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FundSurfer account talk
- Thread starter FundSurfer
- Start date
FundSurfer
Well-known member
imported post
Have no idea on the width. I didn't notice anything different.
Kind of hard to get used to posting in two places. Life used to be simpler.
Onward and upward!
Have no idea on the width. I didn't notice anything different.
Kind of hard to get used to posting in two places. Life used to be simpler.
Onward and upward!
FundSurfer
Well-known member
What goes up....
.... must come down....
Had some nice gains since 12/30, time to retreat to safety.
If you look at days of the week, Mondays are the weakest. I think investors digest what happened last week and take some profits on Monday.
100% G as of COB 1/6
I think this trend will continue and will not likely be on sidelines long.
.... must come down....
Had some nice gains since 12/30, time to retreat to safety.
If you look at days of the week, Mondays are the weakest. I think investors digest what happened last week and take some profits on Monday.
100% G as of COB 1/6
I think this trend will continue and will not likely be on sidelines long.
FundSurfer
Well-known member
Retreat
Moved to 50%G, 25%C, 25%S.
See comments in account thread.
Moved to 50%G, 25%C, 25%S.
See comments in account thread.
FundSurfer
Well-known member
Move to G
I-fund closed 1/26 at 18.45 and I expect it to close over 18.5 for today. The I-fund has a slight positive bias from yesterday late plus a positive for today. That should surpass my target of 18.5. I-fund could keep going but I'm following my system - what goes up will come down. A target to get back in would be for the fund to fall below 18.3 and then show a positive day. Dollar has been on the rise last couple days in anticipation of fed move probably. I'll wait.
S-fund closed at 17.18. My target was 17.4. I've revised that target to 17.3. Based on 11:00 estimate, if we closed right now we would be at 17.27. Very close to my estimate. Add to that the Monday negative bias and the fact the G-fund should pay Monday or Tuesday and that spells sell. I will wait for the fund to drop back to 17 before getting back in after positive day following a drop.
100% G as of COB 1/27.
Milkman - I was in heap big hurry, had to go. You got cohonnes going into S-fund on up Friday. I thought that was against your system?
I-fund closed 1/26 at 18.45 and I expect it to close over 18.5 for today. The I-fund has a slight positive bias from yesterday late plus a positive for today. That should surpass my target of 18.5. I-fund could keep going but I'm following my system - what goes up will come down. A target to get back in would be for the fund to fall below 18.3 and then show a positive day. Dollar has been on the rise last couple days in anticipation of fed move probably. I'll wait.
S-fund closed at 17.18. My target was 17.4. I've revised that target to 17.3. Based on 11:00 estimate, if we closed right now we would be at 17.27. Very close to my estimate. Add to that the Monday negative bias and the fact the G-fund should pay Monday or Tuesday and that spells sell. I will wait for the fund to drop back to 17 before getting back in after positive day following a drop.
100% G as of COB 1/27.
Milkman - I was in heap big hurry, had to go. You got cohonnes going into S-fund on up Friday. I thought that was against your system?
FundSurfer
Well-known member
Not quite yet time to get in for me.
I said target of 18.3 for I and 17 for S. I didn't say a target for C but my target for C has been reached. However, I'm not jumping under a falling knife trying to guess a bottom. Got too many burn marks that have taught me a lesson for that. I'll move into C-fund if it begins moving up. A bunch of analysis are touting Large Caps as the place to be because they have all gotten better P/E ratios than they have had for a long time and have scaled back their debt from the low interest rates the past few years. C-fund is lagging and well over due. I think I-fund is also a good place to be after a little more pullback. Might get back into all three funds next week if we see an end to the drop.
For now I'm sticking to 100% G.
I said target of 18.3 for I and 17 for S. I didn't say a target for C but my target for C has been reached. However, I'm not jumping under a falling knife trying to guess a bottom. Got too many burn marks that have taught me a lesson for that. I'll move into C-fund if it begins moving up. A bunch of analysis are touting Large Caps as the place to be because they have all gotten better P/E ratios than they have had for a long time and have scaled back their debt from the low interest rates the past few years. C-fund is lagging and well over due. I think I-fund is also a good place to be after a little more pullback. Might get back into all three funds next week if we see an end to the drop.
