Market Talk / Feb. 12 - 18

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Spaf

Spaf

Honorary Hall of Fame Member
The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday-Weekly
Early Edition
Feb. 12, 2006​

Fortuneteller.gif

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak............ The market was in the middle of a bearish movement, with lower lows and lower highs. However, earnings were good, and lube was declining.
Jester Yak............. Thursday was a gravestone, friday was a hangman. The week was an inverted head and shoulders.
Other Yak.............. Is it Bullsville? Bearsville? The Range? Well, stay tuned!

Doodles:
Socks.................. S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at............. 1266.99, up +2.96 for the week.
Money flow........... -0.41, increasing.
Averages.............. -1.44, decreasing.
Slow STO............. +34.56, increasing.
Overbought/sold.... [70] 48.2 [30]
Stops................... NA.
Chart................... 6mo., 32dEMA, MACD, RSI (Attached).

Lube..................... Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at.............. 61.84, dn -3.53 for the week.
Markers:............... <60 = ok, 60-65 = worry, >65 = critical.

Tea leaves:
Charts and Stuff..... Red.

The Tin Box:
Position................ 100G.
TSP Ended: G=11.21 F=10.65 C=13.78 S=16.94 I=18.28
Last Week: G=11.20 F=10.67 C=13.74 S=17.12 I=18.42

SP5000210.gif
 
tid bits

Keynesian macro economic theory - calls for government to prescribe specific macro economic policies in an effort to ameliorate business cycles. A four year stock market cycle seems to have become a part of the investment landscape since the mid-twentieth century. From April 1942 to October 2002, 15 stock market cycles have occured, each averaging four years duration. It is not at all surprising to find that the stock market often has made major bottoms about two years before presidential elections and has risen through the end of election years.

When looking at the 4-year cycle tops of 1966, and 1994, in all 3 cases the market rallied out of a 4-year cycle low in October and charged ahead for 3+ years, ultimately gaining more than 60%. That includes the 2002 bottom.

Consumer spending is dominant in the economy as a whole to such an extent that it is, by itself, the sector that cyclically determines the direction of the overall economy. This being the case, carefully monitoring overall consumer spending - or even more significantly, forecasting the direction of consumer demand - is the key that unlocks effective forecasting for most other developments and sectors in the economy.

The 2000 bear market began as the rate of growth in consumer spending peaked and began to slow. Recently, we have seen real consumer spending begin possibly to peak - but not slow down. Some one continues to purchase all that stuff from China helping to maintain our trade deficits.

Industrial production peaked one quarter after consumer spending peaked and the bear market began. But capital spending remained strong for three quarters into the bear market and right up until the quarter before the recession started. The same holds true for corporate profits. No bear on my horizon as of yet - but I'm always searching.

Dennis - permabull #2 I apparently left out 1998 - oops.
 
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A few more tid bits

From Henry To of marketThoughts.com

Everything That I am looking at still suggests that this is a secular bear market. Another example: Trimtabs has been calling for a 20% to 30% rally in the S&P 500 based on corporate insider and private equity buying for the last 12 months but that has never materialized. (yet) What they are missing - I think - is the fact that retail investors are just sick of large cap stocks, even six years after the bubble has burst. Such behavior on the part of retail investors is abnormal if we are in a secular bull market. Of course, we all know that small caps and the mid caps are making all-time highs but by definition, they only make up a small part of the market. Besides, small caps also continued to make all-time highs after 1966, and we all know what happened during the 1968 to May 1970 debacle. (we do). Also, small caps habve been pretty much outperforming since 1999, and it is time for them to take a breather.

Thanks Henry - but Birchy will hold his 100% C fund for a 34% gain - just how long will I be the bag holder? until it is full of new shares.

Dennis - permabull #2
 
Lots of Bears, That could mean a Rally Next Week!

Birchtree,

Getting too bearish, so we might get a rally next week. Will it be just another failed rally or will last weeks 1250's support hold? I'll stay on the sidelines for now, but we are getting ready for something big. The question is which direction? The Fed, options expiration, and Iran will be Big Next Week.

I haven't seen it this Bearish in awhile, contrarian indicator or a real breakdown of the technicals. Blast-off or crash and Burn, buckle up my friends!


Response was to this question: "At the end of next week will the S & P 500 close up (bull), down (bear), or unchanged/no opinion (neutral)?"

Weekly BULLS: 20%
Weekly BEARS: 56%

Our `Smart Money' Pollees are 75% Bearish and 25% undecided.

The Senticator is Bullish.
 
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I still see

a down direction for the overall market....still haven't changed my outlook thru April....getting some more negative moves in the power of stock trading....looking for this to continue for some time...

Last week I mentioned the condrum the US seems to be in with interest rates and oil prices increases. There are several ways to exit this situation and the oil barons will have to drop their profits. I've heard of a severe drop in oil prices in rumors but that remains to be seen. Also, inflationary pressures could subside if the economy subsides which isn't great but may be necessary. It would be a positive if taxes were reduced and imports were minimized given some jobs back to US citizens....but that is another quagmire. Can we produce products that is cheap enough to sell overseas???

