Market Talk June 6-10

[Guest]

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Start of another week.

Hope we all have a good week.

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Sunday Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves, & Yak Date: June 6, 2005


Market News.

-> http://www.briefing.com/Silver/InBrief/PageOne.htm
-> http://www.money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/

Market Talk: Krude out of the can...again! Growers bicker about market outlook. Weak hiring and high crude caused a Friday speed bump consolidation. However, techs may come to the rescue to add a rainbow to the squabble line. Semi's sighted on some of the kingdom high roads. Musketeers asking for volunteers to chase Horsemen. Interested persons can contact deputy Pry at the constables office. Local JP Will be hiring renowned bear hunter Birc, and can hopefully keep the Horsemen from eluding the musketeers. However, volunteer turn out was skimpy as folks stayed in the G shed.

Elsewhere: Mr. T the CEO of the local rag was busy stashing away a percent of recent loot in an old mattress. W-girl figured out how to get the sardines back in the tin. Local cowboys also returned to the shed after being bounced by the bulls, but they should be back shortly, cause Granny has some cure-all liniment.


Doodles, and Tea Leaves.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closing at 1196.02, dn -8.27
CMF (money flow) at 0.269, dn
RSI (strength) at 57.1, dn
MACD (trend) at 8.39, dn, bullish.

Nymex (Crude oil)
Closing at 55.03 up +1.40 (above 55 = jitters).

Attachment: S&P (3mo) chart ending 06-03. Added: 50dMA, P-SAR, RSI, MACD, and notes.

Tea leaves: Green


Yak.

Remarks: Holding 0/100 (60C, 40S). Trailing stop at 1180. Primary movement still bullish, and holding in channel.

Returns on TSPfor the past three weeks: G=+.03, F=+.10, C=+.46, S=+.85, I=+.28

 

[Spaf]

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Additional Market Comments

At times rumors fly like a cave full of bats. Investors need to rely on basic fundamentals and technical analysis, and a dash of news to see where the current talk thinks we're going!

I've listed some of the fundamentals I use. Willing to share, and also see what else might be available.


Market Watch News & Commentary:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?dist=&param=archive&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B853CBE58%2DE611%2D4EB6%2D9C7D%2DB90DE03D20FD%7D


Fundamentals:

Economics:

http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn1.htm

Consumer Confidence:

http://www.conference-board.org/economics/consumerconfidence.cfm

Price Index:

http://www.bls.gov/cpi/home.htm

Retail Trade and Food:

http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/fullpub.html

Unemployment:

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm

Production:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/Current/default.htm

Rgds, and be careful! Spaf

 

[Johnw]

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Spaf,

Great group of links. Lots of usefull information in there. '

Thanks man

 

[Birchtree]

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Veteran,

Are you holding your position tight or playing with the pistols? Can you feel the ground starting to rumble yet - I think we got a BIG one on the way. We'll see what Greenspan has to say to the Chinese in his question and answer session coming up sometime this week. Hope you had a good couple of weeks. Take care

Dennis

 

[Birchtree]

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Veteran,

Are you holding tight to your positions or playing with the pistols? Can you feel the rumbling under your feet - we got a BIG one on the way. Greenspan talks eith the Chinese some time this week and has a question and answer session with them. Maybe he'll say something memorable - hope you have had a number of good weeks since the 4/20 bottom. Take care

Dennis

 

[The_Technician]

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I want to mention something that you should currently want to pay atttention too...

Thecurrent S&P trading range is on the high side and narrow....that should tell you something.......

its not on the low side.....:shock:

Bottom lines are inching up every day.....but the top line hasn't really moved and it likely won't try to for the next several months....even then we are still in debate about it going up at all......I think that will be determined with the lack of or news of good economic data by that time.....:^

:dude:

 

[teknobucks]

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The Technician wrote:

I want to mention something that you should currently want to pay atttention too...

Thecurrent S&P trading range is on the high side and narrow....that should tell you something.......

its not on the low side.....:shock:

Bottom lines are inching up every day.....but the top line hasn't really moved and it likely won't try to for the next several months....even then we are still in debate about it going up at all......I think that will be determined with the lack of or news of good economic data by that time.....:^

:dude:

yep...it is wound up kinda tight!

see that cup and handle on the lt chart.... http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGSPC&t=my

WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

 

[Guest]

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teknobucks wrote:

The Technician wrote:

I want to mention something that you should currently want to pay atttention too...

Thecurrent S&P trading range is on the high side and narrow....that should tell you something.......

its not on the low side.....:shock:

Bottom lines are inching up every day.....but the top line hasn't really moved and it likely won't try to for the next several months....even then we are still in debate about it going up at all......I think that will be determined with the lack of or news of good economic data by that time.....:^

:dude:

yep...it is wound up kinda tight!

see that cup and handle on the lt chart.... http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGSPC&t=my

WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

That is not a cup and handle.

