Market Talk

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Gulf refineries close to restarting

TWO OTHERS HAD MAJOR DAMAGE FROM HURRICANE

By Steve Quinn

Associated Press

JACKSON, Miss. - As half of the Gulf Coast refineries damaged by Hurricane Katrina begin to ramp up production this week, industry experts have this message: Be patient.

``What you've got are a whole series of requirements and processes and that takes days, if not weeks,'' said John Felmy, chief economist for the American Petroleum Institute.

The going is also slow for the restoration of offshore oil and gas production. Almost 70 percent of normal oil production and half of the natural gas output remains shut down, according to the U.S. Minerals Management Service, which said activity is slowly recovering.

Eight major refineries that produce gasoline, diesel and jet fuel and heating oil were knocked out of commission and the output at two others was cut by last week's killer hurricane and the flooding that followed. That cut overall U.S. refining capacity by more than 10 percent and contributed to a surge in retail gasoline prices and spot shortages around the country.

Motiva Enterprises, Marathon Oil and Valero Energy said they hope to restart, and in some cases make fully operational, four of those refineries this week.

Motiva, a joint venture between Royal Dutch Shell and Saudi Refining, said its Convent, La., refinery restarted Sunday and its refinery in Norco, La., is expected to get started by midweek. Both are located west of New Orleans.

Marathon said over the weekend that its Garyville, La., refinery west of New Orleans should be fully operational early this week. Valero said it's still hoping to restart this week its St. Charles refinery about 15 miles from New Orleans.

When running at 100 percent capacity, these four represent slightly more than 1 million barrels of refined oil product a day.

In contrast, Chevron's 325,000 barrel-a-day refinery in Pascagoula, Miss., and ConocoPhillips' 247,000 barrel-a-day facility in Belle Chasse, La., south of New Orleans have suffered major damage and are unlikely to resume production for some time, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.

The ConocoPhillips facility, along with Exxon Mobil's Chalmette, La., refinery and Murphy Oil's facility in Meraux, La., also have no power. They represent nearly 690,000 barrels a day of refined oil products.

Tricky process

But industry experts say that even after power is restored, restarting an oil refinery is a tricky and time-consuming process. Crews must be meticulous with repeated inspections, checking and rechecking for leaks. They must also ensure that all saltwater has been cleared or risk igniting a fire.

``What you have is an important set of steps in terms of these are high-temperature, high-pressure facilities,'' Felmy said. ``And that's if you have not had any damage, and we know from preliminary reports that's not the case.''

There are also workforce issues. With communication lines either down or overloaded, many companies have not been able to locate displaced employees.

Last week Shell Oil and Valero spoke out about efforts to locate and assist employees. In some cases, it may require providing shelter near the refineries.

Valero estimated that almost 1,000 of its employees may have been affected by the storm, including 550 at its St. Charles refinery, scheduled to restart by week's end.

Monday afternoon, the company said it had heard from all but nine of its employees from the St. Charles workforce. The company has set up a large air-conditioned tent equipped with a catering operation, according to Valero spokeswoman Mary Rose Brown.

Additionally, the company has also dispatched 50 mobile homes to St. Charles for workers who may need temporary housing.

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/business/12570352.htm?source=rss
 
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Financial Impacts of Natural Disasters

In light of all the speculation about Katrina I though this might be good reading for everyone regarding what might possibly happen near term. It's a thesis written about the 1906 earthquake that ravaged San Francisco.

A good read regarding the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and its economic impact. We can speculate what impact Katrina will have on the US good or bad or rip from the annals of history.

The SF earthquake caused 3000+ deaths and $400 million in property damage. (The government understated deaths at 478 due to fear of financial ramifications).

Testing the Ties That Bind: Financial Networks and the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake
http://lamar.colostate.edu/~rphillip/odellphillips2.pdf

DISASTERS AND MARKET RESPONSE - George Horwich
http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cj9n3/cj9n3-2.pdf

Measuring the impact of natural disasters on capital markets: An empirical application using intervention analysis
http://eprints.qut.edu.au/archive/00000330/01/Discussion_Paper_Worthington_&_Valadkhani_-_No_154....

