Stocks opened higher on Wednesday and never looked back as the rally continued following the release of the FOMC policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference. As the market contemplates the potential of a "V" bottom, overhead resistance is still being tested making it a tougher call. Bond yields were down lifting the F-fund, and a move higher in the dollar held the I-fund back a bit on the day.
The gains were impressive and advancing issues and share volume topped decliners by about 3 to 1 on both the NYSE and Nasdaq, but there was some late selling to push the indices off their highs, and the fact that the S&P 500 was again held back by the 200-day EMA, keeps some skepticism alive.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) will need some follow through today to potentially keep the bears from trying to push for another leg lower here at resistance. As is always the case, a test of the recent lows is a possibility if the "V" bottom cannot remain intact, and the battle will continue at that 200-day average. If the bulls can come out on Thursday with another push higher above that resistance, you may see some of the bears start changing teams and create a little FOMO buying.
On the other hand, if the resistance holds and the indices start to rollover again, those who have been buying for the last week may take some profits out of the relief rally.
The action is encouraging, but still vulnerable until the charts improve, and a couple of the charts that still look troublesome are the Nasdaq and the Dow Transportation Index. They are off the lows, but not making much headway - perhaps still concerned about how the April 2 tariffs will impact the economy? Without a break to the upside, these may be bear flags forming.
The I-fund is still the leader for 2025 although yesterday it finally lagged a bit as the dollar has been holding firm at the 200-day EMA support line, and yesterday the UUP bounced off that line for a modest gain.
You can see just how much of an influence the dollar is on the I-fund.
OK, I'll be burying myself in basketball for the next couple of days, but I always have one eye on the market. My obvious concern for the rest of the week is seeing the relief rally off last week's lows failing. Even a test of the lows would be a sizeable decline at this point. The charts show us where some of the lines in the sand are, and if they can't push forward, the bears will jump back in.
Need a distraction from the market volatility? It's time for the Annual March Madness Contest! More info! Deadline to enter is the start of Thursday's first game.
The DWCPF (S-fund) chart is looking more like a "V" bottom than the others, but you can see the roadblocks at and above the current level. A close of 2150 or higher could send in the FOMO buyers.
BND (F-fund) broke out of a bull flag, which was the best case scenario for bonds as support held up well.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
| Daily TSP Funds Return
More returns |
The gains were impressive and advancing issues and share volume topped decliners by about 3 to 1 on both the NYSE and Nasdaq, but there was some late selling to push the indices off their highs, and the fact that the S&P 500 was again held back by the 200-day EMA, keeps some skepticism alive.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) will need some follow through today to potentially keep the bears from trying to push for another leg lower here at resistance. As is always the case, a test of the recent lows is a possibility if the "V" bottom cannot remain intact, and the battle will continue at that 200-day average. If the bulls can come out on Thursday with another push higher above that resistance, you may see some of the bears start changing teams and create a little FOMO buying.
On the other hand, if the resistance holds and the indices start to rollover again, those who have been buying for the last week may take some profits out of the relief rally.
The action is encouraging, but still vulnerable until the charts improve, and a couple of the charts that still look troublesome are the Nasdaq and the Dow Transportation Index. They are off the lows, but not making much headway - perhaps still concerned about how the April 2 tariffs will impact the economy? Without a break to the upside, these may be bear flags forming.
The I-fund is still the leader for 2025 although yesterday it finally lagged a bit as the dollar has been holding firm at the 200-day EMA support line, and yesterday the UUP bounced off that line for a modest gain.
You can see just how much of an influence the dollar is on the I-fund.
OK, I'll be burying myself in basketball for the next couple of days, but I always have one eye on the market. My obvious concern for the rest of the week is seeing the relief rally off last week's lows failing. Even a test of the lows would be a sizeable decline at this point. The charts show us where some of the lines in the sand are, and if they can't push forward, the bears will jump back in.
Need a distraction from the market volatility? It's time for the Annual March Madness Contest! More info! Deadline to enter is the start of Thursday's first game.
The DWCPF (S-fund) chart is looking more like a "V" bottom than the others, but you can see the roadblocks at and above the current level. A close of 2150 or higher could send in the FOMO buyers.
BND (F-fund) broke out of a bull flag, which was the best case scenario for bonds as support held up well.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
