FundSurfer account talk

[FundSurfer]

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Today I'm 50% G, 40% C, 5% S, and 5% I.

(I was 77% C, 11.5% S, 11.5% I since end of June and actually made this switch 9/20, but for purposes of tracking and not Monday Quarterbacking I'll track my gains/loss from today forward. I wish I'd gone 100% G like so many others but I wasn't totally confident. I guess more time will help my comfort level. So far I've done well with just a peaks and valleys long term type approach. It hasn't worked well in this choppy market and I'm moving toward being more aggressive.)

 

[namor]

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Thanks for the plug.

I hope nobody took my advice in October. That second week made the whole month like trying to climb out of the Grand Canyon. But, luckily, the market never stops trading, we will always have next week to look forward to.

Good luck in November.

 

[FundSurfer]

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Yeah you got caught in a bad place for 3-4 days and it killed your month. Have you managed to bail yourself out? I haven't had time to enter in moves to see where everyone is for the month.

 

[FundSurfer]

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Moved to 30%G, 30% C, 30% S. The I fund had a couple down days after a long run up, time for me to bail. I'll get back in fairly quickly once this trend ends. I'll probably miss a bounce but I'm sticking to what my system is telling me.... now I'll sound like Milk_Man.

 

[Guest]

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FundSurfer wrote:

Moved to 30%G, 30% C, 30% S. The I fund had a couple down days after a long run up, time for me to bail. I'll get back in fairly quickly once this trend ends. I'll probably miss a bounce but I'm sticking to what my system is telling me.... now I'll sound like Milk_Man.

Is that a bad thing? :shock:It is a variation of my old system right?

Good luck,

M_M

 

[Guest]

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FundSurfer wrote:

Moved to 30%G, 30% C, 30% S. The I fund had a couple down days after a long run up, time for me to bail. I'll get back in fairly quickly once this trend ends. I'll probably miss a bounce but I'm sticking to what my system is telling me.... now I'll sound like Milk_Man.

Is that a bad thing? :shock:It is a variation of my old system right?

Good luck,

M_M

 

[FundSurfer]

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Yes, variation on your old system. No I don't think it is a bad thing, but I did think it was funny when I wrote it. :>

 

[FundSurfer]

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Just pulled the trigger to go to 100%S. My justification is that S fund looks like it is going to have a big down day today. I think that this is too early in the month for a market slide to begin. I think a bounce will occur tommorrow and that the biggest bounce will be S fund. A drop of greater than 1% in a Bull market gives my indicators a buy. Right now S is down >1%. Don't know if it will hold for the day.

I've seen Namor do this on many occasions and be a winner (a couple losers but mainly winners).

 

[puertorico]

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agree tomorrow a good rally I bet on S too .
after a sell off = rally...:^

 

[retiredcg]

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Fundsurfer -

What is you prognostication for the I fund over the next day or so? Is it common for the EAFE to follow the same trend as the S - generally? I took a quick glance over the last year or so at the end of month/beginning of month periods. I see that with the exception of one month, the I fund showed a fair gain each time... I moved my remaining 20G into the I for the next few days... I'm now 25C, 25S and 50I.

I've been buy and hold for some time, but I'd like to do some more frequent moves...

Jim

 

[FundSurfer]

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The dollar is up, thus the I-fund is down. Rumors about Japan trying to make moves to stabilize the dollar would act to strenghten dollar (or at least slow decline) adds to much chance for error for me. I will add that those who have gambled on the I-fund have been well rewarded of late. I like a little more confidence in my 'bets'. I have mixed feelings about I-fund thus I'm staying away. I will say that today is a good day to buy Ifor long term hold though.

 

[cowboy]

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retiredcg wrote:

Fundsurfer -

What is you prognostication for the I fund over the next day or so? Is it common for the EAFE to follow the same trend as the S - generally? I took a quick glance over the last year or so at the end of month/beginning of month periods. I see that with the exception of one month, the I fund showed a fair gain each time... I moved my remaining 20G into the I for the next few days... I'm now 25C, 25S and 50I.

I've been buy and hold for some time, but I'd like to do some more frequent moves...

Jim

My thought is the I fund will drop tomorrow and maybe even the S & C funds also as were at the top of the hill and now we will be going down until it hits the new support level. Good luck everyone!

 

[Safetyguy]

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cowboy wrote:

My thought is the I fund will drop tomorrow and maybe even the S & C funds also as were at the top of the hill and now we will be going down until it hits the new support level. Good luck everyone!

I think what Fundsurfer is trying to do is to catch the "chop" which will occur whether or not the overall trend is upward or downward. The theory is to buy when the price dips and sell when it is high. (Namor hit a good one in December.)

For instance let's say it is a downward trend as Cowboy assumes -- it still doesn't matter. There will be someonewho will snap up the "bargain" on day 2AFTER a big price drop on day 1. This will bring the price up (but maybe not has high as it was on day 1.)This is why the chart lines wiggle.

