Market Talk

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Sunday-Weekly

Early Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves, & Yak Date: September 4, 2005


Market News.

Kingdom Talk: Uncertainty! Vestors worry about economic slowdown, interest rates and high energy costs. Hoping that Fed will stop raising interest rates.

Elsewhere: 49 stars showing. The 18th star needs help!
-> http://www.louisiana.gov/wps/portal/

Other News: -> http://www.briefing.com/SilverIndex.htm

-> http://www.bullandbearwise.com/


Doodles, and Tea Leaves - Weekly.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at............... 1218.02, up +12.91 for the week.
CMF (money flow) at... -0.121, up
RSI (strength) at......... 48.6, up
MACD (trend)....-------
S-STO (signal)..bullish
P-SAR (signal)..bullish
ROC (change)...bearish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at:.............67.57, up +1.44 for the week.

Attachment: S&P (3mo) chart ending 09-02. Added: 20dMA, P-SAR, MACD, S-STO, and ROC.


Tea leaves: Yellow (Caution, oil still high + uncertainty)


Yak.

Remarks:..........Holding 50/50

S&P Stops: Alert: 1210, Trailing: 1198.

Oil Markers: OK=<64, Worry=64-69, Panic=>69

Weekly TSP Returns: G=+.01, F=+.09, C=+.15, S=+.29, I=+.45

Rgds, and be careful! Spaf

 

[Guest]

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Last year (2004), this is how the funds did between the Friday before Labor Day and the Friday after Labor Day:

F-fund up 0.59%
C-fund up 0.93%
S-fund up 1.50%
I-fund up 1.75%

 

[Rolo]

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It looks like S & I may be the places to be henceforth, assuming enough similarities between last year and this year.

 

[teknobucks]

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Rolo wrote:

It looks like S & I may be the places to be henceforth, assuming enough similarities between last year and this year.

better throw the C in there also Rolo.

welcome back btw!

 

[pyriel]

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I hope you guys are right. My move is not effective until Monday...;-)

 

[robo]

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Some comments from a Tech:

9/4/05 Week-end Report

The Long-term trend is beginning to show signs that a top is now in sight but could still be several months away.

Intermediate-term trend: Still correcting with a probable low in early October.

Short-term trend: Up since last Monday and expected to make further progress in the coming week.

So far, it looks as if the short-term up trend is only a counter-trend to the correction which started at the beginning of August. A couple of weeks ago I wrote of a cyclic time window which could bring this about, but mentioned that it was not expected to be the beginning of a significant trend reversal. I am still of that opinion. After reaching an overbought condition, the short-term indicators needed to correct and, as of Friday, they have just about completed that correction. The next up move will tell us a great deal about how much more price appreciation to expect. I have already give the parameters to look for, but will repeat them.

If the SPX rises above 1229, it should be able to extend its move to 1236/1246. These are projections that are based on Fibonacci ratios that have consistently defined the minimum and maximum limits of a move out of a consolidation/distribution area. (This is not a Fibonacci retracement calculation, although it can coincide with one.) If the projection is exceeded, as was the case last week by the SPX, it is a sign of strength which normally results in a well-contained pull-back followed by a continuation move in the same direction. This is one of the reasons why I expect the rally to continue. Another, is that the short-term structure appears to be incomplete, and a third is that the McClellan has now broken above a downtrend line, which is a sign of returning strength.

The QQQQ is not quite as strong because it only reached the maximum projection of 39.15 given in the Closing Comment on 8/30. But that, too, is a sign that the rally will probably continue, whereby if the indices had stopped at their minimum projected targets, this would have been a sign of weakness.

If the QQQQ is able to surpass 39.20, this should trigger an extension of its rally to 39.43/39.75.

Using the same logic as discussed above, if only the lower portion of the next given projection zone is reached, it will be signify that the current rally is probably over and that the intermediate correction is ready to resume its downward path dictated by the larger cycle which is expected to make its low in early October.

