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Bailing Out...

I-fund and C-fund seem close to the top of their trading ranges. I had S-fund at mid range but I can think a change in trading range may be forming which would put S at top of range. Also since I think C and I are high possible for going down, they would likely drag S with them. Safety on the sidelines until the murkyness clears. Also, I think that traders try to anticipate a move down like last year in March which means you have to anticipate the anticipators. Last year had a big move down a couple weeks into March. Add to this that several people on this board whose opinion I value are also moving toward more conservative positions, and that add up to a move to G.

I put 50% into F because I think it is more likely to go up on Monday than not. Have to admit this isn't a system move for F since it hasn't been be having well lately but rather a guess... :eek:
 
Got back in...

Basically the funds have dropped to the bottom of the trading range and then showed some positive signs. I'm being a little more aggressive than I probably should. I'd like to see a couple days of positive signs (which C did show). In retrospect, I probably should have waited since the S-fund only had one positive day and the I-fund should be positive today. Today's down day could mean a further slide negative. I can't complain too much because I did step aside just in time to avoid this last big drop and thus can afford to be a little agressive getting back in.

I've attached a graph showing the trading ranges I'm looking at.
 
Getting out of F

Thanks Five Tears... Not sure if that is good news or bad for I-fund. If it keeps the dollar moving up that will hurt the I-fund.

I'm moving out of F-fund because I may have limited access to internet next week. I therefore went to a very diverse in stocks position. The market may go down some more but I've already avoided over a percent loss in this move so I'm counting myself lucky and getting back in knowing that the market will come back up.

If I have access to the internet, here is what I will do. Two consecutive down days and I'd step aside back to G and wait for positive. To the upside, my targets to get out are $14.15 for C, $17.4 for S, and $18.7 for I. After reaching those targets, I'd bail to G following any weakness. I don't expect to reach those targets next week.

Will be 33C, 33S, 34I at COB Friday.
 
Profit taking I

I expect I to be up today but profit taking to occur also. Target reached. C&S have a ways to go so I'm 50% C & 50% S at COB today/

I'm on dial-up so that's it.
 
I bailed to G last Friday because it looked like stocks were stalling at the top of the trading channel.

Today I'm going 100% I because of a special case. The foriegn markets are down big at noon and dollar was headed up. This is a double whammy for I-fund negative. Also American markets took off at about 10:30 which is too late for foriegn stocks to react for the day. I expect them to follow the US stocks and rally tommorrow. Admittedly this is a big gamble since this is the I-fund we are talking about. As much as I've followed the I-fund, you'd think I know better but I am actually following the pattern I've seen before. A "fair valuation" could throw things off but we will see.
 
Surprise, surprise, surprise.....

Foriegn markets turned around late, and dollar also turned around. Could actually be positive day for I-fund. The EFA is pointed up which combined with upward pointed C & S, if continued through the day, will mean a positive bias start to tommorrow. I'd planned to bail to G and accept a loss for a bad gamble but I guess I'll stay another day in the I-fund.

I don't have a target since we are above my trading range. My target is signs of weakness. A day or two of down and I'll quickly bail out of I-fund. We are in uncharted charts.
 
Bailing out to G-fund

Should have done this yesterday. The market is at the top of a trading range and can't make up its mind if it will go higher or fall back into the range. I thought we might be seeing the market deciding to go higher it looks to be going backward again. I'm moving to G-fund till things become more clear.

Foriegn markets are mixed with slight upside bias. Dollar is headed higher which is bad for I-fund. Since the EFA is headed sharply lower, I'm bailing out and hoping that the impact is felt tommorrow and not today.

100% G @ COB
 
Re: Bailing out to G-fund

FundSurfer said:
Should have done this yesterday. .... I'm moving to G-fund ...
Click to expand...
Don't hit your self over the head. On Wednesday morning I thought the I-fund would close higher on Thursday also, but I didn't want to take the chance and bailed out to the G-fund.
 
Re: Bailing out to G-fund

Gilligan said:
Don't hit your self over the head. On Wednesday morning I thought the I-fund would close higher on Thursday also, but I didn't want to take the chance and bailed out to the G-fund.
Click to expand...