For now I'm sticking to 100% G.
FundSurfer
Well-known member
All targets met...looking for entry
All my targets have been met looking for a sign the downward movement is over before jumping in. I'd like to see a couple up or sideways days as a signal, but my trigger is getting ichy. I usually get burned when I anticipate too much.
Time will tell if I feel lucky...
All my targets have been met looking for a sign the downward movement is over before jumping in. I'd like to see a couple up or sideways days as a signal, but my trigger is getting ichy. I usually get burned when I anticipate too much.
Time will tell if I feel lucky...
FundSurfer
Well-known member
I jumped in this morning....but
I'm back in but on shaky ground. I will bail to G quickly if we don't get some bounce. This morning it looked like a solid up day. The late day down turn turned today to be slightly negative which isn't too bad, but I'd rather see some positive upward movement. I'll give it a few days unless the market drops like a rock.
I'm back in but on shaky ground. I will bail to G quickly if we don't get some bounce. This morning it looked like a solid up day. The late day down turn turned today to be slightly negative which isn't too bad, but I'd rather see some positive upward movement. I'll give it a few days unless the market drops like a rock.
W
Wizard
Guest
Today was a reversal day. 
FundSurfer
Well-known member
Bailing toward safety..
My targets for CSI are $14.10, $17.30, and $18.70 in the short term, long term C&S down through March, I-fund who knows? The C&S are currently $14.01 and $17.18 and showing weakness. The I-fund is moving into a stall because dollar is moving upward at a rate similar to foriegn markets. When this happens, I'm not confident of a move up from here. I've decided to bail to G&F because C&S are close to the target and it looks like the market could pause. I'll watch for signs of life in the I-fund and get back into I-fund then since it has the most to gain at this point (probably when the dollar uptrend turns around). I'm in F as well as G because the anticipated rate hikes may have a positive effect and the F-fund is over due.
My targets for CSI are $14.10, $17.30, and $18.70 in the short term, long term C&S down through March, I-fund who knows? The C&S are currently $14.01 and $17.18 and showing weakness. The I-fund is moving into a stall because dollar is moving upward at a rate similar to foriegn markets. When this happens, I'm not confident of a move up from here. I've decided to bail to G&F because C&S are close to the target and it looks like the market could pause. I'll watch for signs of life in the I-fund and get back into I-fund then since it has the most to gain at this point (probably when the dollar uptrend turns around). I'm in F as well as G because the anticipated rate hikes may have a positive effect and the F-fund is over due.
FundSurfer
Well-known member
I-fund showing signs of life.
I said I was watching for signs of life in I-fund. Yesterday was positive, today looks positive as well. I'm not totally convinced yet which is why I'm going 50% G, 50% I. I'll increase my I-fund again tommorrow if it continues up. My target for I-fund would be $18.70 and then bail at weakness.
I said I was watching for signs of life in I-fund. Yesterday was positive, today looks positive as well. I'm not totally convinced yet which is why I'm going 50% G, 50% I. I'll increase my I-fund again tommorrow if it continues up. My target for I-fund would be $18.70 and then bail at weakness.
FundSurfer
Well-known member
Dollar showing signs of weakness, more life for I-fund
I moved all in to the I-fund. I'm seeing more postive signs I was looking for. The dollar looks to be slowing and needs a rest, today might actually show dollar index down. A couple positives in a row and the best technicals in terms of up potiential. I am all in for the I-fund. 100% I.
I moved all in to the I-fund. I'm seeing more postive signs I was looking for. The dollar looks to be slowing and needs a rest, today might actually show dollar index down. A couple positives in a row and the best technicals in terms of up potiential. I am all in for the I-fund. 100% I.
FundSurfer
Well-known member
Spreading the vulnerability to S and I
The S-fund currently has room to move upward in addition to the I-fund. In fact the S-fund may even have a little more room to go up. I'm staying away from the C-fund since it is at the upper end of the trading range. It may go higher but should head lower soon to present better buying opportunity. I've attached graphs that I hope will show what I'm looking at. I'm targeting the I-fund for $18.75 and will exit following weakness. The S-fund, I'm targeting $17.6 and will exit following weakness. Regardless, a sharp downward move in either fund will also cause me to bail to G.
