Market Talk June 6-10

[Guest]

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What is up with oil today?

Wow.

About renting.

You have to factor in property, school, insurance, etc, etc into the mix. That is a huge tax.

Keep renting you will be able to purchase some massive bargains. Right now you are much better off.

Be patient. Folks will be handing you their keys here soon.

 

[Guest]

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What is up with the volume?

Nasdaq 1.1M share with an hour to go. Since they count buy and sale that is only 550K.

 

[Birchtree]

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Tekno,

Ferdinand here again - a few things to say before I go listen to Larry Kudlow.

This morning, real early some guy approached riding a white stallion - I thought initially it was the Lone Ranger coming to shoot down the C fund - but he wasn't wearing any mask. It apparently was Paul Revere because he was yelling out for all good citizens to stay in the shelter (STAY IN THE SHELTER) it is much too dangerous to leave yet. Apparently the third time is the charm. Should the doors be locked to be sure they are protected from the bullish sentiment that is so rampant . How would Al Gore handle a similar situation. Perhaps ask for a new tax increase.

Dennis - permabull #2. Oh, by the way Arlene is pushing up oil today - strong across the board - on my humble way toward redemption.

 

[Dogdaddy]

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Dennis:

Know you obviously don't like Al Gore, but in his defense, his REGO Plan (Reorganization of Government) during the 2nd Clinton Administration, really streamlined my Wife's Agency and made a lot of noticeable improvements and cost reductions. The Wife is very proud, as well, of a Certificate of Appreciation and cash award Mr. Gore awarded her for leading a Team that re-wrote many of the Federal Energy Leasing Regulations in "plain-speak", rather than "legaleze"., in many cases reducing the verbage by as much as 80%. I don't particulary like the guy personally either , but will give him credit when credit is due.

Enough said..Nick

 

[Dogdaddy]

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DMA:

Nice little post-Greenie rally today that held til the close....You've been pretty accurate on your market calls lately...What do you think will happen tomorrow - a sell-off or continuation of the little up trend ?? The continuing conflict between you and Birch is very informative and educational, yet somewhat controversial, it seems !

Regards/Nick

 

[The_Technician]

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Tech bubble was a direct result of liberal leadership of the country:shock:......it wasn't the only area where CEO's consistently "pumped up" earnings and such.....it was part of the fleecing of America that is continuing even to this day in different forms......Like NAFTA, CAFTA, and so on....my observation anyway....and many stockholders will agree.....

Looks like my 1190's rest is here.....we didn't get the bloodbath yet....lets see ifmynext weeks decline that I predicted this week comes on strong.....still looking for that 60 point drop....

:dude:

 

[Guest]

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Dogdaddy wrote:

DMA:

Nice little post-Greenie rally today that held til the close....You've been pretty accurate on your market calls lately...What do you think will happen tomorrow - a sell-off or continuation of the little up trend ?? The continuing conflict between you and Birch is very informative and educational, yet somewhat controversial, it seems !

Regards/Nick

Nick - I am flat. I covered when my gain was evaporating.

I am confused why the Asians and Euros sold off yesterday.

The 10 year auction was horrible today:

Demand was mixed for the Treasury's 10-year note reopening. The high yield on the $8 billion auction was 3.990%, a full basis point above the when-issued yield at the bidding deadline. Demand from non-dealers was weak, as indirect bidders accounted for only 10.9% of accepted competitive bids.

I believe today was a short squeeze due to Mr Greenspans comments on the solid economy .

The way the market reacted I would have to say the trade balance report is going to be a good one. That comes out tomorrow at 0830. If it was a bad one the 1pm downturn would of built momemuntum into the close. Because NO ONE knows the results of economic reports until they are announced official .

Intel SURPRISED guides higher at the close. That will fool the market for a day or three.

Interesting read: http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=JVET1GM13YS30CRBAEOCFEY?type=businessNews&storyID=8735099

Tomorrow should be interesting.