Economic and Financial Impacts of Natural Disasters: an Assessment of Their Effects and Options for Mitigation: Synthesis Report
http://www.odi.org.uk/iedg/Projects/natural_disasters.pdf
 
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Wall Street Sees Limited Storm Impact
washingtonpost.com

By Ben White
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, September 6, 2005; D01

NEW YORK, Sept. 5 -- Wall Street economists and money managers spent the long holiday weekend keeping close watch on the effects of Hurricane Katrina, with many saying that, despite the devastation, the long-term impact on U.S. and global economic growth should be muted.

But several analysts also warned that global stock, bond, currency and commodities markets may react sharply in the coming days and weeks to any signs of prolonged energy supply disruption, depressed consumer spending or rapidly rising unemployment.

"The economic and market implications of Katrina, and her ugly aftermath, remain highly problematic," Robert J. Barbera, chief economist at ITG-Hoenig, wrote in a report to clients over the weekend. "Most obviously, a slower trajectory for global growth now seems unavoidable. . . . U.S. consumer spending will take a hit in the months ahead."

Several Wall Street firms reduced their predictions for U.S. economic growth in the second half of the year, citing the impact of gas prices on consumer spending and the disruption of commodity shipments through the critical ports at the mouth of the Mississippi. Credit Suisse First Boston, for instance, reduced its estimated gross domestic product growth for the third quarter from 3.7 percent to 3 percent.

William C. Dudley, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs & Co., wrote in a research note that the reduction in economic output should be limited to the next few months. But he said such an outcome was not guaranteed. "The worst-case scenario is if the drop in consumer spending leads to significant [enough] job losses to push the unemployment rate materially higher. That could be sufficient to generate the type of dynamics that culminate in recession."

Several analysts said that whether those dynamics emerge will depend in large measure on the pace with which oil and gas production return to normal levels. Signs of improvement should limit further spikes in oil prices and in turn ease the rise in gas prices. Positive news on Gulf of Mexico production helped ease crude oil prices in London trading on Monday.

However, analysts said any further anecdotal reports of gas hoarding or long lines at filling stations could cause panic and another sharp increase in oil and gas prices. In such a scenario, stocks would sell off quickly and Treasury bond prices, which rallied last week, would rise further.

Several Wall Street economists said any economic growth erased this year may simply be deferred to early 2006, as spending on Gulf Coast rebuilding creates jobs and pumps money into the economy. Several also predicted that Katrina's impact may spur the Federal Reserve to put its campaign of interest rate increases on hold. That could help keep mortgage rates low, extending the housing boom.

Money managers will be closely watching the municipal bond market this week. According to investment firm Cumberland Advisors, the three states hit hardest by Katrina -- Mississippi, Louisiana and Alabama -- have a combined $11.5 billion in outstanding municipal debt.

In some cases, payments to holders of those bonds are scheduled to be made by cities and counties that were badly damaged by Katrina. Some of the bonds are backed by payment guarantees from state governments. Many are backed by bond insurance firms. Nonetheless, Cumberland Chairman David Kotok said credit downgrades from the major rating agencies are likely for many bonds. Such downgrades could cause a wave of selling.

The impact could further ripple through the bond market if the companies that insure municipal bonds sell large parts of their own portfolios to raise cash to meet claims or are themselves put on negative credit watch by any of the ratings agencies.

Internationally, any significant dent in U.S. consumer spending could have a major impact, especially for Asian economies that rely on exports to the United States.

"Asia has been able to shake off higher oil prices extraordinarily well. What matters for Asia is U.S. consumer demand and the extent to which that's affected," said Amy Auster, chief international economist at ANZ Bank in Melbourne, Australia. "If gasoline prices stay high for a long time you have to assume consumption in the U.S. will soften, and that will be an issue for Asia."

The only major effect so far, Auster said, is that speculation about a pause in interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve has caused the dollar to fall against major currencies. ANZ has lowered its estimate for the dollar as a result, with the bank's forecast for the year-end shifting from 115 yen per dollar to 106 yen per dollar.

