Malyla's Account Talk

[malyla]

Oh man, I was advised by a friend a couple weeks ago to watch Finding Nemo to improve my state of mind. I didn't do it yet, now I may never get the chance-Nemo-will he make it out of the fish market alive?

He does

I just love Dori grabbing Marlin's fin and leading him down into the dark while singing "Just keep swimming". Makes me laugh and smile every time. Also, the official meeting of the FA (fish anonymous) with Bruce the shark is hilarious. See, just thinking about it lifts my mood.

 

[malyla]

Larry Kudlow is my tonic. This bull market is going to make me rich - sorry for anyone not participating - but that's what makes the world go around.

I'm still keeping my tail!

 

[Birchtree]

The SPX off the March '09 lows had a gain of 80% to the April 23rd top in 2010 - and I caught every nickel. When you sell out due to panic and fear it becomes doubly hard to get back in for the next ride up. Never cut and run when everyone else is doing it. I felt the pain of a $1M hair cut on those lows but instead of running away I stepped in front of the train and dumped $800K down the rat hole on the bottom and ended making my losses back with a strong base still intact. Why did I do that - because I've done my homework regarding the psychology of the markets. Experience does mean something when your lifestyle is on the line.

 

[tsptalk]

Hi malyla -

I've noticed that you have been updating the Biz_cycle and your own account's allocation with a new IFT that matches the old. You don't really need to enter a new IFT in the autotracker if there is no change.

It doesn't seem to be causing I problem but I get a little worried about this monster program getting confused. I have had an issue with new users entering their initial allocation more than once, so when I saw this I was first glad that there doesn't seem to be a problem, but also a little nervous about what could happen.

If you continue to do it, please keep an eye on your return in the next day or so, if you don't mind, so we can try to catch any problem that may arise quickly.

(I posted this here instead of via PM for anyone else who may not know this.)

Thanks!
Tom

 

[malyla]

Hi malyla -

I've noticed that you have been updating the Biz_cycle and your own account's allocation with a new IFT that matches the old. You don't really need to enter a new IFT in the autotracker if there is no change.

It doesn't seem to be causing I problem but I get a little worried about this monster program getting confused. I have had an issue with new users entering their initial allocation more than once, so when I saw this I was first glad that there doesn't seem to be a problem, but also a little nervous about what could happen.

If you continue to do it, please keep an eye on your return in the next day or so, if you don't mind, so we can try to catch any problem that may arise quickly.

(I posted this here instead of via PM for anyone else who may not know this.)

Thanks!
Tom

Thanks Tom. I didn't know the de-listing rules had changed. I was just doing the quarterly update which will not change for the Biz_Cycle but may change if I get the courage to trade my account. Thanks again.

 

[malyla]

Just a quick update.

I show three IFT in the tracker for Jan but in reality I canceled the second one from I to S just before noon but I was unable to get on the internet to cancel it on this board. So, my trading start to 2011 is a little off but no worries as I'm sure it will all work out in the end.

I've have decided to try a little trading again (2007-2008 was my first attempt at it) instead of just sitting in F until June. I only made about 6% last year from F and I would like to maintain a 10%/yr return to meet my retirement goals (as was promised to me when I joined FERS - ok not 'promised' but the term 'expected' was used a lot and being a newbie to the stock market, I didn't understand that corrections could and would wipe out all gains - twice in the last decade). So...., lets see if I can get a 10% return this year from trading.

I hope everyone had a great holiday and are having a good start to the new year.

 

[Steel_Magnolia]

Good to hear from you, my friend, and best of luck this year!

 

[malyla]

Good to hear from you, my friend, and best of luck this year!

Same to you.

 

[malyla]

Made a move to F fund in the tracker. This move should get me even with my real account which is 0.23% higher than the tracker account and has me in F already (+1.39% this year). Just need the S fund to close in positive territory to get me close to even between the two accounts. I'll keep better records in the tracker from now on (feeling competitive :cheesy.

I really think after reading some of the threads and news headlines that we are ripe for a small correction, so staying in F until I see that happen or give up on it :notrust:.

Good luck everyone.

 

[malyla]

Today was not a good day for my TSP as the F fund dropped, but on the bright side suspicious my autotracker value is only off ~0.1% from the TSP account. <bah>.

I know the F fund is due for a bounce soon according to the charts, however, the reality of inflation may have it dropping further. All depends on the FED and the PPT (and overheating printing press).

 

[malyla]

The F fund is finally doing well, however, I'm starting to feel the stagflation blues. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation

The FED is starting to feel it too, but they will work (QE3) to prevent it. Banks will benefit but will the world follow suit????

Biz_Cycle says equities starting mid June. Still working this plan. I fund in June.

 

[malyla]

Move the Biz_Cycle account on the tracker to 100% I fund per the business cycle calendar. My account is also in stocks today.

Back to work....

 

[malyla]

Staying in the S-fund until we reach above 700 (Wilshire 4500).

The market seems to be contrary today. Can't understand the positive bias of the market when the news is so negative, but I'm following the chart action instead of listening to the news. Anyone hearing rumors about QEIII?

 

[Birchtree]

Negative headlines tend to produce the strongest advances in a bull market. The only thing we have to fear is no fear.

 

[malyla]

Staying in the S-fund until we reach above 700 (Wilshire 4500).

Met my goal (close enough anyway). IFT to 100% G COB today (still see F going negative). Protecting the seed corn.

 

[malyla]

Just wondering if you've been in the -G- fund....and if so, when (or what price) are you looking to go back in on?

