FundSurfer account talk

[FundSurfer]

The dice came up snake eyes! Ouch, that 20% in the S-fund is gonna leave a mark. I wouldn't want to be in the I-fund tommorrow. Be interesting to see how the internationals react to the US market dive. My bet is not good.

 

[nnuut]

Looks like a good day to hit "Happy Hour", I'm gone, be back later when I'm in a better mood! Hic!!!

 

[nnuut]

Hic!

 

[FundSurfer]

This up and down market has been classic buy the red sell the green. With everyone talking stall on Friday, I'd almost expect to see Thursday be red in anticipation as people begin to sell in advance and short sellers begin to set up and then Friday take off as as people buy the bargins and the shorts get squeezed.

I think I'll wait to buy back into the market, maybe tommorrow.

Ping-pong anyone?

(Note to self: Buy red, sell green)

 

[FundSurfer]

Ping: Market up 1% in the morning
Pong: Market gives it all back by 10:00
Ping: Market dashes back forward and retakes days high by noon.
Pong: Market fades back to even by 3:00
Ping: Market dives toward market close to negaitve territory

This is sure some choppy water. I wonder what tommorrow will bring.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

question is.. "where will the market be at Friday's close?"..too late to worry about tomorrow

 

[FundSurfer]

question is.. "where will the market be at Friday's close?"..

It is anybody's guess. I'm still thinking it will be a red day tommorrow, although it might start green.

 

[FundSurfer]

The I fund is going to be hit hard and I'm betting will bounce on Monday. The C and S funds have recovered from morning drop and headed green. I expect them to turn to red this afternoon. I don't think we'll get a pop on Friday because of the terrorist plot will un-nerve a bunch of investors and keep people from jumping on a band wagon. Just my thoughts. I went 60% I and 40% G to hedge my bets.

 

[FundSurfer]

I bailed out to 100% G cause I'm expecting the market to take a little rest. This is also Friday of options expiration and we could see related selling today or Monday. I'll wait till Monday to see if it is time to get back in. S-fund is lagging and I'll probably weight a little more in that direction.

 

[Fivetears]

IMHO... the last week of August should make for 3 nice cliffs to hang glide from.
We'll just have to pick one... or two. Maybe do a little of all three.

 

[FundSurfer]

Looks like cliff #1 in the making. Housing down turn has makets headed red. I'm not going to jump in too early. I expect overseas to follow tommorrow (down). Tommorrow might be a better day to get back in the market depending on what this afternoon brings. I'm staying on the sidelines.

 

[FundSurfer]

Today's charts are not inspiring me to be a buyer. I think I'll spend another day on the sidelines.

 

[FundSurfer]

I'm leaning toward moving some money into the I-fund this morning and staying away from the C&S. My current thinking has to do with Friday. If we move into the market, we will be in the market for Monday which means we'll have the weekend ahead of us. The tropical depression could upgrade to a hurricane headed toward the heart of the gulf by Monday. That would likely send oil prices higher and raise economic fears short term on Monday. Oil going up is actually good for the I-fund short term since the I-fund has several oil stocks. The value of the dollar could be headed lower but that can depend on what Berny says at 10:00. The overseas markets will be ahead of the US market and if the US goes red would follow on Tuesday. Maybe I'm over analyzing and double thinkin' stuff but that's the way I'm leaning. -- S-fund is looking pretty beat up.... I need to check if Wheels is still in the S-fund....It'll be time to buy when he bails... (Sorry Dave, couldn't resist.)

 

[Fireant]

Your thinking is very similar to mine... however I'm worried about the end of the month ultimatum with Iran and the repurcussions in addition to all the other geo-political messes...all in all this looks like it might be shaping up into the perfect "ernesto/economic" storm and until I can somewhat figure it out I am going to preserve and sit in the G... your analysis on the oil play is dead-on but my overriding concern is the u.s. market... I believe it needs a serious correction and concerned the internationals will follow... I love the I fund over any of the funds at the present moment but just waiting for the entry level and don't want to jump too soon... anyway just my 2 cents... good luck... DA FIREANT>>>

 

[FundSurfer]

I did go 40% IFT to I-fund. We may see the dollar slide some more and overseas goi up. I'm not completely convinced which is why only 40%.

 

[FundSurfer]

Moved 20% more into I-fund. Basically I think there is a positive bias for I-fund for tommorrow, but not enough to go 100% I like many are doing today. Overseas may follow US market move occuring today. (Might also reverse tommorrow.) Generally I'm bullish on I-fund so buying the recent dip makes sense anyway. I put 20% into F because I think the G-fund will pay the penny today and F has been trending up at a pace that exceeds the G. The lower oil prices lowers inflation risk and lessens chance of Fed increase and slowing economic outlook increases chance of Fed pullback (I don't think it will happen but those that think it possible will increase bonds). I'm 20% G, 20% F, 60% I as of COB.

 

[FundSurfer]

I went into a conservative spread of funds. 40%G, 25%C, 25%S, 10%I. This spreading of funds is how I deal with not knowing what direction the market will take. I think this market is very volitile and thus the conservative slant toward G. I think I-fund will give back gains tommorrow. Hopefully I can get out without getting smacked by an FV that takes away todays gains based on a guess by Barclay that I-fund will go down tommorrow (even though that's my guess). I've put some into C and S because I think they may increase prior to the holiday. As to to taking money out of the F-fund, I'm not very good as short term predictions for F so I'll go to the safety of G.

 

[Wheels]

Hopefully I can get out without getting smacked by an FV that takes away todays gains based on a guess by Barclay that I-fund will go down tommorrow (even though that's my guess).

On the contrary, I think you (and sugar) are going to steal some FV tonight. The dollar fell pretty hard after the Fed minutes.

It's been hard enough catching you two what with my own goofs. But it's going to be downright impossible if you guys keep getting these gifts.

Dave
<><

 

[FundSurfer]

I don't get it. The Fed, if anything, sounded hawkish on inflation and if anything more like they were considering another rate hike. This should have sent the dollar higher, not lower. The only explanation is that the market was figuring on a hike and the Fed comments were not hawkish enough. Sell the news? No complaints on my part, I'd be nice to get some extra FV after all the ones who have gone against me. If I get one my way it will only be because of S&S's luck with FV's out weighing my bad luck with FV's.

 

[ebbnflow]

On the contrary, I think you (and sugar) are going to steal some FV tonight. The dollar fell pretty hard after the Fed minutes.

Yep, we should definitely get an FV today. I noticed the Barclay people being gun-shy a couple of times. Maybe they were getting a lot of hate mail from TSP'ers.