Market Talk June 6-10

[Birchtree]

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DMA,

I did not say I made money for 3 days in the C fund. I said I made money the last 3 days in my outside account which happens to be large and well diversified. That was the bottom line - my TSP account has been treading water the last 3 days - waiting for the breakout that is coming. The C fund is rather restrictive - compared to other investing avenues. Any more polite questions?

 

[Birchtree]

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Gallo1,

Recommend you hold your position - the weak hands have recently sold out their positions - relieving some of the downward pressure. I don't anticipate any down drafts as long as we can hold the neck line support at Dow 10,425. Take a look at the graph Tom has posted for sp500 1995, then look at 1996 and 1997. Good times are on the way and many people will miss the boat - so sorry - but ya'll can keep the penny. I need silver, not copper. DMA, I did not say you were Al Gore or that you even look like him. What I tried to imply was that you think like him - that perspective for a lot of Demos is a compliment - but I'm not a Demo - so it was not a compliment.









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[Spaf]

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GALLO1 wrote:

I’m currently C-50, S-30, & I-20. I’m not sure :?whether to follow the herd or remain bullish. I’m thinking going G-80 & I-20 by noon today, which is 6:00 a.m. your time. Any members that may have constructive thoughts and opinions as to what Mr. Greenspan might say today and how it may affect the market are more than welcomed.

Gallo1
Here is the story: We are in a primary movement of bullish. We are also in a channel with the trend being upward. The channel represents about 24 points, thus the supportive line is about 1180, which is a trailing stop for me.

The Market fundamentals are mixed. Technical analysis indicators indicate declining conditions. The MACD is of concern, otherwise at the crossroads of bullish/bearish.

In uncertain times, like now. Members will retreat to the secure F and G funds for capital preservation. Some entirely, some partially. Some not at all because they see things differently. Thats the heart of this board; to have the information, to make your own decision, and not beled into unknown risks!

OK? Be careful!Rgds. Spaf

 

[tsptalk]

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GALLO1 wrote:

I’m not sure :?whether to follow the herd or remain bullish.

Hi Gallo -
The TSP Talk strategy is going against the herd. That is why many of us are in hiding at the moment. The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey shows 49% of those polled being bullish, and 19% bearish. That's the highest ratio since December. Remaining bullish now is being part of the herd.

Birchtree is also correct in that the next few years are shaping up to be strong. If someone is a buy and hold investor I would say get invested and check back in 2008. Since most of us here are not buy and holders, we are more worried about the next 3 weeks and 3 months, rather than the next 3 years.

Great site , I wish I'd have had this forum16 years ago.

Thanks. And thanks for joining us!

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Yak: Remarks: Addendum: Some members know that I have accounts with an online discount broker. Other members do also! TSP doesn't charge for interfund transfers, but the brokers do, and there is a profit/loss in the ask/bid transaction. However, the the ability to conduct instant transactions, this I have found,greatly off-sets the TSP interfund transfer of 4-hours to two days. In addition, the ETFs available with brokers number in the hundreds, with barcharts.com as a screening tool. TSP only has 5 funds.

The remarks of this post is to say that there are other options available. No less, no more. And, each to their own decision!

Rgds, and be careful! Spaf

 

[Mike]

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I finally got off my butt and opened a brokerage account with Scottrade (to supplement my Roth).

I'll start playing around with the ETF's in a month or so. :^

 

[Spaf]

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Mike wrote:

I finally got off my butt and opened a brokerage account with Scottrade (to supplement my Roth).

I'll start playing around with the ETF's in a month or so. :^

Use www.barcharts,comfor analysis, even though they are slightly behind the curve. Check out www.marketwatch.com/support/etf trader.disclamer.asp.

Notice the diferences between index, growth, and value funds i.e., Small caps in IJR, IJT, and IJJ for this group vs Mid cap funds in similar groups. Wierd??

Have fun Mike! It's a hoot! But be careful! Rgds! Spaf

 

[Guest]

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Birchtree wrote:

DMA,

I did not say I made money for 3 days in the C fund. I said I made money the last 3 days in my outside account which happens to be large and well diversified. That was the bottom line - my TSP account has been treading water the last 3 days - waiting for the breakout that is coming. The C fund is rather restrictive - compared to other investing avenues. Any more polite questions?

Birchtree wrote:
DMA,

Actually I can't complain - made money all 3 days so far- granted no great shakes yet, but this turtle will just keep plugging along, I am however keeping an eye lookout to make sure the earth doesn't open up and digest me.

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This is a TSP investment board.

When you say you are up we are talking about TSP. You implied it was TSP, you got called out on it and are tapping a great dance.

You do not even know how much I am up this year on my outside stuff.

I am going to let it drop and I will not longer interact with you.

