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Playing the I fund
- Thread starter clester
- Start date
Griffin
Well-known member
All: I'm not sure if I'm missing something (I'm being dead honest, that's not sarcasm) or folks got soured on the FV situation, but it seems like a lot of folks are dumping their I-fund.
Todays movement in the dollar index has made the I-fund the place to be. The fund has been holding relatively steady for several weeks while the dollar has steadily climbed higher. I'd say today, things got there worst, which is always a good time to be in.
Japan is low in it's channel so that is actually good news. The Eurozone is definitely riding high in their channels, which I can see throwing a scare into the mix, but if the EZ is going to follow suit with the rest of the market, those channels were going to have to be broken at some point?
Honestly, I can't see why anyone would want to be any other place then the I-fund right now unless they were going into CP mode until the next pullback.
I recognize the distinct possibility that I may be dead in the *$$ wrong, agree or disagree?
Todays movement in the dollar index has made the I-fund the place to be. The fund has been holding relatively steady for several weeks while the dollar has steadily climbed higher. I'd say today, things got there worst, which is always a good time to be in.
Japan is low in it's channel so that is actually good news. The Eurozone is definitely riding high in their channels, which I can see throwing a scare into the mix, but if the EZ is going to follow suit with the rest of the market, those channels were going to have to be broken at some point?
Honestly, I can't see why anyone would want to be any other place then the I-fund right now unless they were going into CP mode until the next pullback.
I recognize the distinct possibility that I may be dead in the *$$ wrong, agree or disagree?
I jumped out of I into G yesterday, missing today's downturn. I intended it to be one day or so on the sidelines since the I fund was up several days in a row. I stayed out because of the long weekend and because of the headline about a possible nuke test by North Korea, which would send everything down. I personally don't see it happening, I think they are long on talk and short on know-how, but it's fear that drives the markets and I'm hoping fear pushes the price a little lower. I am nervous about posts on this site pointing out that meetings in Japan next week may result in significant support for the yen, so I am looking for a re-entry point early next week. As with all timing, I could miss and lose.
Griffin
Well-known member
You definitely saved yourself today's pain.
As far as North Korea goes, these guys have been threatening to build a bomb for as long as i can remember. I believe they have had the bomb for quite awhile but never really wanted to admit it. The possibility of having one is just as good as actually admiting you have one, and in someways is better politically (for them). The fear of a US invasion was always what kept these nuclear wannabe's in line. Now, with our forces significantly tasked, they all have the green light and added insentive of being able to poke Uncle Sam in the eye's. So they are going to, the predicament that nuclear weapons pose to any invading force is significant and they do provide an unparalled amount of security. However, I don't think MAD (mutually assured destruction) was lost on any of them. To use one offensively is suicide, and to allow your own nuclear weapon to be inserted into the hands of a rouge group like al-qaeda is an enormous gamble that no nuclear nation is willing to take. The possibility of it being captured and returned to sender with the timer ticking is too great. However, a group like Hezbollah may be a different story. Anyway, this is not a new story and North Korea testing a nuke was inevitable. Japan may get spooked a little, but this is not a new fear that I would see driving the market for any extended period. It would give them a reason to rally around increasing their defenses like the missle test flight did. Not that it matter's next week, but this could be the catalyst to an aggressive Japanesse defense industry.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Griffin,
I feel the same way you do about the C fund as you do about the I fund. One major difference is that I'm glad the C fund is ignored. I don't want it to run too fast because I want to accumulate many more shares - then I'll be prepared to play Palladin. Have pistols will shoot without questions.
I feel the same way you do about the C fund as you do about the I fund. One major difference is that I'm glad the C fund is ignored. I don't want it to run too fast because I want to accumulate many more shares - then I'll be prepared to play Palladin. Have pistols will shoot without questions.
FundSurfer
Well-known member
I agree. I'm predicting the dollar to fall back to 83 over the next year. I see the OSM continuing to advance. That bodes well for the I-fund.
That being said, I'll still take what the market gives. I think many who bailed were just trying to avoid a little pullback, looking to buy back in cheaper.
I missed the chance to jump (or jumped too early and doubled back at the wrong time). I still see the I-fund advancing. That being said, you can't ignore what is going on in the C-fund.
I've considered just going long for the rest of the year, but I can't help but want to continue to work the numbers.
