If you stayed in the I for tomorrow you will be fine. You'll get some gains today via an FV or you should get some gains tomorrow on the back of today's U.S. gains.
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Playing the I fund
- Thread starter clester
- Start date
If you stayed in the I for tomorrow you will be fine. You'll get some gains today via an FV or you should get some gains tomorrow on the back of today's U.S. gains.
Gilligan
Member
The -0.595% is not counting a FV. So if there is not a FV today the I fund should close at $19.81 ( a loss of 10 cents). But if we do get a +FV it will be added to the $19.81 price. Eg: $19.81 plus a 10 cent FV would be $19.91
Gilligan, --
For my understanding, if this calculation occurs, and FV is added to $19.81 (a loss of 10 cents), this would leave the closing price today unchanged at $19.91. Where would the I fund gains come from? Waiting until tomorrow? --
For my understanding, if this calculation occurs, and FV is added to $19.81 (a loss of 10 cents), this would leave the closing price today unchanged at $19.91. Where would the I fund gains come from? Waiting until tomorrow? --
FundSurfer
Well-known member
I-fund gains come from either changes in the dollar (which we have a good number for) or from estimated changes in overseas stock prices (which is a wild guess - OK they can look at some after hours trading and futures data - scant).
mailmanusa
Member
The yahoo chart at the bottom of this page for I fund says +.42. You all are talking a loss + FV added? What am I missing? im confused.
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
Woohoo (+.05 cents gain for the I-fund), I expected an FV, but not that much, thanks Gilligan! Now let's hope the I-fund takes off tomorrow so they won't correct the FV until Wednesday when I'm out of it. :cheesy: Like Spaf said before, playing with the I-fund is a double-edged sword. We have to rely on the dollar going down and the overseas market going up for us to hit the jackpot. 
The_Technician
Active member
That is one heck of an FV.....I had the thing at or around -.5% at cutoff, but when Gilligan posted a 3 cent loss, I didn't know what to think...I wonder Gilligan, why did your everyday credible calculation come at 3 cent loss....????
I'll take the FV today...and hope for the better tomorrow.....
I'll take the FV today...and hope for the better tomorrow.....
TiCKed
Member
Seems this gets asked every so often, and everyone just ignores the question!
So, I'll attempt an answer, and let someone correct me where I'm wrong.
The chart at the bottom of the TSPTalk chart is actually a ETF (Exchange Traded Fund), that holds the same type of investments as the I-Fund. However, since it's traded during the U.S. trading day, it will vary from where the actual international stocks closed, based on investor guessing for the next day...week....etc.
Therefore, taking that Yahoo chart as an indication of where the I-Fund will actually end up is iffy at best. (It might be an indicator of FV bias...but that's only a guess on my part. The Usual Suspects here would have a better feel for that).
Show me where I'm wrong, but at least it's an answer. :cheesy:
Investors watch for signs of US slowdown going global
Investors are trying to assess the extent to which the slowdown in the US economy will lead to a broader global downturn. This week's data releases could provide further evidence as to why concerns for the outlook for 2007 are rising. The continuing US property market slowdown will be reflected in Monday's existing home sales data, expected to fall from 6.33m in July to 6.20m in August. New homes sales for August on Wednesday are expected to decline from 1.07m in July to 1.05m.
However, the slowdown in the housing market has had less of an impact on US consumer confidence than two other factors: the summer's rise in gasoline prices, offset by ongoing employment gains. September's consumer confidence index, due on Tuesday, is expected to rebound from 99.6 in August to 102.0, helped by the recent retreat in gasoline prices.
US employment is continuing to increase and this is feeding through to robust income growth for consumers. US nominal personal income growth for August, due on Friday, is expected to rise from 7.1 per cent in July to 9.3 per cent, while year-on-year growth in spending is forecast to strengthen from 5.9 per cent to 6.2 per cent.
The fall in oil prices should ease pressure on headline measures of inflation. German harmonised inflation for September, due on Monday, is expected to fall from 1.8 per cent in August to 1.5 per cent.
