Birchtree's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
imported post

Robo,

I've slowly been trying to introduce our participants to the concept of enjoying some pain on occassion. Now this concept comes into play - as the prices get cheaper and one begins to buy more shares at these levels - the accumulation of more shares tends to magnify the pain threshold - a fearless contrarian steps out to do more buying and runs the risk of the prices getting even cheaper. Its like how far down the black hole can you dare go - will sunlight return. And of course these quick bear movements are over usually before you finish shopping - you have to play the odds.

I was looking over my latest Merrill statement and I can see where I bought assets at really low prices compared to their current prices. I try not to pat myself on the back, but rather offer a critical comment - I should have bought even more when I could have - the opportunity is now gone, those prices are gone too. I'm sure you've probably had the same experience - and here comes another potential Bear blessing.

Dennis- could you lend me some of that G reserve - waiting on payday.
 
imported post

I believe there will be an inverted curve as far as short vs. long term interest rates go. It won't indicate recession tho; it will indicate the effect oil prices have on the Fed's policy.

Unlike the recessionary 70's, these higher crude prices are supplimenting the Fed's overnight lending rates to some extent. Oil's price is acting as a drag upon the economy, and if anything it is helping the Fed regarding inflation.

At what interest rate level would the Fed maintain a neutral interest rate policy if a barrel of crude fell to $48-49 dollars? It would be bad for those with ARM mortgages ... the money saved at the pump would in no way compensate for the effect higher rates would have on consumer mortgages ... and the banks that lent out that money.
 
imported post

Quips,

Please Mr Custer I don't want no inverted yield curve. But if it happens because the foreign players keep long rates low it would not be the end of the world - only the end as we know it.

Lead times vary between the inversion of the yield curve and a subsequent profits recession. I still don't think I'll run from this bull market - got the sweet spot for maybe $2M. The shortest lead time was six months (June 1989) and the longest was 24 months (June 1973) and (December 1978). The average was 14 months. Equally important, sp500 earnings growth rates varied from cycle to cycle. The strongest profits growth when the curve inverted was 22% (August 2000) and the weakest was 8% (January 1969). What does it all mean - who cares about them rates at this point anyway? I just want to do the BULL rumble. I'm still waiting for Godot. "Don't let's do anything, it's safer". The BEARS still can't really deliver a knock out punch as the market internals remain solid.
 
imported post

tsptalk wrote:
Birchtree wrote:
I keep hearing there is no profit until you sell - how stupid is that comment?
Click to expand...
I agree. And along the same line... there is no loss until you sell. I never understood that thinking.
Click to expand...
Like in the F fund you gave 4 months worth of gains in less then two weeks.

People in the last bear market would say they would sell when they got back to even again and lost another 50%. Five years later they are still underwater.

:) How stupid is that?

Until you take the money off the table that is called a "paper gain". The way the market is right now you can lose your "paper gain" in two days....that took you all year to achieve.

Insiders are selling like their shares were on fire - you got Jimmy Craper and Birchy telling you to hold on.

Just like 2000 :shock:. Sheep hold on while the insiders get the benefit of higher share prices.
 
imported post

DMA,

Hey guy, I'm surprised you haven't noticed that the S fund might have been on some kind of parabolic run - overpriced by speculators chasing performance momentum. That does leave me a bit worried. The recent $.41 pull back is a good start to bring it back some.

That cute little F fund only gave back $.16 - not much gain for four months - who would waste valuable time and money on such a slow boat to nowhere. This is a bull market - go ahead kick up the VIX - I prefer 2% volatility rather than 1% of recent.
 
imported post

F fund is a short term bond fund.

.16 is a huge move.

In what? 3 years F fund has moved .62 cents. Giving back .16 in less then two weeks after only going up .62 cents in 36 plus month is HUGE.

At least in my idiot mind. :)

Contrarian view - everyone is bullish - you are the contrary view?

You really need to change that like Tom said. You are confusing the people trying to learn the terms.
 
imported post

Anyone notice when TSPTOGO recommends the stock funds birchy is cheering him on.

When tsptogogos 100% g - silence???

:^ I like silence. I also like when Tekno says

"THIS SUCKER IS GOING TO ROCK"

Sure 300 DOW lose hit within days. :D

My little indicators.
 
imported post

Gosh you are correct about Miller - I don't need his perspective anymore - I got you to help me there. Do you have an opinion on the smart money being oh so like you,11% bullish I think. Tell me more about small-caps - you must be short at least some in that arena - that would be a good move in my contrary opinion.
 
imported post

Home builders, retail, auto parts - Delphi is my largest short right now in the auto parts sector- lots and lots and lots of problems there.

Remember thursday I said short Chiquita Brands.

Fell another 12% on Friday. I was 300% short on it expecting a bounce...keep falling and falling and falling. My biggest mistake on Friday was not shorting harder.

She may bounce on Monday morning then I expect a sell off in the afternoon.

Bounce in the morning I will be adding to my short positions. Will cover after FOMC announcement. :D Probably around 3pm on Tuesday. Then go on vacation for a month..............:shock:

w
 
imported post

w


that little blip up on Friday (around 10am) I went from 800% short to 300% short. My biggest mistake of the week. Damn me. :shock:

Should of went 1000% short.