Another sign that the QQQQ is slightly weaker than the SPX is that its first rally was to a price level which was just shy of a .50 retracement, whereby the SPX almost reached a .618 retracement. from the 1245 top.

On the other hand, the SPX has retraced a little more of the entire move from the April/May lows than the QQQQ, and this bodes well for the longer-term move to continue after the current intermediate correction has ended. Since the 50% retracement level of the SPX is 1190, this is a good number to keep in mind come early October.

This guy has a pretty good track record, but one never knows....History dictates we must all be very careful of this market the next 2 months.....

 

[Rolo]

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So possibly two or threeweeks of up, then a dip then.

 

[Show-me]

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I saved you picks from way back and kudos to you!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?s=PSPFX,RSNRX,QRACX,UNWPX,OSMCX,QSCCX,RSPFX,SMTVX,RSVAX&d=v1

 

[Guest]

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[Rolo]

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Show-me wrote:

I saved you picks from way back and kudos to you!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?s=PSPFX,RSNRX,QRACX,UNWPX,OSMCX,QSCCX,RSPFX,SMTVX,RSVAX&d=v1

hehe I still have all of those, except SMTVX changed its ticker when Wells Fargo bought Strong to SDVIX or SMMVX (I have both). My SEP IRA is a small amount, so I don't get too aggressive with it. I'm not too thrilled with either of these and will likely replace them with just one general fund of some sort after the quarterlies are paid in Oct.

The Oppenheimer funds scared me when they did their distributions...the NAV just plummeted and the reason wasn't apparent for three days until the distributions showed up. Unfortunately, it throws the whole chart off as well as my Quicken.

I can't see any way to improve this portfolio yet...I have some ideas in other threads.

Sector plays is all I see...I think that is how you really outperform the market. I find TSP tweaking much harder.

 

[Rolo]

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Boy did 2004 suck...the ever-elusive W.

The inverse mountain peak we just had looks promising. If next week isn't up for the C, I may move it all to I.

 

[teknobucks]

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http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=7620700

and futures are now positive... http://money.cnn.com/markets/afterhours/

 

[teknobucks]

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perhaps the I fundhas some pits......

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/9208487/page/2/

ya know folks overseas are worried and concerned when they......


http://msnbc.msn.com/id/9187260/

 

[teknobucks]

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http://marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Swenlin/pg1.htm

audio link of geeky chartist...not someone who has great skill as an orator. a poor presentation does nothave a bearing on stock knowledge. most of your seminar and stock letter folks did better in english and speach than they did in investing, trading, or business.

folks who have good grammar, speach, and academic skillshelped someone generate the phrase " if you are so smart why aren't you rich"

 

[teknobucks]

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http://www.airportbusiness.com/article/article.jsp?siteSection=1&id=3343

 

[teknobucks]

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derivatives market, energy, and banking.

the BIG three now

tekno

 

[robo]

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Tom wrote:

Of the 6 Fridays before that were negative, the Tuesday after was positive 5 times.

Tom pointedthis out last week in his comments about the Friday before Labor Day....He did state he did not use much data; see his comments from last week......

However, hard to say what investors will be thinking tomorrow when they return to work after this terrible tragedy in the gulf............

 

[ou81200]

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Coal---

I've been thinking about investing in the coal market. I was looking at Arch coal. (ACI)

Any input???

TIA

 

[JOVARN]

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As the EPA lifted the restrictions on pollution I would guess coal is in for a wind fall.

Pollution causes the depletion of the ozone that causes Hurricanes so the logical approach would be to lift pollution restrictions so we get more Hurricanes.

 

[Rolo]

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JOVARN wrote:

Pollution causes the depletion of the ozone that causes Hurricanes so the logical approach would be to lift pollution restrictions so we get more Hurricanes.

Horse-puckey.

Solar radiation, via the Van Allen Belts, kill more Ozone than man could ever hope to. That is why the holes are at the poles. "This behaviour is by design."

One volcano eruption produces more pollution than all of mankind throughout history.

By this logic, then, we would have to extinguish the sun (or move Earth away from its reach) and plug up all the magma holes.