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Playing the I fund
- Thread starter clester
- Start date
FUTURESTRADER
Active member
Asia flat in early trading
Japan closes for holiday. Australia down slightly, South Korea flat.
Japan closes for holiday. Australia down slightly, South Korea flat.
Show-me
Well-known member
You would think it would be the opposite. Maybe the currency traders know something we don't. I have seen the USD rise before a rate increase many times and then go flat or fall after the hike because trader anticipated the strengthening to much. This is new territory for them. Before they were in "rate hike mode" hoping for a pause. Now the are wondering what is going to happen beings the Fed has paused and is
CNBC sez USD has reached a 5 month hit against the YEN. Analyst sez USD will weaken if rates lowered and will strengthen if housing market recovers. Also sez USD will react to the TICKs numbers. Don't know what that is.
Show-me --
I appreciate your input. Try to get the opinions of the other good analysts that write in this thread in order to put the puzzle together. A little earlier, the USD was rising after the G-7 meeting. Apparently, the G-7 were soft on China, etc. Just now, Bloomberg TV, interviewed Ms. Lara Rhame (currency analyst with Credit Suisse). She said that they are dollar (USD) bullish, and that the USD will remain at the top of the carry trade for now. USD/YEN is trading now around 118.265; and EURO/USD is 1.2661. But Eurozone is rallying. --
I appreciate your input. Try to get the opinions of the other good analysts that write in this thread in order to put the puzzle together. A little earlier, the USD was rising after the G-7 meeting. Apparently, the G-7 were soft on China, etc. Just now, Bloomberg TV, interviewed Ms. Lara Rhame (currency analyst with Credit Suisse). She said that they are dollar (USD) bullish, and that the USD will remain at the top of the carry trade for now. USD/YEN is trading now around 118.265; and EURO/USD is 1.2661. But Eurozone is rallying. --
The_Technician
Active member
I got the I fund at +2 cents so far this morning (I fund Futures 
)....dollar still strengthening though...overseas markets stronger today...
)....dollar still strengthening though...overseas markets stronger today...
Last edited:
Thanks Tech --
I just heard a trader on Bloomberg TV, that traders are waiting for the effect of Secretary Paulson to China; but that by September 24, they are expecting some sort of favorable news (I don't know what) that would start the dollar declining. Unless there are more news nearby coming out, I believe a wait until the 24th is a risky long shot for one to remain static in the I-fund. Reason: many market analysts are convinced that the Stock Market is overbought, and that a correction of some sort is due. So, if there are no other reasons to support a declining dollar, caution should be exercised!
I just heard a trader on Bloomberg TV, that traders are waiting for the effect of Secretary Paulson to China; but that by September 24, they are expecting some sort of favorable news (I don't know what) that would start the dollar declining. Unless there are more news nearby coming out, I believe a wait until the 24th is a risky long shot for one to remain static in the I-fund. Reason: many market analysts are convinced that the Stock Market is overbought, and that a correction of some sort is due. So, if there are no other reasons to support a declining dollar, caution should be exercised!
The_Technician
Active member
I got the I fund at +2 cents so far this morning (I fund Futures
Overseas markets getting weaker....now the I fund future looks like -2 cents .....dollar holding....
Oldcoin
Member
Top Symbols
Symbol Last Chg %Chg
CAC 5,137.02 -7.86 -0.15%
TSE 300 11,737.69 81.65 0.69%
S&P 500 1,320.74 0.87 0.07%
Hang Seng 17,387.21 149.56 0.85%
DAX 5,908.01 -29.86 -0.51%
Nikkei 225 15,866.93 0.00 0.00%
FTSE 100 5,883.90 6.90 0.12%
IBEX 35 12,275.60 -2.80 -0.02%
Kinda a mixed bag.
Symbol Last Chg %Chg
CAC 5,137.02 -7.86 -0.15%
TSE 300 11,737.69 81.65 0.69%
S&P 500 1,320.74 0.87 0.07%
Hang Seng 17,387.21 149.56 0.85%
DAX 5,908.01 -29.86 -0.51%
Nikkei 225 15,866.93 0.00 0.00%
FTSE 100 5,883.90 6.90 0.12%
IBEX 35 12,275.60 -2.80 -0.02%
Kinda a mixed bag.
Rato sees need to address inflation, US slowdown
SINGAPORE - International Monetary Fund chief Rodrigo Rato called on policy makers on Sunday to be ready for a slowdown in the United States, despite the prospect of strong growth in the world economy, and to tackle rising price pressures. Opening a meeting of the IMF's policy-setting International Monetary and Financial Committee in Singapore, Rato said interest rates may have to rise in the United States, euro zone and Japan. He said policy makers needed to "act with foresight to head off potential strains" from rising inflationary pressures in the rich world, slower U.S. growth, high oil prices and increased national protectionism. To help keep inflation firmly in check, the U.S. Federal Reserve may have to raise rates further, Rato said. The Fed halted a two-year string of interest rate rises on Aug. 8. That pause gave the Fed an opportunity to stand back, judge the impact of its policy tightening and see how a cooling housing market would eventually play out, he added.
