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Buy the dip?
Buy the dip?
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Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
robo
Well-known member
imported post
Your not the only bull I follow Dennis........ I just read Bob Brinker's August Markettimer...... His message was simple....Stay fully invested, stay the course, and ignore the Bad News Bears!!!!!!!!!! You seem to do a very good job of it....... Go BIRCHTREE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Your not the only bull I follow Dennis........ I just read Bob Brinker's August Markettimer...... His message was simple....Stay fully invested, stay the course, and ignore the Bad News Bears!!!!!!!!!! You seem to do a very good job of it....... Go BIRCHTREE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
Robo,
Thanx for the kind words Robin. Bob Brinker is one of 10 prominent letter writers that are maintaining a bullish posture. I see where the Bank of England reduced their Fed rate .25 points. There just isn't any sign of inflation anywhere. The inflation data last quarter were tame and the core PCE deflator came in at 1.8% at an annual rate down from +2.4% in the first quarter, and the market-based PCE deflator slowed to an even tamer +1.6%. Wake up Fed - you need to pause.
It won't be long and we'll be back having discussions regarding the inversion of the yield curve and possibly a subsequent profits recession. I still look for a surprise next week from the Fed. The risk is being out of the market, not in.
Dennis
Robo,
Thanx for the kind words Robin. Bob Brinker is one of 10 prominent letter writers that are maintaining a bullish posture. I see where the Bank of England reduced their Fed rate .25 points. There just isn't any sign of inflation anywhere. The inflation data last quarter were tame and the core PCE deflator came in at 1.8% at an annual rate down from +2.4% in the first quarter, and the market-based PCE deflator slowed to an even tamer +1.6%. Wake up Fed - you need to pause.
It won't be long and we'll be back having discussions regarding the inversion of the yield curve and possibly a subsequent profits recession. I still look for a surprise next week from the Fed. The risk is being out of the market, not in.
Dennis
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Bob Brinker the QQQ guy?
The guy that goes on messages board to pump himself? Misatope/Andrew Lane/Mr. Lane.
Love the QQQ work. Buy recommendation at 96 and another buy recommendation at 30. With never doing a sell recommendation.
Rode the QQQs down 66 points and try to cover his ass by doing another buy recommendation to tidy up his return.
Yup sign me up. :shock:
Bob Brinker the QQQ guy?
The guy that goes on messages board to pump himself? Misatope/Andrew Lane/Mr. Lane.
Love the QQQ work. Buy recommendation at 96 and another buy recommendation at 30. With never doing a sell recommendation.
Rode the QQQs down 66 points and try to cover his ass by doing another buy recommendation to tidy up his return.
Yup sign me up. :shock:
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Everyone thinks the fed is going to stop.
The surprise will be the fed breaks the econony again.
They can not stop. If they stop the USD will be toasted.
Only thing keeping the USD up is the "measure pace" crap. .25 rate hikes that do not even keep up with inflation.
What a joke. The are tossing around .10 rate hikes. :dah:
DMA - Perma Contrarian View.
Everyone thinks the fed is going to stop.
The surprise will be the fed breaks the econony again.
They can not stop. If they stop the USD will be toasted.
Only thing keeping the USD up is the "measure pace" crap. .25 rate hikes that do not even keep up with inflation.
What a joke. The are tossing around .10 rate hikes. :dah:
DMA - Perma Contrarian View.
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Birchtree wrote:
Hedious accounting/birth-death module/seasonality
There is no inflation. :shock: What a joke.
The Perma Contrary View
Birchtree wrote:
The gov data is made up crap.
Hedious accounting/birth-death module/seasonality
There is no inflation. :shock: What a joke.
The Perma Contrary View
robo
Well-known member
imported post
DMA Wrote:
Bob's Portfolio 1 Up +874% since 1-1-88 Aggressive Growth
2 Up +709%""""""""""""" Growth
3 Up +312% ''''''''''''''''''''''''' Balanced
Bob's investment strategies are geared for the average investor like my self, using low cost index funds.... He has made me lot's of money..... I mention him on this board often because we have many average investors and most of us are using index funds..... I disagree with your personal attack towards Bob... Maybe you followed his advice and stayed in the QQQ's to long..... He recommened getting out of the S&P when it was around 1500 and gave a buy signal when it was 800 in 2003.... That's pretty good Market timing if you ask me.... But I do respect your opinion, I just disagree
DMA Wrote:
You are correct DMA Bob did have a bad call on the QQQ's, along with thousands of other investors. But lets point out the good with the bad....
