Market Talk

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Some comments from a Tech:
Closing Comment

The SPX challenged its trend line whichheld this time.Since the challenge came with 3 of my 4 hourly indicators mostly oversold and some positive divergence in the QQQQ, the conditions were not favorablefor an immediatetrend line break.

With daily price momentum indicators nearly overbought, a mediocre showing throughout the entire rally by the BSP index, and the McClellan oscillator's refusal to develop upside momentum, the indices will soon be very vulnerable to a decisive reversal of the short-term trend unless some good buying develops immediately. However prices will still have to penetrate the levels mentioned in the Morning Comment for a confirmation.
Will the good buying come soon? Indicators nearly overbought...Hmmmmm ......Sounds likewe will remain stuck in this trading range for awhile longer... But I think the break-out is coming...... I'll be using Tom as my indicator.... Go Tom!!!!
 
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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: September 8, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk: Vestors worry over Cartel, and over the storm!

Elsewhere: Kingdom reports that lube buckets are low.


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at 1231.67, dn -4.69
CMF (money flow) at +0.013, up
RSI (strength) at 56.0, dn
MACD (trend) bullish
S-STO (signal) bullish
P-SAR (signal) bullish
ROC (change) bullish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at 64.49, up +0.12

Tea Leaves: Green.


Yak.

Remarks: Holding 40/60
S&P Stops: Alert= 1224, Trail= 1212.
Oil Markers: <64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.
 
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teknobucks wrote:
ever get the feeling only three or four people post on this board using 10-15 different handles...LOL
not me! I just have one handle...with 10-15 personalities! :oo beheyahaha



robo wrote:
Indicators nearly overbought...Hmmmmm ......Sounds likewe will remain stuck in this trading range for awhile longer... But I think the break-out is coming......

Correct me if I am wrong, anyone, but I take a sustained overbought condition as an indicator that a breakout is imminent due to supply not meeting demand, therefore prices shoot up accordingly.
 
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Rolo,

Here is what I have as overbought/oversold. Ithink they are somewhat basic. But, if you can futher talk about them, please do! Sustained conditions, might be worth exploring?!?!

Overbought is a technical opinion that the market price has risen too steeply and too fast in relation to underlying fundamental factors. Rank and file traders who were bullish and long have turned bearish.

Oversold is a technical opinion that the market price has declined too steeply and too fast in relation to underlying fundamental factors. Rank and file traders who were bearish and short have turned bullish.

The RSI for the S&P 500 was at 56.0. 50 is midpoint, so I don't see a ob/os condition. Todays smallpullback was a good thing to keep the market bullish

Ok! :) Spaf
 
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Dow Drops 38 on Economic Uncertainties



By MICHAEL J. MARTINEZ,

Sept8, 2005 (AP)


Oil worries and a raft of economic uncertainties plagued Wall Street on Thursday, sending stocks lower as investors collected profits after the strong gains of the previous two sessions.

Oil prices edged higher after a report said 60 percent of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico remains shut due to damage by Hurricane Katrina.

An inventory report from the Energy Department showed the nation's oil and gasoline stockpiles fell considerably, although the losses were less than Wall Street expected. A barrel of light crude settled at $64.49, up 12 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

With oil remaining in the mid-$60 per barrel range, investors were concerned that both corporate earnings and consumer spending would drop due to high energy costs. Investors also worried that the Federal Reserve would continue to raise interest rates at its Sept. 20 meeting. Despite Katrina's devastation and death toll, the harm to the U.S. economy was less than originally expected, and hopes of a halt in rate hikes dimmed.

"I think the Fed's in a box here, and they really don't have a choice but to raise rates," said Michael Chren, portfolio manager for the Allegiant Funds. "Rebuilding from the hurricane will be an economic positive next year, you have concerns about inflation, and you have the housing bubble. I don't think they can stop."

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 37.57, or 0.35 percent, to 10,595.93. The Dow had gained 186.13 in the previous two sessions.

