07/03/25
Despite a 10-point loss in the Dow, we had another solid day of gains for stocks on Wednesday. Small caps led on the upside again and bonds (F-fund) lagged as yields fell. We get the June jobs report this morning, the spending bill is supposed to get done by tomorrow, not to mention the tariff deadline is next week. All of this is happening in front of a 3-day weekend. Should we be worried?
(The most current commentary is always posted here: www.tsptalk.com/comments.php)
It's a holiday shortened week and there will be just a half day of trading today as the stocks market closes at 1 PM ET.
We get the June Nonfarm Payrolls jobs report this morning so it could cause some end of the week volatility. Estimates are looking for a gain of 120,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.2%.
Yesterday we got a much weaker than expected ADP jobs report that showed a surprising loss of 33,000 jobs last month. That said, the May ADP report also saw much fewer jobs than the May monthly Nonfarm Payroll numbers gave us. They differed by over 100,000, so which is closer to reality?
With all of the revisions that we've been getting in recent years, these labor reports have become nothing but market moving shows for most traders. So, regardless of the numbers, it's all about how investors react, and to me, what it does to the charts.
The market has been on fire in recent months and with everything that is coming up, it wouldn't be unreasonable to take some profits, but we could have said that for several weeks now and here we are seeing all-time highs in many of the major indices.
Yes, there will be headlines to shake things up in the short-term and we've seen that recently both domestically and geopolitically, and the market has been resilient and bounced back from each event.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) is still sitting at all time highs with some decent support just below where the old high and the old rising resistance line are meeting near 6145, after closing yesterday above 6200 this week for the first time ever. Support is running thin below that so I'd get a little concerned about the short-term if we see a close below 6145 as it would bring the 20-day EMA in play, as well as the open gap near 6020.
Seasonality is on the bulls' side right now, although the market has been ignoring seasonality lately - at least the bearish seasonality. Historically the market has a breeze at its back until after the 14th.
Source: www.sentimenTrader.com
The market leading Dow Transportation Index is trying to get in the game as it finally broke above its 200-day average this week, closing at a level not seen since February. The all time high on this index was made last November and it is still nearly 2000 points away.
The June TSP Talk AutoTracker winners have been posted in the forum. Congratulations to Pickles for being the top return for the month at +6.77%, and the other top 5 finishers who all had gains near 6%. This is why we do this. Get in on the action - it's free!
DWCPF / S-fund finally broke out of the channel / wedge it has been swimming in since May. It's not hard to see how far this has come in a short period of time, but it is still a long way from its 2024 highs near 2475, so it may still have some room to run.
The ACWX (I-fund) has slowed its roll but the dollar had a negative reversal day yesterday, and that could be telling us that the dollar has more weakness coming. Maybe the jobs numbers will bring that about, or perhaps it will delay the dollar's next move lower, but right now the I-fund continues to grind higher at a slower, but steady pace.
BND (bonds / F-fund) pulled back with yields rallying on the weak ADP jobs data? Again, that doesn't make much sense and I believe this is one of those charts in a pre-holiday reversal where yields will eventually rollover again, and this chart will resume higher. That is unless the jobs report completely changes the outlook on the labor market.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great holiday weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Despite a 10-point loss in the Dow, we had another solid day of gains for stocks on Wednesday. Small caps led on the upside again and bonds (F-fund) lagged as yields fell. We get the June jobs report this morning, the spending bill is supposed to get done by tomorrow, not to mention the tariff deadline is next week. All of this is happening in front of a 3-day weekend. Should we be worried?
(The most current commentary is always posted here: www.tsptalk.com/comments.php)
| Daily TSP Funds Return More returns |
It's a holiday shortened week and there will be just a half day of trading today as the stocks market closes at 1 PM ET.
We get the June Nonfarm Payrolls jobs report this morning so it could cause some end of the week volatility. Estimates are looking for a gain of 120,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.2%.
Yesterday we got a much weaker than expected ADP jobs report that showed a surprising loss of 33,000 jobs last month. That said, the May ADP report also saw much fewer jobs than the May monthly Nonfarm Payroll numbers gave us. They differed by over 100,000, so which is closer to reality?
With all of the revisions that we've been getting in recent years, these labor reports have become nothing but market moving shows for most traders. So, regardless of the numbers, it's all about how investors react, and to me, what it does to the charts.
The market has been on fire in recent months and with everything that is coming up, it wouldn't be unreasonable to take some profits, but we could have said that for several weeks now and here we are seeing all-time highs in many of the major indices.
Yes, there will be headlines to shake things up in the short-term and we've seen that recently both domestically and geopolitically, and the market has been resilient and bounced back from each event.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) is still sitting at all time highs with some decent support just below where the old high and the old rising resistance line are meeting near 6145, after closing yesterday above 6200 this week for the first time ever. Support is running thin below that so I'd get a little concerned about the short-term if we see a close below 6145 as it would bring the 20-day EMA in play, as well as the open gap near 6020.
Seasonality is on the bulls' side right now, although the market has been ignoring seasonality lately - at least the bearish seasonality. Historically the market has a breeze at its back until after the 14th.
Source: www.sentimenTrader.com
The market leading Dow Transportation Index is trying to get in the game as it finally broke above its 200-day average this week, closing at a level not seen since February. The all time high on this index was made last November and it is still nearly 2000 points away.
The June TSP Talk AutoTracker winners have been posted in the forum. Congratulations to Pickles for being the top return for the month at +6.77%, and the other top 5 finishers who all had gains near 6%. This is why we do this. Get in on the action - it's free!
DWCPF / S-fund finally broke out of the channel / wedge it has been swimming in since May. It's not hard to see how far this has come in a short period of time, but it is still a long way from its 2024 highs near 2475, so it may still have some room to run.
The ACWX (I-fund) has slowed its roll but the dollar had a negative reversal day yesterday, and that could be telling us that the dollar has more weakness coming. Maybe the jobs numbers will bring that about, or perhaps it will delay the dollar's next move lower, but right now the I-fund continues to grind higher at a slower, but steady pace.
BND (bonds / F-fund) pulled back with yields rallying on the weak ADP jobs data? Again, that doesn't make much sense and I believe this is one of those charts in a pre-holiday reversal where yields will eventually rollover again, and this chart will resume higher. That is unless the jobs report completely changes the outlook on the labor market.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great holiday weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