Bob's Portfolio 1 Up +874% since 1-1-88 Aggressive Growth
2 Up +709%""""""""""""" Growth
3 Up +312% ''''''''''''''''''''''''' Balanced
Bob's investment strategies are geared for the average investor like my self, using low cost index funds.... He has made me lot's of money..... I mention him on this board often because we have many average investors and most of us are using index funds..... I disagree with your personal attack towards Bob... Maybe you followed his advice and stayed in the QQQ's to long..... He recommened getting out of the S&P when it was around 1500 and gave a buy signal when it was 800 in 2003.... That's pretty good Market timing if you ask me.... But I do respect your opinion, I just disagree
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Not a personal attack that is the truth.
Those returns look huge.
But that is over 17 years.
The market bottom was not march 2003 it was October 2002. He missed 5%.
I was shorting the QQQs when he did his midnight buy signal. I looked just like this .
His sell call at 1500 was only 40% sell. He hung around for another three months to go 100% sell.
Oh the facts.
Not a personal attack that is the truth.
Those returns look huge.
But that is over 17 years.
The market bottom was not march 2003 it was October 2002. He missed 5%.
I was shorting the QQQs when he did his midnight buy signal. I looked just like this .His sell call at 1500 was only 40% sell. He hung around for another three months to go 100% sell.
Oh the facts.
robo
Well-known member
imported post
DMA wrote:
If you have beat +874% return the last 17 years........... Then you are the man, and I sincerely mean that......... Good Job!!!!!
I stated investing in mutual funds in 1983 and Ihave notcome close to Bob's returns.
I sometimes followed emotions and got in and out of the market at the wrong times... That is why I use Bob as my economics forecaster.... To many on CNBC, etc spin the data..... When your an amateur, like myself, you have to get advice, and I get some from Bob, Birchtree,You,Skip, Tom, my wife, etc............and in the end make my final investment deciscion...
Dennis sorry I'm having this discussion on your link..... I will not let it happen again.
DMA wrote:
If you have beat +874% return the last 17 years........... Then you are the man, and I sincerely mean that......... Good Job!!!!!
I stated investing in mutual funds in 1983 and Ihave notcome close to Bob's returns.
I sometimes followed emotions and got in and out of the market at the wrong times... That is why I use Bob as my economics forecaster.... To many on CNBC, etc spin the data..... When your an amateur, like myself, you have to get advice, and I get some from Bob, Birchtree,You,Skip, Tom, my wife, etc............and in the end make my final investment deciscion...
Dennis sorry I'm having this discussion on your link..... I will not let it happen again.
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
Dennis, Hello there Rocketman!
Just to pass on some information. Now I know you like the C-Fund terribly. She is a a very nice girl with all the large caps. Yea caps!
The leading investors on the site, averaged out would be investing, using 100% about 50%C, 30%S, and 20%I.
The S-fund "Indexes", is not doing as well as her sister "Value" but better than her other sister "Growth". All three, seem to run (lately) in spurts, stop and catch a breath. Maybe like a sprint, rather than a long distnce runner.
I can't say too much about the I-Fund, with it's double edge blade. And, haven't had a lot of luck following other "internationals".
We really need to get Krude in the "can". That Horseman has got to be contained. I don't know if I should take some more "Pepto" or buy a CD.
Hang in ther my friend! Rgds Spaf
Dennis, Hello there Rocketman!
Just to pass on some information. Now I know you like the C-Fund terribly. She is a a very nice girl with all the large caps. Yea caps!
The leading investors on the site, averaged out would be investing, using 100% about 50%C, 30%S, and 20%I.
The S-fund "Indexes", is not doing as well as her sister "Value" but better than her other sister "Growth". All three, seem to run (lately) in spurts, stop and catch a breath. Maybe like a sprint, rather than a long distnce runner.
I can't say too much about the I-Fund, with it's double edge blade. And, haven't had a lot of luck following other "internationals".
We really need to get Krude in the "can". That Horseman has got to be contained. I don't know if I should take some more "Pepto" or buy a CD.
Hang in ther my friend! Rgds
Spaf
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robo wrote:
However he needs to get more international minded.
Also he needs to get off the politics and stuff he does not know anything about.
Also the guests that "pay" to be on his show are getting old.