Broader stock indicators also lost ground. The Standard & Poor's 500 index slid 4.68, or 0.38 percent, to 1,231.68, and the Nasdaq composite index dropped 6.00, or 0.28 percent, to 2,166.03.

Bonds held steady after two sessions of selling, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note remaining at 4.14 percent from late Wednesday. The dollar was mixed against most major currencies, while gold prices moved higher.

Investors' preoccupation with oil and interest rates caused them to look past a surprising drop in first-time jobless claims. The Labor Department reported the number of new unemployment claims fell to 319,000 last week, 1,000 less than the prior week. More claims, however, are expected in the coming weeks from workers displaced by the Gulf Coast disaster.

"The economic data over the next several weeks are going to be difficult to interpret, and it'll be interesting to see how the market reacts," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at Spencer Clarke LLC. "The rally the past few days shows investors are willing to look past this period of uncertainty toward a pickup in growth in early 2006. It's a pretty optimistic viewpoint and that could change when the data comes in."

In company news, eBay Inc. shares fell $1.53 to $38.93 after newspaper reports had the online auction company in talks to acquire Swedish firm Skype Technologies SA, which creates software to allow free phone calls over the Internet, for $2 billion to $3 billion.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Ford Motor Co. could agree to sell its Hertz rental car division as early as Friday, with a group of private investors reportedly paying up to $6 billion for the unit. Ford stock lost 21 cents to $9.92.

Sears Holdings Corp. shares tumbled $7.04 to $127.81 after the company's quarterly earnings missed Wall Street profit forecasts by 3 cents per share, due in part to restructuring costs. The company also named Alywin Lewis as its new chief executive, replacing Alan Lacy, who will remain vice chairman and a director of the retailer.

News Corp. said it will spend about $650 million in cash to acquire privately held IGN Entertainment Inc., creator of popular video game Web sites. The purchase will bolster Fox Interactive's network of sites. News Corp. dropped 5 cents to $17.27.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by more than 5 to 3 on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to 1.99 billion shares, compared with 2.11 billion on Wednesday.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 3.85, or 0.57 percent, to 673.47.

Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 0.58 percent. In Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 was down 0.47 percent, France's CAC-40 lost 0.45 percent for the session, and Germany's DAX index rose 0.09 percent.
 
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Spaf wrote:
The RSI for the S&P 500 was at 56.0. 50 is midpoint, so I don't see a ob/os condition.
haha, I was using RSI to determine that also. (Can we do that?) Also, how does OBV relate to all of this.
 
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Food for thought nothing more. The terrorist appear to like to attack on certain days. The tower attacks both occurred on the same day. Sept 11[suP]th[/suP]. The one they hit with the car bombs and the day they took down the towers. Odds of a hit somewhere I do not know. Odds that the market will recover same day, I do not know. The market has recovered in some cases the same day. Just something to think about. I will not let the $#%&^%$ scare me or chase me off. However, the more time that goes by without a hit the higher the odds of a hit.



Wish all luck. Military, I hope you destroy them. Keep your heads down. There is a saying that the military may not teach but I like, “Better judged by 12 then carried by 6”. What do I know?
 
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looks like an up day for all but the bad news bears

Intel Predicts 3rd-Qtr Sales of $9.8 Bln to $10 Bln (Update5)

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Intel Corp., the world's biggest computer-chip maker, said third-quarter sales will rise to a record $9.8 billion to $10 billion, within previous forecasts, citing ``strong demand'' for laptops.

The prediction compares to a July forecast of $9.6 billion to $10.2 billion and analyst estimates of about $9.92 billion. Gross margin will be slightly above 60 percent, Chief Financial Officer Andy Bryant said today on a conference call.

Intel, whose microprocessors power over 80 percent of the world's personal computers, was among three chipmakers reporting today. Intel's forecast was more muted than Texas Instruments Inc., which raised its predictions, and National Semiconductor Corp., which said demand was better than expected. All are benefiting from back-to-school U.S. sales of personal computers.