Good luck.

 

[Guest]

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Spaf wrote:

Mike wrote:

I finally got off my butt and opened a brokerage account with Scottrade (to supplement my Roth).

I'll start playing around with the ETF's in a month or so. :^

Use http://www.barcharts,comfor analysis, even though they are slightly behind the curve. Check out http://www.marketwatch.com/support/etf trader.disclamer.asp.

Notice the diferences between index, growth, and value funds i.e., Small caps in IJR, IJT, and IJJ for this group vs Mid cap funds in similar groups. Wierd??

Have fun Mike! It's a hoot! But be careful! Rgds! Spaf

Great info Spaf!:^

 

[Mike]

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Spaf wrote:

Mike wrote:

I finally got off my butt and opened a brokerage account with Scottrade (to supplement my Roth).

I'll start playing around with the ETF's in a month or so. :^

Use http://www.barcharts,comfor analysis, even though they are slightly behind the curve. Check out http://www.marketwatch.com/support/etf trader.disclamer.asp.

Notice the diferences between index, growth, and value funds i.e., Small caps in IJR, IJT, and IJJ for this group vs Mid cap funds in similar groups. Wierd??

Have fun Mike! It's a hoot! But be careful! Rgds! Spaf

Careful is my middle name.

Actually, with the ETF's, this is going to be the speculative part of my investment strategy. My Roth and TSP are fairly cautious investments - plus I have a fair chunk in a moneymarket right now, as well.

Brokerage, on the other hand is my area to "have fun" and attack. :^

 

[Guest]

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Was has worked for me is purchase OIH when oil goes below 50 and sell when oil is over 54.

Good luck. Mike

 

[Mike]

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Without having researched ETF's (yet), I'll take a wild guess and say that OIH is an energy / oil sector play (I've had that same idea in my brain for months but insufficient funds to try it out *sigh*).

I definitely want to make use of shorting, though. Can't do it in TSP (likely a product of the risk-averse bureaucracy that runs the program - perhaps also to keep management costs low and avoid rampant speculation in a retirement fund), which forces one to just play one side of the market or else take minimal gains when it's dropping... as opposed to being able to gain substantially when it makes a significant movement in either direction.

I have a few days off coming after I'm off this morning. That means time for some light ETF reading.

 

[Guest]

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Good luck Mike.

PM me if you would want any help in any way.


The key is to hedge yourself anyway which to Sunday and then run when you have the ball. Right now the short ball is in play.

Funny and easier to play the short side.

 

[Mike]

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I'll probably PM both you and Spaf in a few weeks once the money isin place and I'm ready to start making moves. At $7 per trade though, I'll probably be making only one play (with the entire account balance) at a time, just for the sake of efficiency - otherwise the transaction fee (though relatively small) would consume unacceptable chunks of whatever I gain.

Once I have a decent balance (~$10k or more), I'll split the account in half and use half to speculate and half to make longer-term plays (but with greater liquidity than what I have in mutual funds).

 

[mlk_man]

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DMA wrote:

This is a TSP investment board.

When you say you are up we are talking about TSP. You implied it was TSP, you got called out on it and are tapping a great dance.

You guys remember when I mentioned this to MT.......................

We are not inverted...................:^

 

[Guest]

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Mike wrote:

I'll probably PM both you and Spaf in a few weeks once the money isin place and I'm ready to start making moves. At $7 per trade though, I'll probably be making only one play (with the entire account balance) at a time, just for the sake of efficiency - otherwise the transaction fee (though relatively small) would consume unacceptable chunks of whatever I gain.

Once I have a decent balance (~$10k or more), I'll split the account in half and use half to speculate and half to make longer-term plays (but with greater liquidity than what I have in mutual funds).

Great.

Looking forward to it.

When you PM I have a better place you can trade that cost 12.95 a month for UNLIMTED trades.

I trade as much as 15,000 times a month for 12.95.:^

They must love me there.

 

[cowboy]

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HEY!!! Look at EFV on Yahoo it was showing big time down of .667% last I looked. Whats with that. If so I fund looks to have hit the dumper!!!!

 

[Spaf]

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cowboy wrote:

HEY!!! Look at EFV on Yahoo it was showing big time down of .667% last I looked. Whats with that. If so I fund looks to have hit the dumper!!!!

Let me get through with this solitaire hand and I'll check yahoo! EFV ya say!

 

[TEUFEL HUNDEN]

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Same with MSN money and big charts. I wonder if this is a great buying op.

 

[cowboy]

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TEUFEL HUNDEN wrote:

Same with MSN money and big charts. I wonder if this is a great buying op.

It seems to be tracking but it is way off the charts. Wow! 66.83% change doesn't seem right but this could be very significant any clarification or information to this would be appreciated.