Market Talk

[tsptalk]

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MarketTimer wrote:

Deer in highlights did not work in 2000 and it will not work now. :shock:

Certainly what we saw in 2000 was a deer in the headlights situation as we were programmed to buy every dip for four years. But the economy was deteriorating under the radar and there was a valid reason for the market to go into a 3 yearfunk. Things are different today so maybe your 1987 comparison is more valid. For the record, I made4.5% in 2000 asI recognized the warning signs.My problem was I thought the damage was done and I got spanked in 2001 and 2002.

In 1987 investorswere blindsided by the drop unlike the slow melt down ofthe early 2000's. If we get that type of market action again, you will make a name for yourself for calling it. Not many called the 1987 drop. I remember 1987 but I don't recallexactly what caused thatsituation as I believe my TSP account was about $332 at the time.

I do see your point about the dollar dropping in 1987. That was some drop, 150 to about 90 in 2 1/2 years. We have now dropped from 120 to 80 (at the bottom) in the last 3 years. :shock:

 

[coolhand]

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good read on market sentiment.

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/

 

[teknobucks]

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FOMC

guess 1/4 point hike....no hike at allwould scare the hell outta the markets and any more than .25 would kill the goose! jmho

C fund seems to look better every day.....real tempted to go 60 c and 40 i and forgetchasing any short term pops or poops!

fwiw: my paycheck distribution is exactly that.

tekno

 

[teknobucks]

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off topic:

anyone sick of winter yet??

http://selfdestruct.net/misc/geneve.jpg

 

[Spaf]

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Maybe a better market?

In checking around, the negative money flow indicators have been decreasing, currently at -0.9. Pricing is in the green. Market timing is cautious. And the bull-bear indicator favors the bulls. At close of business the situation was Up-Up with all indicies recording gains. Several companies had better-than-expected earnings. At Barchart the sentiment was indicating a lot of buys for the S&P:

http://www.barchart.com

Buyers were at 20%, Sellers at 14%, and Holders at 65% according to some reports. The PPO moving average was intersecting the price line, suggesting a possibility to go long. A possibility, because the market has not established a confirmed primary movement. It might appear to be bullish now, but it hasen't established the fact. The January correction, has a lot to heal, and this market is very sensitive. So caution and monitoring seem to be in order, to safeguard the TSP funds.

Good news could change at any time. However, if indicators are favorable I'll side with optimism and increase allocations to G30%, F0%, C20%, S30% and I20%. But, I'll play it close to the opening news, reserving the right to cancel or change before 12:00 ET.

Rgds, and be careful! Spaf

 

[Rolo]

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MarketTimer wrote:

Mike wrote:

Repeat after me: 2005 is not 2000. 2005 is not 2000. 2005 is not 2000.

Yeah, I thought most of us agreed that it was more like 1935. Can anyone post a link to an overlay of that?



MarketTimer wrote:

My friend...remember December 2000 when everyone was screaming bullish???

I don't think anyone is screaming anything...well, 'cept maybe that the buck is bust. A whole lotta prudence seems to be the mood.

MarketTimer wrote:

WHen the high flyers, Ebay, Tzoo, cme are getting clipped then the others will follow....just like January 2000.

Research domed house top....has happened 19xs and now we are at number 20...average DOW loss 29.9% loss.

2004 was not even the orgy of stock-buying of 1999 and we are hardly at a climax top. Contrarily, 2004 was quite the refractory period and we're waiting for the blue pill to kick in.

Hey, who votes that MarketTimer's nick should be changed to ChickenLittle?

 

[Guest]

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I agree that 2005 is not 2000. I also agree that MT could use more humility in dealing with people. However, that said,IDO agree with many of the points that he has raised. Namely, IMHO, until and unless the huge federal deficits are brought under control, we're looking at a scary scenario on the horizon.

 

[vectorman]

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saraho wrote:

Feb 1st has not tended to be a strong day for the S&P.

