FundSurfer account talk

[Pilgrim]

Fundsurfer,

G is clearly the place to be today, but what about tomorrow?? European markets are down almost 1% and the dollar is basically flat. I am sitting in G and thinking hard about going all I-fund for tomorrow. Wanna bet on a bounce back up?

 

[FundSurfer]

I'm stepping back in early trying to anticipate a bounce on Monday. Hopefully it isn't too early. A less risky approach would be to wait for signs of positive and then react.

C and S funds are at or slightly below recent trading channels. I-fund was above its channel and this pull back is just bringing it back into the channel. I think the dollar has another 4-5% to drop. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts at the end of today.

50%S, 50%I at COB for Monday.

 

[The_Technician]

I'm stepping back in early trying to anticipate a bounce on Monday. Hopefully it isn't too early. A less risky approach would be to wait for signs of positive and then react.

C and S funds are at or slightly below recent trading channels. I-fund was above its channel and this pull back is just bringing it back into the channel. I think the dollar has another 4-5% to drop. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts at the end of today.

50%S, 50%I at COB for Monday.

I'm expecting some more correction.....you sure you wanna keep deaf ears.....????

Always consider ones abilities.....and try to know what they may be doing.....because it may be beneficial....:blink:

 

[mlk_man]

Looks like Techy is in the recruiting business these days.

Like I've said before, every broken clock is correct twice a day..........

 

[Pilgrim]

Enjoying your loss on Friday eh MM......boy, that was a real dooooozie..!!

I don't generally get involved in these unpleasant exchanges, but this seems out of line, not only because I got hurt Friday but because its real bad for the board. We all suffer losses if we choose to play and I think that explicitly rubbing it in should be strongly discouraged. Too much of this and the board will fall apart.

 

[FundSurfer]

I've got real broad shoulders and can carry the load. I bought on Friday knowing full well (as indicated in my comments that Monday could as easily be down as up). I did buy cheaper than I sold so compared to buy and hold, it was a victory to me.

I'm not sure I understand Techy myself. He is currently about as low on the list of returns as you can get and he is dishing out advice like there is no tommorrow. It is customary to establish some credibility prior to proclaiming yourself to be an expert. Admittedly I've poked a few jabs at Techy, but they were an attempt to suggest that either a) consider the possibility that your methodology could use some adjustment [and to his credit he has said that he has learned a few things and could use some fine tuning] and b) to make sure others who read the message board are aware of the source and track record of those making pronouncements and at the same time make Techy aware of how others percieve his post.

It seems Techy has taken my post as more of a personal attack and after reading my post, that's justified. My post did have a certain edge and did point to what is probably a big sore spot for Techy, his return. If he wants to give a little back in my account thread, that is fine and better here than other places on the board. If our places were reversed, I keep quiet a little longer till I had more to show for myself. If he makes great strides with his interfund transfers and moves, I'll be one of the first to pat him on the back.

 

[Griffin]

I'm not sure I understand Techy myself. He is currently about as low on the list of returns as you can get and he is dishing out advice like there is no tommorrow. It is customary to establish some credibility prior to proclaiming yourself to be an expert. Admittedly I've poked a few jabs at Techy, but they were an attempt to suggest that either a) consider the possibility that your methodology could use some adjustment [and to his credit he has said that he has learned a few things and could use some fine tuning] and b) to make sure others who read the message board are aware of the source and track record of those making pronouncements and at the same time make Techy aware of how others percieve his post.

Fundsurfer, do not be too diplomatic, Tech goes beyond the scope of alternative viewpoints, and those that would consider his advice need to be aware of how poor his performance has been. You, me and everyone else has just as much capability to go into capital preservation mode as Tech does, however, he does not have as much to protect, and that is something to be considered.

 

[Show-me]

:laugh: :nuts: :cheesy:

Just not enough smiles in the world.