Yeah, we all have our good and bad days. Heck, if we could accurately predict the market we would all be super rich!:D

What I like about this site is that the majority of us give one another moral support when needed and don't shove "bad moves" in each other's faces.

ONLY the good ones... that WE make!:p :D

Otherwise, we're a rather swell group of investors.:)
 
My system has some signals for getting into funds even if at the top of a trading range. They are based on persistant movement which signals Bull moves. I'm getting into S and I because they have triggered and C has not, although if todays gains continue C could trigger as well. Because I'm at the top of a trading range, I will also be quick to exit.

Dollar index shows dollar dropping today and I hope that continues for a few days.
 
I'm in a funny position and have a hard choice to make. I'm got a sell signal but the target to get back in could be reached today/tommorrow. I've got spotty internet access so I'm inclined to just stay invested and wait it out and not try to time the market too close. I agree with Birchtree that with so many pundits talking bear that is probably contrarian indicator. The problem is how long will the lag last before the switch back to upward.

If I was out of stocks, I'd be getting back in at 14.05 for C, 17.5 for S, and 19.2 for I. I would look for some sign of positive or at least lateral movement before pulling the trigger to make sure we do not slip past support. At this point those will also be my targets for getting out. We pass those points and the market will take us another 1-2% lower before the next support.

Too bad we can't set up automatic stops and buys with tsp.gov. That would be cool. Oh well. I'm still 50%S and 50% I, hoping the bleeding stops soon.
 
Need to be in the market.

We are at the bottom of all trading channels for stocks. CS & I all look to rebound this week if the trend is to continue. I missed getting out at the top and rode the trend down but I'm hoping for a rebound and for the trend to continue. See attached charts for trends.

The trends are not all the same. The C fund has been gaining $0.04 per week average since November; S fund has been gaining at $0.10 per week average for a little over a month and I-fund has been gaining at $0.19 per week for a little over a month. I don't expect the S&I to continue doing this long but I'm gonna ride the wave as long as possible.

If any fund breaks the trend, I'm bailing quickly.

I'm sticking with 50% S and 50% I. I may more more into I-fund to 75%I and 25%S if rebound becomes more obvious.
 
I'm planning on bailing out on weakness

I've attached a graph of each of the funds and the trading range. All funds went back to previous highs. From here to the top of the trading range, anywhere a drop could happen. Upper end targets would be $14.35 for C, $18.2 for S, and $20.10 for I.

At this point, I'm looking for a sign of weakness as a signal to bail back to G-fund. I think we may set new highs through the next day or so before falling back.

I'm not touching F-fund, it isn't worth the risk since it is trending down. It may trend up with talk of interest rate hikes being done but I've got to see a change before I'm a believer.

The foriegn markets are all up this morning and dollar may bounce a little. I expect an up day for the I-fund. I think I-fund is owed a little right now so I'm not sure when I'll get out.
 
I had an attack of chicken. I've passed my first targets and was looking for weakness to bail. I see markets again going up strong so I'm headed to the sideline. I expect I-fund to do well today but for the dollar to begin to strengthen from here. The S-fund will set new highs but should experiance profit taking.
 
Moving to 30% C, 35% S, 35% I.

C and S are at the bottom of trading channels, they are poised to move up.

I-fund - the day started out really red. Should rebound tommorrow. The dollar is dropping like a rock (right now) following Berny's comments to congress. You have to think this might trigger a FV but hopefully not and dollar loss will get figured in tommorrow. I can only hope.

I've spread my risk to all three stock funds cause this market has been acting jittery.

Surf's up! :cool:

(I'll post my target's tommorrow.)
 
I-fund went above its trading channel yesterday, above target, today likely profit taking but I'd need to have bailed yesterday to avoid. Hopefully today won't be too bad.

C-fund near top of trading channel, target reached, I would normally wait for weakness to bail (and we may see some today on profit taking), but spotty internet access has me getting out while I can.

S-fund has room to go up, however, the whole market seems near a top. It could bring down the S because of that. I debated staying in the S-fund but decided against since I may not be able to react quickly over the next few days.

Bailed to 100% G. I don't like the looks of the F-fund which is trending down.
 
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