The strongest day in February has usually been Feb 10. It's been up 72% of the time in the past 20 years. Feb 3 and 15 have also been strong. (67%)

I thought this was suppose to be the year of the S&P. The S fund is making a pretty good come-back.Is this because it was over sold, or did ithad more to lose during the sell-offbecause it was over bought in Dec?The S fund has broken through its 50 day MA, but I don't see too many members willing to risk a bigger share in the S fund. Kind of reminds me of the fear that came up awhile back about the I fund. Those who were heavy in C on the way down, then rebalanced to a heavier S are picking up alittle more cash. Good luck and as Spaf would say " Be careful":^

 

[Guest]

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vectorman wrote:

I thought this was suppose to be the year of the S&P. The S fund is making a pretty good come-back.Is this because it was over sold, or did ithad more to lose during the sell-offbecause it was over bought in Dec?The S fund has broken through its 50 day MA, but I don't see too many members willing to risk a bigger share in the S fund. Kind of reminds me of the fear that came up awhile back about the I fund. Those who were heavy in C on the way down, then rebalanced to a heavier S are picking up alittle more cash. Good luck and as Spaf would say " Be careful":^

Vectorman,

Patience! Remember that January is usually the best month for the S fund. This year, the S fund wasdown 3.4% in January. (yes, its probably a bounce back from being oversold)

And yes, I agree with Tom. This year, we should begin to see the C fund outperform the S fund. But last time I looked,it is still only Feb 2. It will bea marathon, not a sprint. I think we should start to see greater strength in the C (compared to the S)more in the spring.

I notice that the dollar has made another move today, pulling down the I fund.

 

[Rolo]

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vectorman wrote:

but I don't see too many members willing to risk a bigger share in the S fund.

eeeeeeeeeeeEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSsssssssssss!!!!

I keep screamin' that but nobody listens.. <walks away, kicking a tin can>

 

[vectorman]

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saraho wrote:

Vectorman,

Patience! Remember that January is usually the best month for the S fund. This year, the S fund wasdown 3.4% in January. (yes, its probably a bounce back from being oversold)..... But last time I looked,it is still only Feb 2. It will bea marathon, not a sprint. I think we should start to see greater strength in the C (compared to the S)more in the spring.

I notice that the dollar has made another move today, pulling down the I fund.

Thanks for the comment Saraho. I have lots of patience. Mystatement didn't come out the way I intended.What I was getting at is, many of the talking heads were predicting that money would come right out of small caps and be put into the S&P in Jan. Of course it didn't happen quite that way. I just thoughtif they were right, then we would seemore of a ralley in the S&P, but its been slower to gain compared with the S fund. Speaking of patience; Rolo has much more patience than me. He has stayed the course and not flinched. I heard your screaming Rolo. But it also helps to have an all knowing Magic 8 ball.:^

 

[teknobucks]

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so far feb much better than jan......LOL$$$$$$$

staying with sold down position of17% in C, S, and I....balance G.

will add more on a pullback reflex from FOMC action or just hold position if she keeps climbing.

NO CLUE HERE ON DIRECTION....semis softened today, oil is friendly, and vix still shows uptrend:%

tekno

 

[teknobucks]

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http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID641835



http://news.goldseek.com/RichardDaughty/1107363551.php



???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????:shock:

 

[teknobucks]

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LOL!!

Pinky Scheetz sees his shadow!

HENDERSON, Nev., February 2, 2005 –
The world's most famous scammy stock forecaster saw his shadow Wednesday on Trader’s Desk, suggesting another year of stock scams.

The slimy critter delivered the prediction after he was pulled from his trading desk at a boiler room brokerage before the bell by a stock promoter, and his prediction was greeted by cheers from the thousands in attendance.
"He's only the messenger!" one of the members of the Scam Stock Traders Association — the volunteer group in charge of Pinky and the town's annual Stock Scam Day festivities — reminded the crowd braving the unseasonably cool weather.
In the years since the Henderson Stock Brokers Association first carried word of the broker failing to see its shadow in 1886, this town has been dubbed the "Stock Scam Capital of the World."