If you want a better basic guy you may want to check out David Korn. He is a good friend of mine. His newsletter has blown the doors off Bobby and it costs less. Plus he will talk to you via e-mail. Check out Bobby's website you can not even send him an e-mail. Rumour mill is Bobby's contract is not going to get renewed. If you notice he has started to run money and started another newsletter. This may be the last year old Bobby is around.
IMHO. Take care. You are on the right track....but I would not take advice from people on this board. This board is noise.
:shock::shock::shock: Good for TSP stuff - horrible for investing insight.
IMHO.
robo wrote:
Robo I agree he is a good basics guy.DMA wrote:
If you have beat +874% return the last 17 years........... Then you are the man, and I sincerely mean that......... Good Job!!!!!
I stated investing in mutual funds in 1983 and Ihave notcome close to Bob's returns.
I sometimes followed emotions and got in and out of the market at the wrong times... That is why I use Bob as my economics forecaster.... To many on CNBC, etc spin the data..... When your an amateur, like myself, you have to get advice, and I get some from Bob, Birchtree,You,Skip, Tom, my wife, etc............and in the end make my final investment deciscion...
Dennis sorry I'm having this discussion on your link..... I will not let it happen again.
However he needs to get more international minded.
Also he needs to get off the politics and stuff he does not know anything about.
Also the guests that "pay" to be on his show are getting old.
If you want a better basic guy you may want to check out David Korn. He is a good friend of mine. His newsletter has blown the doors off Bobby and it costs less. Plus he will talk to you via e-mail. Check out Bobby's website you can not even send him an e-mail. Rumour mill is Bobby's contract is not going to get renewed. If you notice he has started to run money and started another newsletter. This may be the last year old Bobby is around.
IMHO. Take care. You are on the right track....but I would not take advice from people on this board. This board is noise.
:shock::shock::shock: Good for TSP stuff - horrible for investing insight.
IMHO.
G
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Should we buy the dip today, old wise one?
Should we buy the dip today, old wise one?
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Oh yeah I am 800% short.
:shock:
Oh yeah I am 800% short.
:shock:
robo
Well-known member
imported post
Dennis,
What are your opinions on these comments listed below. S&P currently at 1226, I was thinking 1220 a better support.... Nextweek it will probably be tested.... Shake out week investors, could be a good buying op......
Robin[/font][/font]
Dennis,
What are your opinions on these comments listed below. S&P currently at 1226, I was thinking 1220 a better support.... Nextweek it will probably be tested.... Shake out week investors, could be a good buying op......
[font=arial,helvetica,verdana]
Looks like the S&P 1229 failed to hold, the Dow 10500 still ok........... Oil 62.31
Robin[/font][/font]
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
Everything is speculation at this point - who knows what the next few trading days will deliver - I'm staying with the flow - looking to perhaps use this opportunity to purchase a few new raspberries from the Bear patch..
Under the Dow Theory, the bull market is not confirmed until both the DJIA and the DTA surpass their early March 2005 highs at 10940 and 3872. We are now probably consolidating and building the base necessary to move up and penetrate those two levels. The DTA has been waiting on the Dow. If the March levels are surpassed - the bullish primary trend would be reconfirmed. If it takes a while longer so what- I have many dividends that are automatically reinvested and I'm doing dollar cost averaging in TSP. I have plenty of time - time to buy cheaper and heck maybe even more cheaper. Did anybody ride the triple bottoms of 7/02, 10/02/ and 3/03 - you will never see those prices again - strictly a contrarian play - I always in a bull market like to dollar cost average on the down side - it's the pain I'm after.
The jury will come in with a bearish verdict so long as at least one of the primary Dow averages fails to surpass its early March highs, and then both break below their April lows. Those April lows are 3379.78 for the transports and 10,012.36 for the industrials. We are a long way from those levels and I doubt they will be obtained.
For a bear market signal three things must happen:
1. A correction lasting more than a couple of weeks and shedding more than just a few percent off the market's value must take place.
2. In the rally off the lows set in the correction, one or both Dow averages must fail to surpass their pre-correction highs.
3. Both averages must fall below their respective low set in the initial correction.
I currently am impressed with the intensity of the S fund correction - this might take out some of the worrisome speculation I was starting to see. I'm sure I gave some money back today- but it has a tendency to come and go - like a teenager.
Everything is speculation at this point - who knows what the next few trading days will deliver - I'm staying with the flow - looking to perhaps use this opportunity to purchase a few new raspberries from the Bear patch..
