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Market Talk
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
Staying in and fight'n like a dawg!
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
The declines have not indicated a bottom as of yet. The CMF indicators for the S&P 500 show -0.2 for money flow. The market could turn bearish in the primary movement, referencing 12-30 HH of 1213 and the 01-18 LH of 1195. Still to cloudy to confirm the movement. Got to find the bottom, whever it might be.
Rgds
Spaf
The declines have not indicated a bottom as of yet. The CMF indicators for the S&P 500 show -0.2 for money flow. The market could turn bearish in the primary movement, referencing 12-30 HH of 1213 and the 01-18 LH of 1195. Still to cloudy to confirm the movement. Got to find the bottom, whever it might be.
Rgds
Spaf
o
coolhand
Well-known member
imported post
Took me a little while, but here's an article that mentions the fact that 10Y notes are bought by foreign markets. http://www.xak.com/main/newsshow.asp?id=36635
By raising rates the fed can (presumably) contain inflation.But what if foreign governments continue to buy treasuriesregardless ofthe yield and risk? We continue to spend anyway oblivious of our debt situation and the long term negative ramifications itmaypresent?And then what if those governmentsdump those treasuries. Now the market is flooded with dollars and BAM......Inflation.
One final thought. Currency is a source of power.
Counter thoughts anyone?
Took me a little while, but here's an article that mentions the fact that 10Y notes are bought by foreign markets. http://www.xak.com/main/newsshow.asp?id=36635
By raising rates the fed can (presumably) contain inflation.But what if foreign governments continue to buy treasuriesregardless ofthe yield and risk? We continue to spend anyway oblivious of our debt situation and the long term negative ramifications itmaypresent?And then what if those governmentsdump those treasuries. Now the market is flooded with dollars and BAM......Inflation.
One final thought. Currency is a source of power.
Counter thoughts anyone?
coolhand
Well-known member
imported post
Citizen wrote:
If they do delink however, I don't think it would be to our benefit in any event. They have a different agenda. We have been trying to reduce our trade deficit by lowering the value of the dollar, but so far it has not worked because the Yuan is pegged to it. As the dollar devalues so too does the yuan, which effectively keeps their products pouring in from overseas.
I am not implying that any of this will happen, only that it is a possibility. I'mtrying to figure out why the 10Y note is not responding to rate hikes. We had 5 of them last year and as of right now the 10Y note is lower than it was before rates began to rise. There are a lot of things that happen in the economy that are off our radar screen. Lots of what-ifs.The trick is to read between the lines. You can't trust the media or analysts to do it.
This is a strange market right now. :?We're flying in a fog.
Citizen wrote:
Since Walmart imports so much of its merchandise from China that wouldbe true. But China is an export driven economy and they would risk a major reduction in exportsto the US. So far they have refused US efforts to get them to delink their currency from the dollar.
If they do delink however, I don't think it would be to our benefit in any event. They have a different agenda. We have been trying to reduce our trade deficit by lowering the value of the dollar, but so far it has not worked because the Yuan is pegged to it. As the dollar devalues so too does the yuan, which effectively keeps their products pouring in from overseas.
I am not implying that any of this will happen, only that it is a possibility. I'mtrying to figure out why the 10Y note is not responding to rate hikes. We had 5 of them last year and as of right now the 10Y note is lower than it was before rates began to rise. There are a lot of things that happen in the economy that are off our radar screen. Lots of what-ifs.The trick is to read between the lines. You can't trust the media or analysts to do it.
This is a strange market right now. :?We're flying in a fog.
teknobucks
Active member
imported post
01/21/05: "Market Monitor"-Frank Cochrane, President of Investment Timing Consultants
PAUL KANGAS: My guest market monitor this week is Robert Morrow, editor of "The Institutional Advisory Service" and publisher of the monthly market letter entitled "The High Tech Growth Forecaster." And Bob, welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT."
ROBERT MORROW, EDITOR, INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORY SERVICE: Great to be back. Thank you, Paul.