The tradition stems from the days predating the 1929 stock market crash, and the belief that if an unethical broker sees his shadow, stock scams will last another year. If there's no shadow, that means the sights of the SEC have been on him and the over-the-counter market trading will be regulated and enforced.

That was definitely not the forecast from a Hauppauge, New York broker. Sammy “the Scammy” Stock, did see his shadow when he stepped outside as a light rain fell Wednesday morning. “Scammy” made his appearance with stock promoters and their handlers at Pump & Dump, LLC and hope it will produce a record revenue year.

In Henderson, an energetic crowd of about 20,000 people was already assembled by 3:30 a.m. Most were bundled against the cold, but at least one young Canadian woman going by the name of Nekkid Short, braved the weather in a bikini top made of delisted stock certificates.

Shelly Stock and her 9-year-old daughter, Unregistered, had on layer upon layer as they huddled over coffee and hot chocolate. Unregistered was taking the day off from school to see Pinky, her mother said. They live in nearby Las Vegas.
"We considered this an educational purpose," said Shelly, who told her daughter about the history of Stock Scam Day and plans to have Unregistered do a school project on the event. Unregistered said she would like to grow up to be an OTC market maker.

"And anything that brings 20,000 or 30,000 people on some years we have to do it at least once," Shelly said.

Day trader Moe Money said the annual frenzy, and just how famous Pinky is, still amazes him.

"I just placed a market order in early trading and the guy said to me, 'Is your account ready to go crazy?'" he said.

Rip Off, 50, and his client #### Mi, 21, came from Boca Raton, Fla., although they tied the trip in with a visit to the local casinos and a wild weekend at an undisclosed motel.
"It was a good excuse to get to know her better," said Off, who was toting a bag from a local adult toy store.

According to the Henderson club, Pinky saw his shadow for the 95th time. He hasn't seen his shadow since before 1929.

 

[Guest]

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Did we lose about 8hrs of postings from 12:20 pm to 8:42 pm? Hmmmmm

 

[Spaf]

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tsptorture wrote:

Did we lose about 8hrs of postings from 12:20 pm to 8:42 pm? Hmmmmm

Hmm... Don't know?

Rgds :? Spaf

 

[Spaf]

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Closing market Wednesday Feburary 2nd

Pricing held in the green, along with timing, and the bullish indices all closed in the up. Buyers represented 22%, Sellers 14%, and Holders 64%. Things seemed ok for going long, but we need to be cautious to a sensitive market that has not confirmed a primary direction. Pricing is now above th moving average, and the money flow is increasing close to the 0.0 level.

Currently 30G, 20C, 30S, and 20I.

Attached is a current chart of the S&P for 6 mo with a 20 & 50 day MA and MACD.

Rgds, and be careful! Spaf

 

[Guest]

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This is an extremely bearish chart. Let me get technical here when the black line goes below the red line sharply...like it just did...that is a signal to sell...not go long as you suggest Mr Spaf.

Be careful out there.

MT

Here is a chart of the S&P 500 as you can see that pattern of black line below red...market goes down the reverse and the reverse happens....this is a pattern to put on the shorts and take off the longs

 

[Spaf]

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MarketTimer wrote:

This is an extremely bearish chart. Let me get technical here when the black line goes below the red line sharply...like it just did...that is a signal to sell...not go long as you suggest Mr Spaf.

Be careful out there.

MT

I agree, be careful! The primary direction of the market is not confirmed! The signals are to buy!See Barchart.com What can I say, having no crystal ball! I don't make suggestions (forecast) I only reporting the current conditions and what I'm doing!

Please, MT, I respect your opinion. And enjoy your response!

Rgds, and becareful! Spaf

 

[Mike]

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I don't see a black line on that chart. I see a red and a green, but no black... :h

We already know you think the chart is bearish - you've been saying that every time you show up here. With the consistent talking points you give, you should put in for a job as the DNC chief.