The initial estimate for headline eurozone inflation for September, due on Friday, is expected to fall from 2.3 per cent in August to 1.9 per cent. However, the European Central Bank is still concerned about the pace of credit expansion, with M3 growth for August, due on Wednesday, expected to slow from 7.8 per cent in July to 7.5 per cent. This is still well above the level that the ECB would consider consistent with price stability.
Unemployment in France in August, due on Friday, is expected to edge down from 8.9 per cent in July to 8.8 per cent, a seventh successive monthly decline. This is part of of a gradual improvement in eurozone labour market conditions and should be reflected in a rise in consumer confidence data released on the same day.
A key question for global investors is whether weaker US consumer spending will be offset by stronger spending in the eurozone. However, John Butler of HSBC says there is little sign that hopes that the eurozone consumer will surprise all by throwing caution to the wind and indulging in a spending spree will become reality, especially in an environment where real wages are falling. Mr Butler warns that the eurozone could be heading into a global slowdown with monetary policy still tightening.
In the UK, the growth in mortgage borrowing has risen in recent months, while consumer credit growth is slowing. This pattern is expected to continue in August's data, released on Friday. Potential homebuyers should be aware that the UK also faces the challenge of slower economic growth and tighter monetary policy next year.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20060924...3IdCzn6WhOyBhIF;_ylu=X3oDMTA0cDJlYmhvBHNlYwM-
Investors are trying to assess the extent to which the slowdown in the US economy will lead to a broader global downturn. This week's data releases could provide further evidence as to why concerns for the outlook for 2007 are rising. The continuing US property market slowdown will be reflected in Monday's existing home sales data, expected to fall from 6.33m in July to 6.20m in August. New homes sales for August on Wednesday are expected to decline from 1.07m in July to 1.05m.
However, the slowdown in the housing market has had less of an impact on US consumer confidence than two other factors: the summer's rise in gasoline prices, offset by ongoing employment gains. September's consumer confidence index, due on Tuesday, is expected to rebound from 99.6 in August to 102.0, helped by the recent retreat in gasoline prices.
US employment is continuing to increase and this is feeding through to robust income growth for consumers. US nominal personal income growth for August, due on Friday, is expected to rise from 7.1 per cent in July to 9.3 per cent, while year-on-year growth in spending is forecast to strengthen from 5.9 per cent to 6.2 per cent.
The fall in oil prices should ease pressure on headline measures of inflation. German harmonised inflation for September, due on Monday, is expected to fall from 1.8 per cent in August to 1.5 per cent.
The initial estimate for headline eurozone inflation for September, due on Friday, is expected to fall from 2.3 per cent in August to 1.9 per cent. However, the European Central Bank is still concerned about the pace of credit expansion, with M3 growth for August, due on Wednesday, expected to slow from 7.8 per cent in July to 7.5 per cent. This is still well above the level that the ECB would consider consistent with price stability.
Unemployment in France in August, due on Friday, is expected to edge down from 8.9 per cent in July to 8.8 per cent, a seventh successive monthly decline. This is part of of a gradual improvement in eurozone labour market conditions and should be reflected in a rise in consumer confidence data released on the same day.
A key question for global investors is whether weaker US consumer spending will be offset by stronger spending in the eurozone. However, John Butler of HSBC says there is little sign that hopes that the eurozone consumer will surprise all by throwing caution to the wind and indulging in a spending spree will become reality, especially in an environment where real wages are falling. Mr Butler warns that the eurozone could be heading into a global slowdown with monetary policy still tightening.
In the UK, the growth in mortgage borrowing has risen in recent months, while consumer credit growth is slowing. This pattern is expected to continue in August's data, released on Friday. Potential homebuyers should be aware that the UK also faces the challenge of slower economic growth and tighter monetary policy next year.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20060924...3IdCzn6WhOyBhIF;_ylu=X3oDMTA0cDJlYmhvBHNlYwM-
Gilligan
Member
The dollar gained more strength than I factored in.
