Market Talk

[teknobucks]

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the U.S. Coast Guard said yesterday that 52 energy-production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico were missing and 58 were damaged by the hurricane, nearly double the report of missing or damaged platforms Tuesday

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[robo]

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Some comments from a tech:

A Matter of Volume
Friday, September 9, 2005, 8:39 am
Higher volume is necessary if stocks are really going to break out

AT A GLANCE: Without an increase in volume, I can't see the S&P 500 reaching a new high above 1245. If volume increases, the Price/Volume Charts of both the S&P and the NASDAQ have a chance of producing bullish, clockwise false reversals. Meanwhile the Summary Index has reached 9.35, and is quickly approaching its sell signal trigger at 17, and the moving averages will soon be under pressure. So if there is to be a breakout, it must happen in the next week and a half.


The S&P 500 closed at 1231.67 and will meet its uptrend line today if it falls to 1229. I don't expect much from today's trading since the weekend is coming, and volume has been uncommonly low for the post-Labor Day week -- it is likely that a breakout will have to wait until next week at the earliest.Thursdy, September 8th

 

[Rolo]

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learning wrote:

Odds of a hit somewhere I do not know. Odds that the market will recover same day, I do not know.

Precisely. Don't gamble on complete unknowns.

learning wrote:

The market has recovered in some cases the same day.

In any case...it always recovers...life does go on.

learning wrote:

There is a saying that the military may not teach but I like, “Better judged by 12 then carried by 6”.

Also applies to civilian life. :X

 

[Rolo]

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teknobucks wrote:

yeah but u go off on those pt cruiser trips for 5-6months...at least u found yer way back...LOL

LOL!

teknobucks wrote:

One measure of this market is how it responds to bad news. So far, it falls reluctantly and climbs methodically. It will take something dramatic to change that dynamic in my opinion.

Very insightful.

 

[FundSurfer]

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I'm surprised I haven't read this from any of y'all so I'm gonna think out loud for a few minutes.

Oil is up. This means our trade balance is getting worse. It also means the dollar should be headed down (it has bounced slightly the last few days off of heading down). Our grain exports and other exports may be significantly impacted by loss of New Orleans port activity. Again hurting trade balance, bad for dollar.

US is going to spend 60+ Billion on disaster relief and not going to raise any money anywhere to do it. More debt. Should lower the value of the dollar. Anyone else seeing a trend here?

Foreign stocks have done very well this year compared to US. US economy likely to take a hit due to hurricane. There can be an argument made that the disaster will put more money into the system and after a slight dip in productivity will lead to greater productivity in 6 months or so. Short term I see many Americans donating to charity (a good thing) which means less money in their pockets for Christmas spending…. We haven’t seen the effect of higher gas prices have full effect on the economy yet, this won’t be seen for a couple months yet as companies begin to report earnings and point to Katrina or gas prices as reasons for not meeting expectations.

Foreign country’s are sending disaster aid to US. This actually helps our trade balance but isn’t it mostly token from a big picture perspective?

I’m thinking the I-fund is the place to be through the end of the year. I haven’t had time recently to do a lot of my own homework and to a great extent have relied on many of y’all for help making decisions. I’m just surprised this line of thinking hasn’t been brought up.

 

[coolhand]

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FWIW I think the market is running on greed, fear and emotion as it runs toward a top. That top may be months away yet, and I think it is. The dollar needs serious LT consideration given the market dynamics of our own economy. That means the "I" fund should be carefully weighed wrt the dollar.

Currently 40/60 si.

 

[mlk_man]

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Definitely a lot of people buying Japan(EWJ)

 

[Rolo]

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coolhand wrote:

FWIW I think the market is running on greed, fear and emotion as it runs toward a top. That top may be months away yet, and I think it is.

It really doesn't matter why the market does what it does. I just want to anticipate it,not understand it.



For scale...what is the total market capitalisation for the S&P 500, or even the Wilshire 5000? Compare that to a measley $60B "unfunded". These 'incidentals' may not matter much.

 

[smine]

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Ohhhh MM! Looks like you're making a killin' today! And the I fund with Cowboy.....good move! Such daring investors. It's fun when it works but really is a weekend downer when it loses big. Congrats to you both for a savvy financial week.

 

[Oceansideguy]

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I'd like to say hello and introduce myself. I live in Oceanside, CA, and like you all, am a fed. I have been reading this web page for over a year but have never before posted.

That aside, I have recently gone 100% I. Yes it is dangerous, but in my estimation it is not a way to make money, but conserve what I have. There is inflationary pressure ahead. The dollar is under strain. If the fed raises rates, the economy will slow to near zero growth, perhaps even negative growth. My move into I only is a temporary hedge against inflation and the real drop in the worth of my fund dollars, NOT a way to make money. I know the I fund will not do well, but am guessing the dollar is under huge strain. Thus, I am betting that the I fund still grows due to the pressure on the dollar.

 

[Rolo]

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Welcome, OG!

 

[Spaf]

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Hi Oceansideguy! Hey I like your pic. Can I borrow him? Cute little fellow!
I'll Delete your double post! Sometimes posts slow down. Rgds! Spaf

 

[coolhand]

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Rolo wrote:

coolhand wrote:

FWIW I think the market is running on greed, fear and emotion as it runs toward a top. That top may be months away yet, and I think it is.