Hans Timmer, chief macroeconomic forecaster at the World Bank, said that if oil prices remain high "the biggest impact by far will be on the poorest countries" such as Ethiopia and Kenya that do not produce oil and must spend a large proportion of their output on oil imports.
 
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looks like a major rally will now commence.....kicking my butt for selling down my position last fri.:dah:

keep in mind the heavy wieghts are back to work on wall street after summer break.
 
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http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?itemid=1446&catid=3

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Greenspan to visit Japan next month
Fed chairman to meet counterpart, speak before business leaders
The Associated Press
Updated: 11:21 a.m. ET Sept. 6, 2005

Speculation is rampant that Greenspan is going to ask the Japanese for a financial bail out\disaster relief. If that is indeed the case I'm curious as to what form it will take and at what price. It is quite possible that it will require the sale of some treasuries to the Japanese who already hold a great deal as it is. It would further depress the dollar on speculation, but IMO the Fed won't ramp up money supply growth more than what the Japanese are willing to buy. It's funny because he is going directly to the only economy that is leading out of the global contraction phase. Will the Japanese be willing to take the hit?

TOKYO - U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will visit Japan in October to meet with his Japanese counterpart and give a speech to business leaders, Japan's central bank said Tuesday.

Greenspan, to visit Tokyo at the invitation of the Bank of Japan, will deliver a speech hosted by Keidanren and two other major Japanese business lobbies on Oct. 18, a bank spokesman said on condition of customary anonymity.

Greenspan's talks with Bank of Japan Gov. Toshihiko Fukui are currently being arranged for Oct. 17 or 18, he said.

The bank spokesman refused to comment on the timing of Greenspan's visit to Japan or topics the two central bankers are expected to discuss.

The announcement of Greenspan's two-day visit comes just as fallout from the hurricane that devastated parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast and high oil prices have added to concern about the U.S. economy and undermined expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates further.

Greenspan last visited Japan in January 2000, when he attended a Tokyo meeting of finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven industrialized countries.
Copyright 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

© 2005 MSNBC.com

URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9227262/
 
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Are you Listening..... I think those that are short are getting squeezed today... Cash is always King when the Buy Signal is coming........... One day is not a trend asthe article below points out.........

Market ListenerUpdate ForMondaySep6,20051:00PMCDT


TODAY'S MARKET:TheEXIT signal, trade your RYVNX/RYCWX and go to CASH (RYMXX).
InRydex, trade out of RYVNX/RYCWX (Venture 100/Inverse Dow) and into RYMXX Govt Money Market fund. Do NOT go long/buy until the next trend has developed. The NDX may sell down slightly before the close and may end up under our stop level of 1590. However, we can't be too precise in the next 2 hours, so I am going to exit my short funds and go to cash regardless of where NDX closes for the day.


We are trend followers and our trend timing is based on jumping on the train shortly AFTER it has left the station. Sometimes, like for the last few days and today, the train stopped moving in our direction and actually begins to REVERSE at which time we jump off. We must make sure that it is truly heading north again before we go to a buy/long signal.

Contrarian markets are at work today again as they were last week.
This is from Christopher Johnson at SchaeffersResearch.com;
Now I know that I normally focus on quantified measures when we take this weekly gander into the crystal ball, but this week I can't help but bring up a subjective observation that has been hitting me over the head the past few weeks. While not keeping track with my mental scratchpad of how many times I've heard about the dismal outlook for September based on historical numbers, I can say that it's been enough to pique my curiosity such that I now wonder if we're setting up for a tradable upside move this month. The analyst community has been very vocal in the media this year about the dangers of trading the markets during September. The last time I felt this way and heard this much bantering about September was when I wrote the following: "Today we're hearing similar drums of war, with market experts telling us repeatedly that September ranks as the worst single month to invest in the market. We see the addition of this anecdotal pessimism strengthening the short-term bullish case. When these same people that are warning us today tell us that we can't afford to stay away from the market, then it's time to act cautiously."