I have to admit I am confused right now. But have to say I am happy I got out of I fund yesterday and am G fund today. Because tomorrow is anyones guess.

Got a feeling those in F fund however we will see the 10 year over 4 tomorrow.

Hope ya have a great day!

From the "this time is different" inverted yield curve is ok. And the market shakes it's head and says yes it is!!! Anyone with any economic background was blowing coffee out their nose when greenspan said that.

 

[Birchtree]

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Dogdaddy,

The action like the WWE is with DMA and the Mlk-man. I'm actually trying to show some class. I even invited DMA to come stand in my manure pile with me. Manure, you know makes things grow - like tomatoes etc, it will also help retain heat if the pile is large enough. I did get chastized because I talk about my outside account. But people are learning that TSP accounts (deferred copm plans) are not the end all for an investment future, but for some may be a good training ground. The funds are relatively safe from volatility - and as such may lack some opportunity.

Next year when the caps are released balances will build faster in the future. $15,000 times 30 = $450,000. It's best to have some experience before tossing that kind of money around. Learn how to shoot accurately. I'm holding long term with dollar cost averaging because I'm already deep in the manure pile and managing my wifes FRS account - and she has gotten used to the smell of manure. I need to take some more positions in secular energy play for the future - and this program is limited in that regard - therefore my program is only supplemental - like other participants. This is an investment board related to the world of investments - and a lot of what happens in the world will still impact TSP funds. Please excuse my lecture. My comments are primarily for others interested in how the real world works, to include DMA. He said he gave up 17K, he should read my posts from 3/7 to see how a contrarian handles his pain- and takes advantage of crises.

 

[Guest]

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I guess I should explain this chart.

As goes the transports as goes the economy.

Economic barameter for the future.

 

[Guest]

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Birchtree wrote:

He said he gave up 17K, he should read my posts from 3/7 to see how a contrarian handles his pain- and takes advantage of crises.

These are suppose to be index funds.

I took a 17K hit when the index was up.

I have no problem taken a lose when I guess wrong.

But when I guess right and took the risk to put my money at risk I also would appreciate the profit for the risk.

It is very hard to invest this way. EAFE up .833 and lose .02 per share??? What????

 

[Birchtree]

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DMA,

Thanx for the Transportation index graph - I think most of that selling was done by profit taking hedge funds and was due to panicky conditions that they perceived to be on the horizon - quick draw guys - business is still intact for continued profits and they will start buying again. The decline will reverse shortly back to the upside and surpass the previous peak obtained in early March when it confirmed the Dow along with the Utilities for a Dow Theory confirmation. Up trend cycle long term is bullish and will likely stay that way, because the Fed has paused or is very close to doing so. Buy them rails like I have, buy truck engines, buy truck containers, etc. This positive economy has a very long life ahead to run - think in term of years. Heck, just dollar cost the I fund and you will eventually recover. I think someone named Gladiola has aspirations to be Annie Oakley - shoot"em up.

Dennis

 

[Guest]

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Figure this one out.

EAFE index down 1.164% DOWN 1.164%

and the I fund paid .05.

How can we invest like this?

 

[Guest]

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Birchtree wrote:

DMA,

Thanx for the Transportation index graph - I think most of that selling was done by profit taking hedge funds and was due to panicky conditions that they perceived to be on the horizon - quick draw guys - business is still intact for continued profits and they will start buying again. The decline will reverse shortly back to the upside and surpass the previous peak obtained in early March when it confirmed the Dow along with the Utilities for a Dow Theory confirmation. Up trend cycle long term is bullish and will likely stay that way, because the Fed has paused or is very close to doing so. Buy them rails like I have, buy truck engines, buy truck containers, etc. This positive economy has a very long life ahead to run - think in term of years. Heck, just dollar cost the I fund and you will eventually recover. I think someone named Gladiola has aspirations to be Annie Oakley - shoot"em up.

