11/28/25
Wednesday was a fourth day of gains for the stock market and the TSP stock funds with three of those days coming this holiday week. Friday's half day of trading following Thanksgiving has a moderately bearish bias, especially when the Wednesday before the holiday is positive. Momentum is back on the bulls' side and the end of year rally looks promising, but we now have some short-term overbought conditions.
Thanks for stopping by. I know many people are taking time off and may be enjoying a long holiday weekend, so I'll may this quick.
Following up on the historic data of Thanksgiving week, and going back to 1988 (37 years - the year the C-fund was created):
The S&P 500 has been up 21 times and down 16 times on the Friday after Thanksgiving and the average return is 0.08%. Good, not great.
When the S&P 500 was up on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving Day, the Friday after Thanksgiving Day was positive just 11 out of 25 times. Not good.
Only seven times in those 37 years was the S&P 500 positive on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday of Thanksgiving week, with 2016 being the last time that happened. That year the S&P 500 pulled back the next week, but it was followed by a strong rally in the first two weeks of December.
More recently:
The 2.27% loss on Friday in 2021 was the worst Friday after Thanksgiving. In 2009 it was down 1.72%, but there were no other losses greater than 0.66% on the Friday after Thanksgiving going back to 1988.
Historically the first half of December is a lot less bullish than the second half, and the "Santa Claus Rally" doesn't technically start until the 21st of December.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) has made great progress this week as the average pushed above some key levels of resistance. It has come a long way in recent days and could be under some short-term overbought pressure, so we'll see if the bears want to step in front of this new bullish momentum. This rally retraced some breakdown candlesticks, as well as filled some open gaps, but it looks like 6700 - 6760 area may be must hold levels to keep the end of year rally going.
I mentioned this last week but here is that S&P 500 weekly chart again after what looks like yet another successful test of the 20-week moving average. Since moving above it in late 2023, this average has only failed to hold once on this chart, and that was in the early stages of the tariff tantrum breakdown earlier this year. Right now it is holding and trying to bounce off of that average once again.
Will the fourth time be the charm? After a pullback at a triple top, the Dow Transportation Index finally closed above the recent highs on the fourth attempt. It's not the high for the year, but it's a good indication that this market leader is ready to go to the next level.
This long term chart of the Transports shows a promising bull flag (blue), which failed in 2024 and retested the top of the flag earlier this year, but it is testing the breakout line again right now. It's such a big bull flag making the technical potential dramatically higher.
Today (Friday November 28), the major U.S. stock markets will close early at 1 pm ET. The TSP deadline remains 12 noon ET.
The DWCPF Index (S-Fund) has been hot and led the TSP fund last week It may have run into a little resistance on Wednesday, and the bulls will need to see that 2500 area get taken out again. The bears may try to pull this back to the 50-day EMA where the bulls will be challenged again.
ACWX (I-fund) is also near some potential resistance after making its way back up to the bottom of the channel it fell through earlier in the month. It is back above the key 50-day moving average.
BND (bonds / F-fund) is retesting the previous highs and may have a set up for a double top pullback. That's not the worst thing that could happen in the short-term, and any decline may be minor.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Wednesday was a fourth day of gains for the stock market and the TSP stock funds with three of those days coming this holiday week. Friday's half day of trading following Thanksgiving has a moderately bearish bias, especially when the Wednesday before the holiday is positive. Momentum is back on the bulls' side and the end of year rally looks promising, but we now have some short-term overbought conditions.
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Thanks for stopping by. I know many people are taking time off and may be enjoying a long holiday weekend, so I'll may this quick.
Following up on the historic data of Thanksgiving week, and going back to 1988 (37 years - the year the C-fund was created):
The S&P 500 has been up 21 times and down 16 times on the Friday after Thanksgiving and the average return is 0.08%. Good, not great.
When the S&P 500 was up on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving Day, the Friday after Thanksgiving Day was positive just 11 out of 25 times. Not good.
Only seven times in those 37 years was the S&P 500 positive on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday of Thanksgiving week, with 2016 being the last time that happened. That year the S&P 500 pulled back the next week, but it was followed by a strong rally in the first two weeks of December.
More recently:
The 2.27% loss on Friday in 2021 was the worst Friday after Thanksgiving. In 2009 it was down 1.72%, but there were no other losses greater than 0.66% on the Friday after Thanksgiving going back to 1988.
Historically the first half of December is a lot less bullish than the second half, and the "Santa Claus Rally" doesn't technically start until the 21st of December.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) has made great progress this week as the average pushed above some key levels of resistance. It has come a long way in recent days and could be under some short-term overbought pressure, so we'll see if the bears want to step in front of this new bullish momentum. This rally retraced some breakdown candlesticks, as well as filled some open gaps, but it looks like 6700 - 6760 area may be must hold levels to keep the end of year rally going.
I mentioned this last week but here is that S&P 500 weekly chart again after what looks like yet another successful test of the 20-week moving average. Since moving above it in late 2023, this average has only failed to hold once on this chart, and that was in the early stages of the tariff tantrum breakdown earlier this year. Right now it is holding and trying to bounce off of that average once again.
Will the fourth time be the charm? After a pullback at a triple top, the Dow Transportation Index finally closed above the recent highs on the fourth attempt. It's not the high for the year, but it's a good indication that this market leader is ready to go to the next level.
This long term chart of the Transports shows a promising bull flag (blue), which failed in 2024 and retested the top of the flag earlier this year, but it is testing the breakout line again right now. It's such a big bull flag making the technical potential dramatically higher.
Today (Friday November 28), the major U.S. stock markets will close early at 1 pm ET. The TSP deadline remains 12 noon ET.
The DWCPF Index (S-Fund) has been hot and led the TSP fund last week It may have run into a little resistance on Wednesday, and the bulls will need to see that 2500 area get taken out again. The bears may try to pull this back to the 50-day EMA where the bulls will be challenged again.
ACWX (I-fund) is also near some potential resistance after making its way back up to the bottom of the channel it fell through earlier in the month. It is back above the key 50-day moving average.
BND (bonds / F-fund) is retesting the previous highs and may have a set up for a double top pullback. That's not the worst thing that could happen in the short-term, and any decline may be minor.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