There seems to be a minimum we can do, but also we are restricted on what we can do. Seems to me we in that corner that we painted ourselves into.....basically the country is broke and our Congress in the last 50 years put us there. There needs to be some handcuffs put on congress on what they can and can't approve moneys for.....those porkbarrel projects have got to go though....There should be some restriction to where proportions of our tax dollar goes and there should be some set percentage that our government can expect from every citizen...of course this could be accomplished if a true model of such could be adopted world wide...that is the only way it will happen....and there is a model, maybe not research yet, but there is a possibility....until then, we will just continue to be unstable and go broke every so many centuries...

Maybe trading oil in other currencies would be necessary as well.
 
Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Feb. 13, 2006​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak............ Cartel speaks, socks slide! Negative sentiment and interest rate woes.
Other Yak.............. Lube at 6 week low.

Doodles:
Socks................... S&P 500 ($SPX)
Closed at.............. 1262.86, dn -4.13
Money flow............ -0.040, decreasing.
Stops................... NA.
Averages.............. -1.78, decreasing.
Slow STO............. +31.85, decreasing.
Overbought/sold..... [70] 45.7 [30]

Lube..................... Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at............... 62.31, dn -0.55
Markers:................ <60 = ok, 60-65 = worry, >65 = critical.

Tea leaves:
Charts and Stuff...... Red

The Tin Box:
Position................. 100%G.
 
The action today was to have taken place last Friday that's why I got back in.
Looks like a good place to get in with the NASDAQ at 2239.
Will just have to ride out this wave. I have been dry in the G fund for a few weeks now, it feels funny getting burded and wet at the same time.
Lets hope for a better day tomorrow.
 
Their heads are spinning in NYC, digging out from all that snow. There may be large swings of mood or sentiment this week. Just a little good news from some unexpected quarter could trigger it.

Dave
 
Must Hold Steady

One of the hardest lesson I learned from Mr. Market is not to expect gains everyday. It is so easy to expect to have up days everyday.

After these last few months I have come to expect Mr. Market to dish out daily gains. I rode the I fund back at the end of 05. I rode the S train in January and early February. Now that Mr. Market is throwing some pain my way, it is very hard not to run to the safety of the G fund. It's funny how Mr. Market teaches the same lesson over and over again!

I still like the long term outlook, but it is a daily struggle not to make an IFT by 12pm. I find myself walking away from my computer till after the deadline.

Happy trading all,

Jeff
 
ATCJeff said:
it is very hard not to run to the safety of the G fund.
Click to expand...

Yes it is.

1. You don't want to take a loss

2. But, you may actually incur further loss (at least shares are intact)

3. Finally, if you seek shelter the market will take off the next day:p

God Bless:)
 
;) ATCJeff,

Make your decisions based on what you beleive the market will do, not on what is has already done. If you are driven by trying to take extra risk to make up for a loss, or run to shelter because of a loss, you will likely incur greater loss as your decisions will be based on emotion rather than rational decision making. This will then quickly become little more than "gambling", and bad gambling at that :eek: .

Positions trading and/or market timing is not for everybody, and there's no shame in "buy and hold" until you find a strategy that works for you, or at least you are moderately comfortable with. ;)

Good Luck
 
Whenever I am of stocks for any length of time, I find myself frequently saying "Just one more down day and I am back in". One of 2 things usually happens. either I can't get to a computer before noon or more commonly, the market goes up for a couple of days. Well, here we are again. If tomorrow is looking like a down day, I will be back in Wednesday. If the market shoots up a couple of hundred points tomorrow, you know who you can thank.

Dave
<><
 
Wheels said:
Whenever I am of stocks for any length of time, I find myself frequently saying "Just one more down day and I am back in". One of 2 things usually happens. either I can't get to a computer before noon or more commonly, the market goes up for a couple of days. Well, here we are again. If tomorrow is looking like a down day, I will be back in Wednesday. If the market shoots up a couple of hundred points tomorrow, you know who you can thank.

Dave
<><
Click to expand...

Still a bit early, but futures are looking green.:cool:
 
bkrownd said:
Ouch. :( A day late. :(
Click to expand...

If it's a good day, it'll be meant for those of us still in and who have been whipsawed the past week.:D

If I were in (G), I think I'd lay low until after Ben testifies on Wednesday. It's anyone's guess on what he will say and how the market will react. But keep in mind, the market usually does the opposite the next day.

I've already been exposed, so I'm simply waiting to ride this thing back up.

God Bless:cool:
 
Dollar seems

to be dropping again today....still expecting 1.17's soon....I fund should suffer....

S fund could be a short term play.:)

C fund is iffy.:confused:

G fund pulled through again...;)

F fund.......nope.....but could turn for a short term....

Hope we all are having fun(d)!!!! :D
 
The overly heated retail sales report today means that the fed will be raising for awhile. :cool:

When will the market put two and two together?

The bond guys all ready "got it".:D
 
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