Last edited:
Dollar gets modest lift from housing data
NEW YORK - The dollar firmed against the other major currencies on news of existing home sales in the United States that was not as bad as the market had feared. The euro eased to 1.2747 dollars at 2100 GMT against 1.2783 late Friday in New York. The dollar was meanwhile trading at 116.53 yen, from 116.51 on Friday. Figures released by the National Association of Realtors showed that US existing home sales fell 0.5 percent to 6.3 million units in August from the previous month. Although this is the lowest level since January 2004 and a further sign of cooling in housing, analysts had expected a bigger drop to 6.2 million units.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/2006092...7LqxQcB;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl
NEW YORK - The dollar firmed against the other major currencies on news of existing home sales in the United States that was not as bad as the market had feared. The euro eased to 1.2747 dollars at 2100 GMT against 1.2783 late Friday in New York. The dollar was meanwhile trading at 116.53 yen, from 116.51 on Friday. Figures released by the National Association of Realtors showed that US existing home sales fell 0.5 percent to 6.3 million units in August from the previous month. Although this is the lowest level since January 2004 and a further sign of cooling in housing, analysts had expected a bigger drop to 6.2 million units.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/2006092...7LqxQcB;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl
Is the U.S. dollar headed for a fall?
As the U.S. keeps adding billions to its trade deficit, and the government churns out billions more in Treasury debt, several readers are getting a little nervous about the value of the dollar. Just how come it's not falling?
There are certainly plenty of economists out there who will tell you that the dollar is headed for a fall. If the rest of the world stops buying our IOUs, the Treasury Department would have to keep raising interest rates until it could find buyers. That could, in theory, throw the U.S. economy into tailspin. But for all its vulnerability, the U.S. dollar is still the most powerful currency in the world. And one big reason is that the U.S. economy is still the largest and most resilient in the world.
U.S. gross domestic product — which is basically the value of all goods and services produced here — came to about $12.4 trillion in 2005, according to the CIA Factbook. (To arrive at that GDP number, you add up all spending by consumers, investors and government agencies — then add the value of exports and subtract the value of imports.) That represents about a fifth of the total worldwide. So one out of every five dollars in global economic value is created in the United States.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14959939/
As the U.S. keeps adding billions to its trade deficit, and the government churns out billions more in Treasury debt, several readers are getting a little nervous about the value of the dollar. Just how come it's not falling?
There are certainly plenty of economists out there who will tell you that the dollar is headed for a fall. If the rest of the world stops buying our IOUs, the Treasury Department would have to keep raising interest rates until it could find buyers. That could, in theory, throw the U.S. economy into tailspin. But for all its vulnerability, the U.S. dollar is still the most powerful currency in the world. And one big reason is that the U.S. economy is still the largest and most resilient in the world.
U.S. gross domestic product — which is basically the value of all goods and services produced here — came to about $12.4 trillion in 2005, according to the CIA Factbook. (To arrive at that GDP number, you add up all spending by consumers, investors and government agencies — then add the value of exports and subtract the value of imports.) That represents about a fifth of the total worldwide. So one out of every five dollars in global economic value is created in the United States.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14959939/
Birchtree
Well-known member
Here comes the candy man. I was just looking at the Nikkei average graph and it sure looks like an eventual test of the 15,000 level. This is actually positive on an intermediate basis. This level will provide good support with bottoms above bottoms at 14045.45 and 14437.20 for a continued move up.
FundSurfer
Well-known member
Ummm... Yeah. What he said!
Seems this gets asked every so often, and everyone just ignores the question!
So, I'll attempt an answer, and let someone correct me where I'm wrong.
The chart at the bottom of the TSPTalk chart is actually a ETF (Exchange Traded Fund), that holds the same type of investments as the I-Fund. However, since it's traded during the U.S. trading day, it will vary from where the actual international stocks closed, based on investor guessing for the next day...week....etc.
Therefore, taking that Yahoo chart as an indication of where the I-Fund will actually end up is iffy at best. (It might be an indicator of FV bias...but that's only a guess on my part. The Usual Suspects here would have a better feel for that).
Show me where I'm wrong, but at least it's an answer. :cheesy:
While it's not quite as simple as that, that's a great nutshell answer.
FundSurfer
Well-known member
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