Short Term Outlook

[Bquat]

1353... not likely, at least on this move...

A think 1320 will stop any big move upward. We need major consalidation or a major kick-butt news right at that level. Hopefully 1304 can cause short covering. Too much watch and see in this market for a major move.JMHO

 

[clester]

Well, I for one feel better about the market than yesterday morning. The pop was sold but not a lot. We held on to small gains. That's what we née to keep this rally going. A slow grind up. I expect we may test last years high by May if this continues. Still watching for an opportunity to sell since I'm in. As we get closer to the end of the month there might be a time for a trade if we can hold on.

 

[clester]

Well, I for one feel better about the market than yesterday morning. The pop was sold but not a lot. We held on to small gains. That's what we née to keep this rally going. A slow grind up. I expect we may test last years high by May if this continues. Still watching for an opportunity to sell since I'm in. As we get closer to the end of the month there might be a time for a trade if we can hold on.

The market is going perfectly in my mind. Slow grind up, not too much enthusiasm, and frustrating those not in while making those that are in nervous. I know I'm getting nervous and have the itch to lock in profits. In a good month C fund will go up at most 5%. It has done more though. We are at 4% now. That's a pretty good month. We still have over a week to go for this month.
this is when you need the indicators and charts. RSI is nearing 70 but still has some room. Uptrend still intact. I'm watching the lower trend line for a hint as to when to get out. I think that time is near. I'm thinking sometime next week. It's hard to hold over weekend though with this news driven market

 

[clester]

Looks like a down day today. That's a good thing. It shouldn't be much because I think folks are in the buy the dip mode and will jump at a decent chance. If we could have a sideways move like the last couple consolidations then that would be very positive. The last basing area from last week would be a good place for a sell stop, should we break below. RSI is nearing 70 that means be careful.

 

[clester]

I'm surprised we haven't had a pullback. The dips are being bought every day. I still say the markets are acting perfectly. They are frustrating the bears and bulls. Big swings have all but stopped and we slowly grind up. There is not a good time to buy because we can't get a good pullback. It will happen, of course. But when? Markets tend to go farther up or down than you would think. So, I'm watching the lower trend line and RSI for clues. There are lots of indicators. Everyone has there favorite. Since weare getting near the end of the month, we may have a chance to make a trade. New set of trades next week. I think we are getting close to a pullback but I'm not guessing. Let it ride untill it breaks, but that is hard.

 

[jkenjohnson]

I'm surprised we haven't had a pullback. The dips are being bought every day. I still say the markets are acting perfectly. They are frustrating the bears and bulls. Big swings have all but stopped and we slowly grind up. There is not a good time to buy because we can't get a good pullback. It will happen, of course. But when? Markets tend to go farther up or down than you would think. So, I'm watching the lower trend line and RSI for clues. There are lots of indicators. Everyone has there favorite. Since weare getting near the end of the month, we may have a chance to make a trade. New set of trades next week. I think we are getting close to a pullback but I'm not guessing. Let it ride untill it breaks, but that is hard.

I have been anticipating a pullback also, but I have been wrong again and again.

 

[clester]

I have been anticipating a pullback also, but I have been wrong again and again.

Is this the start of our pullback? Or will the dip be bought today? I have a feeling it will be bought again. If it doesn't then we may get our pullback. Maybe a 2 day one. Apple reports after the close I think.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Is this the start of our pullback? Or will the dip be bought today? I have a feeling it will be bought again. If it doesn't then we may get our pullback. Maybe a 2 day one. Apple reports after the close I think.

With the futures only being down 44 points, I tend to agree that the dip will get bought up. With that said, it will probably go the other way.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Is this the start of our pullback? Or will the dip be bought today? I have a feeling it will be bought again. If it doesn't then we may get our pullback. Maybe a 2 day one. Apple reports after the close I think.

Futures have dropped even more since my last post.

 

[clester]

With the futures only being down 44 points, I tend to agree that the dip will get bought up. With that said, it will probably go the other way.

It may, but that's not necessarily bad. A two day pullback would be perfect as long as its not too deep. With no more trades I can't play a two day drop. If it turns out worse than that then I am out. I'm thinking 1292 or below as a problem.

 

[clester]

I'm a little surprised the futures aren't up big this morning with Apple's blowout quarter. I think Europe is holding us down a little. The Nasdaq is positive but not a lot. The Nasdaq and the s fund are the leaders and both are doing well. I should have stayed in the s fund. I went to c fund because it had outperformed for a few months.

If we had had a big pop this morning I was going to sell because it would have put things in extreme overbought conditions. As it is, I think the slow grind up will continue for a while longer. We can't get much of a pullback.

 

[clester]

I'm a little surprised the futures aren't up big this morning with Apple's blowout quarter. I think Europe is holding us down a little. The Nasdaq is positive but not a lot. The Nasdaq and the s fund are the leaders and both are doing well. I should have stayed in the s fund. I went to c fund because it had outperformed for a few months.

If we had had a big pop this morning I was going to sell because it would have put things in extreme overbought conditions. As it is, I think the slow grind up will continue for a while longer. We can't get much of a pullback.

Well, we got our pop. Wish it was before noon though. RSI for c and s is over 70 and both funds up over 5% for the month. Two unusual events and has me thinking I will exit stocks tomorrow. Also, we have new trades next Wednesday.

The time may finally be right for a pullback.

 

[clester]

Interesting observation: since late December we have a pattern repeated 4 times. A pop, then 4 days of sideways action, then another pop etc...

Of course, now that I have said that it will stop.

 

[Show-me]

Interesting observation: since late December we have a pattern repeated 4 times. A pop, then 4 days of sideways action, then another pop etc...

Of course, now that I have said that it will stop.

I noticed that too.

 

[clester]

Got my finger on the sell button. Everything points to a pullback but people that have missed out keep buying the dips. Think I will let it ride for now. 1310 area is my stop for now.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Got my finger on the sell button. Everything points to a pullback but people that have missed out keep buying the dips. Think I will let it ride for now. 1310 area is my stop for now.

I was also thinking about taking my gains and getting out, even though my system is still on a buy. I think everything is close to being overbought and any negative news may cause a quick drop.

 

[SPN46er]

Going to be watching UUP (US Dollar Index Bullish ETF) today. Currently its trading between a large ascending channel (22.75 - 21.50). Its about halfway down in the channel and there is still some downside to be had possibly. Also there is a lingering open gap that has yet to be filled at around the 21.25 level. Could boost the Euro and be good for the I Fund but we shall see.

http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=UUP&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

 

[clester]

Got my finger on the sell button. Everything points to a pullback but people that have missed out keep buying the dips. Think I will let it ride for now. 1310 area is my stop for now.

I decided to sell yesterday. We may have another 4 day sideways move and then up but the risk for a decent pullback is growing. RSI went over 70 and is now back below. Sentiment seems to be too bullish now. We are up big for the month already ( over 5 % for c fund). Also, new trades next week. The problem for me is now when to get back in. If we stay above the 1310 area or even a little lower we are still in uptrend.

 

[James48843]

The trend is our friend.

I too am poised to sell any moment, but hey, it's like that little energizer bunny. It keeps going, and going, and going, and going.

 

[Sensei]

Looking at the European indices, and they look pretty awful. Big H&S formations. But there is still quite a bit of time, and Europe closed way up yesterday. Plus, as bad as the charts look, the actual damage is under 1% so far. I'm pretty sure we'll head lower at the open. Where to from there?