Today the dollar rose to 119.015 USD/YEN. A currrency analist on CNBC this morning acknowleged that the expectations of a declining dollar was not on schedule, and that the Dollar would keep rising for some time yet. This morning the news of Korea and the reluctance of IRAN to reach agreements with the Eropean Union signify that great problems lay ahead. China and Russia, being important trading partners in the Asia and the East, can be counted upon to take liquified actions, as long as the resolutions are not too strong. A Chinese representative tlast weekend (don't remember his name or position) stated that too strong actions against Korea would not be acceptable, and that the U.S. should also consider changing its ways of doing things. How much more are they expecting us to change? Those countries, IMO, are simply vying for time perhaps without understanding that nuclear weapons in the hands of aggressive and irresponsible governments are not only a violation of United Nations resolutions; but also a threat to them also. One thing is certain, WHETHER WE LIKE IT OR NOT, tHE U.S. MUST TAKE THE LEADERSHIP AGAIN, REGARDLESS OF PUBLIC OPINION; PROVIDED THAT THE U.S. EXHAUSTS THE DIPLOMATIC OPTION. I HAVE NO DOUBT THAT THE U.S. IS ALREADY EXHAUSTING THE DIPLOMATIC ALTERNATIVE. What cannot be allowed to occur is for totalitarian governments to dictate controlling policies to the free world. One thing is to accept globalization in terms of reasonable exchange of ideas, commerce, and industry with equally minded peoples. The unacceptable thing would be to accept these international agreements at any cost, including giving up our National Heritage, our sacred liberties, freedoms, and way of life! I don't have the solution. but the fundamental principles of our Constitution, which has been venerated by most free nations worlwidwe, as an example of human ideals, and of our way of life, have to be preserved against all odds, even at the cost of life. We have many, many enemies! This is a fact. Let the diplomatic effort continue, but let us no lose faith in the idea that our government, (regardless of national political affiliation to party politics) has a first constitutional mandate since the birth of our Nation -- that is, to preserve our security, our life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness!. My best wishes to all of you!
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
Forex - Dollar a touch higher as North Korea announces nuclear test
LONDON (AFX) - The dollar was a touch higher, mainly against Asiancurrencies, after North Korea announced its first ever nuclear test, provoking awave of protests from around the world. Currency market reaction has been muted so far, what with public holidays inCanada, the US and Japan keeping reaction in check. There are concerns, however,that the situation may destabilise the region, leading to large fluctuations inexchange rates. After all, markets know full well that the test underlines North Korea'sreadiness to test the mettle of the international community, which warned justlast week that Pyongyang would pay a heavy price if it tested a nuclear weapon. "If the situation escalates, risk appetite could drop sharply, weighing onrisk assets and supporting the dollar," said Steve Pearson at HBOS. At the same time, however, the situation could stabilise and if so the yenmay well claw back some lost ground, he added. For now, markets appear to be treating the test like a "regional event," BNPParibas analysts said. In the wake of the test, the dollar hit a seven-month high against the yen,and appears to be heading higher. http://www.advfn.com/news_Forex-Dol...-Korea-announces-nuclear-test_0017150466.html
LONDON (AFX) - The dollar was a touch higher, mainly against Asiancurrencies, after North Korea announced its first ever nuclear test, provoking awave of protests from around the world. Currency market reaction has been muted so far, what with public holidays inCanada, the US and Japan keeping reaction in check. There are concerns, however,that the situation may destabilise the region, leading to large fluctuations inexchange rates. After all, markets know full well that the test underlines North Korea'sreadiness to test the mettle of the international community, which warned justlast week that Pyongyang would pay a heavy price if it tested a nuclear weapon. "If the situation escalates, risk appetite could drop sharply, weighing onrisk assets and supporting the dollar," said Steve Pearson at HBOS. At the same time, however, the situation could stabilise and if so the yenmay well claw back some lost ground, he added. For now, markets appear to be treating the test like a "regional event," BNPParibas analysts said. In the wake of the test, the dollar hit a seven-month high against the yen,and appears to be heading higher. http://www.advfn.com/news_Forex-Dol...-Korea-announces-nuclear-test_0017150466.html
"IF' the situation escalates?? With GW in the white house? Didn't he say something like "we will not tolerate a nuclear North Korea?" It starts today in the U.N., all eyes on China. If tough sanctions are put in place, will China observe them? And what will the North Koreans do if they get squeezed hard? This could all stabilize IF all the key players wanted it to. I think it plays well into republican election strategy. Bush and friends have never done so well as when the fear levels were highest. Lots of really tough talk coming. Markets aren't going to like it; the uncertainty will be worse than whatever really happens.
So far so good. The real test will come in the next few weeks. Time magazine, for example, seems determined to rub it in with stories announcing that the Koreans have "called Bush's bluff" and go on to say that there isn't much he can do about it. But as long as no one gets crazy, things won't get out of hand.
BTW, notice all the sories using the word IF with respect to the test? And stories about continuing efforts to confirm that it happened? Even a test down a deep hole filled with concrete leaves a small atmospheric signature, which hasn't been found. I don't doubt that they did it for real, but some people are pointing out that it was unusually small, 5 - 10 kilotons. If you dumped ten thousand tons of old Korean war vintage explosives down a hole, sealed it up, and set it off, the seismic signature would be the same.
Gilligan
Member
I am surprised at the dollars (NYBOT
X) upward movement today. It broke out on the topside of the current channel that it has been in for the last 3 months. It is now about at a 6 month high. The bottom of the current channel is about 85.25 and moving up, I don’t see it returning to 83 any time soon. Last year it climbed up to 92.1 in mid November before it started falling back down.Similar threads
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