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Market Talk
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
Monday Closing
Current up to date indicators changed today to be somewhat bullish after closing, where all indices were up. Pricing was up, but cautious. The PPO moving average was still above the price, butconverging to intersect if tomorrow is up. Timing went positive. The money flow (CMF) showed improvement, from -0.28 to -0.16, however still negative. One day fluctuation does not make the market, but it could indicate a possible trend. The primary movement of the market (bull or bear, after the correction) has yet to be confirmed.
Rgds.
Spaf
Monday Closing
Current up to date indicators changed today to be somewhat bullish after closing, where all indices were up. Pricing was up, but cautious. The PPO moving average was still above the price, butconverging to intersect if tomorrow is up. Timing went positive. The money flow (CMF) showed improvement, from -0.28 to -0.16, however still negative. One day fluctuation does not make the market, but it could indicate a possible trend. The primary movement of the market (bull or bear, after the correction) has yet to be confirmed.
Rgds.
Spaf
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
MarketTimer wrote:
Mike, I'll apologize for his rudeness since it doesn't look like anyone is going to do anything about it. Please just ignore the guy.
100M to invest in a fund, WOW!
MarketTimer wrote:
I don't think markettimer can post his moves here because, at least from what I can tell, he's not in TSP anymore. Which is why I wonder why he is still here. We can't short the market or anything else. Us peons are very limited as to what we can do. Perhaps he is posting in the wrong thread.As we say in Ozzy...no worries.
If you add up the 12 columns for the last 12 months return...it does not equal 10.82%. If they can not add up 12 columns correctly...what does that tell you???
Also including the dividend in the share price is not a dividend. You need the reinvested shares to lower your dollar cost average.
Their calculations are prior to management fees.
Good luck with your investments.
Mike, I'll apologize for his rudeness since it doesn't look like anyone is going to do anything about it. Please just ignore the guy.
100M to invest in a fund, WOW!
teknobucks
Active member
imported post
Reducing position to 17% inC, S, and I fundsrespectively........balance 49% G.
Order placed tonight....effective tomm. COB
tekno
Reducing position to 17% inC, S, and I fundsrespectively........balance 49% G.
Order placed tonight....effective tomm. COB
tekno
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
Rolo.....The market could go bearish or bullish. About December 30th we had a higher high on the S&P at 1213. If the market climbs out of the correction, exceeding 1213 that would confirm a new higher high and a bull primary movement. If the market doesn't climb past 1213 but forms a lower high under 1213, well back into the cycles we go with the bears.
The real question is where is the smart money? The money flow indicators looked grim for January. Is the money coming back in now? It's still murkey? Caution is MHO until the signals become clearer, could be some green, but it's too early to tell!
In the meantime I'm at 60%G and 40%Stocks....Cautious, but hopeful!
Rgds Spaf
Rolo.....The market could go bearish or bullish. About December 30th we had a higher high on the S&P at 1213. If the market climbs out of the correction, exceeding 1213 that would confirm a new higher high and a bull primary movement. If the market doesn't climb past 1213 but forms a lower high under 1213, well back into the cycles we go with the bears.
The real question is where is the smart money? The money flow indicators looked grim for January. Is the money coming back in now? It's still murkey? Caution is MHO until the signals become clearer, could be some green, but it's too early to tell!
In the meantime I'm at 60%G and 40%Stocks....Cautious, but hopeful!
Rgds
Spafimported post
OK, THATS IT!!!!!:X For me to get upset that is saying something.:shock:
First. Rolo funny post with the runner. However, that is making fun of people that can do nothing about their disability or are trying. (That is also an attack on them. They are doing the best they can.) I know it was not meant that way. And as I said funny, just not right.
