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Ah! I know what I am trying to say:

Fact vs. fiction. More accurately, what is happening versus what we think will happen.

Oil @ $35/bbl at some unspecified time (or even a specified one) is too far removed, I think, to have any bearing on what I think the market will do.

If all of these newstuffs were that helpful, then reporters would be the richest people in the world.

Therefore...another thing I am trying to say, is that it seems to me that most news is of no real impact on the market. The hard part--and I think we are all trying to find the Holy Grail here--is determining which bits of information are relevent and when.
 
imported post

Rolo wrote:
Ah! I know what I am trying to say:

Fact vs. fiction. More accurately, what is happening versus what we think will happen.

Oil @ $35/bbl at some unspecified time (or even a specified one) is too far removed, I think, to have any bearing on what I think the market will do.

If all of these newstuffs were that helpful, then reporters would be the richest people in the world.

Therefore...another thing I am trying to say, is that it seems to me that most news is of no real impact on the market. The hard part--and I think we are all trying to find the Holy Grail here--is determining which bits of information are relevent and when.
Click to expand...
some financial reporters are not allowed to own or trade stox they have sec rules or corporate news rules controlling their activities.

of course a phone call 2 cousin eddie before they go on the air ;)
 
imported post

Rolo wrote:
Ah! I know what I am trying to say:

Fact vs. fiction. More accurately, what is happening versus what we think will happen.

Oil @ $35/bbl at some unspecified time (or even a specified one) is too far removed, I think, to have any bearing on what I think the market will do.

If all of these newstuffs were that helpful, then reporters would be the richest people in the world.

Therefore...another thing I am trying to say, is that it seems to me that most news is of no real impact on the market. The hard part--and I think we are all trying to find the Holy Grail here--is determining which bits of information are relevent and when.
Click to expand...
some financial reporters are not allowed to own or trade stox they have sec rules or corporate news rules controlling their activities.

of course a phone call 2 cousin eddie before they go on the air ;)
 
imported post

Hurricane Operations
as of September 9, 2005







[align=left]

9/9/05
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The U.S. Postal Service is forwarding mail sent to NFC in New Orleans to our alternate work site; we anticipate receiving mail next week. However, some forms that were in transit at the time the hurricane struck may be lost. If you mailed a form to NFC in the days immediately preceding the hurricane, you can check the status of your request in the Account Access portion of this Web site or call the ThriftLine. If the request is not yet shown as received: [/align]

  • Consider whether you can complete your request through the Account Access portion of this Web site. Even if you can’t finish the transaction because you need your spouse’s signature or must send documentation, you can expedite your transaction by completing the form on line and printing it. If you are requesting a loan, you can complete your application and receive your Loan Agreement on line. This will save you a significant amount of time.

  • If you can’t complete the transaction on line, you can remail it and it will now be forwarded. You can now also fax the request.
Our new toll-free fax number is 1-866-817-5023. Your fax will be directly imaged into our system for handling. You can help speed up processing by:


  • Eliminating the cover sheet (if you must use one, put it behind the form).

  • If you are faxing a form that you have completed on this Web site, don’t print it in color.

  • Use black or dark blue ink only and print clearly.
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9/2/05
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TSP loan and withdrawal payments (including scheduled monthly payments) are being disbursed daily. However, it will take approximately one or two days more than usual between the date of a payment’s disbursement from your account and the issuance of the check or EFT payment from the Treasury Department. This is because our direct electronic connection between NFC in New Orleans and the Treasury Department disbursing center in Kansas City is no longer operational. Payment information is now being sent to Kansas City by cartridge from our Northern Virginia data center. Consequently, if you are receiving your payment by EFT, you should expect it within a week; if your payment is by mail, it will take longer. [/align]
You can check the disbursement of your account through the Account Access portion of this Web site.






8/29/05
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Loan payments can continue to be mailed to the address on the TSP Loan Coupon.





8/29/05
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If you need TSP materials, please obtain them from this Web site or your agency or service.






[align=left]We appreciate your patience.[/align]






[align=left]Note to employees of the USDA's National Finance Center, New Orleans, LA: The National Finance Center Web site is now on-line. Please check your Web site to obtain valuable information and instructions.[/align]








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imported post

Oceansideguy wrote:
I'd like to say hello and introduce myself. I live in Oceanside, CA, and like you all, am a fed. I have been reading this web page for over a year but have never before posted.