Hi FireWeatherMet,

I am waiting for under 1280 on the S&P which we did get close to this week and I was tempted to go all in on Friday but a few other indicators still say that caution is warranted. The TA that I have learned from all the smart people on this board has given me two possible scenarios playing out. The news does put an extreme warning to any TA but it's my experience, since actively participating on this site, that TA usually wins out eventually (2008 being a systemic failure that proved the exception). So barring another systemic failure I see the following:

A completion of the complex head and shoulders with a downside target of 1170 (JTH has looked at this in his blog). OR
A short term rally to 1320ish before completion of the HS leading to the downside target of 1170.

This all requires that the HS is a real TA pattern that will play out. I believe it will as the FED pumping (QEs) has stopped, allowing a return to the more organic operation of trading (although the flash trading still add an element of cybernetics into the mix, it at least is not the android effects of QEs that was totally artificial for market behavior). If a few more of my indicators show movement towards a rally, I will jump in for a few days. I like the hit and run trading that will get me 4% at a trade for a goal of 12%-20%/year. It has me out more than in, but it's good for my health as I sleep better and it's easier to catch a few uptrends as I'm ok to lose a short term gain for a sure uptrend. So far this year I have ended each month with positive gains. We will see if I meet my goal by the end of the year.

 

[malyla]

Thats a nice trading strategy.

I too am waiting....this situation has me thinking differently than on past ones for several reasons.
First...the "chartist" in me usually looks at shorter term patterns in a 1-3 month period (H&S, crowning tops etc..). However, all of these things make more sense to me when I overlay the 20, 50, and 200 day EMA's.

Since I'm looking for a >4% trend that I can grab some gains from I usually don't look at the 20 day EMA. I use the BB at 50,2 and the 200 day EMA for turning points at they will supply a >4% trend.

What I did accidently a few days ago, in looking for similar patterns, was zooming OUT to the 5-year S&P chart. Something stuck out. It was (see Ameboa's board for chart I recently posted there)

A) Being at a 2-4 year high and flattening out for 3-4 months.
B) Having a very choppy pattern (in that 3-4 month window) with drops to the 200 day EMA twice within a 2 month period.
c) Having the VIX sharply rising during this time.

This seems to represent the end of a 2-4 year bull run, followed by an abrupt correction (10-20%) to an intermediate term bear market that continues for a few months to a few years. Reason why this has me concerned is that the weak GDP numbers, flattening jobs rate and a possible default and more importantly a lingering worry of when we get downgraded, leading to higher interest rates...has all the economic indicators that a bull market needs. There are no economic indicators that would support a bullish run back to our recent highs.

I did see that analysis and that is one of the reason I have caution about a possible rally here. I am expecting the 1170 target on the S&P to happen before Nov, but the question is will the seasonality of Oct-Jan allow a rally this year. It feels risky right now. I can wait and see.

Just my thoughts/concerns. I will be looking for an entrance this week too, but may hedge the bet by waiting for a big drop day Mon and throwing 50% in...then wait for the actual deal before throwing in the other 50%. There is a danger of a free-fall that no one is anticipating...which is when they typically happen.

Sounds like a good strategy. I just wish I had figured out my strategy sooner, but the spring was very busy in the 'real' world. I am on track to meet my goal which will put me at the 10% long term growth trend line. That will not make me a millionaire by retirement, but 3/4 of a millionaire will make me happy.

See what you think. Be careful. :worried:

Careful is my middle name

 

[malyla]

Looks like 1180 is "in". You going in...or holding out?

Could be a wild ride today...might finish either at 1160 or 1320...depending on the news.

I'm flirting with 50% in....but will wait and see over the next few minutes.

I'm still getting indications that caution is warranted. I think I'll stay out this week. I'll look at getting in on Friday.

 

[BigJohn]

Your decision to not go in today could be a wise move. The "herd" bought in today. The herd is usually wrong.

Do you really think so? The "herd" that I think bought in today were those non-TSPers who started buying when the markets opened hoping to cash in on the relief rally. I do think those did make a bad decision. If by "herd bought in" you mean those on TSP who moved in and will purchase shares at the closing price, I think that play is a good one (obviously so, or I wouldn't have done it!)

However, I went in 50% -C-.
Close enough to my 1275 buy in target...and being down 6 days in a row (Dow 7 days in a row) has only been exceeded by 8 or 9 day drop in the Fall of 2008 (in recent memory).
Will keep the other 50% of my powder dry and wait another 1-3 days also. When trying to time re-entry in a sharply falling market that approaches the 200 day EMA it seems to make sense not to try and catch a falling knife in one shot (ie guess). We might see the bottom today at around 1275...or we could fall to say 1240 in another few days...I feel that its better to use 2 separate buy in days to average out a very good (but not perfect) buy in price and minimizing a big loss day if you don't time the bottom just right.

Was thinking of the I fund as something that could be a bit more stable than the C/S as the other 50%. Reason being that as soon as a deal is done in Congresss...speculation of a "downgrade" in US AAA rating might hurt US equities more than international ones...thus forming a strategy of maybe quickly exiting the C fund...but leaving 50% in the -I- and letting it ride a bit further into the month. At least thats the preliminary plan....and as always during turbulent times...plans can change quickly.:worried:

I like your reasoning on the I fund. I hope the deal gets done later today, the foreign markets explode and I can bail in the a.m....not that you were curious about what I was going to do.

But I admire your patience. Good luck to you.

Best of Luck !

BigJohn

 

[DakotaKid]

So I popped in the indicators you mentioned... We've broken the 200 ema yesterday, and the lower BB today. Looks like a time to be on the sidelines.... would you agree?