Market Talk / Jan. 15 - 21

[The_Technician]

Possible bottoms....

This could turn ugly.

Any technical geniuses out there have any reasonable guesses as to where the market will find its support?

For those of us on the sidelines, it'd be nice to drop all the way back to the long-term trendline and then bounce back, but I doubt we'll go that far (unless we go to war with Iran).

Well I don't know if I qualify or not Mike, sometimes in the past I have really missed the boat....but in general, have stayed the bearish course....

My guess is the EAF will drop in the low 50's, S&P into the 1000 range and the Wilshire down to 490's at the worst....

I still believe the "global economy" has come to a halt mainly due to the one way commerce between the US and the rest of the world....what has happened is the prolonging of profit making due to cheaper operational expenses by companies moving outside of the US, without consideration of the dead end it leads to.....without incomes in the market you're selling your products to (US) you soon will run out of consumers....and thats what we have here....no consumers with extra money to spend....so no sales.... and soon no products because of no sales.....unless of course they drop the sales prices so that those consumers can afford the products.....but that is a whole new ball game....that means less profits!!!

But if its the only profit in town then its a good un!

 

[Wizard]

Not to mention the treasury is trying to sell $200B in new debt this quarter.

This situation in Japan I think is a hedge fund or derivated trade going bad. One IPO start up does not cause this kind of damage.

We had the IPO startup Refco blow up and the market did not even flinch.

 

[The_Technician]

Dollar is strengthening

Not to mention the fed is trying to sell $200B in new debt this quarter.

This situation in Japan I think is a hedge fund or derivated trade going bad. One IPO start up does not cause this kind of damage.

We had the IPO startup Refco blow up and the market did not even flinch.

This could be a real bad day for the I fund....foreign markets dropping like a brick and the dollar strengthening.....

hmmmmm, what say ya Birchy....can you explain this drop out, whats pushing it other than the oil wrench and such that we already know of and discussed in the recent past.........

Love that F fund.....its returning more than the G and still going......and going and going......dang, they should call it the "Everready" Fund!!!

 

[Wizard]

When was the last time the I fund was massaged?

Today would sure be a good day. Would not look good to have one of the great TSP index funds to have a one day lose of 3%.

 

[Wizard]

I fund index ETF EFA is down 1.48% in pre market.

 

[roguewave]

I Fund Boogie

Geeze, relax; it's only going to get much more volatile and interesting. The paper wars have begun in earnest and some of you appear to be getting weak in the knees. 100% I fund. Here's where being an investor whose view of the future can set you apart from being someone who tries to time price movements along the way. The former buys the dips and averages his/her cost per share along the way, the latter, tries to guess the direction.

Far to much intrigue for yours truly. Good luck all.

 

[sugarandspice]

What about a 2 day loss of over 3% in the I fund? Today is just going to get worse from here.

 

[LA_Guy]

Suprisingly, the market are holding up well today in the first hour of trading. SP500 down only 2 points... Amazing!!!

 

[vectorman]

The DJTA up big...hard to believe with high oil prices and uncertainty. Hmmmmmmm Is that a sign for tomorrow? What do they know that we don't?
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=DJTA

 

[oldschool]

With the size of the drops on consecutive days in Japan, seems that they could be "enjoying" some margin calls - brokers selling investor's pledged shares into a declining market and adding to the decline. So maybe not over just yet what with the market there shutting early with folks still needing to get their trades off....

 

[The_Technician]

I fund back to where

What about a 2 day loss of over 3% in the I fund? Today is just going to get worse from here.

it started the year .......dollar is now falling.....but not much.....I'm waiting for that rate increase and see what happens.....

F fund sure looks good.....

 

[Show-me]

Not the end of the world, just a big slap in the face to remind us that the market is in control. Gotta have some pain.

 

[oldschool]

Story out yesterday said Japan markets at 14 year highs for positions bought on margin. Story in my account talk thread for those who are interested in this possible margin angle.

 

[Wizard]

To bad the Beige Book comes out at 2.

I really can not make a TSP move until that is out.

Three in a row caused a massive short squeeze and last one caused a sell off.

 

[Quips]

correction

Somebody mentioned a 10% correction in the past week or two. It is a natural occurance that periodicallly happen. There is no problem except for speculators.

 

[The_Technician]

10% down

Somebody mentioned a 10% correction in the past week or two. It is a natural occurance that periodicallly happen. There is no problem except for speculators.

Yeah I did.....and the problem won't be going anywhere for a while ......so don't put your money at high risk.....its a mess coming our way, I just can't say whats next.....

The thing to do here is not put your eggs in the basket thats falling...I have mentioned this in the recent past,......the market is dangerous in this period of time......for months.....be selective and short with your moves.....for they won't go up long before they go down.....

 

[Spaf]

.....its a mess coming our way, I just can't say whats next.....

Lets venture a guess. I'll go -2.3% or -30 points on the S&P. How's that!

 

[Wizard]

Big fight in the pits over the Beige Book. My guess is we see a rally to the close.

 

[sugarandspice]

Big fight in the pits over the Beige Book. My guess is we see a rally to the close.

I see triple digit loss today

 

[bkrownd]

There is no problem except for speculators.

More shares for your dollar. Fortunately my TSP contribution is going in this week instead of last week.