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Market Talk
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
Ragin Cajun
Member
imported post
I think what Tekno means by"selling into a rally" is ride the rally, but get off sooner rather than later. IOW, when most people think we'll rally the rest of the week, be out before the end of the week.
I'm a bit nervous this week too. My gut tells me the mood will be good through inauguration day. TheStreet will like what Bush says Thursday, but Friday, some of the euphoria will wear off. I think by the end of January, we'll be close to where we are now or lower.
Been a bit disappointed with the I fund, and I have no idea on whether to keep current 50I 30S 20C allocation. Any suggestions?
If Wednesday morning is way up, I might pullout and just wait through the weekend.
Rajun Cajun
I think what Tekno means by"selling into a rally" is ride the rally, but get off sooner rather than later. IOW, when most people think we'll rally the rest of the week, be out before the end of the week.
I'm a bit nervous this week too. My gut tells me the mood will be good through inauguration day. TheStreet will like what Bush says Thursday, but Friday, some of the euphoria will wear off. I think by the end of January, we'll be close to where we are now or lower.
Been a bit disappointed with the I fund, and I have no idea on whether to keep current 50I 30S 20C allocation. Any suggestions?
If Wednesday morning is way up, I might pullout and just wait through the weekend.
Rajun Cajun
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
Hey Timer! I think Tekno means to buy into the upturn. But, will have to let him explain the "sell" wording?
The upturn in the past few day is good! We seem to be going forward, and not in reverse. However, the correction was very steep. And in my opinion, untill the previous higher high is passed we can't say the bull market is reestablished. Since the I fund is still down I'll do a transfer this PM to 30G, 30C, and 40S, and see what the AM market shows for tomorrow (a stay or cancel).
Whether this party is a real dinner or just a box of C-rations, ??
Rgds, [:-x] :? Spaf
Hey Timer! I think Tekno means to buy into the upturn. But, will have to let him explain the "sell" wording?
The upturn in the past few day is good! We seem to be going forward, and not in reverse. However, the correction was very steep. And in my opinion, untill the previous higher high is passed we can't say the bull market is reestablished. Since the I fund is still down I'll do a transfer this PM to 30G, 30C, and 40S, and see what the AM market shows for tomorrow (a stay or cancel).
Whether this party is a real dinner or just a box of C-rations, ??
Rgds, [:-x] :? Spaf
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
I agree that this is a rally that you will be selling into..sooner or later. I said last week that I felt we were bound to rally this week and see a downturn again next week (probably around the middle to end of next week). Well this is the rally. Hallelujah. However, the dollar is taking its time in rising so I haven't switched out of the I fund yet. Once it crosses 83.6, I'll switch to S for a week or so..then late next week start moving more into G.
However, if I were allowed only one allocation for this year...an allocation that I'd have to stay with till Dec 31...I think, at this point,I'd go 50%G 50% I.
I agree that this is a rally that you will be selling into..sooner or later. I said last week that I felt we were bound to rally this week and see a downturn again next week (probably around the middle to end of next week). Well this is the rally. Hallelujah. However, the dollar is taking its time in rising so I haven't switched out of the I fund yet. Once it crosses 83.6, I'll switch to S for a week or so..then late next week start moving more into G.
However, if I were allowed only one allocation for this year...an allocation that I'd have to stay with till Dec 31...I think, at this point,I'd go 50%G 50% I.
teknobucks
Active member
imported post
Timer wrote:
sell the resistance...buy the support.
****do the opposite of what kudlow andkramer say on the talking heads show (CNBC) ....LOL
Timer wrote:
reduce your exposer to stocks as they rise in price....move into g or f.
sell the resistance...buy the support.
****do the opposite of what kudlow andkramer say on the talking heads show (CNBC) ....LOL
teknobucks
Active member
imported post
shifting moreinto the I fund with this stronger dollar (rflmao) may be a sweet move now.
jmho
shifting moreinto the I fund with this stronger dollar (rflmao) may be a sweet move now.
jmho
teknobucks
Active member
imported post
delima for Fed :shock:
Fed has decided to raise rates on Feb and March meetings despite the factit may hurt economic recovery down the road. So theboyz use the inflation threat as a back up reason. Now both PPI and CPI show no sign of inflation?
Now if Fed isto raise rate to 2.75% at Feb/March meeting, do you think the 10 year bond yeild can stay at 4.2%? HELL NO....by no means.
March is going to be a very interesting month. It happened to be the low month of 1935. Coincidence?
