Market Talk / May 7 - 13

[Wizard]

Covered shorts.

Went 25% long DIA/SPX/NDX/HHH. Will add 25% on each down spike. :worried:

Biggy tomorrow - trade balance. Do or die time for USD time.

 

[ayla]

I down -.318% - about 6 or 7 cents. I'm hoping there will be a bounce upward tomorrow.
http://www.msci.com/equity/index2.html

 

[Wizard]

Went 25% long DIA/SPX/NDX/HHH. Will add 25% on each down spike. :worried:

Getting my head handed to me. Out of DIA/SPX/NDX still holding to HHH.

Looks like the Matrix is loosing their grip. Constant selling is normally meet with repos. :blink: Should of just went to bed.

 

[The_Technician]

Getting my head handed to me. Out of DIA/SPX/NDX still holding to HHH.

Looks like the Matrix is loosing their grip. Constant selling is normally meet with repos. :blink: Should of just went to bed.

Look like the strength is to the downside......crystal ball says get out and protect assets....of course this is the new ball.....and its just now starting to go to work......its says in a couple of weeks it may be pausible to reattain assets....

You know how these things work....but given the long run we had, I personally expect a major downdraft to happen when it does....today looks like it has its possiblilties.....with most things being lined up.....maybe stargazing could be considered.....any stargazers out there......

 

[Wizard]

I hear what you are cooking, Tech. The Fed is firing repos to stop the waterfall and they are not working-the repo dough is just washing downstream. I got greedy and tried to catch a short squeeze. I am such a pig. :embarrest:

If the trade balance report tomorrow is really horrible it could get real ugly. If it is "good" then the shorts will squirm. It is all, who will blink first now.

Only good thing was I do not wait around to really get punished. That is why I hate the TSP deadline and rules. I just can not ride the rollercoaster waiting for the transaction to go through.

 

[Cortez]

NASDAQ is finally providing leadership to the markets. Downside leadership that is with over 2% loss on the day. BLEW through the 50DMA area. IWM and SPX are looking to close around their 50DMA. Dow is merely pulling back to its 13EMA. Will wait for a new trading range to develop and enter into TSP stock funds.

 

[Wizard]

Open to close bloodbath with no bounce at all. Have not seen that in a long time.

Wish I had a time machine.

 

[learning]

Looks like the dollar is not holding up. Noon data shows heading downward in a steep slope, at least on this chart at:

http://quotes.ino.com:801/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

Means the I fund will likely be higher today, just a guess. Darn! wish it would hold off just a little since I'm buying back into the I-Fund at c.o.b. today.

Looks like you got your wish. EAFE was done over 1%. The dollar will not have lost that much today. I am starting to think the time for a pull out is at hand. Wait a little while and go back ALL in after it has gone down some. With the dollar going down I may just ride it out and take my lumps. This way when it starts up again I will be there. Just put more in when it looks like it is going back up.

 

[ayla]

I am starting to think the time for a pull out is at hand. Wait a little while and go back ALL in after it has gone down some. With the dollar going down I may just ride it out and take my lumps. This way when it starts up again I will be there. Just put more in when it looks like it is going back up.

I'm not sure I understand, seems you are saying that it is "time for a pull out" but then you mention that you "may just ride it out". I don't see fault with either strategy. Just pick one and it is better if you pick it pro-actively rather than by default IMO..

I can't seem to be able to "pull out" or stay out of the "casino". Guess I will have to learn like some of the others around here who are very cautious. Hopefully my lesson won't be too expensive.

 

[SkyPilot]

Jumping in and out of the I fund trying to catch minor dips will likely cost you gains. The trend is up, with the dollar trending down and the EAFE likely to move higher. It is easy to get to cute at this point, as we are not able to trade at the close. The time lag will trounce on you, as it will be too easy to get stuck out when you should be in, and visa versa.

