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Playing the I fund
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The_Technician
Active member
I took a look at the USD this morning....I expect the dollar to weaken again thru lunch like it did yesterday....thus helping the I fund.....whatever happens to the EuroZone is still up in the air.....but I feel like we won't lose much if the Zone fails us today.....I'm thinking its good to stay in over the weekend.....the dollar has a ways to go before it weakens enough....
FundSurfer
Well-known member
Show-me said:
OSM (Overseas Market) Tanks = wham
USD (U.S. Dollar) Tanks = wham
That's a Double Whammy!
Today the market seems to like economic numbers so far. The CPI numbers came out at 8:30 showing inflation is contained. We still have to see what comes out this morning with regard to capacity utilization and industrial production. Since the FEd has indicated that their decision to change rates will be data-dependent this might keep them from hiking rates again. I think the FED meeting is set for next Tuesday? Many times the stock market can remain overbought for longer than anyone expects, before going into a correction. How do you people see the direction of the markets now? What is the risk/reward equation? It seems that we have discussed the matter of another FED pause as being favorable to a declining dollar. Any other views?
The_Technician
Active member
Take this in as a reference, considering the dollar and the overseas markets the I fund was losing 9 cents, now it up to losing only 5 cents, reason being, the Eurozone is changing to the positive and the dollar is gaining less....both in the I fund favor....
I hope and sort of expect this trend to keep going for the next several hours...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602081&sid=aNq1w7OszQ_E&refer=benchmark_currency_rates
Apparently not everyone liked the CPI numbers because this article says "Dollar Remains Higher Versus Euro After Release of August CPI". Since Euro is more important than the YEN with respect to the effect on the I-fund, this news should be considered.
Apparently not everyone liked the CPI numbers because this article says "Dollar Remains Higher Versus Euro After Release of August CPI". Since Euro is more important than the YEN with respect to the effect on the I-fund, this news should be considered.
Griffin
Well-known member
Has anone thought that one day if the trend continues the FED will announce that they are reducing the rate by 1/4 point? That will cause a reaction from the market for sure. When, What effect, What?:nuts: Next week?
Does it really matter?
Action: Fed up
Message: the economy is moving along crisply and requires a little tweaking to bring in that soft landing.
Reaction: good for stocks
Action: Fed even
Message: the economy is moving along crisply
Reaction: good for stocks
Action: Fed down
Message: the economy needs some bolstering and requires a little tweaking because we have had a soft landing
Reaction: good for stocks
Soft Landing = Good for Stocks
The only thing to fear (is fear itself? nah, that's good too
)....is troubled waters ahead.....other then the inverted yield curve and goofy election mudslinging...what's out there?A reminder to all, during the January - May run-up - the buy and hold crew outperformed the timers.
The market needs it's breathers and some very savvy play could be beneficial but - is the risk worth it?
The_Technician
Active member
The dollar strengthening is killing the I this morning.....wasn't expecting such good CPI numbers myself....hard to imaging they turned around so quickly....good thing though....the EZ is staying up....I fund is down 6 cents still.....
Is the dollar strengthening likely to be a one-day knee-jerk reaction? If U.S stocks are shining today will Europe and Asia follow on Monday? With lots of evidence presented in the last few days that the Monday following witch day is bad of U.S. stock, the I fund seems obvious for Monday. That's what scares me most, it's obviously going to be the winning play, so it might be a trap. Who else likes I for Monday?
The_Technician
Active member
The I has been down as much as 11 cents, right now at -8 cents....C and S are up 9, 8 cents as of this moment...
At 5:00am this morning, Bloomberg TV discussed a falling US economy for the remainder of the year, going into the next, with a strong possibility for recession in 2008.
I just want to meet the group of Bloomberg astrophysicist's who crunch this stuff up for public financial consumption. :blink:
Weathermen.
I just want to meet the group of Bloomberg astrophysicist's who crunch this stuff up for public financial consumption. :blink:
Weathermen.
sugarandspice
Well-known member
I'm not buying into that spike in the dollar against the Euro. I think it will come back down significantly today.
Me either. 
I am going in 100% I today, gauging Monday to see if Expectations of a FED pause keep the rally going. Incidentally, IMF representatives meeting in Singapore were quoted by the press as being worried that the U.S. housing burst, which affects the U.S. consumer, might have a significant negative ripple effect on world economies. Therefore, this could be another reason for the FED to pause, avoiding a recessionary spiral, and to wait and see if the previous 16 FED hikes have had the expected result in controlling inflation. Let's keep the ear to the ground for a heads up!
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