MARKET TIMER. AT TIMES I HAVE STOOD UP FOR YOU. ENOUGH.... PUT UP OR SHUT UP. EVEN IF YOU ARE NO LONGER IN TSP YOU CAN POST WHERE YOU WOULD BE IN THE FUNDS. THEN IF YOU DO GOOD BRAG, OTHERWISE, SHUT UP. I AM STARTING TO SUSPECT YOU ARE SOME .... PERSON.... WHO IS BOARD THAT WANTS SOME ATTENTION. OR, WORSE YET TRYING TO MISGUIDE PEOPLE FORFUN. THAT WOULD JUST BE ........ IF THAT IS THE CASE YOU WILL JUST LAUGH AND ENJOY THIS MESSAGE AND YOUR POST FOLLOWING THIS WILL JUST LET ME KNOW WHO OR WHAT YOU ARE.
I AM HAPPY TO HEAR PEOPLES IDEAS. EVEN THOSE WHO DO NOT KNOW MUCH. REASON ANY PERSON MAY SEE SOMETHING THAT EVEN THE BEST MISS. I KNOW AS THAT IS PART OF MY JOB. I GET INFORMATION AND TAKE IT TO THE NEXT STEP WITH ACTION. TAKE ALL YOU CAN GET SORT IT OUT AND THEN DO WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE.
Now, on a happy note I feel better. I made a couple of correct calls. Just to bad I could not follow it. Playing in the woods can be fun, just no public communication. I am going into the market and will be in today. Just a little as I am late in.
OK, THATS IT!!!!!:X For me to get upset that is saying something.:shock:
First. Rolo funny post with the runner. However, that is making fun of people that can do nothing about their disability or are trying. (That is also an attack on them. They are doing the best they can.) I know it was not meant that way. And as I said funny, just not right.
MARKET TIMER. AT TIMES I HAVE STOOD UP FOR YOU. ENOUGH.... PUT UP OR SHUT UP. EVEN IF YOU ARE NO LONGER IN TSP YOU CAN POST WHERE YOU WOULD BE IN THE FUNDS. THEN IF YOU DO GOOD BRAG, OTHERWISE, SHUT UP. I AM STARTING TO SUSPECT YOU ARE SOME .... PERSON.... WHO IS BOARD THAT WANTS SOME ATTENTION. OR, WORSE YET TRYING TO MISGUIDE PEOPLE FORFUN. THAT WOULD JUST BE ........ IF THAT IS THE CASE YOU WILL JUST LAUGH AND ENJOY THIS MESSAGE AND YOUR POST FOLLOWING THIS WILL JUST LET ME KNOW WHO OR WHAT YOU ARE.
I AM HAPPY TO HEAR PEOPLES IDEAS. EVEN THOSE WHO DO NOT KNOW MUCH. REASON ANY PERSON MAY SEE SOMETHING THAT EVEN THE BEST MISS. I KNOW AS THAT IS PART OF MY JOB. I GET INFORMATION AND TAKE IT TO THE NEXT STEP WITH ACTION. TAKE ALL YOU CAN GET SORT IT OUT AND THEN DO WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE.
Now, on a happy note I feel better. I made a couple of correct calls. Just to bad I could not follow it. Playing in the woods can be fun, just no public communication. I am going into the market and will be in today. Just a little as I am late in.
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
Feb 1st has not tended to be a strong day for the S&P.
The strongest day in February has usually been Feb 10. It's been up 72% of the time in the past 20 years. Feb 3 and 15 have also been strong. (67%)
Feb 1st has not tended to be a strong day for the S&P.
The strongest day in February has usually been Feb 10. It's been up 72% of the time in the past 20 years. Feb 3 and 15 have also been strong. (67%)
imported post
learning wrote:
learning wrote:
ehehehehehee..yeah, I think it's a friggin' riot and makes a good point. I never tire of it, too! It's OK to laugh and you do not have to feel guilty for laughing.
I am not making fun of the mentally retarded; I am poking funat people who are not mentally retarded who are acting like it. If I said, "Hey! Your head looks like a football, is your name Stuie?", it is neither an attack on footballs nor an attack on Stuie from The Family Guy.