``The back-to-school season appears to be proceeding well. The tone right now is definitely positive,'' said Pierr Johnson, who helps manages $27 billion including Intel shares, for Boston-based John Hancock Advisors Inc. Intel's sales ``growth is nice but it's certainly not more than they had originally expected.''

Santa Clara, California-based Intel had revenue of $8.47 billion in the same quarter a year ago. Some investors were disappointed the company didn't raise its forecast to match increases by Texas Instruments and National Semiconductor. Intel shares, which have gained 12 percent this year, fell 29 cents to $25.80 in extended trading. They rose 43 cents to $26.09 in Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading. Texas Instruments rose 50 cents to $34.25.

``We continue to see healthy growth worldwide in the PC market,'' Bryant told investors on the call. ``We are seeing a little better than the typical patterns for this period.''

Overseas Earnings

Intel is the world's second-largest technology company behind Microsoft Corp., judged by market capitalization, and its forecast is seen as an indicator of global demand for computers and their components.

Dallas-based Texas Instruments today raised its sales forecast to $3.48 billion to $3.62 billion. Santa Clara, California-based National Semiconductor, whose chips boost battery life in mobile phones and laptops, reported sales and profit that topped analyst estimates.

National's Chief Executive Officer Brian Halla said electronics manufacturers are telling him that demand for cell phone and flat- panel television will remain strong until the end of the year.

Texas Instruments Vice President of Investor Relations told analysts on a conference call that surging gas prices following Hurricane Katrina have not slowed demand.

``We're coming into the heat of the holiday season and we're not seeing any discernible changes,'' he said. ``Most of our customers are bullish.''

Strong Demand

Under Chief Executive Officer Paul Otellini, Intel is increasingly turning overseas for growth, helping dodge the impact of Hurricane Katrina and surging gas prices.

``The company continues to see double-digit year-over-year growth, driven primarily by strong demand for notebook PC platforms,'' Intel said in the statement.

Intel said today it will bring back about $6.3 billion in income earned overseas, taking advantage of a tax break. The company will incur extra tax of about $250 million.

Laptops

Laptop shipments of notebooks out of Taiwan, which accounts for more than three-quarters of worldwide production, have exceeded early predictions. Shipments may rise 37 percent this quarter from a year earlier to 12 million units, Jefferies & Co. analyst John Lau in New York said. He initially expected 11.7 million.

Intel gets $70 to $80 more in revenue for every laptop sold compared with desktop machines, according to Hans Mosesmann, an analyst at Moors & Cabot Inc. in New York.

``We're going to continue seeing growth from the notebooks even through 2006,'' said Eric Ross, an analyst at ThinkEquity Parters in New York. He has a ``buy'' rating on Intel shares. ``Intel is well positioned for this. They are higher average selling price and higher margin products.''

For the year Intel had forecast gross margin, or the percentage of sales left after production costs of 59 percent ``plus or minus a couple of points.''

Of the 48 analysts who follow Intel, 31 suggest buying the stock, 15 have a ``hold'' ratings and two recommend selling.
 
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Rolo wrote:
teknobucks wrote:
ever get the feeling only three or four people post on this board using 10-15 different handles...LOL
not me! I just have one handle...with 10-15 personalities! :oo beheyahaha
yeah but u go off on those pt cruiser trips for 5-6months...at least u found yer way back...LOL
 
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rolo wrote:

Correct me if I am wrong, anyone, but I take a sustained overbought condition as an indicator that a breakout is imminent due to supply not meeting demand, therefore prices shoot up accordingly.

The tech's I read are applying it to the 50 and 200 day moving averages.... They always show some pretty chart to support the position they take..... When your stuck in a narrow trading range, (as we are now) you here it often..... Tom pointed out in his comments about the S&P had a quick 3% gain. I'm sure he thought the market was getting overbought, so he went tothe sidelines....What say you Tom......

Comments from Mike Burk:

Overbought is a nebulous concept suggesting the market has gone up too far too fast. Calling the market overbought is like calling the price of gas it too high.