This damn market is runningon the script ofthe 1929 dj....history repeats itself!!!
Tekno
plan to spend more time in the G and or F this year....
long in march=major risk!!!!!:s
delima for Fed :shock:
Fed has decided to raise rates on Feb and March meetings despite the factit may hurt economic recovery down the road. So theboyz use the inflation threat as a back up reason. Now both PPI and CPI show no sign of inflation?
Now if Fed isto raise rate to 2.75% at Feb/March meeting, do you think the 10 year bond yeild can stay at 4.2%? HELL NO....by no means.
March is going to be a very interesting month. It happened to be the low month of 1935. Coincidence?
This damn market is runningon the script ofthe 1929 dj....history repeats itself!!!
Tekno
plan to spend more time in the G and or F this year....
long in march=major risk!!!!!:s
teknobucks
Active member
imported post
That Smell
...The past 4 years we've seen NET JOB LOSS folks...
...The (falsely deflated) extremely low interest rates have provided the 'jobless' recovery...
...and in the Process built up HUGE DEBT levels and exacerbated the Trade Imbalance...
We are STILL 'rewarding' Major companies for LEAVING the USA...the music is still playing...
http://www.its.caltech.edu/~yel/Fire.html
As long as they continue to 'SCARE' the public...people will continue to buy Bonds vs. Stocks and keep downward pressure on Mortgage rates...
Fed rates are upping to combat inflation...but the 10yr 'yield' drives the mortgage rates.
They won't allow the 'golden goose' -a.k.a. residential real estate, to be COOKED...it may simmer 'somewhat' with 25% of mortgages on Vari-rate, and those get pinched!
******theQuestion is...For HOW LONG???
I say 2007....JMHO though.
That Smell
...The past 4 years we've seen NET JOB LOSS folks...
...The (falsely deflated) extremely low interest rates have provided the 'jobless' recovery...
...and in the Process built up HUGE DEBT levels and exacerbated the Trade Imbalance...
We are STILL 'rewarding' Major companies for LEAVING the USA...the music is still playing...
http://www.its.caltech.edu/~yel/Fire.html
As long as they continue to 'SCARE' the public...people will continue to buy Bonds vs. Stocks and keep downward pressure on Mortgage rates...
Fed rates are upping to combat inflation...but the 10yr 'yield' drives the mortgage rates.
They won't allow the 'golden goose' -a.k.a. residential real estate, to be COOKED...it may simmer 'somewhat' with 25% of mortgages on Vari-rate, and those get pinched!
******theQuestion is...For HOW LONG???
I say 2007....JMHO though.
teknobucks
Active member
imported post
Citizen wrote:
jmho
Citizen wrote:
no in 2007the markets will correct big time:^ LOL
jmho
teknobucks
Active member
imported post
grandma wrote:
...was tied up yesterday am and did not get the order in in time.
hope for a green day thur to sell into. will leavemy usual 7% in each stock fund...rest in G
good luck 2 all!
grandma wrote:
no
...was tied up yesterday am and did not get the order in in time.hope for a green day thur to sell into. will leavemy usual 7% in each stock fund...rest in G
good luck 2 all!
teknobucks
Active member
imported post
teknobucks wrote:
http://www.mte.net.au/futurewatch/id14.htm
all my trading buddies that follow this forecasting tool (term used loosely) seem to think mar 2005 thru aug 2005 will be a rough spot. then up up up till 2007.
fwiw
tekno
teknobucks wrote:
http://www.mte.net.au/futurewatch/id14.htm
all my trading buddies that follow this forecasting tool (term used loosely) seem to think mar 2005 thru aug 2005 will be a rough spot. then up up up till 2007.
fwiw
tekno
teknobucks
Active member
imported post
BUT....and this is a BIG BUT!!!!
do not take advise from me......i'm an old burnt out air controller.
following this 1929 v. 2000 naz model has made some $$$ for me over the last year. if she continues to follow the model i will be pinching myself to death. LOL
BUT....and this is a BIG BUT!!!!
do not take advise from me......i'm an old burnt out air controller.
following this 1929 v. 2000 naz model has made some $$$ for me over the last year. if she continues to follow the model i will be pinching myself to death. LOL
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
teknobucks wrote:
If Mar thur Aug is the rough spot...what was the forecast for Jan 05?
Tuxx
teknobucks wrote:
Tekno,
If Mar thur Aug is the rough spot...what was the forecast for Jan 05?
Tuxx
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