Duration is incorrect.

Duration: The cup extended for about 3 months and the handle for about 1 1/2 months.

 

[The_Technician]

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Tekno......

Those cup and handles are ok if you are expanding the economy.....I like in particular the expansion since the mid 70's over the technical's such as computer and blah blah blah that go with it.....but if you look a little to the left, I see a lot of cup and handles that didn't go anywhere.....currently, this is a strong possiblity...since we (US companies) have nothing to expand our economics world wide.......and even then given the new world market with NAFTA and maybe CAFTA, it wouldn't effect our population pocketbooks as much....

Personally, I'm looking to energy to make our day......in 60 years....:shock:

:dude:

 

[Guest]

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For a cup and handle break out the duration is incorrect.

Plain and simple.

 

[Guest]

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BTW the market is sinking like a rock.

Surprised?

 

[The_Technician]

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That sa good point DMA!!! Forgot about that one.....if it hasn't expanded sideways it means a failure.....:^

:dude:

 

[Guest]

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The Technician wrote:

That sa good point DMA!!! Forgot about that one.....if it hasn't expanded sideways it means a failure.....:^

:dude:

Historically, the last rally of a bull market tends to be the strongest within the cycle.

Welcome to reality. :shock::shock::shock:

 

[learning]

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Well I will be out of the I fund tommorow. It looks like a good time to bail to me. The EAFE fund is up today and the dollar is down so far. Now, the Euro is in for some possible problems as they had France and another country not sign off on their constitution. Throw on top of that there is talk that they may reduce their intrest rates and that could hurt the Euro. This would make the dollar worth more. Were coming up to a Fedmeeting and the dollar seems to improve until the meeting. Other side of the coin I have not seen the job report but heard that it helped the Euro today. Perhaps the Euro will continue the rally. I do not have that adventure in me.

SARA come on out and play. You appear to have a good grasp on the I fund what areyou up to.

RGDS and be careful, its your retirement. Just my two cents.

 

[teknobucks]

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The Technician wrote:

Tekno......

Those cup and handles are ok if you are expanding the economy.....I like in particular the expansion since the mid 70's over the technical's such as computer and blah blah blah that go with it.....but if you look a little to the left, I see a lot of cup and handles that didn't go anywhere.....currently, this is a strong possiblity...since we (US companies) have nothing to expand our economics world wide.......and even then given the new world market with NAFTA and maybe CAFTA, it wouldn't effect our population pocketbooks as much....

Personally, I'm looking to energy to make our day......in 60 years....:shock:

:dude:

I hear Uo

hey I'm on your side this week.....want u guys 2 be right so I can buy back in cheeeaaap!

gotta goride my bikeon the beach, will yak with you later.

tekno

 

[Guest]

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learning wrote:

Well I will be out of the I fund tommorow. It looks like a good time to bail to me. The EAFE fund is up today and the dollar is down so far. Now, the Euro is in for some possible problems as they had France and another country not sign off on their constitution. Throw on top of that there is talk that they may reduce their intrest rates and that could hurt the Euro. This would make the dollar worth more. Were coming up to a Fedmeeting and the dollar seems to improve until the meeting. Other side of the coin I have not seen the job report but heard that it helped the Euro today. Perhaps the Euro will continue the rally. I do not have that adventure in me.

SARA come on out and play. You appear to have a good grasp on the I fund what areyou up to.

RGDS and be careful, its your retirement. Just my two cents.

Would be very surprised is the EAFE fund will be up for today.

Japan (.26) was down and so was EVERY Euroland country.

UK -.44, CAC -.52, DAX -.42, etc, etc, etc.

USD was down but that is a tough hill to climb for a gain, IMHO.

 

[mlk_man]

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S fund came back up, anyone surprised? :l

 

[Show-me]

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Milk,

Seems like I'm surprised more and more every time I hit refresh. I am confusing myself more and more so I decided to give myself a “time out”. Manufactory numbers do concern me and I have greater concern for next weeks CPI and PPI.

I need to go out in the garden and stake out my tomatoes. Perfect day if your a tomatoes 90 degree and humid.

Good luck all and stop to smell the roses.

 

[mlk_man]

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Show-me wrote:

Milk,

Seems like I'm surprised more and more every time I hit refresh. I am confusing myself more and more so I decided to give myself a “time out”. Manufactory numbers do concern me and I have greater concern for next weeks CPI and PPI.

I need to go out in the garden and stake out my tomatoes. Perfect day if your a tomatoes 90 degree and humid.

Good luck all and stop to smell the roses.

Mmmmm, fresh tomatoes, you're making me hungry!!