Market Talk

[Guest]

imported post

The color on your monitor may be going out...because the lines are black and red....

Amazing a couple up days and everyone is bullish again....reminds me of the last week of December when CNBC was previewing their brand new DOW 11,000 graphic.

The chart speaks for itself....money is coming into the market to buy on the dip...that did not work in 2000 and will not work now...the greed factor is strong...no one wants to miss the rally. While insiders are dumping stocks like there on fire.

Some of these M&As call for up to 8% of the work force getting cut...I believe SBC and AT&T is up to 5%....home that will be a lot of bodies hitting the unemployment rules moving forward....they will be right behind the textile workers...

Good luck out there and hope tomorrow is not to painful for you.

MT

 

[Mike]

imported post

This is a gov't computer - what do you expect.

I don't anticipate a bear market this year. I do expect a period of cycling much like last year, though - and then we'll gain a few points in the final 2-3 months to give us a modestly positive year (single digits).

I'll just make a few relatively safe plays to profit on the volatility.

 

[Guest]

imported post

I wish you luck...however most folks that trade for a living believe the market is going to be in the red for the year...we just hope folks like you keep buy the dips. The hedge fund guys are not to good at shorting...but they have been learning via a $5000 a week class that they are attending in droves.

A lot of the managers that invest for high net worth folks have told them to close unwanted positions and get out of stocks and bonds.

You may of heard Gates say over the weekend he was meeting against the U.S. stock market...they e-mail went out on January 24th.

Good luck out there and be advised the TSP folks have an investigation going from what tom was saying for people on this site on a gov computer.

You have to make your own choices...on the other hand you have to read a news story and say....how will that affect stocks? In between the lines is where you want to be....not...if the index is over 50 things are great....you take the numbers for the past 11 months and you see the trend is down....then the trend snaps and falls off the table....GDP is probably below 2.5% right now if crude was correctly factored inf or the $47 a barrell and not $25 gov number. Remember Greenspan came out about nine or 10 months ago and said crude over $40 a barrel is a short term spike...the guy is a total loser....remember he was the one that said March 1999 that tech will lead in the next century and to by the QQQs....last year it was do not have a fixed rate mortgage and take out a ARM. Leaving the fed fund rate at emergency levels while a tax cut was passed was a total mistake....only one hurt during the emergency fed rate of 1% was our senior citizens living on fixed income....the ecomomy went freaking now where....only thing that happened is people are up to their eye balls in debt.....now interest rates are going up...that will be GREAT for the ecomomy.



Take care!

MT

 

[Mike]

imported post

Bill Gates is not a professional stock trader, so I won't look to him for my stock advice. If I want to know about something computer-related / software-related, then he'd be a guy to talk to, since that's his specialty and what made him extremely rich.

FWIW - if you have followed anything I've done thus far - you'd notice that I haven't bought anything in this latest rally. I've simply maintained my position from before. In fact, I moved 30% out of the market yesterday, because I expect another dip soon (anytime you get three to four good days in a row, it's practically a given).

Tom's situation is far different from mine. He's running the site, I'm merely visiting it. If the government does not want me to visit a site or sites, it should block them. If it doesn't want me to use the internet, it should block that, too.

Besides, I can do this and not have it impact my ability to do my job. If nothing is happening here, I change nothing by looking at this site. When there's stuff to do, I do it. *shrug*

 

[Guest]

imported post

I would say with 40B Bill gates has the best stock picker working for him. By the way buffett is betting against the u.s. market also...but he is a chump too, right?

Ok. Do what ya going to do and enjoy it.

I truly hope you do well and you make some good dough and do not get hurt or lose money.

Remember it is easy to make money hard to keep....lots of millions in the late 90s....ON PAPER.

Good luck and good night.

MT

 

[Guest]

imported post

MarketTimer wrote:

Here is a chart of the S&P 500 as you can see that pattern of black line below red...market goes down the reverse and the reverse happens....this is a pattern to put on the shorts and take off the longs

Where's black line? I can't see blackline.

 

[Mike]

imported post

WW... :l

MT - Gates is worth $40B because he started Microsoft and is the primary shareholder of that massive corporation. It has nothing to do with his ability to pick stocks. He simply started and led a great company (whether or not one hates windows... ).

Buffet is shorting the dollar. I haven't read or heard anything about him shorting the US stock market itself (and we all know that he holds a lot of shares in one particular company which led to him making a nice chunk of change this week :shock.

If I see significant evidence of a bear market approaching, I'll simply bail to G / F in my TSP and pour some more money into my Roth and move into an inverse fund for 6-12 months. A good indicator of this would be if the S&P drops below 1163 and starts forming lower highs and lower lows. We simply don't have any strong indication of a direction right now...

 

[Show-me]

imported post

"In 1998, world-class investor Warren Buffet sunk over $500 million into 129 million ounces of silver, more than the Hunt Brothers ever owned. He kept his moves so quiet, he barely moved the price while amassing the largest above-ground hoard of silver known."

FYI

 

[vectorman]

imported post

More interesting market info:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050203/economy_7.html

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

MarketTimer wrote:

Good luck out there and be advised the TSP folks have an investigation going from what tom was saying for people on this site on a gov computer.

