Market Talk / April 16 - 22

[The_Technician]

I can't help it but say I think that the glutinous greed of the oil companies/market players needs containment.....I believe in the free market.....but....., let there be free unrestrained competition in the energy industry....if you don't believe me just try to start an oil company....(courtesy of Bill O'Reilly)

The IMF International Monetary Fund wants to play politics with our economy, yesterday, they suggested we increases taxes on petrol products to supress use....of course this would be a death touch to what is left of our economy....[this is their intention (they are in with the third world countries to take your future from you and your children) if you don't know by now]....instead we should inspire a free market in the energy development in Hydrogen.....infrastructure and whatever it takes....instead the energy pigs took control by special interests in politics and created their own monopoly....thereby controlling what we pay for everyday energy.....they are reaching into your pocketbook and basically taking your money by cornering u.......:blink:

We may be going to pay for our govt representatives failures.....yeap they are failures.....scum....sold u (who voted them in) out....I will repeat what my father told me years ago...vote the incumbent out....!!! And keep voting them out.....year after year....

Energy is cheap, its abundant and all around us, more than what we could ever use in the world daily, its developing/converting, transporting it and human intervention that costs alot for now....converting will be cheap if they fulfill the need.....

 

[JOVARN]

I think the euphoria over the housing report and the earnings report may start to wane under the high price of oil and fact that Iran is going to get whacked sooner then later.
I also believe that the sell in May mantra may be in the back of investor’s minds. With that said lets do the math. All time highs+Rising Oil+ Housing report is old news+Sell in May= Correction of some sort and a better buying opportunity in the near future.

Well what do I know, at the start of last week I was down 1+% in my TSP. Thanks to the last few days, I made that back and some.
Just one man’s thought

 

[Wizard]

The C fund is just waiting for mom and pop chinese money that will surely land soon. Common sense dictates sell some metals and oil service -

Birchy, China Mom and Pop investors are putting their money into the Australia, Thailand and Philippines stock markets. Let me clue you in. The Chinesse do not like our trade practices; quote control on textiles, toys, etc. We have put a lot of them out of work (over 200K) because we slap quotes on them. We also have blocked them from buying U.S. companies. They are bullish on Uranium, which Australia holds 40% of the world reserve.

 

[Wizard]

Besides who in their right mind would purchase stocks in a currency that will go down against theirs. Your stock goes up and your currency value goes down and you are lucky to break even after the currency conversion fees.

Got gold and silver?

:nuts:

 

[Show-me]

We may be going to pay for our govt representatives failures.....yeap they are failures.....scum....sold u (who voted them in) out....I will repeat what my father told me years ago...vote the incumbent out....!!! And keep voting them out.....year after year....

Energy is cheap, its abundant and all around us, more than what we could ever use in the world daily, its developing/converting, transporting it and human intervention that costs alot for now....converting will be cheap if they fulfill the need.....

You are correct! Oil everywhere.....Venesula, U.S.A., O'CANADA! Each of these countries have reserves more than our good friend in Saudi Arabia if you count oil sands and oil shale. We ARE getting screwed. Suncor is producing oil sand oil for $15/barrel. Duh! Produce for $15 sell for $70........366.7% profit. :suspicious:

 

[LA_Guy]

The C fund is just waiting for mom and pop chinese money that will surely land soon.

If you're waiting for them to land soon, you might have to wait a lot longer because they're taking a very slow boat from China.

Joking aside...All the mom and pop chinese money are going crazy over the gold. Believe it or not, look at the headlines from any Chinese newspaper and you will see what I mean. You don't need to read Chinese, just look at the pictures alone will tell you that Gold fever is in full session on the other side of the globe.

 

[LA_Guy]

Chinese eye gold for better returns.
http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BT/Friday/Corporate/BT562505.txt/Article/

 

[Wizard]

If you're waiting for them to land soon, you might have to wait a lot longer because they're taking a very slow boat from China.

Joking aside...All the mom and pop chinese money are going crazy over the gold. Believe it or not, look at the headlines from any Chinese newspaper and you will see what I mean. You don't need to read Chinese, just look at the pictures alone will tell you that Gold fever is in full session on the other side of the globe.