That aside, I have recently gone 100% I. Yes it is dangerous, but in my estimation it is not a way to make money, but conserve what I have. There is inflationary pressure ahead. The dollar is under strain. If the fed raises rates, the economy will slow to near zero growth, perhaps even negative growth. My move into I only is a temporary hedge against inflation and the real drop in the worth of my fund dollars, NOT a way to make money. I know the I fund will not do well, but am guessing the dollar is under huge strain. Thus, I am betting that the I fund still grows due to the pressure on the dollar.
Click to expand...
Hi Ocean,

Welcome! Nice picture. Here it is in a form that should work as a avatar if you want to use it as such.
 
imported post

Rolo wrote:
Therefore...another thing I am trying to say, is that it seems to me that most news is of no real impact on the market. The hard part--and I think we are all trying to find the Holy Grail here--is determining which bits of information are relevent and when.
Click to expand...
Of course. I would not consider a single news story as relevant to trading my tsp.

Have you noticed how contrarian this market has been? For instance, did the dollar collapse in spite of the overwhelming news stories calling for its demise?Has the high price ofoil caused a market meltdown?

What about whether the fed will pause or not at the next fomc? Do youthink you might be able to position yourself to take advantage of that call? Is buying that rumor in the current market worth the risk?

I'm not even going to mention the "housing bubble" or hurricane Katrina or the impact global politics has on the markets.

Those are the kinds of stories we have to pay attention to.These are the things that make up the "wall of worry".

On top of all that we have to be prepared for when the market changes its dynamic, because the market does not like to be predictable. For instance,sooner or later buying the dips won't work even though it's been a pattern of late.

I guess this all comes down toone thing. Namely that the market is always right. Respect that philosophy and I would think we'd do okay. :)
 
imported post

I may have spoken too early concerning Wal-Mart and other discount retailers for the coming fall/winter and holiday season.

So, if you were a Wal-Mart or K-Mart exec, how would you handle the winter fuel costs of natural gas and heating oil and its effect on your customer base? What would be your strategy?

Well, I'd advertise of courseand stress the importance and necessity of warm and cozy comfort ... and I'd try to sensualize mundane things like long underwear, fluffy/downy winter coats. and flannel shirts. Sensualize it with either image -- advertising spin -- or with fashionable colors.

Contrast new merchandise on the shelves. and the merchandise from the shelves to on its customers as they come out of the dressing rooms. I'd contrast the worn duds shoppers come into the store with the new merchandise they could leave with.

In essence it could be like an old fashioned Christmas when disposible income wasmuch more marginaland shoppers were more practical, less into toys that would last a couple of weeks before the kids either got tired of them or destroyed them.

Flat screen TVs would not help the discounters very much IMO.

History has proven the importance of practicality over the flashy but chinzy stuff.
 
imported post

Wall St Week Ahead: Katrina fallout, oil prices in spotlight


NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) - The fallout from Hurricane Katrina and high energy prices may crimp the outlook for company profits next week as investors await data on inflation that could sway the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates, analysts said on Friday.

News on the recovery of U.S. oil rigs and refineries near the hurricane-devastated U.S. Gulf Coast, home to a quarter of total domestic oil and gas production, will also be watched, they said.

Katrina, one of the nation's biggest natural disasters, helped push crude oil prices to a record $70.85 a barrel Aug. 30 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil prices have since eased, with October crude (CLc1) settling at $64.08 on Friday.

"Any time you have a situation like this it creates opportunities for companies to clean up their attics, and that means lowering estimates and partly, or completely, attributing it to Katrina," said Anthony Chan, managing director and senior economist, JPMorgan Asset Management.

Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist with New York brokerage Spencer Clarke, said investors want to know which sectors were most affected by rising energy prices and Katrina.

"We're currently in the earnings warning season," he said.

Airlines are among those already affected by higher energy prices, and the slow pace of the U.S. oil industry's recovery after the storm heightened concerns that tight energy supplies might last months.

For the week, the Dow ended up 2.2 percent, its biggest gain in nearly 4 months. The Standard & Poor's 500 ended the week 1.9 percent higher, and Nasdaq advanced 1.6 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 82.63 points, or 0.78 percent, at 10,678.56 and the S&P 500 Index was up 9.81 points, or 0.80 percent, at 1,241.48. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 9.48 points, or 0.44 percent, at 2,175.51.

ECONOMIC DATA

Among the economic reports scheduled for the week ahead are August producer prices on Tuesday, August retail sales on Wednesday and consumer prices and the Philadelphia Fed survey on Thursday.

Market watchers expect most of the data will consist of information gathered before Hurricane Katrina, which will show how well the economy was doing when the storm hit.