KANGAS: As we`ve noted, the stock market has gotten off to a weak start in 2005 and I`d like to know what you think are the reasons behind this poor performance.
MORROW: Well, there`s some fundamental reasons, high valuation, I think and the run-up, the sharp run-up in prices, but the main reason is it`s time for a major correction in the market now.
KANGAS: And your cycle analysis is responsible for this opinion no doubt.
MORROW: Right. It`s a technical approach. I use cycle analysis in combination with pattern recognition. I call it intense directional determinate. That`s the branding of it.
KANGAS: Well, on your last visit with, your cycle analysis suggested the bull market would be in the topping out process as early as last October and you thought the Dow could make it to 12600. Of course it never got that high but you think it`s topping out nevertheless?
MORROW: Right. The numbers that I have now for that top for the Dow, 11180, the NASDAQ 2242 and the S&P 1267...
KANGAS: So you`ve lowered your top achievements?
MORROW: Exactly, exactly and lengthened them somewhat. I expected these to occur in January.
KANGAS: Now, I know you don`t pay a lot of attention to fundamentals, but I know you read them. What do you think?
MORROW: Well, I think it`s just time. As I said, high valuations and the run-up in the stock market. I mean there`s assorted things out there, the trade deficit, things that worry about.
KANGAS: On your last visit, you also gave us five stocks to buy. Let`s see how they fared. And look it, right at the top, Apple Computer, up a mere 155.8 percent. That was a great call.
MORROW: Thank you.
KANGAS: Are you still with it or have you taken some money off the table?
MORROW: I think now is the time to take money off the table. I`d attach a mental stop-loss to any stock position; 15 percent is a good number to think about.
KANGAS: Below the price?
MORROW: Exactly.
KANGAS: Autodesk did all right, up 8.4 percent. And then, let`s have some of the others you recommended. I believe there were a total of five. Genentech down a bit, although it`s been much higher but, and First Data off just 5 percent, not bad there. And there was one other you recommended, which I believe ended on the plus side, and that`s Qualcomm, a 20 percent gainer. That`s three out of five on the plus side and especially Apple. That was a great call.
MORROW: Thank you.
KANGAS: And I congratulate you on it. Now do you have any new recommendations currently?
MORROW: Yes, in the exchange traded funds, energy.
KANGAS: Energy.
MORROW: Yes.
KANGAS: I think we have the energy spyders, as they call them.
MORROW: Right.
KANGAS: And they`ve moved up rather significantly, but you like to buy on strength, don`t you?
MORROW: Exactly.
KANGAS: All right. And this is one of your favorites but no individual stock now?
MORROW: No, no. I like the diversification of the exchange traded funds.
KANGAS: For good diversification?
MORROW: Yes, indeed.
KANGAS: All right. How about another example that you would buy?
MORROW: That would be the exchange fund for utilities.
KANGAS: OK, the utilities spyders and they also have had quite a run-up and you`re saying that these are going to continue to move higher?
MORROW: Right. And they`re safe stocks for this type of a market, I think.
KANGAS: So very defensive indeed.
MORROW: Indeed.
KANGAS: You have another one?
MORROW: Yes. I think that gold is worth keeping a 5 to 10 percent position in. I think gold has a fair shot at 480, maybe a little bit higher over the 12-month period.
KANGAS: So this goes along with your bearish scenario for the market overall?
MORROW: It`s another defensive tool.
KANGAS: And this street track gold thing is a relatively new one. It represents one-tenth of an ounce of gold as I understand.
MORROW: Right, exactly. It`s a good way to do it.
KANGAS: Bob, do you own any of the stocks that you - that we`ve been mentioning?
MORROW: I only own baskets of stocks and not these specifically.
KANGAS: So in other words, the ETFs, you own those?
MORROW: Right.
KANGAS: OK. Any final words? We just have about 25 seconds left. Any final thoughts for our viewers?
MORROW: Yeah, I think the bear market or the major correction, however you want to call it, will be about 20 percent down over a 12-month period. I think that this is a little bit less than the average bear market of 26 percent. So it`s not as bad as it on average could be.