I just want to anticipate it,not understand it.

Okay, how do you do one without the other? In a market where worry rules and the market is moving sideways80% of the time,technicals alone may not give us a fast enough hint. Technical confirmationhappenstoo slow to catchthese 3-5 day moves up. Look at this pastweek or so.

But what's the trend? Appears to be up. At least for awhile yet.

 

[Rolo]

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coolhand wrote:

Okay, how do you do one without the other?

You may not know the details of WHY your car goes forward when you hit the long pedal, only that it does.

You may not know WHY your DVD plays when you hit the triangle, only that it does.

You may not know WHY your wife is cheating on you, only that she is.

You may not know WHY the market is rallying right now, but only that it is.



I'm not saying be totally ignorant as to how the market works or what affects it, but that you cannot expect to know WHY it must rally before it rallies...just accept it!

This is particularly true if you are WRONG. Find out why later, just accept the circumstances as they are and correct your strategy to fit them.

 

[coolhand]

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Rolo wrote:

coolhand wrote:

Okay, how do you do one without the other?

You may not know the details of WHY your car goes forward when you hit the long pedal, only that it does.

You may not know WHY your DVD plays when you hit the triangle, only that it does.

You may not know WHY your wife is cheating on you, only that she is.

You may not know WHY the market is rallying right now, but only that it is.



I'm not saying be totally ignorant as to how the market works or what affects it, but that you cannot expect to know WHY it must rally before it rallies...just accept it!

This is particularly true if you are WRONG. Find out why later, just accept the circumstances as they are and correct your strategy to fit them.

No one can know what the market is going to do.

I entered the market again on Monday. Primarily because I was buying the rumor of a fed pause, but also because of the resilience this market has shown. This may sound like gambling, but guess what...it's gambling no matter what method we use. imho. I think it does help a whole lot to have some sense of what the market is going to do. That's why I got in last week and why I got in again this week. Call it gambling, it is, but I didn't just spin the wheel. I used everything I've learned over the past year to make those decisions.

Being wrong is part of the "game". That's okay. As you said, accept the circumstances and make an adjustment. :^

 

[JOVARN]

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I was just watching CNBC and Steve Forbes said that oil will be back at $35/Barrel (he didn’t give a time line.)

Yesterday a Representative from Merrill Lynch (forgive the spelling) said that bonds were the place to be.

Who knows what’s driving the market? But news like this on National TV can’t hurt.

 

[Sr]

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JOVARN wrote:

I was just watching CNBC and Steve Forbes said that oil will be back at $35/Barrel (he didn’t give a time line.)

Yesterday a Representative from Merrill Lynch (forgive the spelling) said that bonds were the place to be.

Who knows what’s driving the market? But news like this on National TV can’t hurt.

Well, if Merrill Lynch "representative" said anything means you do the exact opposite. Bull service brokers and their ilk are perfect dumb money/contray indicators of suckers. Theyare in it for their monthly condo payments and not your financial health.

 

[coolhand]

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JOVARN wrote:

I was just watching CNBC and Steve Forbes said that oil will be back at $35/Barrel (he didn’t give a time line.)

Yesterday a Representative from Merrill Lynch (forgive the spelling) said that bonds were the place to be.

Who knows what’s driving the market? But news like this on National TV can’t hurt.

Yeah, it doesn't matter what bs they throw around. But whether or not we agree with it doesn't negate the possibility of using it as an advantage and positioning oneself accordingly.

 

[Quips]

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teknobucks wrote:

the U.S. Coast Guard said yesterday that 52 energy-production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico were missing and 58 were damaged by the hurricane, nearly double the report of missing or damaged platforms Tuesday

http://users1.wsj.com/lmda/do/checkLogin?a=t&d=wsj&sd=users1&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2F0%2C%2CSB112623039667736175%2C00.html%3Fmod%3Dhome_whats_news_us

Looks like either a chilly or expensive winter for the North.

LHM

Not enough to dampen holiday spending ... if the Fed holds off on at least one 0.25% interest rate hike before the end of the year.

In any event chances are there will be no upside surprise in earnings for Wal-Mart or other retail discounters ... it will be tough for the Wal-Marters of the nation to attract those will more disposible income even ifsuch merchandise {flat screen TVs} for them is in stock.

 

[teknobucks]

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Quips wrote:

teknobucks wrote:

the U.S. Coast Guard said yesterday that 52 energy-production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico were missing and 58 were damaged by the hurricane, nearly double the report of missing or damaged platforms Tuesday

http://users1.wsj.com/lmda/do/checkLogin?a=t&d=wsj&sd=users1&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2F0%2C%2CSB112623039667736175%2C00.html%3Fmod%3Dhome_whats_news_us

Looks like either a chilly or expensive winter for the North.

LHM

Not enough to dampen holiday spending ... if the Fed holds off on at least one 0.25% interest rate hike before the end of the year.

In any event chances are there will be no upside surprise in earnings for Wal-Mart or other retail discounters ... it will be tough for the Wal-Marters of the nation to attract those will more disposible income even ifsuch merchandise {flat screen TVs} for them is in stock.

yeah....the natural gas situation is wacked!!

low end retail is on the rocks with these high gas prices