It will show "how much momentum did we have going into September," said Lincoln Anderson, managing director and chief investment officer at LPL Financial Services in Boston.

But the data could determine whether the Fed might take a break from raising interest rates. Rate hikes are considered a negative for stocks as they increase borrowing costs for companies and consumers.

"With only a couple of weeks left before the next (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting investors will continue to debate whether the Fed will raise rates at its next meeting and if they don't, are they done," Sheldon said.

Economists polled by Reuters estimated that the CPI rose 0.6 percent in August, with a 0.2 percent rise in the core index, which excludes food and energy prices.
"An upward surprise in the (producer price index and consumer price index) would be bad for stocks. . .but if you get benign readings next week, that gives the Fed the ability to be able to pause if necessary," said Jay Bryson, global economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina.

The next meeting of the central bank's policy-setting committee is scheduled for Sept. 20. Policy makers have raised the benchmark lending rate 10 times since June 2004 to 3.5 percent.

Some earnings reports will also be watched next week, including results Companies expected to report results next week include Campbell Soup (CPB.N) , Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY.N) and Bear Stearns Cos. (BSC.N)

© Reuters 2005
 
imported post

Oceansideguy wrote:
Thanks for the welcome guys. Hey, and that sea thing is Sigmund the sea monster, a very cheesy 70s kid tv show.
Click to expand...
Oceansideguy,

I need a creature! One that would depict the Fed. Open Market Committee, FOMC. aka The Cartel.

Can U find one for me?

Rgds! :D Spaf
 
imported post

teknobucks wrote:
http://tinyurl.com/7shtl
Click to expand...
Then there are the bond insurers. Last week, the four major bond insurers announced they had almost $13 billion in exposure to credits that were in Katrina's path, almost $4 billion in New Orleans alone. There are going to be some interesting days ahead for these insurers, who since they began doing business in 1971 have said they underwrote business to a zero-loss standard. That is, these insurers collected premiums with the expectation that they would never have to pay claims.

They are going to have to pay claims, perhaps lots of them

Am I reading this right??? This seems to be saying that even the Insurers didn't stop to think they were writing policies on Hurricane Territories???
 
imported post

Must be joke time...

A Chicago economist died in poverty and many local futures traders donated to a fund for his funeral. The president of (the Merc, the Board of Trade, etc.) was asked to donate a dollar. "Only a buck?" said the president, "only a dollar to bury an economist? Here's a check; go bury 1000 of them."
 
imported post

Fed is divided over next move:




Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Katrina and surging oil prices led economists to pare U.S. third-quarter growth forecasts by half a percentage point and raised inflation estimates in the latest Bloomberg News monthly survey.

The world's largest economy will grow at a 3.6 percent annual rate from July through September instead of the 4.1 percent forecasters predicted a month ago, based on the median estimate in the latest monthly survey of 57 economists. The consumer price index may rise at a 3.5 percent rate this quarter from a year earlier, up from last month's forecast of 3 percent.

Surging fuel prices since the storm will slow consumer spending and the unemployment rate will rise because of displaced workers, according to forecasts from economists at firms including Goldman Sachs & Co. and RBS Greenwich Capital. The prospect of rising prices and slower growth creates a dilemma for Federal Reserve policy makers, who must decide Sept. 20 whether to keep raising the nation's benchmark interest rate.

``Higher gasoline prices at the pump are going to put a short- term dent in consumer spending over the next two quarters, taking a lot of the `oomph' out of real GDP growth,'' said Chris Rupkey, senior financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in New York, who lowered his third-quarter forecast by a half-point to 3.5 percent since the previous survey. ``If prices don't settle back down quickly, this tax on consumers could hurt the economy more than expected.''

A report from the Labor Department today showed inflation is tame outside of energy. The government's import price index excluding petroleum was unchanged in July after three straight months of declines. Including energy, costs were up 1.3 percent.

Snow

Energy prices will ``stay elevated'' in coming months, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said in an interview from Houston. The effects of the storm on the economy will be temporary and the rebuilding next year will likely add to growth, he said.

``The effects will be much more marked on the local economies,'' Snow said. ``Fortunately for the economy as a whole, while we go through a period of somewhat slower growth and see unemployment rates pick up and growth of jobs slow, the effects will be largely temporary.''