KANGAS: OK. All right. There we have it. Our time is up but thanks very much for being with us, Bob.
MORROW: Thank you, Paul.
KANGAS: My guest market monitor, Robert Morrow of the "Institutional Advisory Service."
01/21/05: "Market Monitor"-Frank Cochrane, President of Investment Timing Consultants
PAUL KANGAS: My guest market monitor this week is Robert Morrow, editor of "The Institutional Advisory Service" and publisher of the monthly market letter entitled "The High Tech Growth Forecaster." And Bob, welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT."
ROBERT MORROW, EDITOR, INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORY SERVICE: Great to be back. Thank you, Paul.
KANGAS: As we`ve noted, the stock market has gotten off to a weak start in 2005 and I`d like to know what you think are the reasons behind this poor performance.
MORROW: Well, there`s some fundamental reasons, high valuation, I think and the run-up, the sharp run-up in prices, but the main reason is it`s time for a major correction in the market now.
KANGAS: And your cycle analysis is responsible for this opinion no doubt.
MORROW: Right. It`s a technical approach. I use cycle analysis in combination with pattern recognition. I call it intense directional determinate. That`s the branding of it.
KANGAS: Well, on your last visit with, your cycle analysis suggested the bull market would be in the topping out process as early as last October and you thought the Dow could make it to 12600. Of course it never got that high but you think it`s topping out nevertheless?
MORROW: Right. The numbers that I have now for that top for the Dow, 11180, the NASDAQ 2242 and the S&P 1267...
KANGAS: So you`ve lowered your top achievements?
MORROW: Exactly, exactly and lengthened them somewhat. I expected these to occur in January.
KANGAS: Now, I know you don`t pay a lot of attention to fundamentals, but I know you read them. What do you think?
MORROW: Well, I think it`s just time. As I said, high valuations and the run-up in the stock market. I mean there`s assorted things out there, the trade deficit, things that worry about.
KANGAS: On your last visit, you also gave us five stocks to buy. Let`s see how they fared. And look it, right at the top, Apple Computer, up a mere 155.8 percent. That was a great call.
MORROW: Thank you.
KANGAS: Are you still with it or have you taken some money off the table?
MORROW: I think now is the time to take money off the table. I`d attach a mental stop-loss to any stock position; 15 percent is a good number to think about.
KANGAS: Below the price?
MORROW: Exactly.
KANGAS: Autodesk did all right, up 8.4 percent. And then, let`s have some of the others you recommended. I believe there were a total of five. Genentech down a bit, although it`s been much higher but, and First Data off just 5 percent, not bad there. And there was one other you recommended, which I believe ended on the plus side, and that`s Qualcomm, a 20 percent gainer. That`s three out of five on the plus side and especially Apple. That was a great call.
MORROW: Thank you.
KANGAS: And I congratulate you on it. Now do you have any new recommendations currently?
MORROW: Yes, in the exchange traded funds, energy.
KANGAS: Energy.
MORROW: Yes.
KANGAS: I think we have the energy spyders, as they call them.
MORROW: Right.
KANGAS: And they`ve moved up rather significantly, but you like to buy on strength, don`t you?
MORROW: Exactly.
KANGAS: All right. And this is one of your favorites but no individual stock now?
MORROW: No, no. I like the diversification of the exchange traded funds.
KANGAS: For good diversification?
MORROW: Yes, indeed.
KANGAS: All right. How about another example that you would buy?
MORROW: That would be the exchange fund for utilities.
KANGAS: OK, the utilities spyders and they also have had quite a run-up and you`re saying that these are going to continue to move higher?
MORROW: Right. And they`re safe stocks for this type of a market, I think.
KANGAS: So very defensive indeed.
MORROW: Indeed.
KANGAS: You have another one?
MORROW: Yes. I think that gold is worth keeping a 5 to 10 percent position in. I think gold has a fair shot at 480, maybe a little bit higher over the 12-month period.
