Playing the I fund

[FundSurfer]

The I-fund is having to toe the anchor of a short term change in trend in the dollar. The downward trending dollar seems to have found its footing. Probably a delayed reaction to lower oil prices (lower trade imballance) and increased economic outlook by US consumers. I'm not sure how long the uptrend will last. (Increaseing value of dollar decreases value of the I-fund.)It has me thinking I may want to diversify into the S-fund. S-fund still has some catching up to do and seems to have bounced off the bottom of its short term channel.

 

[fabijo]

Where's the big bounce up we've all been anticipating? Looking at FundSurfer's charts would suggest we're looking at a drop soon.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

It has me thinking I may want to diversify into the S-fund. S-fund still has some catching up to do and seems to have bounced off the bottom of its short term channel.[/QUOTE]

I agree.

'rounding the first turn, C and S neck and neck....and ..it's....the S FUND!

 

[airlift]

I am considering your proposal, because the dollar continues to gain strength. I believe it was futurestrader, after you posted this, who agrees with you. I am planning to change my current position in the I fund and also will increase my allocation to today. Apparently, Mutual Funds and other institutions who haven't participated will be trying to close the quarter on the positive note. Therefore, they might "lift all boats" as they chase performance. They seem to be going into larger cap or big cap stocks, according to an analyst I follow at RM.com. Keep in mind that this seems to be mostly end-of-quareter window dressing, which may or may not last beyond Friday. --

The I-fund is having to toe the anchor of a short term change in trend in the dollar. The downward trending dollar seems to have found its footing. Probably a delayed reaction to lower oil prices (lower trade imballance) and increased economic outlook by US consumers. I'm not sure how long the uptrend will last. (Increaseing value of dollar decreases value of the I-fund.)It has me thinking I may want to diversify into the S-fund. S-fund still has some catching up to do and seems to have bounced off the bottom of its short term channel.

 

[Gilligan]

Ball park estimate: Local currency is +0.682%, the dollar is higher at +0.35% so the USD is about +0.332% for a gain of 7 cents to about $20.03; However if Barclays takes back the 15 cent FV today, the I-fund should end up around $19.88

 

[Fivetears]

Nikkei eases half a percent, hurt by losses in pharma sector and fears about outlook for US market.
SINGAPORE - Japan's Nikkei average closed half a percent lower on Tuesday as Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha and other shipping firms fell on higher oil prices, while drug stocks extended losses on concern about their profit outlook. Other Asian markets were mostly lower, with falls in South Korea and Hong Kong but a modest gain in Australia. The Nikkei lost 76.36 points or 0.49 percent to 15,557.45, extending its losses into a third session.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/26/new...ts_asia.reut/index.htm?postversion=2006092606

 

[frokker]

The I-fund is having to toe the anchor of a short term change in trend in the dollar. The downward trending dollar seems to have found its footing. Probably a delayed reaction to lower oil prices (lower trade imballance) and increased economic outlook by US consumers. I'm not sure how long the uptrend will last. (Increaseing value of dollar decreases value of the I-fund.)It has me thinking I may want to diversify into the S-fund. S-fund still has some catching up to do and seems to have bounced off the bottom of its short term channel.

I agree! Seems like a smart thing to do. Maybe not 50/50, but something in S and maybe C.

 

[Fivetears]

If Japan ever gets their act together... the I-Fund may start making good money. The FTSE, DAX, & CAC are doing pretty decent. The USD isn't going to hold for much longer.

US debt to foreigners seen hitting record highs
The U.S. is currently paying out more to foreign lenders than it is receiving for the first time in at least 90 years, which could weigh on the dollar...
http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/25/news/economy/foreign_debt/index.htm?postversion=2006092507

 

[Gilligan]

Japan has a new Finance Minister. Lets see how the Nikkei reacts tonight!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/newspid=email_en&refer=asia&sid=aISNvNLXKtUo

 

[vectorman]

With the FTSE and DAX doing well today, what are the chances we'll break even tonight?

 

[mlk_man]

I have the I fund being up a penny unless they take the .15 cents back tonight. Then it would be -.14. I suspect they'll wait till tomorrow though.

 

[Gilligan]

I have the I fund being up a penny unless they take the .15 cents back tonight. Then it would be -.14. I suspect they'll wait till tomorrow though.

Mlk,
You and Tech are both calling for +.01 and I am looking at +.07 before any FV. I'm goning to go back and recheck my numbers.

 

[fabijo]

Japan has a new Finance Minister. Lets see how the Nikkei reacts tonight!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/newspid=email_en&refer=asia&sid=aISNvNLXKtUo

I noticed last night that just after Japan announced Abe as new Prime Minister, the Nikkei went on a strong downward slope. I wonder if the guy he picked to be Finance Minister will help the markets. Only time will tell...

 

[Birchtree]

Abe stated last week that he intended to carry on with the existing financial policies. This is just a healthy correction - buy more via DCA.

 

[fabijo]

Looks like the I-Fund will be at 19.90 tonight.
I'm guessing that they'll take back the FV.

 

[ebbnflow]

Ball park estimate: Local currency is +0.682%, the dollar is higher at +0.35% so the USD is about +0.332% for a gain of 7 cents to about $20.03; However if Barclays takes back the 15 cent FV today, the I-fund should end up around $19.88

Gilligan's got it right! MSCI EAFE = +.327% or +.07 cents without an FV. There might be a positive FV today seeing how the market kept moving upwards with the dollar remaining relatively the same all afternoon. Not sure though. The Barclay people might decide to wait for tomorrow to take the FV away. I hope.

 

[Gilligan]

Ball park estimate: Local currency is +0.682%, the dollar is higher at +0.35% so the USD is about +0.332% for a gain of 7 cents to about $20.03; However if Barclays takes back the 15 cent FV today, the I-fund should end up around $19.88

MSCI is showing the Local currency at +0.707%, the dollar at +0.38% and the USD price at +0.327% for a gain of 6 or 7 cents which should take the I-fund to $20.02 / 20.03, unless Barclays corrects the 15 cent FV then we should see about $19.87 / 19.88; the US markets are rallying again today so Barclays may decide to let the FV ride till tomorrow. According to their rules, they should correct the FV within 2 business days.

 

[fabijo]

I wonder if I did something wrong in my spreadsheet. You're calculating 19.87 / 19.88 for the corrected price. Now I gotta check my numbers! I keep coming up with 19.90. I know it's only a couple of cents, but hey, it's a couple of cents.

 

[Gilligan]

$20.00 ??????????????????????????????
I listened to the recording 3 times!

 

[Gilligan]

G ---
F -1
C +11
S +10
I +4