Dr. McHugh issued a report on SafeHaven.com today addressing the recent history of Autumn/Sept market sell-offs. Remember, for trend followers, we DO NOT respect history and we do not try to predict the next trend based on what happended LAST YEAR. History is no predictor of the future. McHugh could be right, but only because he would be lucky. A coin flip is always a 50% toss, even if the prior 8 tosses were all heads! History has no impact on the next flip. If McHugh happens to be correct and we do get a sell-off, as trend followers, we will profit from it without predicting it.


The movement up today is due to short covering and a fall in oil prices. This appears to be a contra-trend move and so may be limited in duration and extent. It could reach 78% (SPX) of the recent down move, or it could be a rally to new highs.


Our Fault Tolerant Cash Safety Stop did exactly what it is supposed to do and that is get us out of a market that is moving against us. Trend trading with a close cash stop is similar to buying an option (call option for a "buy" signal and put option for a "sell signal"). In such trend following, we can have unlimited profit in our trade if the trend continues in our direction. But we have "limited" downside when our stop is hit and we get out quickly with little or no loss since the signal was introduced.


Remain in CASH until we get a breakout above recent highs or resume the recent downward trend. We will advise when the next buy or sell signal is in effect. For now, stay in the safety of CASH.


FAULT TOLERANT CASH SAFETY STOP -There is no stop level when we are in CASH.Our decision support tools will develop for us"buy stop" and "sell stop" levels at whichwe canre-enter the market one way or the other. We will keep you informed as we approach those entry points.



Send me any questions or commentswhich you may have.
Listening As Always,
Gregory W. Miller, P.E.
The Market Listener
Listening Partners, LLC

Disclaimer: ThisMarketListenerservice is free and is intended to be purely for our own education. It is not intended to be trading or investment advice. We do not publish ourmodel's back-tested results since past performance is no predictor of future gains.
I took some profits today..... Might be kicking myself tomorrow!!!!
 
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Go long and you are assured of always being on board the train. D
 
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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date September 6, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk: Stox wally! Krude falls of horse!

Elsewhere: Big Mac, big gainner!


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at 1233.39, up +15.37
CMF (money flow) at -0.082, up
RSI (strength) at 58.0, up
MACD (trend) bullish
S-STO (signal) bullish
P-SAR (signal) bullish
ROC (change) bullish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at 65.96, dn -1.61

Tea Leaves: Green.


Yak.

Remarks: Holding 50/50
S&P Stops: Alert= 1221, Trail= 1209.
Oil Markers: <64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.
 
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Some comments from a Tech:

9-6-05 After the market close.
Closing Comment
The market action was good and the A/D was OK but both price and A/D are more indicative of a "C" wave than of a "3" (short-term). The buying pressure also left something to be desired, and as the first objectives are practically reached (SPX 1236and QQQQ 39.43), we should expect a pull-back.
The manner in which pricespull-back will be indicative of how much more there is left in the rally.
We shall see.
 
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Accumulation is not showing any sudden large rise from the low it recently met....I mentioned that it retraced back to the March level during its recent low...we have a rebound currently occuring on the index price, question coming is what will be the level obtained on price at the next peak and then question two, what will be the next price drop....

Past data indicates that in the current situation there are rebounds in index price but are short termed......and jerk negative suddenly.....thats why I'm not in......considering the situation, oil is dropping but, it is so high, much higher than the general populace can endure...therefore corporate profits will suffer, inflation is abound, the feds don't admit it but everybodys pocketbook is the real gage.......and the feds keep raising interest rates to dampen something they say don't exist.....:shock::?

Let congress keep on giving our livelihood to overseas countries and keep watching us go downhill......in essence, congress is worthless to the US voter....I guess it will take a wake up call to get them to wake up to their destruction of their families, neighbors and their jobs......of course you may wish your family to do with less and lower quality of life so that others overseas can live the better life.......and also forthose invested in it to make money on your suffering.......

Considering the last oil crises, the market dopped like a brick.....what makes you think it won't again......hmmmm, because someone says it so.......if you believe that, you deserve to lose your savings.....

