Market Talk

[Spaf]

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I'm still continuing my thinking of "Lost Dog / Lost Market"

We had a very strong market correction at the start of the year, so strong that it stalled the market. At the current time the market is moving sideways not showing any primary movement trend. There is no indication of a bear or a bull. The market cannot get a restart from the earnings and the sentiment.Crude oil prices seem to be on the rise, and investors are watching and waiting.

I folded on Thursday requesting 100%G.

Attached is a S&P char of where we are at.

Rgds, and be careful! Spaf

 

[smine]

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I too, selling 90% I at a small loss only to see it balloon today.....that's the way my January has gone

 

[Rod]

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smine wrote:

I too, selling 90% I at a small loss only to see it balloon today

Of course it did, with the US Markets closed. I made the comment on Thursday that today should be a good day for (I). From my experience, the foreign markets usually do well when the US Markets are closed. Go figure...

God Bless:^

 

[Guest]

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Rod wrote:

smine wrote:

I too, selling 90% I at a small loss only to see it balloon today

Of course it did, with the US Markets closed. I made the comment on Thursday that today should be a good day for (I). From my experience, the foreign markets usually do well when the US Markets are closed. Go figure...

God Bless:^

Couldn't do anything about the I today, so when it's down tomorrow, it's a wash.

 

[grandma]

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When we put in any requests on Friday, before noon est, didn't that mean that was for Tuesday? ...that it didn't/doesn't matter what the mkt did today (monday), that TSP wasn't looking at Monday at all?

:dah: I am missing something here in understanding - :*



( :zzmy brain ???)

 

[Spaf]

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1. grandma wrote:

that TSP wasn't looking at Monday at all?

Been out of town. But I thought the folks at TSP would put a notice up of being closed on a particular day?

2. A down first week is not much of an indicator for the rest of the year. Therefore, if the first week of the market winds up down since the close of 2004, it does not mean that we will have a down year for all of 2005. In fact, what the historical record shows is that we have a 50/50 chance of a down year for 2005. Now, wasn't that helpful?

I was reading some of the information at briefings.com and Igot the impression that we have bull markets, bear markets, and neutral markets.

Rgds all! Spaf

 

[grandma]

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Spaf wrote:

1. grandma wrote:

that TSP wasn't looking at Monday at all?

But I thought the folks at TSP would put a notice up of being closed on a particular day?

They did. So when they said they would calculate on Tuesday, didn't that mean they ignored whatever happened Mnday? ..that it didn't matter what the Mkt did on MOnday?

 

[Spaf]

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As far as I know. The returns would be updated. Just their processing would skip a day i.e., transfers, etc. You just have to stay in Dodge another day. Some of the mutual fund companies don't like trading at all, unless you get with their high fee trading department. I've looked at a few trading firms and have established an account with Scottrade, because of their low fees and rather simplicity. I've recently liquidated my accounts with investing folks and will be setting up mirrow funds to TSP with Scottrade. This day to get out of Dodge 1 to 2 maybe 3 days to effect a transfer is a bummer.
When the market is in this sort or neutral state as it is now. I get defensive with my funds and goneutral to! I don't gamble onmaybe up, maybe down. I'll play the primary movements bear or bull. I don't gamble neutral!

Rgds, and be careful! Spaf

 

[Mike]

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Spaf wrote:

I was reading some of the information at briefings.com and Igot the impression that we have bull markets, bear markets, and neutral markets.

Rgds all! Spaf

Would the neutral markets refer to the Swiss? :l

 

[Spaf]

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Mike wrote:

Would the neutral markets refer to the Swiss? :l

I really don't know what neutral markets refer to! A new term, maybe sideways. But Swiss, yes indeed, your cheese could be intact or it could be full of holes!

I think I'll plan for a hot crockpot full of chili next week while my funds are safely in the G fund. If there is an advance, I'll add a jalepeno for good luck!

My guro is in jail (M.S.) so no insider trading for me! None, nada, zip.

Rgds Spsf

 

[Guest]

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grandma wrote:

When we put in any requests on Friday, before noon est, didn't that mean that was for Tuesday? ...that it didn't/doesn't matter what the mkt did today (monday), that TSP wasn't looking at Monday at all?

:dah: I am missing something here in understanding - :*



( :zzmy brain ???)

