Market Talk

[teknobucks]

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Citizen

Idid not get out in time....no rally later in theweek 2 sell in to.

Posted: Wed Jan 19th, 2005 02:48 pm





grandma wrote: [/b]

teknobucks wrote:

plan to spend more time in the G and or F this year....

long in march=major risk!!!!!:s

Techno - have you already moved from the 46, 27, 27 c,s,i, respectively?

no...was tied up yesterday am and did not get the order in in time.

hope for a green day thur to sell into. will leavemy usual 7% in each stock fund...rest in G

good luck 2 all!

 

[Citizen]

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Thanks for letting me pick your brain. Old traffic controller,huh? So that means that you can pick the pattern out of chaos, right? I bet that's a handy skill.

 

[Skip]

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G fund looks like the best bet for awhile....
Missed the 12:00 so its friday before I can get out.. Might work out as 2 big selloff days, might get that dead cat bounce..

Looking at the sp500 chart we might pull down to 1155 if
we don't bounce off of 1170... It don't look pretty..

Skip

 

[Guest]

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Mike wrote:

Until the market establishes a trend, we're in for a bumpy ride. I hope that ride is upward, but I'm getting concerned.

At least Buffet came out and said the dollar is a long-term downer. Hopefully the currency traders listen to him and boost the I fund. :^

I've heard that one of Buffets "strongest" weaknesses is his moves on currencies!

Hey Teckno, when should we sell into this "rallly"?

 

[Spaf]

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Market conditions researched as respecting the market (and TSP).

Primary market movement is not identified; correction was too strong.
CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) indicators are negative since Jan 01 (-0.1 to -0.2) for S&P.
Investors are nervous, sentiment is cautious; general talk.
Advances/rallys have no support, but, no big sell off is anticipated; per analysist.
Forecast is for choppy conditions; news.
Feelings are not bearish, but not bullish, rather neutral; ratings.

MHO: Exit strategy on selected stop. Conserve resources for better opportunity.

Rgds, and be careful! Spaf

 

[pyriel]

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OK... What is the outlook for next week. This week is a bummer.

 

[Spaf]

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pyriel wrote:

OK... What is the outlook for next week. This week is a bummer.

pyriel....I don't know! Please remember that I follow "The Dow Theory" and the theory doesn't address the current market since the first of January. I'm basically flying IFR in the clouds (in the G fund). This marketis now an unknown. And, has lost some gains.I have no indicators excapt that the money is flowing out of the market (RE: CMF for the S&P500). I decided to sit in the G-fund for now, waiting to see what happens, however indications were not, were not good??

Rgds Spaf

 

[Mike]

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The S&P fell back toward the 1175 level. Ideally, it'll plunge toward 1167 in today's early trading (dumb money), scare off the fence riders, and then rally strongly.

Since we're back in the trading range market, I see no point in dumping shares after two down days. A big rally might be coming... then again, it might not. If it doesn't, I don't see much more downside risk in the short term. We'll probably just keep bouncing around.

The I fund is now below $15 per share for the first time in over a month. That's making me nervous, but since I bought in at $15.06 and $15.09, I'm nowhere near my paper losses suffered in the S fund... :shock:

 

[teknobucks]

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tsptorture wrote:

Mike wrote:

Until the market establishes a trend, we're in for a bumpy ride. I hope that ride is upward, but I'm getting concerned.

At least Buffet came out and said the dollar is a long-term downer. Hopefully the currency traders listen to him and boost the I fund. :^

I've heard that one of Buffets "strongest" weaknesses is his moves on currencies!

Hey Teckno, when should we sell into this "rallly"?

well my timing was off this week....knew to get out and did not "think and act now" earlier in the week when i should of!:dah:

my plan: today or next week (if and when she shows a good green morning) i'm out....going 7% c 7% s 7%i ( perhaps a bit more in I) rest in g fundASAP.:^

after a few more trades i want to be out by end of feb at the latest....plan to do the "go away in may" two months early this year...LOL

tekno

 

[teknobucks]

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an active trader who is right about 70% of the time wrote this today:

Ya don't want to get too carried away on the bounce, cuz its going to be as pathetic as the last ones. yesterday we slipped through the 10 week uptrend line, don't worry we'll retest that and fall right through that finally coming to rest at NDX 1450-1460 maybe Weds. or Thurs. next week. They'll continue to contract those price earnings multiples until the market becomes a buy, in other words when upside risk outweighs downside risk. This should be next week around NAZ 1970, but with bad news might be NAZ 1872. 38 bucks is the original triple top breakout on the q's, watch for sellers to reenter the market around that level.

and another traders thoughts:

I am thinking this will be the month of the shorts not the year of the shorts but I could be wrong.The next week IMHO will determine that.

