Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

imported post

Grandma,

Once you have a profit to help act as a buffer you will gain more courage. I bought my latest position at $12.60 and missed the $12.44 price the previous day. I'm willing to let my buffer go before I pull the trigger to jump into the G. Also let your allocation do the dollar cost averaging buys. Even if you end up pulling the trigger later on leave your allocation steady. Buying all the way down can be sweet - but buying all the way up is so much sweeter. Our natural instinct during periods of volatility is to stop the pain, not to endure it with patience. Give me pain and give me lower pricing while I endure the misery. To buy during periods of intense selling means leaving the safety of the shelter, standing out, and risking humiliation.

 

[macdtrader]

imported post

Birchtree,

Thanks foryour enlightening comments on the S&P 500. Itookyour adviceand followed your example byputting 100% into the TSP stock funds. Inoted that theI Fund price has been the highest of all TSP funds since Dec. 3, 2003 butSis catching up with Irapidly. In myhumbleopinion, you couldachieve greater diversification. As you are aware, thereat least5000 stocksin the Wilshire4500 completion index.You could put as little as1%into the S Fund, increase your diversification, and perhaps increase your returns. Best of luck to you and please continue yourinformative comments.

 

[GALLO1]

imported post

Birchtree wrote:

Grandma,

Once you have a profit to help act as a buffer you will gain more courage. I bought my latest position at $12.60 and missed the $12.44 price the previous day. I'm willing to let my buffer go before I pull the trigger to jump into the G. Also let your allocation do the dollar cost averaging buys. Even if you end up pulling the trigger later on leave your allocation steady. Buying all the way down can be sweet - but buying all the way up is so much sweeter. Our natural instinct during periods of volatility is to stop the pain, not to endure it with patience. Give me pain and give me lower pricing while I endure the misery. To buy during periods of intense selling means leaving the safety of the shelter, standing out, and risking humiliation.

BT

You said to let your allocation do the dollar cost averaging and to leave your allocations steady even if you bale. Are you moving your interfund transfers evenly with your allocations, i.e. 100%/100%?

I'm still trying to grasp how much of anadvantage there is in buying extra shares when the market is low. If this is advantageous, why should't a person just leave everything in "C" until there about ready to collect on their TSP? At what point would it not matter how many shares you have.

Thanks for any info, I'm just trying to clearly grasp the various strategies.

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

Gallo1,

The fewer shares one has the less pain they experience on the down side. The objective is to accumulate as many shares as possible over the alloted time you have available. Once you have 20,000 shares or more the changes in price begin to make a difference in your life. Staying in one fund to acquire as many shares as possible is a profitable strategy - this was the original design of TSP - save for retirement and at the same time participate in the dynamics of our great economy. The more shares you work with the more dangerous this becomes - but the more rewarding the potential to gain. Dollar cost averaging allows one to buy more shares when we are in a down market like 2000 to 2003. You also get to buy on the upside like in 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, and you can buy in nowhere markets like 2004. Time is the critical factor when you are in a move to accumulate. The G fund should be used only as a short term harbor - keep the money dollar cost averaging - when you do an interfund transfer you will pick up any excess fund shares that have accumulated. Many folks have their allocation going to the G fund for simplicity - but I'd rater buy more shares when playing the odds. You can't go wrong with the C fund at this point in the cycle. The more you acquire the more you'll make.

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

Macdtrader,

Thankyou for your comments - you seem to be nicely diversified across the C,S,andI.

My objective at this point in the investment cycle is not diversification but rather a position of concentration. I want the power I have in my portfolio to work on my behalf. I want the benefits the large caps will provide if the economy does in deed slow down to a GDP under 3%. If I could get more than 100% leverage on the C fund I certainly would take the offer - but I have to work with the potential I currently own. At my age everyday brings a another opportunity. I want to take the risk and maximize my potential all the way to a C fund price above $15.00.

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

Just a quick update on the oceanic for those who may be interested.