Grandma, my take on the I fund is this: since the US markets were not open yesterday but the foreign markets were, whatever happened in the foreign markets will serve as a "futures type indicator" for the I fund. If futures are up, we have a higher open, if down, we have a lower open. Since apparently the foreign markets were up yesterday, the I should open higher than it closed on Friday. But this really only matters if we were able to trade "instantenuously" (sp?). Since we aren't, we have to wait to see what happens to today.

The I fund is not a foreign fund, it is a US market fund that "tracks" foreign markets. Since US markets where not open yesterday, there was no activity in the I fund. No money made, no money lost. Put your mind at ease................

Have fun.

TT

 

[learning]

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Of course it did, with the US Markets closed. I made the comment on Thursday that today should be a good day for (I). From my experience, the foreign markets usually do well when the US Markets are closed. Go figure...

God Bless:^


Well now I have a new idea to work with. Thanks. All we will have to do is watch how TSP works the post and then we can decide when to transfer money to the I fund. Perhaps for a Monday you have to be in Friday or something. Or for a Friday you have to be in on Thursday. This is something I will watch. Perhaps give it a try. Small first and bigger latter if it looks really good. When you have good cards you put more on the table. Never know though the other player could have a royal flush to your straight flush. Translation. Becareful and know your risk.

 

[Spaf]

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Hey learning!

We talked about this before. Its like the song. Ya got to know when to hold them, you got to know when to fold them, when to walk away, and when to run!

Have a good one! Spaf

 

[tsptalk]

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FYI -

For the last 8 days in a row, the market has been up one day, down the next.

IBM and Yahoo! report earnings after the close tonight.

 

[Cinderella]

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grandma wrote:

When we put in any requests on Friday, before noon est, didn't that mean that was for Tuesday?

Hi Grandma, If you requested an interfund transfer on Friday before noon est, you should get Friday's COB TSP share price. Your TSP account should be updated on Tuesday because the TSP office was closed on Monday.

 

[Spaf]

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The uncertainty of troubling investments.

As a novice investor and a member of the thrift savings plan, I wanted to expand my picture of the market. What happened to the rather steady gains of the 19th century? What does the word risk mean to the investors. Is the reality of risk the same today as it was in the preceeding century?

In the last half of the 19th century, as researched, the stock market generally rose on a steady incline year after year. The S&P peaked in March of 2000 at about 1553. Since that period, the market seems to have lost the rhythm for buy and holding. In the last five years there have been few points of investing with any certainty of gains. May 03 to Feb 04 was a good bull period, and Nov 04 through Dec 04 was another good bull period. Gains could have been madein a few months preceeding these dates, however the bull movement was not confirmed.

I don't know of anyone who wakes up and tries to get in trouble by losing money. Trouble has a way of finding investors, especially whendealing with uncertainty. So I offer the following chart of the S&P for the last 5 years. Outside of the dates above, trouble has with few exceptions followed the market of the 20th century. That is to find a period of buying low and selling high, knowing where the market was positioned, and the primary movement being bullish.

The question really is, does the market offer an opportunity for financial growth and from what perspective (buy & hold, timers, traders, etc). When someone says the market has a average growth of 13%. What time period are they referring about?

TSP has a lot of participants that are in the G fund strictly. Well, maybe now I know, the G fund is trouble free, no uncertainty there.

 

[teknobucks]

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sell into this rally folks....:^

 

[Guest]

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Spaf wrote:

The uncertainty of troubling investments.

As a novice investor and a member of the thrift savings plan, I wanted to expand my picture of the market. What happened to the rather steady gains of the 19th century? What does the word risk mean to the investors. Is the reality of risk the same today as it was in the preceeding century?

In the last half of the 19th century, as researched, the stock market generally rose on a steady incline year after year. The S&P peaked in March of 2000 at about 1553. Since that period, the market seems to have lost the rhythm for buy and holding. In the last five years there have been few points of investing with any certainty of gains. May 03 to Feb 04 was a good bull period, and Nov 04 through Dec 04 was another good bull period. Gains could have been madein a few months preceeding these dates, however the bull movement was not confirmed.

The 20th century wasn't too bad either. Buahahahahahahah

 

[teknobucks]

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http://tinyurl.com/6dfk3

[align=center][font="Helvetica, Arial"]Morning Doji Star Bullish[/font][/align]
[align=center]looks like a classic example developing this week.........SEll into this!!!![/align]
[align=center]be all G fund by fri. morning.[/align]
[align=center][/align]

 

[teknobucks]

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don't get stuck in the headlights! LOL

http://www.rallymonkey.com/video/kenindex.swf