Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

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Hey Mlk-Man you are warmly invited to the golden praise party we are preparing to give DMA before his vacation. It is going to be a wonderful event and will give you the abundant opportunityto saturate him with your praise - he's actually not all that vain really. It's a BYOB affair but milk by the gallon is what we need to compliment the other liquid refreshments. You don't want to miss this one. PM me for more delicate details on your method of expression.

It's time for the oceanic update for last week. I gave back a total of $14K which puts me back on the comeback trail again. The tugboat gave back about $6K. Why is everyone heading for the shelter again. This is only the rain shower that will nurture the growth necessary to propel the indexes higher. The S fund finally hit the proverbial wall - which is actually healthy. Oil will be the next victim. I plan to stay fully invested during this minor storm - and will wait patiently for the herd to get on board. We are a very long way from a sell signal. This is one of many minor storms to expect on the way to Dow 13000. Don't let the Bears rule. Both the transports and the utilities have simply been marking time - there is a lot of bullish strength under the radar - the Bears still can't really deliver that knockout punch as the internals remain solid. But the raspberries are more plump at the moment with this gentle rain - I may have to sacrifice a coal company and pick some up for the portfolio. Get'em when the foolish Bears are preoccupied trying to scare everyone - just walk into their bear patch and help yourself.

 

[Guest]

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I am not a perma bull or perma bear.

If FOMC drops measured pace the stupid stock market will rock for a week until they realize the USD has had it heart ripped out.

I am the contrary guy - not the perma bull guy.

I appreciate your praise on the great call last week on the market top. Thanks.

And the home builders and rally in the morning sell of the the close call today. Really, I appreciate it. You are to kind.

Why not put yourself out there and give us your calls? And not just be a Monday Morning Quarterback and pick apart everyone else. :^

Thanks for the cargo ship update. I do not even want to tell you how much I made today. :shock: :shock: Makes the last two look like peanuts.

 

[Birchtree]

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DMA buddy,

You can be any type you wish to be - but we do appreciate a look into the dark side. I find your information at least worth a read - you remind me a little of Tom Wood and a few other gloom and doom folks - but that's fine, that's what makes a market. If you are making mega dollars good for you - that's your particular take. You have many years left to fine tune your strategy. I try not to make it a practice to pick on any participant - but we're friends and you cherish the banter. That's why you so richly deserve a pre-vacation party.

Now tell me your favorite color so I can finalize the appropriate decor and other furnishings. Pee Wee said he wouldn't miss it for anything. There may even be someone with a camera to take photos - like Tyco's Kozlowski - but I don't think that many people will show.

 

[Guest]

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Dark side? I am showing you reality.

You watch CNBS and Kudlow and Cramer and the rest of the bull banshees and I will tell it like it is.

The consumer is getting squeeze...the stock market is overvalued.

Our trade balance is going to kill us and the USD is going to get it hearts ripped out.

That was not to doom and gloom was it? :shock:

Tech bubble was replaced by housing bubble. Pop!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Birchtree]

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DMA buddy,

Our stock market is not overvalued by any sense of the imagination. Look at the global market graph you posted - USA at a -2%, everyone else is way positive - seems like we need some catching up to do.

Productivity came in above expectation at 2.2 percent and there were segments that posted well into the 4 and 5 percent range. Inflation rose at a mild 1.3percent rate, well below the first quarter revised 3.6 percent advance. The problem is AG is probably going to think like you do and believe none of it - hike, hike and hike again.

With good productivity and low inflation this market can fight the Fed for a long time.

 

[teknobucks]

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wish i was 800% short.....NOT

SQEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEZE...LMAO

 

[robo]

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It was nice to get back above 1230...... Maybe we can creep up the next couple of days and take a shot at the 1240's again.... To early to tell, but the 1220 support did hold up...... We need the follow thru tomorrow for it to have a chance......

 

[Birchtree]

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It is starting to become more and more a stock pickers market - which is frustrating if one own an index. I only wish the C fund owned more energy. But I've got it covered in other places - so we balance.

Could it be that oil is anticipating another mideast conflict. I 've said for awhile that Iran is on the hit list. They are now giving the Iraq insurgency higher grade explosives to conduct terror. They want to build an atomic bomb- we will attack them before this is allowed to happen and France won't try and stand in the way.

You watch, the will voluntarily start reducing their oil exports to drive prices even higher. Perhaps it's time for China to go on the march.

I could realy get nasty towards those dogs - but I'll remain still for now.

 

[Guest]

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Birchtree wrote:

It is starting to become more and more a stock pickers market - which is frustrating if one own an index. I only wish the C fund owned more energy. But I've got it covered in other places - so we balance.

Could it be that oil is anticipating another mideast conflict. I 've said for awhile that Iran is on the hit list. They are now giving the Iraq insurgency higher grade explosives to conduct terror. They want to build an atomic bomb- we will attack them before this is allowed to happen and France won't try and stand in the way.

You watch, the will voluntarily start reducing their oil exports to drive prices even higher. Perhaps it's time for China to go on the march.

I could realy get nasty towards those dogs - but I'll remain still for now.

We get 15-20% of our crude from Venuluza.

We are a hit there also.

SPX 7% oil. Other 93% overvalued. Good luck!

 

[Sr]

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"is starting to become more and more a stock pickers market - which is frustrating if one own an index. I only wish the C fund owned more energy"

Although better than nothing, that is the problem with all L funds. The globalized market is no longer US based, Europe based or just conventional bonds and cash based assets. Asset classes range from Real Estate, commodities, emerging markets, gold, junk bonds......, A typical portoflio of 8-10 asset class thus gets expossure of no more than 5-10% each. Portfolio management is dynamic asset allocation these daysand NOT stock or fund selection per se. Looking at C or S fund for the market is, well, sad indeed.

