Market Talk / April 16 - 22

[Soldat]

Next week we will rally to new highs. Expect this month to finish strong. Watch for profit taking on oils which will weigh on the FTSE and S&P. The dollar looks like it will regain some ground next week. Lower dollar exchange hurts Japanese exports and Japan loves to rally off of S&P. The Nikkei is poised to rally on monday, but could possible be scared off by neutral to weak US markets. Bonds/F-fund is priced for the rate hike, but will rebound on higher energy prices which drive inflation. F fund is close to a 52 week low and if I wasnt so bullish on the Euro, I would own a chunk of it. ^GDAXI and ^FCHI will rise. ^FTSE is hot to the touch, partially from heavy oils. Oils will reside and ^FTSE will weaken. ^GSPC is slightly oversold. Wilshire 4500 is not my favorite.

 

[roguewave]

Next week we will rally to new highs. Expect this month to finish strong. Watch for profit taking on oils which will weigh on the FTSE and S&P. The dollar looks like it will regain some ground next week. Lower dollar exchange hurts Japanese exports and Japan loves to rally off of S&P. The Nikkei is poised to rally on monday, but could possible be scared off by neutral to weak US markets. Bonds/F-fund is priced for the rate hike, but will rebound on higher energy prices which drive inflation. F fund is close to a 52 week low and if I wasnt so bullish on the Euro, I would own a chunk of it. ^GDAXI and ^FCHI will rise. ^FTSE is hot to the touch, partially from heavy oils. Oils will reside and ^FTSE will weaken. ^GSPC is slightly oversold. Wilshire 4500 is not my favorite.

You and many others on this board have it completely backwards. The US markets don't lead and the international markets don't follow. This myth ended some five years ago. This is why so many of you are having difficulty understanding the I fund, you're still caught up in a lot of myths concerning our economy and markets. In fact our economy is in recession heading for worse. Here's a tidbit, did you ever consider that just maybe a very good reason why the international markets are doing so well is due to the level of cooperation these countries are providing in regards to an upcoming orderly devaluation of the dollar? What firm designed the Index the I fund tracks? What is their relationship to London?

In order to understand "these" markets you have to understand the architecture that provides the foundation for them and how it's unravelling before your eyes.


http://www.imf.org/External/spring/2006/imfc/statement/eng/arg.pdf

I could go on and on. Good luck.


http://yahoo.reuters.com/stocks/Quo...rpc=44&search=.DXY&searchtype=symbol&norics=1

 

[Soldat]

I agree with some of what you say. But you are quite the pessimist. We are the greatest Empire in the world. Even if we have doubled the amount of printed currency in the last 9 years alone.

Theres a reason why the dollar is declining, but even then, it is artificially bolstered by our war economy. Yes, we are in trouble, but our economy is still stronger than the data says it should be.

Dont frown our friend, not all is lost. We went to Iraq when Iraq wanted to incorporate the Euro. When we are done, Iraq will run off USD. We go to Iran next. Then Syria; soon Nigeria. We go to Afghanistan. We are an Empire now, get used to that.

 

[biggdog1]

Empire? "DARK" leaders from the past rise again? Does this sound like the "Galactic Empire and Darth Vader" against the Rebels? No our economy is strong but the International economy has left us behind I'm afraid. As long as we try to protect the free world's oil supplies we will get weaker! If it were not for our war economy, we would not be doing as good as we are !!! Picture this, China becoming the leading world economy in the next 10 years. A scary thought, but it could happen.

 

[Wimpy]

Empires Can...

...every stinkin' one of 'em!

 

[Birchtree]

Whimpy,

You gave me a smile today - thankyou very much. You wanna buy some lovely gold coins - I mean they are gorgeous - they light up the entire room.

 

[FundSurfer]

You and many others on this board have it completely backwards. The US markets don't lead and the international markets don't follow. This myth ended some five years ago.

Rogue, I've seen it enough time myself to know that it does happen. When the US markets take off, expect the foriegn markets to follow the next day. You do not see the reverse. Why? Because none of the foriegn markets is big enough to have that big of an impact. I've watched Japan take off and US markets don't follow except for sectors of the market that might be influenced.

 

[Birchtree]

Please, not again...

The April 2006 Hindenberg Oman has now been confirmed, there have been three official confirming Omens. In each instance, a sharp decline followed within 1 to 4 months.

The Hindenberg effects are normally muted when the NYSE AD line has recently achieved new three year highs. Currently, the NYSE AD line has recently posted new 45 year highs on a ratio adjusted basis. No sidelines for me.

 

[ayla]

I googled for "Hindenburg Omen" and found one site saying
"Put another way, there is a greater than 25 percent probability that a stock market crash - the big one - will occur after we get a confirmed (more than one in a cluster) Hindenburg Omen. There is a 41 percent probability that at least a panic or crash sell-off will occur. There is a 54.5 percent probability that a sharp decline greater than 8.0 % will occur, and there is a 77.2 percent probability that a stock market decline of at least 5 percent will occur. Only one out of roughly 7.5 times will this signal fail."

from: http://www.safehaven.com/article-3880.htm

Sounds pretty serious to me. So I'll address this question to Birchtree, why are you saying "no sidelines for me" when there is a confirmed Hindeburg Omen? Am I understanding that you mean you plan to stay in stocks (enthusiastically) even though you know about this Hindenburg Omen?

 

[Spaf]

Ayla,
birch is off line.
Gotta close the thread for this week. Birch can reply on next weeks thread, or you can ask the question again. OK?

See you next week! Rgds, and be careful........

.........Spaf