So, relax, political correctness <> morality.
learning wrote:
Man, why do I always seem to be the proverbial straw? <insert head-scratch smiley>
learning wrote:
ehehehehehee..yeah, I think it's a friggin' riot and makes a good point. I never tire of it, too! It's OK to laugh and you do not have to feel guilty for laughing.
I am not making fun of the mentally retarded; I am poking funat people who are not mentally retarded who are acting like it. If I said, "Hey! Your head looks like a football, is your name Stuie?", it is neither an attack on footballs nor an attack on Stuie from The Family Guy.
So, relax, political correctness <> morality.
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
Fed raising rates and raising inflation has never been helpful for bonds or stocks...maybe this time it will be and you will all be right.
Interesting the talking heads on tv said the last week of December if January was a bad month then the year will be bad...now the are saying this time will be different.
Hopefully it is....but I amputting my money against the U.S. market.
Capital perservation sometimes is an investment style.
Deer in highlights did not work in 2000 and it will not work now. :shock:
Good luck out there.
MT
Fed raising rates and raising inflation has never been helpful for bonds or stocks...maybe this time it will be and you will all be right.
Interesting the talking heads on tv said the last week of December if January was a bad month then the year will be bad...now the are saying this time will be different.
Hopefully it is....but I amputting my money against the U.S. market.
Capital perservation sometimes is an investment style.
Deer in highlights did not work in 2000 and it will not work now. :shock:
Good luck out there.
MT
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
Spaf my friend it looks just like the year 2000
everyone bought the dip in Feb and the market ran up until March and fell off the table...now money is pouring into mutual funds after the Iraq election...this the two day run up...but as I have been saying...raising fed rates with inflation is not helpful to stocks. Maybe this time will be different....I hope so for the folks that are in the stock funds but my money is with Gates/Buffett/Rogers/Soros, etc and I am going against the U.S. market
Spaf my friend it looks just like the year 2000
everyone bought the dip in Feb and the market ran up until March and fell off the table...now money is pouring into mutual funds after the Iraq election...this the two day run up...but as I have been saying...raising fed rates with inflation is not helpful to stocks. Maybe this time will be different....I hope so for the folks that are in the stock funds but my money is with Gates/Buffett/Rogers/Soros, etc and I am going against the U.S. market
G
Guest
Guest
imported post
Mike wrote:
My friend...remember December 2000 when everyone was screaming bullish??? Remember all the IPOs that came out and double in less then a year...Pixtar, Dreamworks, Google, etc....remember all the M&A (I believe they record this month topped the record of M&A in January 2000)...corporations all ways buy at the top....January 2000 was a down month and everyone started to buy on the dip...
do you see a pattern??? I sure do
. Starting tomorrow I am shorting the heck out of everything and selling the indexes at 1300 today.
WHen the high flyers, Ebay, Tzoo, cme are getting clipped then the others will follow....just like January 2000.
Research domed house top....has happened 19xs and now we are at number 20...average DOW loss 29.9% loss.
Good luck out there!
Take care. MT
Mike wrote:
My friend...remember December 2000 when everyone was screaming bullish??? Remember all the IPOs that came out and double in less then a year...Pixtar, Dreamworks, Google, etc....remember all the M&A (I believe they record this month topped the record of M&A in January 2000)...corporations all ways buy at the top....January 2000 was a down month and everyone started to buy on the dip...
do you see a pattern??? I sure do
. Starting tomorrow I am shorting the heck out of everything and selling the indexes at 1300 today.WHen the high flyers, Ebay, Tzoo, cme are getting clipped then the others will follow....just like January 2000.
Research domed house top....has happened 19xs and now we are at number 20...average DOW loss 29.9% loss.
Good luck out there!
Take care. MT
imported post
I also watch a www.fedsmith.com program and for the last twelve months the I fund has had more positive ( or less of the negetive) eight time vs the S funds 4 times (beating the I fund). For February (2004) they did pretty good. So I think I'll stay in the I fund and see what happens for from day to day. Any comments???