I am in China right now. They sell gold, silver and platimum at their grocery stories at spot. No market up.

Sorry Birchy, I have not seen a S&P 500 Stock line here yet. :worried: :nuts:

 

[Wizard]

Chinese eye gold for better returns.
http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BT/Friday/Corporate/BT562505.txt/Article/

Gold is all ready up $40 dollar an ounce from the date of that article (14 April).

 

[LA_Guy]

Wizard,
I know exactly what you mean. Same thing is going on over here in LA China town. Wish I had bought some more gold bullions over the weekend before the big surge in the past few days but most of the jewelry stores are all sold out.

 

[The_Technician]

A black Monday in

the making???

Yesterday, I said my next date of concern is May 8th....I looked this morning and its on a Monday.....is this a black monday in the making???

One wonders with all the market data as it is......:blink:

 

[Brett]

If the markets are down tomorrow morning before noon. I'm going to jump out, back to G.

 

[Birchtree]

All righty now

All you Chicken Littles and friends get off the rails because the train is coming through - the profit taking has completed and now the BULLS are back in charge. Liquidity is plentiful as referenced by the continued new all-time highs on the MID and SML. Soon to see DJIA at 11.722.98 - then the fun begins. And the Chinese want some of this value play as well.

 

[James48843]

Re: Jump back Jack

As I said yesterday, I rode the bull up here, and now I am going to bail.

Today, moving away from: 60% I and 40% S,

into: 80% "G" fund, and 10% each for I and S.

I figure I rode the I and S up nicely to new all-time highs, but the threat of oil reverberating through the economy is scaring me off to the sidelines to see how things shake out. I will leave just enough (10% each in I and S) to possibly take advantage of anything upward over the next couple days until I can get a better picture on direction, but I am putting 80% in "G" just to save for a better buying opportunity. The one thing I've learned is that if you are in 100% stocks when you hit new highs, chances are you can buy back a little cheaper if you have the abilty to watch from the sidelines for a retrace. So that is what I am doing.

Have a great one. Let's see if my trade can get through today. I hope so.

My trade was executed yesterday at the close, right on time. I am now sitting 80% "G:, 10 in "I", and 10 in "S", while I wait a little, enjoy the profit from the last series of trades, and wait for a buying opportunity significantly below here for the "I" and "S" funds. I think the opportunity will present itself in the next two weeks to buy back at perhaps 3% lower than here. When it does, I'll move back.

Might as well. That is where I am today. JP

 

[Birchtree]

Goog reported great earnings after the close today - the stock is up 34 points in after hour trading - should have a nice impact on the C fund tomorrow. I believe so far there has been a 22% reporting of SPX earnings and they are coming in above expectations of around 17% versus 11% consensus. You have to be in to win - not on the sidelines watching the parade.

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
April 20, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak..............................Socks mixed! Dow on high.
Other Yak................................Cautiously Bullish!


Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1311.46, up +1.53
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.009, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+2.787, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........83.47, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 59.57 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................71.95, dn -0.22
Oil Markers................................<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >??= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Yellow & Green

Tin Box:
Position.....................................50% Socks
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1306. Trail: 1294.

 

[teknobucks]

anyone watching gold and silver??

DJ NY Precious Metals Review: Silver Leads Liquidation Tumble
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES



Precious metals tumbled on fund and speculative long liquidation Thursday,
with silver falling especially hard after it previously had been the one
posting the most dramatic rally over the last couple of months, traders and
analysts said.

"Really, it's just a rush to cash in profits on what was really a spectacular
move higher," said Tim Evans, analyst with IFR Markets.

June gold settled $12.90 lower at $623.10 per ounce on the Comex division of
the New York Mercantile Exchange. It had hit an overnight contract high of
$649, the strongest level since 1980.

May silver settled down $1.997 to $12.525 an ounce after an overnight
contract high of $14.69 that was this metal's most muscular level since 1983.
Around mid-morning, the silver futures hit their $1.50 limit down and were
closed for 15 minutes, before reopening with an expanded limit, according to an
official with the exchange.

