Market Talk June 6-10

[Guest]

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learning wrote:

Well DMA, Thanks. The good wishes worked. Yahoo amended the charts at the top of the page. Hmmmm Still finished up for the day. Got my cent up and I'm out. Though, I'm looking to get back into the I fund later. Just wait for the Fed to speak and see the money markets. If they go up tell the Fed speaks and start a down turn then perhaps I will go in. However, another factor I want to see is the EU going to cut its rates. Does that, then I have a problem. Market over there should go up, but, money should go down. Hmm

Tom has made a point for a while about the 94 market and today’s market. He has been saying it for a while and it has been holding. If it continues may be a good chance to make some serious money.

Spaf called it right. Channel surfing is what we are doing. I have been trying to ride the short term waves. Done ok. Not as good as most, not as bad as others. How they do is not important, it's how each of us do. Translation- it's your retirement, you get the reward for your success and failure, not for what others did. We are just a group of people trying to help one another understand the market. Not even the so called experts seem to have it mastered. I like the dart method myself. Luck to all.

Side note. Think of a ROTH account on top of the TSP account. There is more money in that in the long run. Just get the matching funds in the TSP at least. If you can not handle a ROTH, (add money, leave it alone, find a fund to put it in, etc...) go for broke in the TSP. Just a thought, do as you will your retirement. Do what is best for you. One strategy does not work for all.

The Euro Union is basically falling apart.

I really do not understand what the negative country votes are about and why that appears to be positive for their markets. Since France voted out the I fund has risen..

Two of the biggest countries in the I fund Germany and France are in a recession.

Japan is in a recession.

I believe the rally today is they think the fed will stop (again).

I do not think the fed can stop at this point. I understand core inflation. But if you chuck housing, food and eneryback into the inflation index (hey who eats, uses gas or lives in a house anymore anyways?) inflation is kind of out of control, IMHO.

Did anyone hear a positive comment by greenspan last night?

Talk about a conundrum.:shock:

Last thing he wanted was the 10 year yield to dive again.

The yield spread is a shocker.

 

[The_Technician]

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Hey Tekno....

Why should we say we are going to have a stellar week....the current MO is working....we say it should be going down-but the markets up.......:shock:

I can't wait to see this thing to drop .......what a bubble....

:dude:

 

[Guest]

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Just tone out the before lunch stuff.

Want to see market action after 2pm.

Amazing the world's central banker for ONCE has said I am confused and the markets rally. :?

Whole time at the fed I have NEVER heard him say, I just don't get it in crystal clear English.

 

[The_Technician]

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Well in a way, this market action doesn't surprise me totally, I've see it happen before, the euphoria before the final action is exhillarating.(sp???)....

:dude:

 

[Spaf]

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This could be a profit taking day!

 

[Guest]

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Two day U.S. debt auctions start tomorrow to pay the trade balance deficiet.

Should be interesting.

I am not so sure the rally will last to the close. But if you are thinking of bailing hope it does for you.

 

[The_Technician]

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HERE'S LINK FOR SOME YIELD curve info.....

http://money.cnn.com/2005/06/03/news/economy/yield_slowdown/index.htm

same opinion on the market at the end of article.

 

[Spaf]

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Tech......Nice article! Kind of sorts it out. :i

 

[The_Technician]

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Here's another 3.9 million accounts with private information lost to whom???:shock:

Thats about 4 million in the last several months.....:X

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20050606/bs_afp/usbankingdatajustice_050606191358;_ylt=Ai7KafWXo8DQXxdUzHq82iamOrgF;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

Guess we will lose all our credit/monies not counting all the new debt you acquired due to someone else using your personal identity due to bank or credit card companies irresponsibility....now I wonder how they will make it look like you were the one who were responsibile for the private info breach??? Somehow they will......and when it happens could you sue the credit card companies/banks and get your life back.....or does the lawyer walk away with it all????:?

Change your card accounts or restrict them if you can....your SSN is vulnerable.....

:dude:

 

[Guest]

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DMA wrote:

I am not so sure the rally will last to the close. But if you are thinking of bailing hope it does for you.

I shorted this hog at noon.

Was the morning dumb money rush.

Smart money is after the deadline.

Tommorrow...market goes down more.

Not to scare anyone. Could see the 10 year over 4 again.

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date June 7th, Closing


Market News.

News: GM to close plants and lay off 25K! :' Airlines have underfunded pension plans! The big finance chief is getting mixed signals. The flattening yield curve, the slump in manufacturing and the strengthening dollar are all telling the big bank that it's almost time to stop raising rates. But the blooming housing market, the gains in incomes and the steady rise in inflation are telling the big bank it's barely begun.

The market is reacting to some bad reports and mixed signals.


Doodles and Tea Leaves.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closing at 1197.26 dn -025.
CMF (money flow) at0.230 falling.
RSI (strength) at57.7, slightly dn.
MACD (trend) at 7.89, dn, with potential crossover.

Nymex (Crude oil)
Closing at 53.76 dn -0.73

Tea Leaves: Yellow (caution).


Yak.

Remarks: Holding 60/40. Trailing stop at 1180. MACD histogram turns down. Yesterdays candlestick for the S&P was somewhat of a hammer, today it was a gravestone??

Rgds, and be careful! :% Spaf

 

[coolhand]

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Japan
Nikkei 225
11,306.98

+89.53
+0.80%
Jun 8, 2005 11:00


Must be time to "inhale".

 

[Guest]

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First session.

They have had slight problems on the second go.

That has been the pattern.

First session good. Second session bad.

Sort of like the U.S. market today.

Whoever bought at the last minute yesterday probably will bail prior to the start of the second session.

But only time will tell. They will not want to get smacked by the trade balance report either. :shock::shock:

 

[Guest]

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Speaking of the inverting yield curve.

Anyone notice the 30 year is at 4.18% now.

WOW!!!!!!!!

:shock::shock::shock: I thought that was a typo.

The spread for overnight and 360 monthsof risk is 1.18%!!!!!!!!!!!!

Who is going to blink first????????

 

[Mike]

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The pullback is coming. The herd is too optimistic and the institutional people are not.

 

[The_Technician]

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Wow Mike.....what a change of market sentiment you have going....2 weeks ago to this!!!.......I guess Iget the market indication much further ahead than you.....:shock:

Well join the crowd anyway, its getting larger by the day.....:^

:dude:

 

[Mike]

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I turned bearish (short-term) last week upon seeing the combination of manufacturing / payroll / sentiment data (along with high oil prices spiking over $55).

 

[tsptalk]

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The Technician wrote:

Wow Mike.....what a change of market sentiment you have going....2 weeks ago to this!!!.......I guess Iget the market indication much further ahead than you.....:shock:

Turning bearish near the top is probably a good strategy. Being bullish a couple of weeks ago wasn't too shabby either. Not bad for an amateur Mike.

 

[Mike]

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I can be wrong just as easily as right (see: 2004 :shock.

Tom, you get a little credit for this one - I'm utilizing your data along with all the economic fundamentals that I track. :^

Some key bond number hit 70 this week (for the life of me I cannot remember what it was called), and that apparently means prices are about to fall there - so I'll be bailing on that position soon, as well.

 

[teknobucks]

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Rolling over? http://tal.marketgauge.com/dvmgpro/gauges/TodaysGauges.asp