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/artic...-09-17_04-42-10_SP50646&type=comktNews&rpc=44
SINGAPORE - International Monetary Fund chief Rodrigo Rato called on policy makers on Sunday to be ready for a slowdown in the United States, despite the prospect of strong growth in the world economy, and to tackle rising price pressures. Opening a meeting of the IMF's policy-setting International Monetary and Financial Committee in Singapore, Rato said interest rates may have to rise in the United States, euro zone and Japan. He said policy makers needed to "act with foresight to head off potential strains" from rising inflationary pressures in the rich world, slower U.S. growth, high oil prices and increased national protectionism. To help keep inflation firmly in check, the U.S. Federal Reserve may have to raise rates further, Rato said. The Fed halted a two-year string of interest rate rises on Aug. 8. That pause gave the Fed an opportunity to stand back, judge the impact of its policy tightening and see how a cooling housing market would eventually play out, he added.
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/artic...-09-17_04-42-10_SP50646&type=comktNews&rpc=44
Fivetears, --
Do you think that this news offsets our previous belief that the FED will most likely stay put the day after tomorrow in order to give the 17 previous rate hikes enough time to work through the economy? In any event, the economic numbers to be announced tomorrow and Wednesday should be of critical importance if the FED continues in its commitment to be data-dependent. The FED could stay on hold now and do another hike the next time around. However, I am concerned that Secretary Paulson is quoted as speaking to a stronger dollar. His statements could be construed by the FED as a need for further rate hikes?
--
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Do you think that this news offsets our previous belief that the FED will most likely stay put the day after tomorrow in order to give the 17 previous rate hikes enough time to work through the economy? In any event, the economic numbers to be announced tomorrow and Wednesday should be of critical importance if the FED continues in its commitment to be data-dependent. The FED could stay on hold now and do another hike the next time around. However, I am concerned that Secretary Paulson is quoted as speaking to a stronger dollar. His statements could be construed by the FED as a need for further rate hikes?
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--
sugarandspice
Well-known member
+.182% = .03 maybe .04 pennies
I honestly don't think our Fed considers the opinion from Chief Rato; he's entitled to it. What I do feel is important (when vesting in the I Fund) is what the rest of the worlds talking heads think about the direction of our economy. With this in mind... we have IMF Chief Rato stating (in conference) to be ready for a slowdown in the United States, despite the prospect of strong growth in the world economy... Important? That's what were all here for. You be the judge. 
sugarandspice
Well-known member
G+.01
F-----
C+.02
S+.01
I+.04
F-----
C+.02
S+.01
I+.04
The_Technician
Active member
Dollar dropping value tonight.....down .05 .....could be worth another penny tomorrow...and the Japs are up over 1%.....yeaaaaayaaaa......:nuts:
FundSurfer
Well-known member
Thinking of moving into the I-fund tommorrow for the following reasons:
1: I-fund remains at the bottom of its short term channel/trough.
2: The I-fund today remained solid.
3: The C&S did not reverse on a day when they clearly should given quad-witching and the fact they were at top of trading range.
4: The dollar reversed back down following a sharp morning increase.
5: I think the Fed will continue its pause for now and thus dollar may drop following their meeting.
1: I-fund remains at the bottom of its short term channel/trough.
2: The I-fund today remained solid.
3: The C&S did not reverse on a day when they clearly should given quad-witching and the fact they were at top of trading range.
4: The dollar reversed back down following a sharp morning increase.
5: I think the Fed will continue its pause for now and thus dollar may drop following their meeting.
Departing Japanese Leader Shook Up Politics as Usual
TOKYO — Junichiro Koizumi swept to power in 2001 promising to “destroy” his ruling Liberal Democratic Party and, by extension, Japan’s encrusted postwar order. To a remarkable extent, he succeeded — though hardly as radically as he had hoped. When Mr. Koizumi, 64, retires on Sept. 26, he will leave a Japan with new bearings: a smaller central government, greater faith in free markets and a new assertiveness in world affairs. He pressed for painful economic reforms despite opposition from inside his own party. These changes included deregulating industries, cleaning up the banking industry’s bad loans and slashing the enormous and frequently wasteful public spending that had won his party votes for decades. But the revival of Japan’s economy, many experts say, owes as much, if not more, to private companies’ own restructurings and the booming trade with China’s explosive economy. Whatever his share of the credit, Mr. Koizumi articulated more than anybody else the need for Japan to change.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/19/world/asia/19koizumi.html?_r=1&ref=world&oref=slogin
TOKYO — Junichiro Koizumi swept to power in 2001 promising to “destroy” his ruling Liberal Democratic Party and, by extension, Japan’s encrusted postwar order. To a remarkable extent, he succeeded — though hardly as radically as he had hoped. When Mr. Koizumi, 64, retires on Sept. 26, he will leave a Japan with new bearings: a smaller central government, greater faith in free markets and a new assertiveness in world affairs. He pressed for painful economic reforms despite opposition from inside his own party. These changes included deregulating industries, cleaning up the banking industry’s bad loans and slashing the enormous and frequently wasteful public spending that had won his party votes for decades. But the revival of Japan’s economy, many experts say, owes as much, if not more, to private companies’ own restructurings and the booming trade with China’s explosive economy. Whatever his share of the credit, Mr. Koizumi articulated more than anybody else the need for Japan to change.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/19/world/asia/19koizumi.html?_r=1&ref=world&oref=slogin
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