Market Talk / Jan. 15 - 21

[Mike]

For those who think they know what they're doing in the markets, you can take part in the fox cashin' in challenge... (www.foxnews.com/business - then go to their cashin' in page)

You start with $10k. Each trade is assessed $15 in commission. No, you cannot short the market.

Any stock, etf, or fund is fair game.

I split my money between financials, healthcare, largecap value, emerging markets, and precious metals. About 40% is in the first three (defensive) and 60% is in the last two. It's a pretty ridiculous way to invest, but it's not real money, so why not?

 

[Wizard]

Mike go long: MO, MCD, HAL and RHEO.

 

[Show-me]

Tgif!

<sigh> Can't wait to see how the OS markets react on Monday. See you all on the flip side.

 

[Mike]

Mike go long: MO, MCD, HAL and RHEO.

Halliburton, Altria, McDonald's, and one I've never heard of... interesting.

Looks like Halliburton and the golden arches are breaking out through 52 week highs.

 

[oldschool]

Folks who bought Google, a few others, on margin recently might hear their phones ring Monday if the trend continues....

 

[Wizard]

Folks who bought Google, a few others, on margin recently might hear their phones ring Monday if the trend continues....

Down $70 per share in 6 trading days, yeek.

 

[G. Will Ickers]

Folks who bought Google, a few others, on margin recently might hear their phones ring Monday if the trend continues....

Google Vs. GM for the last 6 months

 

[James48843]

1-19-I am happy that the last couple days showed support at the lower levels- I think the bulk of the pullback is over.

today I am moving my money, which had been 60% in G, and then a little slit three ways elsewhere in stocks, into this new position:

0% G,
0% F,
30% S
30% C
40% I

I just did the IFT, hope it is effective today. We'll see.
.

It wasn't effective 1-19. Today the TSP site says it will be effective with the close of business today.

I couldn't be happier. Nice ride down and switching back into stocks at what I think is EXACTLY the right time. We'll see next week if this was the right move out of G and back into all stocks.

Good luck all.

 

[Birchtree]

Will it take 900 Dow points this time?

Look across the valley - see the bulls grazing on the green grass. This will pass just like in 3/05 and 4/05 when she gave up 900 points to hedge fund foolishness. Back then they were dumping the commodity stocks because China was slowing - didn't happen that way at all - and they all had to jump back in. This time the energy and commodity stocks, so far, are keeping me afloat. The surface looks worse than the internals dictate - just another head fake to shake you off your game plan. It's days like today that automatic dividend reinvestment and various dollar cost averaging really helps the long term buy and hold investor. No panic or fear here yet.

I do have a game plan to sell some profitable energy holdings to make the sacrificial purchase to increase that dividend yield - everything takes time so let'er come down some more if necessary - we got a lot of year left yet.

Dennis - permabull #2

 

[Skip]

lets see if 10700 holds as support level... It went right past it today.... should go up to that level monday....
I pulled out Tuesday "lucky""trading band" Waiting to get back in when the time is right... Will give it a few days next week to see whats up... We should level out as most pullbacks have been short.
Let the market show you when its ready to go back up...
100%G for the penny monday then to the f fund While waiting.
Skip

 

[Wheels]

Jumped back into the stock funds for Monday including 30% I. Later in the afternoon I started to regret that decision. The MSCI EAFE posted a loss of .439% and I thought "Uh-oh, this isn't good". The EFA was down about a percent and a half. There could easily be a lot more damage down, especially in the I if Asia follows us down on Sunday night. But then the TSP board did one of their famous revaluations and knocked the I fund down almost a percent. So in effect they owe us about a half a percent next week. Should soften the blow a little if internationals continue down. It's about time one of those revaluations worked in my favor instead of against me.

Dave
<><

 

[Master]

It is a loss only if you sell. Currently, the funds (C,S,I) are just ...

undervalued...

sit tight. I'm still 100% of my TSP in the I fund. I'm waiting to see what to do with 75% of my total IRA, which is in cash reserves. I plan to slowly buy into my less flexible (as compared to TSP) Fidelity portafolio. I missed the opportunity by selling my energy holdings early in December, but I still hold Emerging markets bonds and a Latinamerica fund.