Under the Dow Theory, the bull market is not confirmed until both the DJIA and the DTA surpass their early March 2005 highs at 10940 and 3872. We are now probably consolidating and building the base necessary to move up and penetrate those two levels. The DTA has been waiting on the Dow. If the March levels are surpassed - the bullish primary trend would be reconfirmed. If it takes a while longer so what- I have many dividends that are automatically reinvested and I'm doing dollar cost averaging in TSP. I have plenty of time - time to buy cheaper and heck maybe even more cheaper. Did anybody ride the triple bottoms of 7/02, 10/02/ and 3/03 - you will never see those prices again - strictly a contrarian play - I always in a bull market like to dollar cost average on the down side - it's the pain I'm after.
The jury will come in with a bearish verdict so long as at least one of the primary Dow averages fails to surpass its early March highs, and then both break below their April lows. Those April lows are 3379.78 for the transports and 10,012.36 for the industrials. We are a long way from those levels and I doubt they will be obtained.
For a bear market signal three things must happen:
1. A correction lasting more than a couple of weeks and shedding more than just a few percent off the market's value must take place.
2. In the rally off the lows set in the correction, one or both Dow averages must fail to surpass their pre-correction highs.
3. Both averages must fall below their respective low set in the initial correction.
I currently am impressed with the intensity of the S fund correction - this might take out some of the worrisome speculation I was starting to see. I'm sure I gave some money back today- but it has a tendency to come and go - like a teenager.
puertorico
Member
imported post
I'm wich DMA ...I am 800% short
correction, bubles , inflation , oil ,
to much to be in stock ,next week
go short or sell sell sell ...
I'm wich DMA ...I am 800% short
correction, bubles , inflation , oil ,
to much to be in stock ,next week
go short or sell sell sell ...
Birchtree
Well-known member
imported post
Puertorico,
Close your eyes and hold your nose and jump into this bull market. This is a head fake correction and is an opportunity for you to bargain shop for really good prices. This back to school sale probably will be over quicker than it started - put your faith in the C fund for best outperformance for the next three years. We have a 3000 point up leg on the way - happens when the majority are on the bearish side. You will soon realize some of our younger participants are more talk than walk - but it is a free country so let them talk. They however never make the walk to the bank. I keep hearing there is no profit until you sell - how stupid is that comment? you should only sell when you want to - let your profits run when you can. There is actually nothing worse than selling to soon. 800% short is not credible. No basis of fact and there never will be any facts.
Dennis
Puertorico,
Close your eyes and hold your nose and jump into this bull market. This is a head fake correction and is an opportunity for you to bargain shop for really good prices. This back to school sale probably will be over quicker than it started - put your faith in the C fund for best outperformance for the next three years. We have a 3000 point up leg on the way - happens when the majority are on the bearish side. You will soon realize some of our younger participants are more talk than walk - but it is a free country so let them talk. They however never make the walk to the bank. I keep hearing there is no profit until you sell - how stupid is that comment? you should only sell when you want to - let your profits run when you can. There is actually nothing worse than selling to soon. 800% short is not credible. No basis of fact and there never will be any facts.
Dennis
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Head fake was the rally.
Fed flush. Now the real market is being seen. The rotten core, sugar coated by creative economic data.
:shock: There is no inflation. Just do not look at your bill at the pump.
Head fake was the rally.
Fed flush. Now the real market is being seen. The rotten core, sugar coated by creative economic data.:shock: There is no inflation. Just do not look at your bill at the pump.
robo
Well-known member
imported post
Dennis,
Thanks for your comments............ Even after the sell off last week, none of the tech's I read issused sell signals........ Only caution so far........ Even if the 1220 is broken next week I think 1200 will hold for August..... Next month is another story......... Thanks again, I'm adding stock next week.. I never hit the bottom so yes, I'm buying the pullbacks, and looking out to the year end rally..... I'm currently up around 4% so I can handle around 2% more down side before I get to excited.
Good trading next week. I'm going to go 50% long on any pullbacks next week under 1220.........
Dennis,
Thanks for your comments............
Even after the sell off last week, none of the tech's I read issused sell signals........ Only caution so far........ Even if the 1220 is broken next week I think 1200 will hold for August..... Next month is another story......... Thanks again, I'm adding stock next week.. I never hit the bottom so yes, I'm buying the pullbacks, and looking out to the year end rally..... I'm currently up around 4% so I can handle around 2% more down side before I get to excited.Good trading next week.
I'm going to go 50% long on any pullbacks next week under 1220.........Similar threads
