Playing the I fund

[ebbnflow]

I agree with fabijo. I think they are about twenty cents light. If you moved into the I fund for tomorrow, you should get a nice bonus.

Dave
<><

What about the people who moved out of the I Fund today? They might get burned twice, not fair. :worried:

 

[frokker]

What about the people who moved out of the I Fund today? They might get burned twice, not fair. :worried:

See, that's what I mean!!

 

[Gilligan]

These FV's should be the exception and not the norm, but I swear it seems like we get about 2 a week!
I understand the concept for it, but it just doesn't seem right to me. I mean who regulates them to make sure it's legal? I bet thay make tons of $$$ on FV's at our expense.

From the tsp.gov web site:
"Fair value pricing in the TSP's I Fund occurs less than 20% of the time."


20% of the time would be one day per week. So far we have had two this week. I think it was 2 weeks ago when we had three FVs.

 

[nnuut]

We just had sex with the "I" fund and were on the receiving end!

 

[Birchtree]

Gents,

It's a retirement fund component designed to be accumulated by the many - if you pistol shoot the fund then you are expected to either win or accept the occassional loss from the FV. It's just part of your over head in doing business with Barclays.

 

[FundSurfer]

$18.67! That stinks. Japan up 3.08%, Europe up 0.25%, UK down .12%, Dollar index down 0.15% (which is like up 0.15%). MSCI was up 1.67%.

We got minus 0.4%. I know the I-fund owed 20 cent and that is about 1.06%. If we had given back just the FV we owed, we'd still be up 0.6%. Instead the took the FV back and then some. We (I cause I bailed) got hosed. That 1.67% was today and the dollar kept dropping not reverse. I hate the I-fund....

This does tell us that the FV is not just based on the dollar but rather a GUESS at what foriegn stock prices have done. I don't like their guess.

 

[FundSurfer]

....then you are expected to either win or accept the occassional loss from the FV.

I just expect it to be fair and understandable. So far it ain't.

 

[nnuut]

Sir, please don't even talk about playing the market, because you don't! Pluck pluck! sorry I'm pissed over fair value>BBNBC~:notrust:

 

[Wheels]

I just expect it to be fair and understandable. So far it ain't.

I know you feel hosed because you jumped out today, but it's doing exactly what it is supposed to be doing. The last thing that it is supposed to be is predictable.

The only way to play the I fund is for longer periods at a time. JMO

Dave
<><

 

[ocean]

$18.67! That stinks.

This does tell us that the FV is not just based on the dollar but rather a GUESS at what foriegn stock prices have done. I don't like their guess.

Agree. Playing I fund is just a guessing game. The odds is not much better than I play craps in casion.

Ocean

 

[frokker]

I know the TSp is set up for the long haul, but like the person said a few posts before, it should be fair. Now that they overshot the FV today, there'll be another probably tomorrow or Monday! That's 3 FV's in a matter of 4 to 5 days!


Show me how that's "20%" of the time...... 20% works out to like 4 times a month!!

 

[Gilligan]

5T is on vacation so I’ll fill in tonight:
The NIKKEI 300 is at (-0.71%) as post time stamped.
The AORD is at (-0.67%) as post time stamped.

The Dollar is also falling.

 

[airlift]

5T is on vacation so I’ll fill in tonight:
The NIKKEI 300 is at (-0.71%) as post time stamped.
The AORD is at (-0.67%) as post time stamped.

The Dollar is also falling.

Indeed, this is very good news for the I-Fund, even if timing FV is so difficult! However, the European indices started on a positive note and are now negative. Japan ended in the red. Is this a usual pattern for markets to be directly related and to follow the U.S. markets either way?

To those of you who have more experience with the I-Fund, how do we reconcile this. Aside from a violent, uncertain and significant flare-up in international affairs, which would most likely move the U.S. dollar to the upside (as the classic safe-haven currency), can we expect a trending lower dollar to compensate the I-Fund for the negative behavior of the international markets to some extent? Thanks in advance for your opinions!

 

[nnuut]

I know you feel hosed because you jumped out today, but it's doing exactly what it is supposed to be doing. The last thing that it is supposed to be is predictable.

The only way to play the I fund is for longer periods at a time. JMO

Dave
<><

Well, you can't win them all. It's all part of the game and is expected. Of course I don't like it, but the show must go on!

 

[Wheels]

I know the TSp is set up for the long haul, but like the person said a few posts before, it should be fair. Now that they overshot the FV today, there'll be another probably tomorrow or Monday! That's 3 FV's in a matter of 4 to 5 days!


Show me how that's "20%" of the time...... 20% works out to like 4 times a month!!

Well first you are counting the correction as an FV and it is not.

However even with that, I would concede that they seem to be applying fair valuation considerably more often than they used to. I have been watching this process for well over a year now. And up until a few months ago, they applied fair valuation far less than 20% of the time, maybe once or twice a month. Unfortunately I have no explanation for the increase. Hopefully it will die back down though.

Dave
<><

 

[Gilligan]

.......................can we expect a trending lower dollar to compensate the I-Fund for the negative behavior of the international markets to some extent? Thanks in advance for your opinions!

If the international markets are down 1% and the dollar is down 1% the I fund should break even. If the international markets are down 1% and the dollar is UP 1% then the I fund should lose 2%.

 

[airlift]

If the international markets are down 1% and the dollar is down 1% the I fund should break even. If the international markets are down 1% and the dollar is UP 1% then the I fund should lose 2%.

Gilligan, Thanks for the explanation. Things appear to be flaring up in the Middle East. As a cautious move, I took some off the table yesterday into the F-Fund, but left the bulk in the I-Fund. Even if it is only an opinion, and knowing that this is an individual judgment call, I would like other opinions as to whether to ride this out or not. Good Luck to all!

 

[Fivetears]

Hello there Little Buddy! It sure is HOT in Newkirk, OK. 108 yesterday. Will be back to burning the midnight oil this Sunday.

Dollar Falls Vs Most Major Currencies
The dollar fell further against most major currencies Friday, on signals this week that the U.S. Federal Reserve may hold off raising interest rates further. Coming on top of comments earlier in the week from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, they strengthened speculation that the Fed might keep rates unchanged at 5.25 percent at its Aug. 8 meeting. Higher rates support a currency by making some forms of investment more attractive, and the dollar has been buoyed by a long series of Fed increases.
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.asp?feed=AP&Date=20060721&ID=4160094

 

[roguewave]

If the international markets are down 1% and the dollar is down 1% the I fund should break even. If the international markets are down 1% and the dollar is UP 1% then the I fund should lose 2%.

I beleive it's a 48/52 split in terms of weighting. The equity side is more heavily weighted then the dollar/inverse side. So you need the dollar to fall a little more then 1% to over compensate for the weighting. Good luck.

 

[Fivetears]

Techs lead volatile week on European stock markets
The technology sector was one of the dominant forces behind a volatile performance for European equity markets this week. Mobile equipment group Ericsson and ASML, the Dutch chip equipment maker, led the charge on Wednesday that broke a four-day losing streak for European equities. But both were on the back foot yesterday after a double dose of bad news for the chip sector. Tensions in the Middle East added pressure throughout the last five trading sessions, but the FTSE Eurofirst 300 put in a resilient performance to end the week 1 per cent higher at 1,290.17.
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.asp?Feed=FT&Date=20060721&ID=5884816