 

[Guest]

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Sr wrote:

"is starting to become more and more a stock pickers market - which is frustrating if one own an index. I only wish the C fund owned more energy"

Although better than nothing, that is the problem with all L funds. The globalized market is no longer US based, Europe based or just conventional bonds and cash based assets. Asset classes range from Real Estate, commodities, emerging markets, gold, junk bonds......, A typical portoflio of 8-10 asset class thus gets expossure of no more than 5-10% each. Portfolio management is dynamic asset allocation these daysand NOT stock or fund selection per se. Looking at C or S fund for the market is, well, sad indeed.

CONCUR -seven years they have gone NO WHERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:^ Watch SPX 1220.

 

[Birchtree]

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We have been consolidating, correcting and basing in preparation for the next leg up. Simply speaking no pain no gain. Seven years of give back in dues is enough to set the next bull phase. Remember the Nikkei topped at 39,000 and then based for fifteen years - they may lead us to the oasis. They have run up nearly 2000 points in three months - I can't ignore that strength and momentum. Their dues have been paid and they may show us the path.

 

[Guest]

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For 4 years we have been at emergency rates and the market has done squat.

Cheap credit is becoming expensive credit.

Forming a base.

 

[robo]

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[robo]

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Birchtree wrote:

We have been consolidating, correcting and basing in preparation for the next leg up.

We could take a shot at the 1245 level if we can get some follow-thru tomorrow..... I'm thinking we will get some more consolidation/pulll-backs if we hit the 1250's in the next couple of days. As long as the 1220's keep holding it makes for a nice little trading range, and after all it is August! I do think Tom's pullback has a good chance at the 1200's in Sept, but the 1200 levelkeeps slipping away as we keep climbing this wall of worry. The 1220 supportcontinues to show lots of support.... Still no sell from the tech's I follow.... but I took some profits today..... I'm the dumb money so I can do that....If oil keeps going upitcould slow down the party!!!!!!!! If oil pulls back we could see 1275 soon.......Dell just reported, and the stock is down around -7%... It must be the smart money selling, but they are not controlling the market right now. Could put a drag on tech's tomorrow.

 

[robo]

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Sorry to many clicks on the mouse...

 

[Birchtree]

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Technology will continue to benefit from cap ex spending - but not enough people have faith in this area - their memory pain is still to fresh. As a contrarian it would be an area for me to look at, but even I'm not interested - I prefer the energy field. When I was doing my accumulation of positions the whole arena was cheap and ignored so I have some nice buys. I'm probably going to not look the gift horse in the mouth and do a tad of selling tomorrow to enable me to purchase some more steel and food companies. I will be selling a coal company - take a little profit off the table.

 

[Birchtree]

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Posted previously but needs a reminder on a day like today.

The intermediate term momentum indicators do not show any serious negative divergences even though they are at or near overbought levels. Another plus is that the NYSE cumulative daily advance - decline index and the DJU index have made new highs again. See the NYSE graph posted on market talk. Those measures usually peak before, not after, the major peaks on the DJIA and sp500. This present strength implies that the DJIA and S&P probably have not reached their final peaks for the post -2002 cyclical bull market. Market breadth leads to increased prices. We are not observing the combination of overvaluation, internal divergence and momentum based speculation that is the hall mark of late-stage bull markets. I was concerned that we were seeing a small-cap blowoff, but that has been self correcting.

In late stage bull markets, we tend to observe two events. One is loss of uniformity - breadth (on various measures such as the advance-decline line) typically rolls over and starts to diverge from the action of major indexes. The second is a speculative blowoff - neither is presently happening. We are faced with a heck of a wall of worry and it does take courage to stay invested. For those that are curb standing choir practice is promptly at 1900 hours tonight.

 

[robo]

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The S&P climbed back to 1230. The bears just can't get it to 1220....I don't stay in the market when we get close to the high end of the trading range 1240, so I sold Thursday at 1236... Out for Monday!!! I'm still thinking we take out 1245 in August, before we get Tom's pullback!!! But I do agree with Tom this trading range, and current market swings is very risky..... I'm still very much in the 1300 S&P camp by years end, but I'm having fun playing this trading range....I have a 1.5% gain in August, but I'm trying to be like Tekno... He is the real Market timer...

Some comments from a Tech that supports your current position Dennis...

The S&P 500 50-day moving average closed at 1216.01 yesterday. The S&P reached its high of 1216.96 on June 17 before pulling back to 1190 to ready itself for the current upside excursion. The 200-day moving average is now at 1191.11, right in the middle of the support band.

It is certainly true that the risk of a pullback has increased during the last 4 months as the S&P added 100 points. Nevertheless, as long as there is support just 3% below, and a rising Trendline in an Uptrend state, it appears to me to be worthwhile to remain fully invested until our indicators turn down. I know we will give up some profit from the eventual high, but we don't know where that high will be -- it may very well go high enough so that when we finally sell, the prices we get will be higher than they would be if we sold today.


Worries and the bad news bears could present a nice buying opportunity earlynext week..... Monday I hope...

 

[Birchtree]

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Robo,

I notice where Nextel in the S&P is being replaced with Murphy Oil. That's a step in the right direction. I think Tom will be waiting forthe first snows before he gets a serious drop. The global economy is strong enough to pull us along. We will be doing a lot of oil exploration expenditures in Canada - that will continue to help our export situation which is finally showing some strength - up 13%. Just have to ride the bull until at least year end. Wouldn't do me any good to join the choir.

Dennis