I made $19,000 last week, this still leaves me down $56,000 to go to get back to my previous peak of $935,000 obtained on 3/7/05. Got a good rally this morning, may not be so dull this summer. Thinking - just thinking at this point of perhaps peeling off a little energy and shifting into my supermarket positions. Not in any big hurry to do anything at this point - believe I finally got some of the sweet spot.

 

[Guest]

imported post

Birchtree wrote:

Just a quick update on the oceanic for those who may be interested.

I made $19,000 last week, this still leaves me down $56,000 to go to get back to my previous peak of $935,000 obtained on 3/7/05. Got a good rally this morning, may not be so dull this summer. Thinking - just thinking at this point of perhaps peeling off a little energy and shifting into my supermarket positions. Not in any big hurry to do anything at this point - believe I finally got some of the sweet spot.

Well Birch I've been in a hurry and I think I'll be there any day now. Of course, my peak doesn't equal yours.My anticipated plume isa mere $500K.

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

Wonder Woman,

How revealing you are today. Your plume is by no means a mere. That is quite a substantial power base. When you get right, then what? We will both have the same problem - how long do we stay and how high do we go before a parachute is the exit of choice. Some of the Elliot Wave folks are talking one more blow off top before the market heads much lower. That doesn't scare me as long as I can consult your library. Congratulations will be inorder when you hit the double - ready to play and use that power base and show the good folks how it's done. I'm certainly going to take my best shot in both the oceanic and tugboat accounts. I think this market may finally be preempting the Fed. If so, it's time for lift off - come get on board.

 

[pyriel]

imported post

I really like people putting in their $$$ figures in their TSP and other investments. I don't think they are bragging. I feel that it is helping me try to reach the same goal. I have a paltry 20K in my account even though i've been maxing my TSP since it opened up to service members. Wife and I will go max for 15k each next year... She is FERS so she gets some kind of matching... She's been maxing (whatever is allowed) since 1999.

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

Pyriel,

I certainly wasn't proud of the fact that I took a $138,000 hit over a two month period of time and to the tune of 900 points down. But I decided to put my pain out in the open so others can see how a contrarian works - at both being a winner and a loser. I opened my tugboat account to RDL over the weekend. Every one probably knows by now - maybe DMA doesn't yet. Since it's not polite to relive history or do any quarterbacking from the past - I entered my first TSPtalk purchase on 5/4/05 to buy the C fund at $12.60 and acquired a little over 30,000 shares for around $378,000. I decided to go 100% and maintain my allocations the same. I would have in retrospect made more money if I had purchased the S fund - but I had and still have my reasons for not doing such. I guess I am a position trader and will hold my position until circumstances dictate it prudent to make a change. Your account balance will certainly grow over time and you will be larger than I am in less time when I was your age. Time is the only factor you cannot control - but now the new limits make it easier for others to come on stronger - plus the catch ups really help give the power base a boost. Through my whole career I've always been the lonely investor - did everything myself and sometimes the hard way - gained a lot of experience that I don't mind sharing. And from this web site, I'm still learning. That Teknobucks can sure keep one busy. Many heads helping each other will I'm sure end up being rewarding to me. Many more years (a few anyway) to go and dollars to make. Take care and thanks for the support.

 

[garnertr]

imported post

Don't know about others, but I'm 100% amazed at the amount of money many of you have in your funds.

I have just under 10K, I know nothing to sneeze @, but when I see the others and their figures then I aspire to want to be at that level, so, pls keep posting those figures...

I have only a little under 10K and my next goal is 15K

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

This evening I'm going to take the liberty to preach for a moment - so if you have a weak constitution please move on to another thread. Thanks, I don't want to offend any of my Dove friends.

Today was and is a sad day. I must tell you that if I were twenty again I would gladly join in the hunt for the enemy, only this time it would not be NVA regulars or Vietcong but the fanatical islamic extremists. How many of these maggot insurgent terrorists that belong or ally with the al-Quaida will we and the free world have to simply destroy by killing them? There is a whole generation of Muslims that have been incorrectly indoctrinated in the evil principles of hatred. All the fanatical killers should and will be sent to burn in Hell with their lord of darkness, Satan. They think they have Allah on their side - such a stupid ignorant bunch of slime suckers.

