FundSurfer account talk

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I'm getting back out. I don't trust this market and I can always get back in if more positive shows up. I-fund will be a nice place to be if today can stay positive.
 
I started to get into the market this morning in a diversified way (30C, 35S, 35I) thinking the markets were due for an uptick. Looking at the morning movement, stocks have started strong to the positive. It may not keep this level of positive for the day but this could signal foriegn markets to move higher tommorrow. I therefore shifted more of my allocation into I-fund. The dollar seems to have dropped slightly. The market maybe anticipating language from the fed that signals we are nearing an end to rate hikes. I think the fed will give us this language (they have given this language several times already which started mini-rally's only to talk out of the other side of their mouth days later.) I therefore switched to 20C, 20S, and 60I. I guess I'm not confident enough to go 100% I although I do think the I-fund will outperform all funds tommorrow.
 
I was thinking the same thing as what Tom had in his comments today. (That's actually a little scary since Tom seems to be early in his predictions lately.) Also I-fund looks to be down so a good day to buy I. C&S down early but who knows where they'll end up. Hopefully they'll turn around by days end an lead another leg up.
 
Probably more damage will be done today based on early indications (Pre-market and overseas). I think that I will ride this one out as I don't see us crashing to completely new lows. I can't move close to deadline today so I've got to decide now, and I guess I've decided to stay put for today.
 
Well, I didn't think we'd go this low. If I was out of the market I'd be looking for any positive to signal getting back in the market. Right now I'm staying put since I think the chances of turning around are greater than the chances of going down. I'm just going to continue riding it out.
 
Foriegn markets should follow the US today and the dollar could/should fall some more. This sets I up as a good place to be tommorrow. This is a high risk move since world events could change things around and the day isn't over yet. A late day reversal could get the I-fund hammered tommorrow (FV today in favor of current holders of I-fund that gets taken away tommorrow is likely).
 
Going 50%G, 50%S. I expect S might bounce tommorrow and I got out of I because it is likely to get whacked. I may move back into I tommorrow.
 
Fundsurfer, I have a question for you. You say in your post that your going to put your money in this fund one day and another fund the next day. How do you allocate your funds so fast? I go on the www.tsp.gov page and it seems like it takes a while to do interfund transfers, for example, a few days. :confused:
 
To see how to do an interfund transfer, see the link below:

http://www.tsptalk.com/help.html

Here's the skinny. If you make an interfund transfer before noon, the transfer takes place using the share prices at the end of that day. The next day you are then in your new allocation. If you make a transfer at just after noon, your transfer does not occur until COB the next business day. That is why you will see a flurry of activity in the member allocation thread before noon. Everyone is beating the deadline and then posting their new allocation for the purposes of the tracker.

Hope that helps and welcome to tsptalk.
 
I went 25% C, 50% S, and 25% I at COB Monday. I'm thinking I will stay here for a little while. This market has been acting very unpredictable lately. And if you can find any trend, that trend is that there really isn't an established trend. Right now you might do well to sell green days and buy red days since there has been sooooo much chop. I haven't been able to stay ahead of the chop which is why I have the spread allocation. Yesterday the Small Caps gained, lost, and regained a percent. That is chop that is happening too quickly for us to be able to react. Looking at the charts, the S-fund seems to have been hit the hardest in the latest pull back which is why I have a higher amount of S-fund. The dollar seems to have a slight up trend but I think it will be dropping again soon. I'll like it a whole lot better when the market gains a little more predictability.
 
Forget what I said yesterday about staying put. We've had several up days in a row. I expect a little profit taking and thus pullback. (I don't know how much of a pullback so I'll let the market tell me when to get back in.) I also look ahead to tommorrows economic releases and predict that news may be slightly good and thus sell the news. I'll be looking to get back in with a diversified allocation shortly since overall I'm bullish. I'm just hoping to sell a green day so I can buy back on a red day.
 
Although I've missed 1-2% move up, I'm still going to sit tight. This market has been moving down as quickly as it moves up. Jumping in now is likely to get you whipsawed. I agree with I think it was Wheels who said that the move up in anticipation of a rate hike stop by the fed is setting up up for a sell the news move down. We may also have a larger euphoric upward move when many of the less active traders see the fed stop as a time to get invested and a market move up. I can wait for a pull back to get back into the market. Who knows, the Fed may raise rates one more time and give a more difinitive signal that they are about to pause. That would likely add volitility as the market tries to figure out how to react to that.

What goes up will go down.
 
I made a late move. The drop looks like it might be a good buy and I think the Fed may stop and will have a good jump in the market. I look to get out quickly. I'm still bearish for short term.
 
FundSurfer said:
I made a late move. The drop looks like it might be a good buy and I think the Fed may stop and will have a good jump in the market. I look to get out quickly. I'm still bearish for short term.
Click to expand...

FS, how short do you expect this rally to be? Are you going to bail today, or do you expect the top to form and hold through the next couple of days?
 
It would be really tough to bail today since you would have to decide before any Fed news is announced. However, I do expect a euphoric rise following a Fed decision to stop followed by a reversal when people begin to digest what the Fed has actually said and reality of oil/Middle East sets in. I actually haven't decided yet.
 
I decided that I'm more comfortable in G for tommorrow than being in stocks. I expect the market to turn around shortly and I'd rather wait on a better buy-in point. I'm hopeful that my one day gamble pays off and the market takes off following a Fed announce of pause. It was a gamble, but at least a well thought out gamble.
 
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