Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

imported post

I'll slip this in while there are no bears around today. Some words of wisdom from a Peter Richardson who says " Recent bubble - burst notwithstanding, I see the US as remaining in a long term bull market that began in earnest back in 1982, and which swung back into gear again after the 1987 meltdown. (that was the time I filled my shoes) There are now too many indices, sectors and individual stocks at or near all time highs to suggest otherwise, in my view. This market has been fed by decelerating inflation, a progressive downtrend of interest rate structure and extraordinary aggressive balance sheet management by corporate America that has kicked up the long term growth rate of earnings to 8%. This extraordinary confluence of fundamentals coupled with the most favorable demographics in modern US history has produced this grand market. I am looking forward to a modest new all time high (1527.46) in the sp500 in the 2008 - 2010 time frame" I hope it arrives a little sooner than that - my ultimate target is 1700. Anyway I'll take what the market will giveth - not a time to be proud.

Will update my oceanic on Monday - it's growing.

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

Another new dawn for the oceanic account - my past peak was $935K on 3/7/05 with the DJIA at 10997. Today I am at $939K with the DJIA at 10,651. What will the next 350 Dow points bring. There was a $28K gain on the week. The temptation is to pack up and go home now that I have recouped my $138K hit - but cowardice is not my nature - greed rules the day. Treading into unmarked territory requires courage and a constant vigilance looking for the next blind side to come and knock me down. A new DJIA all -time high is only 1072 points away - looking forward to the all clear green light. My target remains Dow of 13,000 and beyond - what an adventure. My sp500 target remains 1700 - another adventure for the tugboat. Let's see what this week will deliver.

 

[macdtrader]

imported post

BT,

Congatulations on reaching the new peak of $939,000! What are your top 10 holdings and how did you select them? Thanks and good luck!

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

Thanks for the congratulations - but the portfolio is proprietary. A girl has to have some secrets. Alright I'll give up some holding: CGC, CMC, CNX, CRK, CCK, CVG, CNH, CTP, CR, CSX, CSK, CEM, CYI, and there are many, many more in each alphabet letter. Fortunately the majority of my holdings pay some form of dividend.

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

More and more folks are getting nervous - that's always a good sign.

From the Dow Theory's point of view, the question to ask now is: Will the strength of the DTA pull the Industrials higher or will the weakness of the Industrials signal weakness ahead for the Transports? Under the Dow Theory, the bull market is not confirmed until the DJIA and the DTA surpass their early March 05 highs of 10,997 and 3872. We are so close the tension is developing, especially from those that have missed a good portion of the rally. If the break out comes you'll hear the stampeed from the Herd. I think the Fed will surprise us with a pause after the next rate increase. AG has the whole world convinced he goes to 4% - what a con job.

 

[Spaf]

imported post

Birchtree wrote:

Under the Dow Theory, the bull market is not confirmed until the DJIA and the DTA surpass their early March 05 highs of 10,997 and 3872.

Glad U reading The Dow Theory. But U got the confirmation way to high!

"When the previous peak is surpassed, the beginning of the second leg and a primary bull will be confirmed."

Using the S&P the previous peak was on June 17th at 1216.

Done that myself, a time or 2, or 3!

Rgds :^ Spaf

 

[macdtrader]

imported post

Hi BT,

Thanksfor yourticker symbols and yourmillionaireinvestor insights. Yes, it will be excitingwhen wehave a confirmed bull marketwhichtempts morebears to jump back intothe stock market. Until then, we canenjoy a quiet,unconfirmed, (stealth) bull market.We need not worryaboutthe animal classification of the stock market or whetherDow Theory is correct as longas our TSP balances keep growing aboard the stock index fund rockets.

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

Today everywhere one looks there are new all-time highs. I'm giving my attention to the DTA which today was working on a new all-time high and was up 1.47% for a gain of 55.37 to 3817.06. The previous all-time high of 3872 on 3/05 should be penetrated tomorrow - if that happens I'm seriously expecting the DJIA to move up over 150 points. The DJIA is currently working on its previous high of 10997 that occured on 3/7/05. A break out of the current trading range would place the Dow within range for next week. Next would come the all-time high of 11,723 placed on 1/14/00. That penetration may happen rather quickly - I think the power is just waiting to come in after the Fed meets. Anyone that is standing on the curb is going to really have to pay up when the decision is made to go long - there won't be much

of a correction to provide the opportunity. I do believe the DTA will pull up the DJIA.

 

[robo]

imported post

Dennis,

What are your thoughts on August? With the current economic conditions I think August will be a up month..... I just don't see to many red flags, and the postive numbers just keep coming in...... GDP etc......