By most overbought/oversold measures such as the % an index is above its moving average (50 and 200 day moving averages are popular), price oscillators and momentum indicators, the current market is about neutral. Some shorter term measures suggest there is not much room to the upside in the near term.


Good one rolo........:cool:
 
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Spaf wrote:
Rolo,

Here is what I have as overbought/oversold. Ithink they are somewhat basic. But, if you can futher talk about them, please do! Sustained conditions, might be worth exploring?!?!

Overbought is a technical opinion that the market price has risen too steeply and too fast in relation to underlying fundamental factors. Rank and file traders who were bullish and long have turned bearish.

Oversold is a technical opinion that the market price has declined too steeply and too fast in relation to underlying fundamental factors. Rank and file traders who were bearish and short have turned bullish.

The RSI for the S&P 500 was at 56.0. 50 is midpoint, so I don't see a ob/os condition. Todays smallpullback was a good thing to keep the market bullish

Ok! :) Spaf
VTO reports went from ob 2 neutral taday..

http://www.vtoreport.com/
 
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Large Solar Flare May Bring Disruptions


Sep 7, 6:33 PM (ET)


WASHINGTON (AP) - A large solar flare was reported Wednesday and forecasters warned of potential electrical and communications disruptions.

The flare was reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Environment Center in Boulder, Colo.

Significant solar eruptions are possible in the coming days and there could be disruptions in spacecraft operations, electric power systems, high frequency communications and low-frequency navigation systems, the agency said.

"This flare, the fourth largest in the last 15 years, erupted just as the ... sunspot cluster was rotating onto the visible disk of the sun," said Larry Combs, solar forecaster at the center.

The flare has affected some high-frequency communications on the sunlit side of Earth, NOAA reported

in case u don't have windows (not the OS...LOL) ........... http://www.fourmilab.to/cgi-bin/uncgi/Earth?opt=-p&img=learth.evif
 
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Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI is suppose to be smoother then the rate of change indicator ROC, but at times I use both becauce I like seeing both strength and change. And I like using back up indicators.

Both the RSI and ROC are good for indicating where we are in respect to being overbought and oversold. When the RSI gets in the 70 range we are overbought, in the 30 range; oversold.

ROC is also a condition indicator of bullish/bearish. Above 0 = bullish, below = bearish.

RSI:
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/relative_strength_index.htm
ROC:
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/rate_of_change_(price).htm

The RSI works good with the Yahoo charts, which can be customized very easily.
Both RSI and ROC are momentum indicators.

Attached chart is the S&P 500 for 3 months, added RSI and ROC
 
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robo wrote:
Tom pointed out in his comments about the S&P had a quick 3% gain. I'm sure he thought the market was getting overbought, so he went tothe sidelines....What say you Tom......
Yeah, Thursday's action felt like abit of profit taking after a quick run up. Sometimes the market just needs to refuel. We went from extreme bullishness to extreme bearishness and then to a quick rally. The market just needs aanother little rest, imo.
 
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the following statementoff another board sums it up:

One measure of this market is how it responds to bad news. So far, it falls reluctantly and climbs methodically. It will take something dramatic to change that dynamic in my opinion.
 
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If the gambling industry reaps the benefits of tagging its chips, will the world's central banks follow suit?
WHEN rumours surfaced last year that the European Central Bank was quietly planning to put RFID (radio frequency identification) tags in euro banknotes to combat fraud and money laundering, privacy groups balked at the possibility that anybody with an RFID reader could count the money in wallets of passers by.

While the rumours have not been confirmed - or denied - a new generation of casino chips with built-in RFID tags is giving an insight into the way banks and shops could keep track of real money if it were tagged. The chips will be launched later this year and will allow casino operators to spot counterfeits and thefts, and also to monitor the behaviour of gamblers.

RFID tags are tiny silicon chips that broadcast a unique identification code when prompted by a reader device.

**very surprised rfid technology has not caught on more than it has.....should revolutionize shopping and stealing...LOL
 
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