.
The markets appear to be willing, for the time being, to let the Fed have the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the possibility that the yield curve will invert and the risk that the tightening cycle will go too far. I firmly believe the bond vigilantes are leading the Fed policy. Until proven otherwise the bigger risk in my opinion is being out of the market - not in. You have to be in to WIN. GDP will continue at a respectable rate with inflation remaining low historically - Goldilocks economy. Even now corporate earnings are continuing with upside surprises, much as they've done in recent quarters - on track to increase by about 10% versus consensus forecast of a gain roughly of 7%.
As of Friday, I'm now off the come back trail and will have to start blazing forward into new territory. Remaining cognizant of the pitfalls and traps that may await. DMA and The Technician don't leave me now - hit me with everything you got. There is nothing worse than being blind sided - and I simply do not cut and run no matter the situation - must be my functional psychopathy. Already exceeding my previous oceanic peak and the DJIA is still off from 10,997 before the last 900 point banger. If one can absorb the punches and delight in the obvious pain that comes with lower prices then a position trader can rebound to invest another day.
I was drawing down on targets all day Friday, especially in the oil service sector - has me wondering if the Chinese are heading into this arena or if simply the fundamentals are exceptional. Getting ready to read a link Tekno put up on the cleaver Chinese. They won't be smart until they do the Russian thing and abandon decades of communism.
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