KANGAS: So this goes along with your bearish scenario for the market overall?
MORROW: It`s another defensive tool.
KANGAS: And this street track gold thing is a relatively new one. It represents one-tenth of an ounce of gold as I understand.
MORROW: Right, exactly. It`s a good way to do it.
KANGAS: Bob, do you own any of the stocks that you - that we`ve been mentioning?
MORROW: I only own baskets of stocks and not these specifically.
KANGAS: So in other words, the ETFs, you own those?
MORROW: Right.
KANGAS: OK. Any final words? We just have about 25 seconds left. Any final thoughts for our viewers?
MORROW: Yeah, I think the bear market or the major correction, however you want to call it, will be about 20 percent down over a 12-month period. I think that this is a little bit less than the average bear market of 26 percent. So it`s not as bad as it on average could be.
KANGAS: OK. All right. There we have it. Our time is up but thanks very much for being with us, Bob.
MORROW: Thank you, Paul.
KANGAS: My guest market monitor, Robert Morrow of the "Institutional Advisory Service."
teknobucks
Active member
imported post
anyone thought of taking out a max loan from tsp and buying options with the cash....both puts and calls on say qqqq'sor spiders?
i know this is probably over the top in terms of a strategy .....................but what the hey.
why not consider such????
tekno
wondering how long this f'ing correction will hurt!:shock:
anyone thought of taking out a max loan from tsp and buying options with the cash....both puts and calls on say qqqq'sor spiders?
i know this is probably over the top in terms of a strategy .....................but what the hey.
why not consider such????
tekno
wondering how long this f'ing correction will hurt!:shock:
teknobucks
Active member
imported post
$ up,Dow down.$ down,Dow up.
...There's only one thing that seems to be certain: when the dollar is falling, the Dow goes up. When the dollar stabilizes, the Dow stagnates. When the dollar rises, the Dow falls....
....Such has been the case since September 2003 with mind-boggling accuracy - and such is still the case now. The dollar-Dow inversion is alive and well...
http://www.safehaven.com/article-2488.htm
$ up,Dow down.$ down,Dow up.
...There's only one thing that seems to be certain: when the dollar is falling, the Dow goes up. When the dollar stabilizes, the Dow stagnates. When the dollar rises, the Dow falls....
....Such has been the case since September 2003 with mind-boggling accuracy - and such is still the case now. The dollar-Dow inversion is alive and well...
http://www.safehaven.com/article-2488.htm
teknobucks
Active member
imported post
teknobucks wrote:
teknobucks wrote:
oh...should of stated sell the options when they are in the money. do not get greedy just hedge da chit out of um.
coolhand
Well-known member
imported post
On Friday oil was blamed for the markets continued drop as it rose again. Whatever. Now we have a N'oreaster in progress. Gee, ya think oil will be up on Monday? Did ya see the futures?
Iraq elections coming up. Fed meets 2 Feb. Market doesn't like uncertainty. Any bounce in the short term will probably be short lived.
On Friday oil was blamed for the markets continued drop as it rose again. Whatever. Now we have a N'oreaster in progress. Gee, ya think oil will be up on Monday? Did ya see the futures?
Iraq elections coming up. Fed meets 2 Feb. Market doesn't like uncertainty. Any bounce in the short term will probably be short lived.
coolhand
Well-known member
teknobucks
Active member
imported post
TAX TIME note:
Gottalike trading stocks inyourTSP account it's a lot less work at tax time.
None of the mind boggling entries that day trading causes.:X
*********OK Spaf lets start a new weekly thread.....we need tomove onand hopefully up a bit.
tekno
TAX TIME note:
Gottalike trading stocks inyourTSP account it's a lot less work at tax time.
None of the mind boggling entries that day trading causes.:X
*********OK Spaf lets start a new weekly thread.....we need tomove onand hopefully up a bit.
tekno
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
coolhand wrote:
coolhand wrote:
Light Sweet Crude is (in the future markets) up 1.22 to 48.63 at the moment.
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