Thanks for the site
I also watch a www.fedsmith.com program and for the last twelve months the I fund has had more positive ( or less of the negetive) eight time vs the S funds 4 times (beating the I fund). For February (2004) they did pretty good. So I think I'll stay in the I fund and see what happens for from day to day. Any comments???
Thanks for the site
Mike
Active member
imported post
Key differences:
Speculation / price run-up: this was far more long-lasting and dramatic leading up to 2000 and the inevitable bear market.
Economy: 2000 marked the end of an eight year expansion (and associated bull market). 2005 is 3 years after a very mild recession and associated bear market. In 2000, GDP growth was slowing dramatically. Currently, we had >4% GDP growth in 2004 (good) and a consensus forecast of 3-3.5% for the current year. That isn't tremendous, but it's a far cry from an impending recession. Another key difference: a weakening dollar. As long as the global economy doesn't tank this year (I don't see it happening), at the bare minimum, some decent money can be made in the I fund. I believe it will be the leader for the year, followed by the C fund. The S fund will have problems as interest rates continue to climb, even though this is happening at a slow pace.
As I said before at some point: I'm not big on charts and all that. I focus more on the macro economic conditions. Good economy = good market. The jobless data that you mentioned to Tom was just one-week data. That is very volatile and bounces around. You want to pay attention to the four-week average. We also need to watch the job creation numbers - as those climb, the jobless numbers also may climb, as more people start looking for work again (this is the trouble with gov't data - some may not realize that good jobs data may actually lead to "bad" jobless claim data).
I also noticed you mentioned factory expansion slowed. Again, not the end of the world. The way this recovery has gone, it really isn't that surprising - we haven't seen a consistent run-up in the economy - it's run hot, then lukewarm, then hot again. We're not in the roaring '90s anymore, so this is definitely a unique situation. I suggest it be treated as such rather than looking for "the next 2000". As long as we're expanding, that's a good thing.
FYI: even before the disappointing January materialized, most analysts were expecting only a so-so year for the market with "high single digit gains". I doubt they were that restrained about 2000 when we were in 1999.
Key differences:
Speculation / price run-up: this was far more long-lasting and dramatic leading up to 2000 and the inevitable bear market.
Economy: 2000 marked the end of an eight year expansion (and associated bull market). 2005 is 3 years after a very mild recession and associated bear market. In 2000, GDP growth was slowing dramatically. Currently, we had >4% GDP growth in 2004 (good) and a consensus forecast of 3-3.5% for the current year. That isn't tremendous, but it's a far cry from an impending recession. Another key difference: a weakening dollar. As long as the global economy doesn't tank this year (I don't see it happening), at the bare minimum, some decent money can be made in the I fund. I believe it will be the leader for the year, followed by the C fund. The S fund will have problems as interest rates continue to climb, even though this is happening at a slow pace.
As I said before at some point: I'm not big on charts and all that. I focus more on the macro economic conditions. Good economy = good market. The jobless data that you mentioned to Tom was just one-week data. That is very volatile and bounces around. You want to pay attention to the four-week average. We also need to watch the job creation numbers - as those climb, the jobless numbers also may climb, as more people start looking for work again (this is the trouble with gov't data - some may not realize that good jobs data may actually lead to "bad" jobless claim data).
I also noticed you mentioned factory expansion slowed. Again, not the end of the world. The way this recovery has gone, it really isn't that surprising - we haven't seen a consistent run-up in the economy - it's run hot, then lukewarm, then hot again. We're not in the roaring '90s anymore, so this is definitely a unique situation. I suggest it be treated as such rather than looking for "the next 2000". As long as we're expanding, that's a good thing.
FYI: even before the disappointing January materialized, most analysts were expecting only a so-so year for the market with "high single digit gains". I doubt they were that restrained about 2000 when we were in 1999.
coolhand
Well-known member
imported post
abullish jobs report Friday?
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/e4406bfe-7458-11d9-a769-00000e2511c8.html
abullish jobs report Friday?
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/e4406bfe-7458-11d9-a769-00000e2511c8.html
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