At its contract high, May silver was up a whopping 61% from its Feb. 14 low
of $9.14. At its contract high, June gold was up 20% from its March 10 low of
$540.20.

The metals have been boosted lately by a number of factors, including
momentum-based buying and geopolitical tensions tied to Iran's nuclear
program. Silver has been getting an added impetus this year on anticipation of
an exchange-traded fund by Barclays Global Investors, which has been approved
for listing on the American Stock Exchange but cannot be launched until the
Securities and Exchange Commission approves a registration statement.

Some analysts have suggested lately that there was so much bullishness in the
silver market that it may have run out of potential buyers.

At the beginning of the week, the Market Vane Bullish Consensus indicator
showed that 97% of traders were bullish on silver, said Steven Jon Kaplan, gold
and silver analyst with TrueContrarian.com.

"This is a remarkably high Bullish Consensus," he said. "So the market ran
out of people willing to buy."

This comes at a time when there have been reports that with gold and silver
hitting such lofty levels, some traditional buyers in countries such as India
have been selling metal lately, including personal items, said Kaplan.

Furthermore, an increase in the silver margin after Wednesday's session may
have contributed to Thursday's pullback, said Kaplan. This meant many traders
probably raised their sell stops, he said.

"So if people had a sell stop at $11, they may have raised it to $12," said
Kaplan. "If they had it at $12, they may have raised it to $13.

"Then, with all these people raising their sell stops, if there is a small
drop like we had this morning, it triggers these sell stops from speculators
and that in itself creates additional selling pressure."

Evans commented that it's too soon to say whether gold and silver have put in
long-term tops.

"But this certainly puts an exclamation point at the end of the rally and
does set some significant resistance in place as the benchmark for future price
action," he said, in reference to the contract highs.

He characterized the pullback as part of a broader commodities move rather
than due to any market-specific fresh news. Crude oil was also lower as gold
closed, although it was off its weakest levels of the day.

Kaplan commented that there has been a tendency for commodities to both rise
and fall together lately due to the increased flow from funds. This is because
these managers often look at chart patterns more heavily than simply focusing
on supply/demand fundamentals.

Peter Grandich, metals analyst and publisher of the Grandich letter,
described the pullback as "long overdue," "not surprising" and even "healthy"
for those with a long-term perspective.

"The first pullback is likely to be bought aggressively because there are
still a lot of people trying to get in," he said. "But it's likely to signal at
least the beginning of a short- to intermediate-term correction for most
metals, especially those rising in a parabolic state. That would be silver and
copper."

Eventually, however, he said he looks for the metals to resume their upward
move.

The Platinum Group Metals also tumbled on speculative liquidation.

"There is a lot of profit-taking," said one trader. "There was a big
clean-out in gold and silver. Platinum and palladium were just following gold
and silver."

July platinum settled down $22 to $1,108.80 an ounce after hitting a contract
high of $1,145 overnight. June palladium lost $23.95 to $349.90 an ounce.


Settlements (open-outcry trading only):
London PM Gold Fix: $625 Versus $624.75 Wednesday
U.S. spot gold at 2:28 p.m. ET: $619.80, down $20.40 from
previous day; Range: $607.55-$645.75
June gold (RGCM06) $623.10, down $12.90; Range $610.50-$645.00
May silver (RSIK06) $12.525, down $1.997; Range $12.20-$14.330
July platinum (RPLN06) $1108.80, down $22.10; Range $1107.00-
$1136.00
June palladium (RPAM06) $349.90, down $23.95; Range $345.00-
$372.00

 

[teknobucks]

Where Is Gold Going?
by Jay Taylor
April 19, 2006

http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=2322

 

[Spaf]

Tekno,
See U at all G for shelter of soxs......Not a bad idea!.....:nuts:
Energy could give fundamentals a blackeye.......
Rgds!.......and be careful........Spaf

 

[robo]

Oil over 75 a barrel, premium gas in some areas over 4 bucks a gallon. OUCH!!!