It you believe that the I fund is the strongest of the options going forward, then don't second guess it. Allocate as much as your risk tolerance will stand, and let the market work, until you believe that other allocations will provide more gains. If you believe it is "time for a pullback", on what basis do you reckon?

Just because the I fund has produced a very strong run-up over the last few weeks does not in itself dictate or predict that a correction is on the horizon. By that logic, the current returns should not be possible when one considers the last two - three years.

If you treat this as a casino, you can expect the results that gambling usually delivers.

Best of luck .

 

[Wizard]

None of TSP funds had a gain today.

That is the bad part, being stuck on the long side when you are going into a bear market. :embarrest:

Not this Wizard. :nuts:

 

[James48843]

Dollar gains back a little against the Yen, and the Euro in opening trades, and also the Nikkei and the FTSE are in the red this morning at the open.

"I" fund going to take a hit today if things keep up.

I bailed out, and now am 95% in "G" as of CoB today. I think I caught one day after the peak. This may be a short couple of days of "I" taking a breather while the markets adjust to this level.

Good. It's about time. My guess: Perhaps a 2%- 3% pullback in "I", before it resumes it's upward trend. We'll see.

I think we're in for a big downside for a couple of days. That hit yesterday and today are just the beginning of a pullback. I said yesterday I thought it would be down 2 or 3 percent. Today it looks more like a solid 5-8% pullback is about to ripple through, as the herd tries to pull back. Let's see what Japan does tonight on the open. It should get a good shakeout shortly as a result of London and New York today.

Sitting pretty in "G" right now with 95% of my assets, waiting for a nice ride down and a new buying opportunity in a week or so. That's what I am thinking, anyway.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
May 11, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak..............................Socks follow momentum downhill.
Other Yak................................Lube continues climb. Now over 73
Jester Yak...............................Notta blip!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1305.92, dn -16.93
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.102, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+5.340, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........92.02, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 48.20 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................73.32, up +1.19
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Red

Tin Box:
Position.....................................0% Socks
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1312 [broken]. Trail: 1299.

 

[Dave M]

Right on, Sky. D

 

[Wizard]

China stock market up over 3%.

The rest of Asian getting hit with the ugly stick - x Hong Kong - which is part of China anyway.

Does that mean something? :worried:

 

[Wizard]

China up 4% now. :worried:

Now Hong Kong is joining the pain to the downside.

 

[The_Technician]

I think the trade report will now become a bother to the market seeing that the dollar value is losing buying power.....means that the overseas profits will start dropping......global economy will suffer......as I mentioned the other day, the Chinese Yuan will drop value also which will cool off the Chinese economy a bit.....the Chinese economy is a good example of global economy equilibrium upset.....now it will all have to cool off a bit.....:worried:

 

[learning]

Yea. I was trying to figure out what I should do. A little torn between two ideas. One was get out let it fall and get back in after a fall. If I got out then I would go back all in after the I fund went down, (if it went down). The other idea and I will do it, stay in the I fund and after I think it hits bottom I will go all in. I suspect the dollar will go down some more. Other countries will raise their rates. So I will hold, if it does not go down I have some in. If it goes down I can put more in. Thanks for the help.

 

[The_Technician]

Economic repair

the best way to end this economic unrest is to preempt the situation with a drop in the cost of commodities.....

this would reduce corporate costs which will reduce consumer costs which would also reduce the interest rate pressure to control the inflationary trend and in general reduce the overall inflationary trend of the economy..........

this has happen in the past by loss of economic prowess which reduces consumption of commodities which characteristically involves a long timelag.............

seeing that this won't happen in a quick timely manner, we will continue into further unrest......but it should be a target worldwide to keep the global economy moving forward......starting with oil.......

 

[The_Technician]

market trends

If the market starts sliding, which in my opinion it should due to its recent extravagant elevation, recent history (see Sep 2000) shows that the market will steadily drop anywhere from .25-1.0% daily in general for at least a month...:blink:

Something to think about......