And now the British red coats are coming to Bagdad in great numbers, perhaps to be joined by the Australians, and you can rest assured they will clean out the maggot havens that are so prevalent there. Iranian Mullahs - keep your mouths shut - you are on the short list to join your terrorist kind in Hell also. You will never have an atomic bomb - only burned and charred bodies.

 

[GALLO1]

imported post

AMEN!

 

[Mike]

imported post

Al-Qaeda thrives somewhat in Europe due to the stratification of society over there. Different ethnic groups don't really assimilate like in America, they remain closed off / shunned - which tends to foster bitterness, which is the type of thing terrorist groups exploit to recruit people to "the cause". This is why you are more likely to find terrorist cells in places like Germany and France than in the US.

 

[The_Technician]

imported post

Birchtree wrote:

This evening I'm going to take the liberty to preach for a moment - so if you have a weak constitution please move on to another thread. Thanks, I don't want to offend any of my Dove friends.

Today was and is a sad day. I must tell you that if I were twenty again I would gladly join in the hunt for the enemy, only this time it would not be NVA regulars or Vietcong but the fanatical islamic extremists. How many of these maggot insurgent terrorists that belong or ally with the al-Quaida will we and the free world have to simply destroy by killing them? There is a whole generation of Muslims that have been incorrectly indoctrinated in the evil principles of hatred. All the fanatical killers should and will be sent to burn in Hell with their lord of darkness, Satan. They think they have Allah on their side - such a stupid ignorant bunch of slime suckers.

And now the British red coats are coming to Bagdad in great numbers, perhaps to be joined by the Australians, and you can rest assured they will clean out the maggot havens that are so prevalent there. Iranian Mullahs - keep your mouths shut - you are on the short list to join your terrorist kind in Hell also. You will never have an atomic bomb - only burned and charred bodies.

Actually, Birch....you made a point that I'm not sure many haven't realized.....the Clerics and Mullahs use the relligion to maintain or obtain power......a truely evil scheme of mankind.....I haven't yet figured out why they haven't been targeted and eliminated......personally I believe they should do enough investigation into which one on them are on the bad side and invite them all to a meeting to meet Allah.....it serves them so....eliminate them and you will eliminate the problem......

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

I don't want to count my baby Chicken Littles yet, but this sure is starting to feel like a lift off. I'll need the thrusters to kick in to get me up over the 10454 level to establish a new support line. The A/D is running on a 3 to 1 ratio today. Will need several of these trading days back to back and that will provide credence to this move up. Could finally be starting the second leg - not such a dull summer - it would be a classic bull move. Who's coming along....for this ride? Peace be still.

 

[The_Technician]

imported post

Can't say, ....... but I do have to get ready for Dennis the Menace.....going Hurcon 5 soon.....:shock:.good luck to those who are also in the same boat.....:^

Got Food??? Got Water??? Got Ice made??? Got batteries??? Got Gas????

:dude:

 

[Birchtree]

imported post

The Technician,

I am truly sorry for what you are about to encounter - hope you and the family, and that includes all pets - stay safe. We all want minimal property damage - last year was enough for a lifetime. Take care.

Dennis

 

[GALLO1]

imported post

The Technician wrote:

Can't say, ....... but I do have to get ready for Dennis the Menace.....going Hurcon 5 soon.....:shock:.good luck to those who are also in the same boat.....:^

Got Food??? Got Water??? Got Ice made??? Got batteries??? Got Gas????

:dude:

Hey Tech,

I've got you and everyone in Dennis's path in my prayers. I just made a PCS to Italy, in January,from east Tampa, FL. Last year it got real old by the end of the hurricane season and the devastation was tragic. I still own a home in the Tampa area. If Charlie would have taken the path that it was projected to take, Tampa Bay still would be recovering as I'm sure Punta Gorda is still doing.

Hunker down and good luck.

 

[GALLO1]

imported post

Birchtree wrote:

Who's coming along....for this ride?

BT,

I'm on board. I'm 100% C as of yesterday 7/7. By the way what do I need to do tostart an allocation page?