They said I can get on the site but that's it. They thought since I was postingto the message board during work hours, and that I have ads on the site that I am running mybusiness from work. So I had to stop. They haven't really banned me from reading it altogether,but I try not to because I would betoo tempted to reply and that would get me in more trouble.

Be careful, yes. But things seem to be swinging as namor got them to reinstate the site where he works and one other person got her agency to stop blocking the email alerts.:^

 

[cowboy]

imported post

tsptalk wrote:

MarketTimer wrote:

Good luck out there and be advised the TSP folks have an investigation going from what tom was saying for people on this site on a gov computer.

They said I can get on the site but that's it. They thought since I was postingto the message board during work hours, and that I have ads on the site that I am running mybusiness from work. So I had to stop. They haven't really banned me from reading it altogether,but I try not to because I would betoo tempted to reply and that would get me in more trouble.

Be careful, yes. But things seem to be swinging as namor got them to reinstate the site where he works and one other person got her agency to stop blocking the email alerts.:^

I agree the sentiment is changing because there is no arguement that the government started this in the first place. It would be counter productive to say they want everyone to build a nest egg then stop you from visiting a site that is trying to help everyone reach that goal.

 

[Spaf]

imported post

MarketTimer wrote:

Be careful out there.

MT

Here is a chart of the S&P 500 as you can see that pattern of black line below red...market goes down the reverse and the reverse happens....this is a pattern to put on the shorts and take off the longs

MT

Black line....You mean Green line!

I agree with your chart. However, the chart(s) track what happened in the past and moving averages report trends. You have to see the big picture (all the elements) and not just focus on one or a few item(s). The market could be taking a different direction from what some ofthe indicators or charts say.Indicators have various lag time; some are fairly current, and some are like yesterday. And, as you have said, with TSP, it takes a day just to get out of Dodge.

So back to my crystal ball......Yep today is a definite maybe, or a positive could be.

Rgds! Spaf

 

[Guest]

imported post

Spaf,

You can not make money with ya maybe,could be...loooks good. The chart and data speaks for itself and if you would of followed the chart and shorted and sold your longs yesterday....ya would of raking in the cash like a cat in a sandbox.

Just trying to help here.

Investing is not all this thinking and plotting and planning. Read the data and charts they never lie take your heart out of it and use your head.

Good luck out there!

MT

 

[Guest]

imported post

The market could be taking a different direction from what some ofthe indicators or charts say...

Huh???

I do not think so. That is your heart wanting the market to go up...those who listen with the heart due to greed, need or desire....make the wrong decision. You can make money in the market both ways...it is much easier to make money on the short side...so I am in my element now.

Good luck out there.

MT

 

[Spaf]

imported post

MarketTimer wrote:

The market could be taking a different direction from what some ofthe indicators or charts say...

Huh???

I do not think so.
MT

MT... I was referring to the lag time. Some sites update their data fairly quickly. Some sites it's like yesterdays data.

Rgds :? Spaf

 

[Skip]

imported post

MarketTimer wrote:

The market could be taking a different direction from what some ofthe indicators or charts say...

Huh???

I do not think so. That is your heart wanting the market to go up...those who listen with the heart due to greed, need or desire....make the wrong decision. You can make money in the market both ways...it is much easier to make money on the short side...so I am in my element now.

Good luck out there.

MT

So how are you shorting the tsp account ?

Skip

 

[learning]

imported post

Jor someone who has so little access to a computer they sure pound the rules in our head for our agency. Perhaps we have sensative information. I would believe that all agencies do to some degree or another. Our agency's rules make sense. You can not cost the gov money. You have to be doing your job. You can use down time to look at the net. No down loads. Simple. I would believe all the gov would be the same. Now, they say we will have computers while out in the field. Yea, I see that just attach the line to the tree over there, Please.:l

 

[Spaf]

imported post

learning wrote:

You can use down time to look at the net. No down loads. Simple. I would believe all the gov would be the same. Now, they say we will have computers while out in the field. Yea, I see that just attach the line to the tree over there, Please.:l

Sorry for being off topic! But sometimes you gotta let the steam out!
We have laptops with Windows 95, but they are all locked up. We have cell phones to, I think, haven't seen them, they are locked up to! If we want a CD disk, yea, they are locked up to! We have flexiplace where we can work at home, not really! Parking is $92 a month. Extra living expenses $900. Etc. Etc. Can't afford being a government worker much longer! :x Spaf

 

[Guest]

imported post

No inflation.....economy is great......

By the way from the stuff I have been reading there will probably be a sub par pay raise for you guys January 01, if any.

Good luck out there.

MT

 

[Spaf]

imported post

Market talk Thursday February 3rd

Minor declines was todays fluctuation because of lower-than-expected earnings from Amazon and disappointing productivity. This is a very sensitive market which makes some of the indicators bounce around. Pricing, timing, and bullishness went from yesterday green to today cautious. Today was a small red day, maybe the indicators are too sensitive? Buyers represented 22%, Sellers 15%, and Holders 63%. The CMF money flow has been increasing, now in the positive range by a small amount. Pricing is above the moving average. Some analysis say neutral, some say long. The trend is Up, however I'm cautious, watching the market daily.

Allocations are at this time:

20-30% G-fund/MM for cash and capital preservation.
0 -10% F-fund/20+yr treasury
20% C-fund/S&P500
30% S-fund/Small Caps
20-10% I-fund/Australia

Rgds, and be careful! Spaf