I think the pendulum will keep pushing the stocks/funds down, providing for better opportunities to get into the market. I do not forsee consolidation until after couple of volatile weeks that are in front of us. The extent of the scandals in Japan might worsen, or prove just irrational. China and Latin America will continue to grow. However, for LAT markets, elections will be held in Mexico and Brazil, the two largest economies in LAT funds, creating uncertainty: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4435522.stm

Energy will continue to play a major role in 2006, I'm looking for better entry into FSESX or other energy funds. Venezuela continues being potentially unstable, Mexico faces election with socialist currently at the lead, issues in the Middle East (Iran nuclear ambitions, Iraq instability, new Kuwaiti ruler, etc), and active global terrorism threats will push those prices up. This will put some brakes into the tremendous growth of the Indian and Chinese economies. Given these issues, I do not expect a chance for sustained growth until Oil falls below $62 (Currently $68.48). In my view, that might be a better barometer that the bulls are back.

 

[tsptalk]

So in effect they owe us about a half a percent next week. Should soften the blow a little if internationals continue down. It's about time one of those revaluations worked in my favor instead of against me.

I hope it works out for you Dave. These things may even out in the long run for us, but it just doesn't feel like it, does it?

 

[Quips]

okay

The NY Times reported yesterday on line that Iran pulled out $50 billion of its reserves from European banks and its other financial interests interests there.

Iran did that to keeps its assets from being frozen in the case of UN sanctions.

I don't think it was also a coincidence that the markets dropped to Jan. 1 levels on the same day.

Things are warming up.

 

[Wizard]

The NY Times reported yesterday on line that Iran pulled out $50 billion of its reserves from European banks and its other financial interests interests there.

Iran did that to keeps its assets from being frozen in the case of UN sanctions.

I don't think it was also a coincidence that the markets dropped to Jan. 1 levels on the same day.

Things are warming up.

If they smart they will start buying gold. That is about the only option they have. 100 ounce bars and take delivery - LOL.

 

[Birchtree]

Is gold edible

Since when are the Russians, Chinese, and Koreans capable of feeding their populations without imports of agricultural products from our midwestern farmers. Didn't good old yellow back Jimmy use food against the Russians in the old days. Hard for any military to fight on an empty stomach. Can you drink oil no matter what the price? I know you can burn corn to keep warm and you can burn ethanol in your car. When you pound sand up an Arabs ass does he become impacted - let's give it a try. They want to die for Allah then we should be obligatory - no truce of anykind.

I think the Fed will pause on Jan 31 because of geopolitical tensions - we need to remain strong to achieve victory - not be looking at a Fed induced slow down to prevent inflation that so far is nonevident.

I take consolation in the fact that the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite remains in the black for 2006. Stock prices should eventually catch up with quarterly profit gains of companies in the S&P 500. Wall Street analyst expect these profits to continue to grow at double-digit rates throughout the year. This is the sort of market where investors really earn their stripes. They (IMHO) need to hold and suffer.

Dennis

 

[bkrownd]

I think the Fed will pause on Jan 31 because of geopolitical tensions - we need to remain strong to achieve victory - not be looking at a Fed induced slow down to prevent inflation that so far is nonevident.

The next two are already priced in. No need to overheat the marketplace by changing course and causing uncertainty.

 

[Show-me]

Since when are the Russians, Chinese, and Koreans capable of feeding their populations without imports of agricultural products from our midwestern farmers. Didn't good old yellow back Jimmy use food against the Russians in the old days. Hard for any military to fight on an empty stomach. Can you drink oil no matter what the price? I know you can burn corn to keep warm and you can burn ethanol in your car. When you pound sand up an Arabs ass does he become impacted - let's give it a try. They want to die for Allah then we should be obligatory - no truce of anykind.

Dennis

Hey Dennis,
Could ya quit shot'n from the hip and tell us how ya really feel. LOL! What about Brazil? Chavez (the CIA target nut case) is feverously courting Brazil and Brazil is becoming a agricultural power house.

 

[Show-me]

If United Airline is coming out of bankruptcy why did it go down 41%?

Anyone.........

 

[Wizard]

If United Airline is coming out of bankruptcy why did it go down 41%?

Anyone.........

(1) Rise in crude prices.
(2) On big sell off days the most speculative stocks get hit the worse.