Fed Bank of Chicago President Michael Moskow said Sept. 7 that while the storm may temporarily restrain growth, policy makers need to address inflation pressures with ``appropriate'' rate increases. Janet Yellen, his counterpart at the Fed Bank of San Francisco, yesterday said the Fed's options were ``not as obvious,'' even before Katrina, as earlier in the current tightening cycle. The Fed has raised the overnight bank lending rate 10 times since June 2004, to 3.5 percent.
 
imported post

grandma wrote:
teknobucks wrote:
Click to expand...
http://tinyurl.com/7shtl
Click to expand...
Then there are the bond insurers. Last week, the four major bond insurers announced they had almost $13 billion in exposure to credits that were in Katrina's path, almost $4 billion in New Orleans alone. There are going to be some interesting days ahead for these insurers, who since they began doing business in 1971 have said they underwrote business to a zero-loss standard. That is, these insurers collected premiums with the expectation that they would never have to pay claims.

They are going to have to pay claims, perhaps lots of them

Am I reading this right??? This seems to be saying that even the Insurers didn't stop to think they were writing policies on Hurricane Territories???
Click to expand...
Yes Grandma you read correctly. Actually the whole insurance system is based on statistics which is the idea that the more policies sold the less it costs to pay for that minor tragedy that may occur. So the bigger an insurance company gets the more they pocket. This basically is the reason insurance companies love the governments, state and federal, and why banks have insurance writers in house. Insurance companies would like nothing more than the government to require everyone to have insurance. Just as you already have in the car and housing or whenever you have a loan. This is where the real gravy is made. See insurances also can up rates as soon as they consider you a higher risk even though you may not have made a claim or had a claim against you. There is basically no system to stop them from price gouging the system such as there is when a gas station tries to gouge you on fuel prices. So what does the insurance companies do with the extra moola they have, basically they invest it just like you and I do. When the stock market dropped then insurance companies went back to the policy holders for more cash as their bottum line was getting hit.
Click to expand...
 
imported post

grandma wrote:
teknobucks wrote:
http://tinyurl.com/7shtl
Click to expand...
Then there are the bond insurers. Last week, the four major bond insurers announced they had almost $13 billion in exposure to credits that were in Katrina's path, almost $4 billion in New Orleans alone. There are going to be some interesting days ahead for these insurers, who since they began doing business in 1971 have said they underwrote business to a zero-loss standard. That is, these insurers collected premiums with the expectation that they would never have to pay claims.

They are going to have to pay claims, perhaps lots of them

Am I reading this right??? This seems to be saying that even the Insurers didn't stop to think they were writing policies on Hurricane Territories???
Click to expand...
here in florida we have an extra deductible for hurricane....similar to california's earthquake coverage.

now to be covered as "completely as one can" u must have a seperate flood policy which many not in flood zones do not have. (this is what cheney was talking about when he was in miss recently.)

in the end the underwriters have what amounts to a "legalized crime" against us all. if they can wiggle out of coverage they will. most insurers figure the feds should step in on these major hits.

hope this all makes sense....no coffee yet:P
 
imported post

The 5 most outrageously overpaid CEOs

The worst offenders
The upshot: Some boards award breathtakingly large pay packages to CEOs even as the executives trash their shareholders’ investments. The worst:


  • Top honors go to Gary Smith at Ciena. His shareholders have been virtually wiped out -- losing 93% in the past four years. His compensation over that period: $41.2 million.

  • Jure Sola, the CEO and chairman at Sanmina-SCIcollected $26.4 million during the past four years while Sanmina shares fell 78%. The bulk of Sola's pay came in the form of a performance bonus of $19.9 million, paid for hitting one recent quarter's targets.

  • Sun Microsystems paid Scott McNealy, its CEO, chairman and founder, $13.1 million a year over the past four years, even as Sun's shareholders lost 76% of their money.

  • Shares of supermarket chain Albertson's fell 39% over the past four years. Despite this dismal record, Albertson’s CEO and Chairman Larry Johnston collected a total of $76.2 million in that time.

  • Under CEO Peter Dolan’s watch at Bristol-Myers Squibb, shareholders have seen the stock decline by 48% over the past four years. Dolan took home $41 million.
“I feel nothing but contempt,” says Don Hodges, president of the Hodges Fund “They pay themselves like they are rock stars.”
 
imported post

These posts and some in another thread remind me of a book I read recently; THE WARNING by T.Davis Bunn....a suspense type novel concerning a trader who was bound to get to the top, the multi zillionare who was able to manipulate the market because of his wealth & viciousness, and the assistant banker who was given the insight to warn others of what was coming in the market.... a lot of `puts,' `shorts' and `longs' language!The story helped me understand a tad bitof the workings of the people who are `hands on.' I have strongly believed for a long time that the market & politics are fully governed & thus manipulated by a few unkn certain people behind the scenes -
 
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