Short Term Outlook

[clester]

I've been looking for any reason to stay in s fund. Here are a few. S fund is in a cup and handle formation which is bullish if it breaks above the handle. The RSI has worked off the high reading now in the fifties. As long as it stays above 50 it's still bullish. Double top but other indices have already broken out. Uptrend from December still intact but getting close to bottom line. Everyone looking for pullback still, so contrarian view would be to buy. Economic data is getting better. Transports have held the 50 day.

But, flat tops usually bring market drops. Gasoline is high. We are up big for just 2 months into the year. S fund has been lagging C fund. Europe?

So, all in all, things still look positive but getting iffy.

 

[nnuut]

Sept. 21, 2012, 7:11 a.m. EDT
Dumb money sees a rally, so gird for a dip

By Jon D. Markman

Action on Wall Street continues to look like a prizefight in which the combatants are too exhausted to do more than wrap each other up and lean against the ropes while they catch their breath.
It is tempting to think that the flat action since last week is just a quick time out for the bulls. And it could be. But there is some evidence emerging that a longer rest period may be in store.
Jason Goepfert over at Sentiment Trader has for years been keeping record of the differing expectations for a rally from what he calls the "smart money" vs. the "dumb money." At present, 67% of the dumb money is expecting a rally vs. 29% of the smart money.

Dumb money sees a rally, so gird for a dip - MarketWatch

 

[ILoveTDs]

You just call Birch dumb? :laugh:

 

[Khotso]

Sept. 21, 2012, 7:11 a.m. EDT
Dumb money sees a rally, so gird for a dip

By Jon D. Markman

Dumb money sees a rally, so gird for a dip - MarketWatch

Tom pointed that out a few days ago as well. I just wish it would hurry up and dip then so I can get back into CSA and watch it go back up!

 

[nnuut]

I'm hoping for it to continue up!

 

[Khotso]

I'm hoping for it to continue up!View attachment 20401

Haha. Yeah, I keep forgetting many of us are already in equities! Good luck then!

 

[wavecoder]

oh yeah we'll see a dip alright, but not until the russell 2000 hits 880

i don't mind being called dumb money, the smart money losing their asses caused the financial crisis, shows how much they know lol.

 

[Aitrus]

Yeah, keep going up and pull me out of a bad move.

 

[nnuut]

North Korea declares its H-bomb test a success

• Dow set for triple-digit loss | N. Korea bomb shivers Asia markets

 

[nnuut]

U.S. sees hiring surge in November as economy adds 266,000 new jobs

 

[nnuut]

5 things to know before the stock market opens Wednesday

PUBLISHED WED, FEB 26 20206:47 AM ESTUPDATED AN HOUR AGO


Matthew J. Belvedere@MATT_BELVEDERE
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/26/5-things-to-know-before-the-stock-market-opens-february-26-2020.html

 

[Bullitt]

From Sentimentrader.

When the S&P 500 rallied the day after a presidential election, it was higher 3 months later 90% of the time by an average of +4.4%. When it dropped the day after, then it was higher 3 months later only 50% of the time with an avg return of -0.9%.

 

[bmneveu]

From Sentimentrader.

I would caveat this with... is today the effective day after the election, or should we wait until the day after we have a result?

 

[Bullitt]

Bearish engulfing candle played out today in SPX.

Stocks do go down and wouldn't that be something if these insane IPO's mark some sort of a top.

 

[Bullitt]

To add to the above post, a black candle on IPO day is not good. The bungee cord is retracting.