Remember this, the market is not makeing alot of money in the failed market of late, they sell news propping up the market to keep income coming in........sooner or later, it drops out.....

Standing by......watching the fed scramble and lie at the same time......

:dude:
 
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Comments from a Tech:

Wednesday 9/7/05 Morning Comment
I am still expecting the minimum projected targets of 39.43 and 1236 to be met, and possibly slightly exceeded, but yesterday's action, as good as it appeared to be, failed to convince me that the higherprojections will be reached.

There is a 1/2 day window to reach the top of this second wave, and perhaps of the entire rally before reversing and at least testing the lows of last week and probably breaking them as a result of the 12-month cycle bottoming action.


I'm moving to safetytoday, but I'm alow risk investor....Waiting for a pullback....

Good Luckto those staying long......
 
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The Technician wrote:
.........Let congress keep on giving our livelihood to overseas countries and keep watching us go downhill......in essence, congress is worthless to the US voter....I guess it will take a wake up call to get them to wake up to their destruction of their families, neighbors and their jobs......of course you may wish your family to do with less and lower quality of life so that others overseas can live the better life.......and also forthose invested in it to make money on your suffering.......

Considering the last oil crises, the market dopped like a brick.....what makes you think it won't again......hmmmm, because someone says it so.......if you believe that, you deserve to lose your savings.....

Remember this, the market is not makeing alot of money in the failed market of late, they sell news propping up the market to keep income coming in........sooner or later, it drops out.....

Standing by......watching the fed scramble and lie at the same time......

:dude:
I'm not in the happen of bad mouthing the government, but I feel the government is treating the U.S. voter much like those poor souls in New Orleans. There is a economic storm that that is hitting the U.S economy and those in the government are saying help is on the way. Jobs going over seas, companies closing down, high fuel prices and now forget about any more tax cuts. The way the government handled the situation down south should be a real wake up call to all of us, of all classes, not to be too dependent on any quick help from our government. I'm am a big believer in a ' tree is known by its fruit' and after observing the impotent response to assist those in need soon after the hurricanepast, the fruit that thisgovernment is producing has become poor indeed.
 
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Mmm interesting Vectorman. I think we are lucky we live in a government that is responding to the disaster as many of them would not. I think the next camera person that puts an able bodiedperson on that is complaining about the assistance he or she should or is not receivingboth should be volunteered to assist the others that do need help. The best therapy is to busy ourselves cleaning up and realizing the fruit of that labor and get this behind us.
 
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Are you listening.....Is this the start? I'm not convinced , but the guy below is......
I might add some longs after reading the data from the other Tech's I follow....
Good luck for those still long,market is holding up very well and looking good!!!!!

Market ListenerUpdate ForTuesdaySep7,20051:05PMCDT


TODAY'S MARKET:We have a New BUY signal. Move from CASH to RYVYX Velocity 100.
Our optimized trading system has indicated a BUY signal. Barring a drastic sell-off near the close, we should buy today Wed Sep 7. Buy RYVYX Velocity 100.


The latest market trend analysis indicates that the trend duration and magnitude has been shortened. Our weekly model using a MACD with parameters (12-26-18) is too slow and we need to move to a much faster chart model. We will now switch to a daily NDX chart model with a MACD of (11-18-9). A new pattern has developed in the last 6 trading days of generally higher highs and higher lows. A new up trend has begun. Duration = Unknown.


Yesterday's dramatic rise in the market was mainly due to short covering on light volume. However, if you look at the big picture here, the markets have endured the wrath of Katrina WITHOUT A DRAMATIC SELLOFF. This is very, very important. What is the Market Listener hearing from this? Falling crude oil may be helping, but the real broad answer is = This market is very resilient! Enough said? Don't argue with the market. This period is very much like the buy signal that we gave after the London bombings. We could be wrong, but the market is never wrong. Let's follow its lead. An econ note: If the FED pauses in its rate hikes due to the unknown economic damages due to Katrina, the market may rally significantly.