 

[nnuut]

LOOK! Tech has his own technique for losing his money. We all do our thing, and it's nobodys business how somebody invests their money. Just read his posts and shut up!!! I like all of you, but you are getting on my nerves!!:nuts: :nuts:

 

[FundSurfer]

Ouch! That hurt. Now I'm in noman's land. The market has dropped further than I thought it would yesterday when I jumped overboard. Now we look to have a bounce but I can't take advantage since it could be short lived. I think I'll just sit and wait for the next trend to become clear. Could mean I miss a really good bounce but that's the breaks.

 

[FundSurfer]

C-fund and S-fund have retraced to where I'd consider the bottom of a mid-cycle down. This has been long over due. I'm thinking we should climb from here. Likely to be some chop but I don't think we'll be able to time the chop very well.

I'm avoiding the I-fund for now since it's trend is less clear. Dollar index appears like it may have changed directions at least short term. I expect the foreign markets to bounce but until dollar direction is more clear, to me it is less risky to be in C & S. I-fund could end up out performing, but my goals include risk and gains combined. I’ve moved to 50% C and 50% S. My targets are $14.20 for C and $17.8 for S. I will spread to the I-fund if its trend changes and looks to advance quicker.

 

[FundSurfer]

Revising my targets to c @ $14.00 and S @ $17.4 -- so much chop. I will bail quickly if the market goes red a couple days in a row and goes below my buy-in point.

 

[FundSurfer]

Both targets have been reached. Didn't think they would reach today. I will be transferring to G at the first sign of weakness, which I expect tommorrow. Hopefully, the market will not drop back down like a rock. I expect we'll get about a $0.20 (1%) retracement once it begins.

 

[Griffin]

I'm a bit concerned that today came too far too fast and will ignite some selling. In fact, I have been seriously considering playing the action, because it could lead to a retest of the 24th.

Why do you think it will only retrace 1% and not retest?

 

[FundSurfer]

I'm a bit concerned that today came too far too fast and will ignite some selling.

Agreed. If we had more flexibility with our accounts, I would have sold this afternoon. I'm actually hoping for at least a sideways day tommorrow - I'd probably transfer.

Why do you think it will only retrace 1% and not retest?

Actually, I should have said minimum 1%. My estimate is based upon my expectation of the amplitude of the chop figuring in a little cushion since we can't time very well. I typically wait for there to be signs of positive before getting back into the market, so if it drops like a rock I'll wait longer. I don't have to hit the peaks and valleys exactly to meet my goal.

What goes up, must come down. The hard part for me is being patient.

 

[FundSurfer]

OK, today qualifies as "dropped like a rock". My targets have been reached. I'll be looking to get back into the market with some signs of life. The question is how long before we bounce. I think it will be fairly quickly and I'll probably get back into the market tommorrow unless we have another drop like a rock day which I don't expect.

 

[FundSurfer]

50% S, 50% I ... betting on a bounce. The I-fund is VERY risky right now, but I think we'll see the beginning of a bounce in US this afternoon with foriegn following tommorrow. I also think the dollar will decline after this bounce because of European Central Banks raising rates will drop dollar in relation to Euro. Japan is also overdue for some relief.

 

[FundSurfer]

Mistake! This drop has taken us below support level and could go deeper before going back up. I stepped aside back to G-fund with some thrown at F-fund as well. It isn't about what we are doing today but likely what we are going to do tommorrow. If we have gone to a new low, we should not V right back up. There will be opportunity to get back in at near the bottom, even if it is formed today.

 

[FundSurfer]

The risk taker in me wants to get back into this market figuring that we have to be near a bottom. The level headed side says, you've been here before a jumped in trying to anticipate instead of waiting for postive market moves to give a signal. After a couple of mistakes costing some losses, this time I'll listen to the level headed side and wait.

If I was in I-fund today, I would bail out. I expect the US drop today will drag down foriegn stocks tommorrow. S-fund might rebound but might not also...

 

[FundSurfer]

The Risk-taker in me won out. I guess I diversified into C,S, & I to mitigate the risk somewhat. It looks like we are getting to long term valley of a long term trading range. I'm thinking that this area will act as an area of support. I may be early (wouldn't be the first time). I was encourage by the move positive heading toward noon. Hopefully this will bode well for tommorrow. Hopefully the CPI tommorrow will not torpedo the market and instead start a rally. How's that for optimistic?