one more:

what percentage pullback are we at on the overall s&p, just curious. i know it couldnt be just 5 percent or so or if it was than i dont think all the bears would be acting like we are tanking. so i must be wrong about it being 5%. with the talk from the bears we must be 15% from the december high. all kidding aside, please stop with the overexagerations. all those charts and trading systems have been burning most of you since march 11 2003. just use pullbacks to buy, how many chances to you want. anyone making money on the shortside and covering at the right time good job, but for the permabears give up







************ premarket trading GE is at 36.00 that's up +.63
and on strong volume

 

[teknobucks]

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A "must watch" on Friday's NBR:

check here for your time zone and local channel:

www.nbr.com






Robert Morrow will be on Nightly Business Report on PBS (Friday, 21). He is a "must watch" in my opinion. He is a market technician and has a proprietary mathematical tool related to wave theory. I recall that in his early days he was a mechanical engineer and has numerous patents (perhaps related to vibration analysis).

I last saw Morrow on NBR in early in 2004, during which he predicted a low for the Naz of about 1,800 (which sort of pissed me off at the time because the market was much higher then) followed by a high of 2,400 just as the Naz re-enters a Bear phase. Here is a link I found regarding an NBR interview with him (article dated June 21, 2004):

http://www.thetechbriefing.com/issues/TTB_062104.pdf

Use the search tool to find his name once you open the PDF. Here is an excerpt from that article:

"Analysts K.C. Grainger and Bob Morrow, while continuing to be bullish about the tech recommendations they've made in past columns, including Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Yahoo! (YHOO), and Qualcomm (QCOM), believe those stocks, among others, will suffer brutal declines in the not-too-distant future. They believe that, as in the past, the spectacularly performing tech sector cannot help but decline sharply in the expected S&P 500 bear market."

" 'We will have to change horses soon,' says Morrow. 'The tech horses should lose their power a bit later this year. You certainly cannot complain about the performances that the tech stocks have given us, but the end is in sight.' "

I also found this link on SI. It is an earlier transcript of an NBR interview on 03/12/04:

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=19912003

During that interview, Morrow states:

"Well, I think the bull market is going to extend on into October this year [2004]. That will be the end of the bull market. The numbers I'm looking for on the Dow are 12,615; the NASDAQ Composite 2,378; and the S&P 1,345. That's the end of the bull market, in my view."

Is he right about the "end" of Da Bull and not so right on the numbers? He was very close on predicting the low of the Nasdaq.

 

[teknobucks]

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tsp order in:

*****position changeto 37%g ......21% in c,s, and i.

tekno

 

[Guest]

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teknobucks wrote:

tsp order in:

*****position changeto 37%g ......21% in c,s, and i.

tekno

Why not post this in member allocations?Great..I see u did.

 

[Ragin Cajun]

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Tekno,

What were you in before this change? (just to see which direction you're going)

Rajun Cajun

ZFW

 

[teknobucks]

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rajun cajun wrote:

Tekno,

What were you in before this change? (just to see which direction you're going)

Rajun Cajun

ZFW

all stox! and taking a beating!

tekno

ex-zla

 

[Mike]

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Me too... :*

 

[Show-me]

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Greenspan against faster rate hikes - BusinessWeek
Fri Jan 21, 2005 11:10 AM ET
NEW YORK, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is comfortable with the current measured pace of U.S. interest rate hikes and does not favor a more aggressive policy, a report in the online version of BusinessWeek magazine said on Friday.

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=7395610

Will rethink my decision on going G.

 

[Citizen]

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what percentage pullback are we at on the overall s&p, just curious.

If I'm figuring it right, S&P closed at 1211.92 on 31 DEC 2004 and a couple of minutes ago it was at 1168.86 which is a contraction of 3.5%.

 

[Timer]

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I've been 100% F for almost a week. I picked up two pennies yesterday. Even when there' s no gain in the F, at least I'm not taking a beating in 'stox'. There IS a time to retreat to bonds. You know February is going to be more of the same. Find a place (G or F) till March-ish and stop the bleeding.

 

[pyriel]

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Timer wrote:

I've been 100% F for almost a week. I picked up two pennies yesterday. Even when there' s no gain in the F, at least I'm not taking a beating in 'stox'. There IS a time to retreat to bonds. You know February is going to be more of the same. Find a place (G or F) till March-ish and stop the bleeding.

I agree with you Timer but the stox are so cheap right now that those who hasn't received any beating by being in the G or F will be buying a steal. The only question is when to get in and how long do they need to stay...

I got my butt whipped Wed, Thur, Fri and moved 50g 50f today. Those who stayed really have an iron stomach. I've just ran with my tail tucked in between my legs. I'm bleeding but i'll heal to fight another battle.

Good luck to you all and let's all relax for the weekend...