Dennis

Greenspan said today the fed will continue at measured pace.

I am not sure why the market rallies every time they think the fed is going to stop. That has happend like a dozen times so far and then there is a massive sell off soon after once the market figures out they will not stop soon.

Have you seen what they are doing to intel after hours?

I am there beating it with a stick too.

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date June 9th, Closing


Market News.

News:No Unhorsemanship! No boats sunk! Yak from Horseman Rats was not upsetting.

Elsewhere: Semis delivered goods to market. More hands back to work.


Doodles and Tea Leaves.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closing at 1200.93 up +6.26.
CMF (money flow) at 0.222, dn slightly.
RSI (strength) at 59.2, up, in midrange.
MACD (trend) at 7.38, even, at crossover.

Nymex (Crude oil)
Closing at 54.28 up +1.74

Tea Leaves: Yellow (caution).


Yak.

Remarks: Holding 60/40. Trailing stop at 1180.

Rgds, and be careful! Spaf

 

[Guest]

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Spaf appreciate your daily YAK post.

 

[Mike]

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So far, this week's trading range hasn't changed much from last week's. The S&P's bottom end has held above 1190 and the top continues to be ~1207. This shows "market drift" - nothing really driving it one way or the other. The speculative reactionary jumps / dives related to the Fed's anticipated course of action on the interest rates is pretty funny, though.

I'd say they'll raise rates at least once more - and probably twice more if the payroll reports don't go into negative territory. They gotta have the overnight rate at least within spitting distance of a neutral 4% for the sake of monetary stability if nothing else. :shock:

 

[Guest]

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Hint: The I bond (inflation bond) is paying 4.8%

I would say that is the neutral target. The U.S. gov would not pay more interest if they did not have too.

I guess I should of mentioned that ealier.

The U.S. gov savings bond folks think neutral is 4.8 because that they pay the rate to keep future buying power.

Fed has a LONG way to go. Once the experts figure that out...watch out for stocks.

 

[Mike]

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The overnight lending rate won't hit that target for a long time if the economy continues to slog its way to modest growth (current GDP projections of 3.5% this year).

Unless we start a string of mind-blowing payroll numbers > 200k / month, I see two more hikes (at most) this year. If we continue around the same growth rate next year, we could see another couple. Maybe.

 

[Guest]

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Birth/death rate can make the number anything you want.

4.8 is the true reflection of the inflation rate.

Inflation is not contained.

if the fed stops the USD will be flushed down the toilet.

Fed will wreck the economy before they let the USD break .815.

Believe it or not that is reality now.

 

[Spaf]

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DMA wrote:

Spaf appreciate your daily YAK post.

Thanks DMA!

The woods are big enough for us bulls and bears to have fun! Got to agree with you about that I fund. I ain't getting near that thing.

Twenty years ago I bought a small farm. The folks behind me raised bulls. I found out the hard way about electric fence security devices.

Been working on my internet discount broker account (ETF's). I try to keep them alligned with the TSP funds. The S-fund corresponds to IJR, and it has done better than IJT (growth) or IJJ (value). The C-fund corresponds to IVV, and it has been fairly good. The F-fund as we all know is EFA, however, I prefer a blend of TLT (treasury bonds) and IYR (real estate). IJK is mid caps growth, which gives a little diversification.
I really like my internet discount broker, because I don't have the 4 hour - 2 day transfer time. I needed to get some IJR and shuck IJT. So when the market was down this AM I bought IJR and shucked IJT when the market went up. Something to consider with tax paid funds. It's a heck of alot easier than TSP, there are a lot more funds, but the inherent investment risks are...well just the same....and it's instant fun!

With ETFs and http://www.barcharts.com an internet discount broker becomes everything that TSP lacks!

Drove home this evening. More grass to cut! Heck, I'm going fishing!

But I gotta recharge my batteries first!

Rgds Spaf