If you do the math, the upward for S is about 1.5% and for I is about 0.8%. I'm staying heavier in the I-fund because I think the dollar is set for a drop which could really push I-fund as high as $19 which would be a 2% gain over current level.
The S-fund currently has room to move upward in addition to the I-fund. In fact the S-fund may even have a little more room to go up. I'm staying away from the C-fund since it is at the upper end of the trading range. It may go higher but should head lower soon to present better buying opportunity. I've attached graphs that I hope will show what I'm looking at. I'm targeting the I-fund for $18.75 and will exit following weakness. The S-fund, I'm targeting $17.6 and will exit following weakness. Regardless, a sharp downward move in either fund will also cause me to bail to G.
If you do the math, the upward for S is about 1.5% and for I is about 0.8%. I'm staying heavier in the I-fund because I think the dollar is set for a drop which could really push I-fund as high as $19 which would be a 2% gain over current level.
FundSurfer
Well-known member
My method...
I don't look at "overbought" or "oversold"as Tom talks about it. I look at the fact that a fund will cycle up and down through a trading range. Looking at the cycle, when the chart gets toward the top of the range as it is with the C-fund currently, I'd consider that risky territory. Funds do break out of trading ranges so you have to be careful. In the case of C-fund, if I was in the fund I would ride the fund up and look for weakness as an indicator to bail out to G. I also look for strong upward for multiple days as another signal. I might get in at that point depending on where the other funds were. The same can be true of going down. A couple strong days down and I'll bail to G quickly. Once we break out of the trend, I'll watch for the next trend to form.
I don't look at "overbought" or "oversold"as Tom talks about it. I look at the fact that a fund will cycle up and down through a trading range. Looking at the cycle, when the chart gets toward the top of the range as it is with the C-fund currently, I'd consider that risky territory. Funds do break out of trading ranges so you have to be careful. In the case of C-fund, if I was in the fund I would ride the fund up and look for weakness as an indicator to bail out to G. I also look for strong upward for multiple days as another signal. I might get in at that point depending on where the other funds were. The same can be true of going down. A couple strong days down and I'll bail to G quickly. Once we break out of the trend, I'll watch for the next trend to form.
FundSurfer
Well-known member
Big downer...
Todays big move down in S-fund is strike one. Another move down tommorrow and I'll bail. I did not want to bail today and miss a bounce back up. My system calls for multiple days weakness, although today looks to be a major move.
I-fund looks mixed because international stocks are down but the dollar looks to also be falling. Those could end up cancelling each other out. Tommorrow could be very good for the I-fund if dollar continues to fall and international stocks bounce.
I'm staying put at 40% S and 60% I.
Todays big move down in S-fund is strike one. Another move down tommorrow and I'll bail. I did not want to bail today and miss a bounce back up. My system calls for multiple days weakness, although today looks to be a major move.
I-fund looks mixed because international stocks are down but the dollar looks to also be falling. Those could end up cancelling each other out. Tommorrow could be very good for the I-fund if dollar continues to fall and international stocks bounce.
I'm staying put at 40% S and 60% I.
FundSurfer
Well-known member
I-fund reached the target
I-fund reached the target I was shooting for just prior to drop yesterday. Looks like it might get back there today. Dollar direction isn't clear so I'm moving to safety of G with my I-funds. The S-fund still has room to go but I'm still watching very closely. If it closes down today or tommorrow, I'll assume dead cat bounce and bail out of it as well. I stuck 10% in C fund because I keep hearing how under valued the S&P is from different areas and it has a fairly steady trend going. I'm watching it closely as well since it could easily go above it's trading cycle and be in uncharted territory.
50% G 10%C 40% S
I-fund reached the target I was shooting for just prior to drop yesterday. Looks like it might get back there today. Dollar direction isn't clear so I'm moving to safety of G with my I-funds. The S-fund still has room to go but I'm still watching very closely. If it closes down today or tommorrow, I'll assume dead cat bounce and bail out of it as well. I stuck 10% in C fund because I keep hearing how under valued the S&P is from different areas and it has a fairly steady trend going. I'm watching it closely as well since it could easily go above it's trading cycle and be in uncharted territory.
50% G 10%C 40% S
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