In this particular case, if Fundsurfer buys S on Day 1 at 98.42% (a decline of 1.58%) of the price that existed the trading day before AND it goes up 1% on Day 2, he made 1% on his money. This is the whole theory on day trading.

 

[cowboy]

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Safetyguy wrote:

cowboy wrote:

My thought is the I fund will drop tomorrow and maybe even the S & C funds also as were at the top of the hill and now we will be going down until it hits the new support level. Good luck everyone!

I think what Fundsurfer is trying to do is to catch the "chop" which will occur whether or not the overall trend is upward or downward. The theory is to buy when the price dips and sell when it is high. (Namor hit a good one in December.)

For instance let's say it is a downward trend as Cowboy assumes -- it still doesn't matter. There will be someonewho will snap up the "bargain" on day 2AFTER a big price drop on day 1. This will bring the price up (but maybe not has high as it was on day 1.)This is why the chart lines wiggle.

In this particular case, if Fundsurfer buys S on Day 1 at 98.42% (a decline of 1.58%) of the price that existed the trading day before AND it goes up 1% on Day 2, he made 1% on his money. This is the whole theory on day trading.

Yes, I know what Fundsurfer is doing. I have done this myself all year long as so many others are doing. I was going to do the same thing today as I pulled out last Wednesday and went 100% F but then I got to thinking about it and it may be a day or two of down before we hit a support. My prognosis was for the I fund not in regard to what Fundsurfer was doing. Patients may be a vertue here for a couple of days but what is going to happen is anybodys guess. Fundsurfer's move was a good one if your playing daily. I would play it short though. This is just my thought. If it drops again tomorrow I may stick some in but I may wait for the F fund to hit $10.45 or better before I make that leap. If S&C go up tomorrow then I will just wait and watch.

 

[cowboy]

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The market is red now guys, what is the move? This is a short move by Fundsurfer what will he do stick or jump? I have played the dips all year and if you get a dip on the uphill climb it most always pays. On the downhill descent it is less likely and much more risky. I still believe we need to see some support somewhere first. Tom your a good chart reader give me a possible support number, please! If S drops the C will fall but maybe not as much. It may be that C may go up tomorrow as it is lagging behind in my opinion. I fund will go down today and possibly stabilize tomorrow. I may make a move today! I believe I will make a 50% S & 50% C move today as there may be support now and the S has dropped over 2 %. I fund will possibly go down again tomorrow. I will try this bounce and hope it works!:^

 

[Mike]

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My analysis in brief:

C: $11.25 / S $11.87 / I $12.80 <- the bottom on August 12th

C: $12.93 / S $14.75 / I $15.47* <- the high on December 30th (I know, the I went up one more penny but I'm trying this for simplicity's sake)

C: +$1.68 / S: +$2.88 / I: +$2.67* <- trough to peak

Yesterday, we lost $0.10 (C), $0.23 (S), and $0.07 (I). Things aren't going well today, either. C will probably lose another $0.10, S another $0.15, and I $0.20 based on the strength of the dollar. This translates into 10-15% losses off the highs... in two days... in spite of very strong seasonality data (ahem, remember July?). I have no crystal ball, I'm not clairvoyant, but I can tell you that this is the "breather" the market has been looking for... it'll probably scare a lot of those bullish people back into the bear camp (particularly the odd lot traders), and that is a very good thing.

 

[cowboy]

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MMmmm! The markets fell for a second straight day. It has been a long time since we seen this possibly July like Mike says. C -1.98% S -3.28% and I -1.38% in the last 2 days. It only took 2 days to lose most all of December profits. :shock:

I went 50% C & 50% S today. I am hoping for some support tomorrow. I am thinking I fund may have more to lose here. It is usually last to follow and I look for it to maybe fall another 1% or more tomorrow or shortly. I'm thinking I fund down to possibly $14.90. If C & S recover then it may take them several days to go up. If the C&S go up and I fund down I may get into the I fund again. I am thinking this as a short term play right at the moment. I have jumped too quickly before and who knows I may be early again. If this market doesn't cooperate I will bail and watch again.

Good luck everyone!

 

[cowboy]

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I am going 100% S today as the C fund is holding and S is dropping at this time and I want to be fully invested in S in case of a rally if not then I will pull out possibly or then go to I fund.

 

[Mike]

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Update on the prices / percentage of gain off August lows given back:

The bottom fell out of the S fund - $0.69 off the high (23.95% of gains lost).

C fund is $0.32 off its high (19.05% of gains given back).

I fund is $0.32 off its high (11.99%).

I'm hoping the pullback ends at 25%... that should scare enough people out.

The I fund is holding up better than the C, which is surprising.

 

[FundSurfer]

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Well I guess I got lucky??? Maybe... day isn't over yet. My trade did not go through yesterday. I knew I was close to the deadline when I made the switch. I'm still 100% S at this point and have to decide if I will cancel or make a switch.