Risk Management: One way to manage risk is to not commit all of your funds to a new signal. In our case, because the speed of the trend has shortened, we run the risk of being "whipsawed" by the shorter trends. You might want to limit your exposure to this buy signal. However, having said that, remember that if the market has a long-term bias, it is to the upside. This implies that there is inherently less risk in a buy signal than there is in a sell signal. (tops are rounded, bottoms tend to be v-shaped)


FAULT TOLERANT CASH SAFETY STOP -We will set our exit stop at the recent low of the NDX. That would be 1550 which is approximately 2.8% below the current market price of 1595. We may tighten the stop later in the week. Starting tomorrow after your long entry into the market, EXIT to CASH on a daily close of NDX below 1550.


I know that many of you may not agree with this buy signal. I respect your opinion, but I can only advise you, without emotion, what the trend is telling us. From my past trading failures, I have learned a very important lesson,.... When bad news is interpreted as good news, the markets rally (perhaps irrationally), but if we follow their lead, the trend will make money for us.


Sendany questions or commentswhich you may have.


Listening As Always,

Gregory W. Miller, P.E.
The Market Listener
Listening Partners, LLC


Disclaimer: ThisMarketListenerservice is free and is intended to be purely for our own education. It is not intended to be trading or investment advice. We do not publish ourmodel's back-tested results since past performance is no predictor of future gains.


A warning about email alerttiming. I am attempting to give educational, not trading advice. I would hope that I can send emails indicating signal changes 2 hours prior to the close. However, this may not be possible every time a signal is necessary since I am otherwise employed. My goal is to give YOU the tools, MACD parameters, cash stop exit levels, etc. so that YOU can make your owntrading decisions without my input. I do not have, and should not be consideredto be an automated alert service.

What happens if the fed DOES NOT PAUSE? WILL THE MARKET SELL OFF?








 
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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: September 7, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk: Stox higher, lube lower! Vestors unease with hurricane and energy costs. Some see Katrina as an inflation risk.

Elsewhere: FOMC creature spotted in valley. will probably romp through about September 20th.


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at 1236.36, up +2.97
CMF (money flow) at -0.011, up
RSI (strength) at 59.5, up
MACD (trend) bullish
S-STO (signal) bullish
P-SAR (signal) bullish
ROC (change) bullish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at 64.37, dn -1.59

Tea Leaves: Green.


Yak.

Remarks: Holding 40/60
S&P Stops: Alert= 1224, Trail= 1212.
Oil Markers: <64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.
 
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Some comments from a Tech:

9-7-05

Closing Comment

The minimum price targets were reached and slightly exceededtoday, both for the QQQQ and for the SPX, in an excrutiatingly boring crawling price advance. The A/D spent practically the entire day in negative territory, barely eking a small gain at the close.

Since the hourly indicators have become overbought once again, I assume that the immediate path of least resistance will be down in some sort of pull-back. There is a well-defined trend line connecting the the lows of the two up-phases, and if broken, the decline could continue until early October. This would also require fairly negative A/D to offset the recent positives.

Hmmmmmmmm, Decisions, decisions, decisions........WE SHALL SEE..... Like the movie Short Circuit, I NEED INPUT!!!!!!
 
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Coolhand wrote:
Iside with "the market is always right" crowd.
It would be nice to get the best of both opinions.... Aconsolidation and then a nice rally.


Some sort of pullback could be very minor or something bigger... No one can predict for sure, but it's good to hear both sides of the debate before putting up our money..:cool:
 
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robo wrote:
Hmmmmmmmm, Decisions, decisions, decisions........WE SHALL SEE..... Like the movie Short Circuit, I NEED INPUT!!!!!!
Don't play the emotions or the spin. Just play the market and set stops. If moving sideways, lighten up.

But find out for your self. Go to Yahoo finance. Bring up the chart for the S&P (3 months). Check out the 20 day moving average. The MACD, P-SAR and the Slow-STO.

I really believe in stops, especially with TSP and the 1-2 days to get out of Dodge.
If I don't use stops. 1% alert and 2% trail, I'll say to myself, oh just one more day!

Input ok? Rgds :) Spaf
 
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