Water on the bridge now...hindsight I was posting here and should of been watching my positions.

But that cost me A LOT of dough. :(
 
imported post

largest retail short

w


largest home builder short:

w


largest short position I hold right now:

w


It is getting very hard to borrow sales to short now.

So I am stuck with what I got for now. I should not of been posting here.

I let a lot of stuff pass me by. :shock:
 
imported post

I know I gave back some coin over the last two days - stand up a take it like a bull.

No panic from this vantage point - only more opportunity to enjoy lower prices.

The intermediate term momentum indicators do not show any serious negative divergences even though they are at or near overbought levels.

Another plus is that the NYSE cumulative daily advance-decline index and the DJ Utilities Index have made new highs. Those measures usually peak before, not after, the major peaks on the DJIA and the sp500. Their present strength implies that the DJIA and sp500 probably have not reached their final peaks for the post-2002 cyclical bull market phase.

Sentiment indicators have shown a clear swing to greater optimisum in recent months, but one particularly important measure - the CBOE put-call ratio - remains at a favorable level. The ratio's 25-day average is 84%, in recent years, that figure has fallen to 75% or lower before the market has had a significant decline.
 
imported post

Birchtree wrote:

No panic from this vantage point - only more opportunity to enjoy lower prices.
Click to expand...




Some comments from The Rational Investor Jamie Dlugosch. I thought you might enjoy this article Dennis from a Rational investor, since your a BIG BAD BULL!!!


Article dated: 4 Aug 2005


Conditions suggest strong growth ahead


The market has taken a short breather here as we hit the dog days of summer. We have had a nice run of late and it makes rational sense that we would have a bit of consolidation. I have no problem with some selling or sideways trade here.

The call of the bears is not very compelling at the moment. Many seem to be predicting a fall for stocks based on the broader issues of rising interest rates and higher oil prices. Indeed these issues are potentially worrisome, but I would contend that relatively speaking these issues do not merit the end of the world scenarios bandied about by the fear mongers.

The mere fact that stocks have moved higher does not in and of itself imply a negative. In fact the market seems to be caught in this two step forward, two step backward trade as a result of such thinking. The talk smells of envy in my opinion given that some are indeed making a profit in this difficult environment.

Ultimately, it all comes down to valuation on a macro and micro level. At the macro level, our core theory at the moment is a simple contention that double digit profit growth followed by a sideways to negatively traded market makes stocks cheap. The economic data supports higher valuations and yet stocks are having difficulty moving forward.

On a micro level we can find plenty of individual stories where valuations are attractive. Most of the stocks in our portfolio here would fit that bill. Many trade for single digit multiples of earnings due to forecasts (premature in our opinion) about imminent demise. As profit reports continue to shine, so too should the performance of the stocks.

It would be tempting to take some profits here as double digit gains dominate the portfolio. I will resist that temptation as valuations remain compelling, the bear case is weak, and economic conditions suggest strong growth.

Either you believe or you don’t.
 
imported post

Strong growth was based on home building.

:) Yields aregoing up.

Where will the strong growth come from next - foreclosures???

:shock: People moving out of their over price houses to apartments. :shock:

I am researching public moving companies now. All ready own public foreclosure companies and apartment REITS. :shock::D:P;)
 
imported post

Where is my little contrary indicator?

Post like his hair on fire when the market is going up.

Down - The Sounds of Silence. :)

------------

I really like the Chinese can come the the U.S. to vacation? That is what you want the U.S. to be, a cheap vacation spot. :shock: You want fries with that, Sir. Can I refill your coke?

Truthfully we are all ready the cheap vacation spot. Go to the theme parks and you feel like you are in Euro Disney. No one is speaking Da English. :(
 
imported post

DMA wrote:
Where is my little contrary indicator?

Post like his hair on fire when the market is going up.

Down - The Sounds of Silence. :)

------------
Click to expand...
Keep in mind Birch, this from a guy who didn't post from June 24th to July 21st. During which time the C fund was up 3.7%............... Of course the S fund was up 6.3%, but that's another story............:P Since Friday, when we had the big pullback, he has posted 139 times.

Who's hair is on fire.........................
 
imported post

Not to much damage today, but if the 1220 level breaks down it could mean trouble.... One tech I follow says big money is selling fast and get out tomorrow if 1220 is broken... Other two tech's still cautious and no sell signals yet...... Hmmmmmmmmmm The Feds wording tomorrow could be a big mover.... Oil is starting to become a bigger player......
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Stocks face new policies, a debt ceiling, and liquidity
Replies
0
Views
150
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - A rally, tariffs, and Apple earnings
Replies
0
Views
114
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Despite some choppy action, the bulls remain in control
Replies
0
Views
144
tsptalk
tsptalk
TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up - Top Investors of August
Replies
0
Views
3K
TommyIV
TommyIV
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - The Fed feeds stock market a Goldilocks outlook
Replies
0
Views
868
tsptalk
tsptalk
Back
Top