Thanks,

Robin

 

[Guest]

imported post

F/U to last post in yourAllocation Changes thread>

Vladimir:We're waiting for Godot"(p14 [url]http://www.hewett.norfolk.sch.uk/curric/english/Godot.htm[/url])

The essence of existentialism concentrates on the concept of the individual's freedom of choice, as opposed to the belief that humans are controlled by a pre-existing omnipotent being, such as God. Estragon and Vladimir have made the choice of waiting, without instruction or guidance, as Vladimir says, "He didn't say for sure he'd come" (p.14), but decides to "wait till we know exactly how we stand" (p.18). [url]http://www.musearts.com/cartoons/pigs/godot.html[/url]

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

Wonderful Woman,

I need to eventually answer Robo regarding August -

Godot is a symbol of hope - and I'm still waiting for Dow 13,000 and the consequent dollars that will be attached. Are you going to challenge me all weekend on the principles of existentialism? I can hardly spell the word. Anyway, have you met my hispanic friend - Jesus? Estragon answered the infamous G fund question what to do now? "Don't let's do anything. It's safer." How to get the immobile cluckers out of the G fund - you can't. Perhaps if Tom decides to recant this week the patrons will follow. I bet he sits tight for the next 10 days at least.

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

Robin,

Aside from what the seasonality charts might suggest that August will be only tepid at best - that is past history - you might as well get a telescope and count planets. August this year portends to be oh so HOT - who knows how many points to be gained or how many new records to be broken. All you G cluckers - read my lips - you are in the middle of a BULL market that is only going to get stronger. Come get some while funds are still cheap. The sentiment numbers indicate over bought but I think most of that is talk - the money has yet to make the walk - and when it arrives with supply short and demand up - lift off. The stock market's good internal workings and favorable fundamentals backdrop suggest that the 2005 summer rally isn't over.

Most of the groups that make up the sp500 have been getting stronger in recent months. More than 80% of the groups (83 of 100) are trading above their 13-week moving averages. In addition, the tally of the cumulative daily advances vs. declines on the NYSE is at a record high. In the past, that kind of absolute and relative strength in breadth measures has pointed to a healthy market for several more months. And if breadth leads price, a bullish breakout of the current trading range should be expected in the not to distant future.

Earnings results are on a pace to increase by about 11%, if they do it would mark the thirteenth consecutive quarter of double digit growth and be four percentage points above the 7% figure that was the consensus before the reporting season began. The third quarter early indications suggest overall increase of about 13%.

Dennis

 

[robo]

imported post

Dennis,

Thanks for your comments........ We really are ina Sweet spot, and the numbers just keep coming in....

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

This may get old after awhile especially when there is no money being made. The oceanic is now at $943K with a minor gain of $3,400 this past week. I would be at $948K but $5K dropped under the radar screen on the decline we had Friday. Now today I probably got that back and then some with the gain in my energy holdings.

Still waiting for a Dow Theory signal, the bull market is not confirmed until both the DJIA and the DTA surpass their early March 2005 highs.I'm out hunting for signals that may indicate a potential top - or at least what to look for when it arrives. So far no sign of the end to this bull market. I have a few details I may describe tomorrow.

 

[GALLO1]

imported post

BT,

I'll be looking forward to your description of the details tomorrow. :^

Steve

 

[pyriel]

imported post

Birch, If there is a pullback that takes place are you planning on bailing to g for a couple of days or week to preserve profit?

P

 

[Guest]

imported post

pyriel wrote:

Birch, If there is a pullback that takes place are you planning on bailing to g for a couple of days or week to preserve profit? P

Pyriel you've got to be joking him, no?

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

Pyriel,

I did take some time posting to you in another thread. I try and practice the virtue of patience. There were 6 corrections in the 2003 move up. The first one was still in March up off the third bottom -6.2%, then there was a-3.6% in June, then a -4.0% in September, and the three remaining were-2.3%,-2.4%, and finally in February 05 a -2.2%. Not very deep and hardly enough time to trade for a profit. I suspect the next move up with strength will provide even less opportunity to trade. The safe strategy is to ride the momentum and catch all the gains.

I believe the three stock funds will be very close in price by the end of the year.

Once all the companies in the sp500 index have reported their earnings, they will be up more than 12% - out weighing ecpectations once again. That would make it the 13th consecutive quarter that S&P 500 operating earnings have posted double digit percentage gains. Second quarter earnings for the S&P 500 energy companies are running 26.4% ahead of a year earlier. And there is so much more- what a wonderful bull market this is going to turn out to be.

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

The price action that the SPX is currently making (over 1245 finally) indicates that it is on track to fulfill, once again, the decennial pattern which calls for it to end the year at higher prices than where it started. Although the Dow is lagging, there is still plenty of time for this to take place in that index as well. Current patterns will first have to undego some significant changes to suggest that the top of the bull market has arrived and that severe weakness lies ahead. I sure am glad I own some of the good performing utility stocks - buy more - don't sell any.

 

[Guest]

imported post

:shock::^